Some scientific reports have conceptualised climate change and its related impacts—though in a quite technical manner, as can be seen in the various technical reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (2001 & 2007); the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA (2007); the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UN-ISDR (2008) and the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change, UNFCCC. According to IPCC (2007), climate change is an alteration in the
atmospheric climate over several years, which can either occur naturally or as induced by human activities, the latter also sometimes referred to as ‘anthropogenic factors. The UNFCCC (1992, p.7) defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and which is in addition to natural climate variability, observed over comparable periods” (UNFCCC, 1992:
7). As mentioned earlier, though these definitions have reflected the physical and built environment aspects of climate change, they fail to also reflect the socio-economic and socio- political information relevant to understanding climate change and its related impacts. The social aspect of vulnerability to climate change disasters will be elaborated on in the latter part of this study. For now, what these reports seem to ignore is the aspect of the ‘how’ of climate change causality. A report by the National Aeronautics and Space Association, NASA, fills this lacuna.
According to NOAA (2019), recent climate change records show the highest seasonal peak recorded at any point in millions of years. This recent drastic change in the climate is linked to the increase in human activities (both domestic and industrial) that emit GHG into the atmosphere in the recent era (World Meteorological Organisation, 2017; IPCC, 2012). Human- induced factors are said to take primacy over naturally induced climate variability (Trenberth, 2003; Barnet et al 2005; Alley et al 2003).
Human-induced climate change has been linked to a historical quest by humans to exploit their environment, particularly since the industrial revolution era (see Le Treut et al 2007, p.95). A report from the UK parliament also notes that human activities have contributed about 40%
more CO2 into the atmosphere compared with the pre-industrial revolution era (UK Parliament, 2011). However, this does not mean that human activities that deteriorate the condition of the atmosphere were absent before the industrial era. For instance, technical reports by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA (2019) states that natural factors are also responsible for alterations in the earth’s climate. Also, according to Le Treut et al (2007, p.97), natural factors such as “major volcanic eruptions (which) can cause a drop in mean global surface temperature of about half a degree celsius that can last for months or even years”. These two assertions imply that before the rise of industrial activities, natural factors were contributing, though in relatively lower level, to changing climate.
Literary reports starkly demonstrate that the levels of anthropogenic activities which induce climate change vary across the different regions of the world, with the highest levels being
experienced in the industrialised nations (UNFCCC, 2007). However, according to UNFCCC (2007), though industrialised nations contribute greater percentage to climate change, developing nations such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa, Small Island States, suffer the most significant catastrophic impacts caused by the changing climate. Moreover, Theisen, Buhaug
& Gleditsch (2008) maintain that the hostile impacts of climate change destabilise not only ecological systems, but also social systems and processes, and these effects are felt in different degrees across different regions of the world, depending on the region’s adaptive capacity.
Closer to home, at the municipal level, climate change poses a significant threat to the eThekwini municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The effects range from social, economic, and political challenges, amongst others. A high-level scientific study commissioned in 2004 to look into the possible localised impacts of climate change in the Durban14 area indicated that the area is likely to experience a temperature rise that would lead to heat waves, heavy rainfalls, floods, or more extended dry periods and sea-level rise.
According to an assessment by the eThekwini municipality (2007) the impacts caused by these changes are likely to lead to the following conditions:
• Increased health issues due to excessive heat waves
• Decreased water availability in cities like Inanda and Midmar, due to irregular rainfall and increased evaporation due to excessive heat
• Decreased agricultural productivity due to high temperature, decrease water availability, and the washing away of topsoil
• Increased flooding due to more intense rainfall
• Loss of biodiversity due to high temperature, erosion, floods, loss of indigenous specie and increase invasive alien specie
• Damage to public and private infrastructures and residences due to sea-level rise and flooding (eThekwini Municipality, 2007, p.13).
More importantly, the Commission recommended that steps need to be taken by the national, regional, and municipal governments to contain these threats to climate change. Individuals should adhere to the use of drought-resistant crops, and hospitals and other health institutions need to prepare for climate-related health problems. More importantly, individuals and government should stop building infrastructures vulnerable to flood plains and coastal areas
14 Both ‘eThekwini’ and ‘Durban’ represent the same geographical entity and are therefore, used interchangeably in this study.
(eThekwini municipality 2007, p.15). What this means, in other words, is that it is necessary to reduce the vulnerability of the people affected by climate change. Reducing vulnerability is equivalent to increasing adaptive capacity. The following discussion will present further explanation of the concept of adaptive capacity.