• Tidak ada hasil yang ditemukan

Analysis of longitudinal binary data : an application to a disease process.

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2023

Membagikan "Analysis of longitudinal binary data : an application to a disease process."

Copied!
449
0
0

Teks penuh

The analysis of longitudinal binary data can be performed using any of the three families of models, namely marginal, random effects, and conditional models. The results of the current work are consistent and consistent with those of White et al.

Introduction

Profile plots

It is clear from the profile graphs in Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2 that many of the children remained uninfected for most of the study time during which they were followed. The x-axis shows the child's visit number, while the y-axis shows the child's disease status.

Figure 2.1: A sample of profile plots.
Figure 2.1: A sample of profile plots.

Overall transitions

Visits by week

  • Visits by month
  • Individual transition matrices
  • Visits
  • Age at the first visit

The probability of being in the infected state and uninfected state was calculated during each month. From the graphs, it is clear that the probability of being in the infected state peaks in months 1-3 and 9-11.

Table 2.3: Visits by week for being in the infected and uninfected states
Table 2.3: Visits by week for being in the infected and uninfected states

Missingness

If the deficiency does not depend on the values ​​of data Y, missing or observed, i.e. if. In both of these examples, the actual variables for which data are missing are not the cause of the incomplete data.

Conclusion

In Chapter 4 the problem is partly addressed through the use of Weighted Generalized Estimating Equations (WGEE).

Introduction

The corresponding model required for the data falls into the general class of models for discrete (non-Gaussian) repeated data. However, because of the similarities and dissimilarities between models for these types of data and those for repeated continuous data, this chapter will present an overview of methods applicable to linear mixed models for continuous longitudinal data (assumed to be Gaussian).

A 2-stage model formulation of the linear mixed modelmixed model

Here, Zi is the anni × q matrix of known covariates and βi is the q-dimensional vector of person-specific regression coefficients. and often Σi =σ2Ini, implying that the Yij observations are uncorrelated. Yi =Xiβ+Zibi+i (3.3) where bi ∼ N(0, G) denotes the individual random effects assumed to be normally distributed with mean vector zero and variance matrix G .

Hierarchical versus Marginal Model

The implied marginal mean structure is a linear mean evolution in each group with equal mean intercepts but different mean slopes. Note that the variance-covariance matrix for (b1i, b2i, b3i) is now a 3×3 matrix with elementsgklwherel, k= 1,2,3 and the implied variance function is now a fourth-order polynomial over time.

A model for the residual covariance struc- tureture

  • The mean structure

For balanced data, means can be calculated for each occasion separately and standard errors for the means can be calculated. For example, given the gender status of children affected by RSV, weekly and monthly prevalence for each gender can be constructed.

The variance structure

  • The semi-variogram
  • Test for model extension

For unbalanced data, the time scale can be discretized and averaging within intervals can be easily calculated. This means that the total variability in the data (assuming it is constant) can be estimated from:

Estimation of the marginal model

  • Maximum likelihood estimation (ML) of the vari- ance componentsance components
  • Restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML)
  • REML estimation for the linear mixed model
  • Fitting Linear Mixed Models

Using a similar approach as in the simple case, the data can be transformed orthogonal to X so that. Some frequently used covariance structures available in the RANDOM and PEATED statements include: Unstructured (type=UN),.

Inference for the marginal model

  • Approximate Wald test
  • Approximate t-test and F-test
  • Robust Inference
  • Likelihood ratio test

The option "chisq" in the CONTRAST statement is required to obtain a Wald test. Therefore, to be unbiased, it is only sufficient that the average of the response is specified correctly. Strong inference for the fixed effects can be obtained by adding the option 'empirical' in the PROC MIXED statement in SAS namely.

Inference for variance components

  • Approximate Wald test
  • The likelihood ratio test for tests on variance componentscomponents
  • Marginal testing for the need of random effects

It should be noted that LR tests for mean structure are not valid under REML. The quality of the normal approximation for the ML and REML estimators strongly depends on the true value of α. They have been able to show that the asymptotic null distribution for the likelihood ratio test statistic is often a mixture of chi-square distributions rather than a single chi-square distribution.

Information Criteria

This idea can be extended more generally to the case of needing q versus q+k random effects requiring a mixture of χ2q and χ2q+k with equal weights of 0.5. For comparing models with different mean structures, the information criteria should be based on ML rather than REML, as otherwise the likelihood values ​​would be based on different sets of error contrasts and would therefore no longer be comparable. . It should be noted that different 'ic' may select or lead to different non-overlapping patterns.

Inference for random effects

  • Empirical Bayes Inference
  • Best Linear Unbiased Prediction
  • Shrinkage estimators
  • The random-intercepts model revisited
  • The normality assumption for Random Effects
  • The heterogeneity model
  • Power analyses under the linear mixed model

A possible extension of the linear mixed model is to assume a finite mixture as a random effects distribution. Below is an overview of the steps involved in calculating the power of the test. This calculated F-value and the associated numbers of degrees of freedom can be saved and used later for the calculation of the power of 6.

Conclusion

The analysis of unbalanced data is a natural extension of the analysis of balanced data in the mixed model framework;. The normality assumption covered in this chapter is a special case of the generalized linear modeling approach for longitudinal data. (McCullagh and Nelder, 1989; Lee, Nelder and Pawitan, 2006; Verbeke and Molenberghs, 2005 and Molenberghs and Verbeke, 2006) . More importantly, departures from the current classical linear mixed model will be crucial in the present work.

Introduction

  • The Exponential Family
  • Some illustrations

Since the Bernoulli density is part of the exponential family, its p.d.f can be written as The function ln[1−ππ] is called the link function in the context of generalized linear models. If the function Φ−1(π) is used where Φ is the standard normal distribution function, then we have the probit link function Poisson model for counts.

The Generalized Linear Model

Thus, the natural parameter is θ= ln (µ), the scale parameter is φ=1, and the variance function is υ(µ) =µ. Assume that we have independent response variables Y1, Y2, .., YN, which are assumed to have the same density f(y|θ, ψ) from the exponential family with E[Yi] =µi, but are allowed for all observations different natural parameters θi. The meanµi is to be modeled with respect to the covariate values ​​and it is assumed that η(µi) =x0iβ for a known link function η(.) and the p-dimensional vector β is a vector of fixed unknown regression coefficients.

Extending the examples to Generalized linear modelslinear models

Stacking all the N row vectors xi into one matrix X gives the known design matrix for the data of dimension N ×(p+ 1). Alternatively to the probit link, one uses the model Φ−1(πi) = x0iβ so that πi = Φ(xiβ), where Φ denotes the distribution function of a standard normal random variable. The logarithm is the natural link function, which leads to the classical Poisson regression model Yi ∼Poisson(µi) with ln (µi) = x0iβ.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation and In- ferenceference

Once ML estimates have been obtained, classical inference based on three equivalent asymptotic methods based on asymptotic likelihood theory, namely Wald-type tests, likelihood ratio tests, and score tests, can be used. More details on estimation and inference in generalized linear models can be found in McCullagh and Nelder (1989) and more recent references such as Molenberghs and Verbeke (2005) and Lee, Nelder and Pawitan (2006). The vector bi denotes a vector of subject-specific random effects and zij0 is the corresponding vector of covariates.

Longitudinal Generalized Linear Models

  • Marginal Models

Several methods are applicable in fitting marginal models for both non-probable and probable models. In the class of non-probability methods, Koch et al. 1975) introduced the Empirical Generalized Least Squares Method (EGLS). In the class of probability methods, Ashford and Sowden (1970) proposed the use of the Multivariate probit model.

Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE)

  • Introduction
  • Large Sample Properties
  • The Working Correlation Matrix
  • Estimation of the Working Correlation Matrix
  • Fitting GEE

However, the moment-based estimates of the working correlation structure have raised doubts about efficiency. Crowder (1995) indicated that the first-order GEE solution for β does not exist under certain forms of severe misspecification of the working correlation structure. The equations are obtained by differentiating the Cholesky decomposition of the working correlation or as the scoring equations for decoupled Gaussian pseudo-likelihood.

Some developmental notes on GEE over timetime

  • Application of fitting GEE models to the RSV data setdata set

They state that under GEE, correct specification of the variance function can improve estimation performance even when the correlation structure is misspecified. The model-based estimation results and standard errors do not differ greatly among the three correlation structures. The magnitude of the estimates does not differ much from one another in the three correlation structures.

Table 4.1: Model based standard errors and estimates GEE
Table 4.1: Model based standard errors and estimates GEE

Weighted Generalized Estimating Equa- tions (WGEE)

The empirically based estimates in Table 4.6 show that only 'prev' and 'actipass' are significant in Tables 4.5 and 4.6 show that the model-based parameter estimates and standard errors for WGEE are not significantly different from each other across the three correlation structures. The results also show that the standard errors of the parameter estimates for WGEE are larger than those for GEE.

Table 4.5: Model based standard errors and estimates for WGEE
Table 4.5: Model based standard errors and estimates for WGEE

Conclusion

Introduction

Definition: A factor in a model is random if its levels consist of a random sample from a population of all possible levels. A model is then a random effects model if all factors in the treatment structure are random effects. A model is then a fixed effects model if all factors in the treatment structure are fixed effects.

The Generalized Linear Mixed Model

  • Model Formulation
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Estimation based on the approximation of the integrandintegrand
  • Estimation based on the approximation of the data
  • Some notes about the PQL and MQL methods
  • The methods of Schall and Breslow and Clayton
  • Estimation approaches by Schall and by Breslow and Claytonand Clayton
  • Inference for Generalized Linear Mixed Models
  • Remarks on the problem of Bias in Generalized Linear ModelsLinear Models
  • Estimation based on the approximation of the integralintegral
  • A note on the inference on the fixed and ran- dom effects in GLMMs

Neglecting the random effects of u gives a linear predictor of Xβ on the scale of the link function. Predicted mean values ​​are based on parameter estimates in the model y = Xβ + Zu + e. One of the main disadvantages of Gaussian quadrature is highlighted in the case of univariate integration, i.e.

Software for Generalized Linear Mixed ModelsModels

  • SAS GLIMMIX for Quasi-likelohood
  • The NLMIXED Procedure for Numercial Quadra- tureture
  • The Random Intercept Model
  • Generalized Linear Mixed Model for Counts
  • Generalized Linear Mixed Model for a Binary ResponseResponse

The PARMS statement is used to specify initial values ​​for all parameters in the model. The MODEL statement is used to determine the conditional distribution of data given random effects. The repeated measures marginal covariance pattern is shown in the following composite symmetry pattern.

Analysis and Application to the RSV data

  • Analysis and Application to the RSV data using Proc GLIMMIX in SASProc GLIMMIX in SAS
  • Adaptive and Non-adaptive Gaussian Quadra- tureture

Only the results reported by the Schall (1991) method are reported in Tables 5.5 and 5.6 below since the Breslow and Clayton (1993) model gave similar results. The fixed effects solution for all the different covariance structure models is summarized in Tables 5.13 and 5.14. Once again the estimates of the random intercepts model are very similar to those of the random effects estimates.

Table 5.1: Wald tests by adding terms sequentially to the model
Table 5.1: Wald tests by adding terms sequentially to the model

Conclusion

There are significant differences in the 'age 5 versus age 12' and 'age 7 versus age 12' groups at the 5% level.

Introduction

The Cox Model

Diggle et al (2002, p) criticized conditional models because the interpretation of a fixed-effect parameter, such as the development or treatment effect, of one response is conditioned by the responses of other responses for the same subject, the outcomes of other subjects, and the number of repeated measures.On the other hand conditional models have received some of their popularity due to their mathematical convenience, such as the log-linear model discussed above. Fitzmaurice, Laird, and Tosteson (1996) take a slightly different approach, but it is based on an exponential model.

Transition Models

Because of the popularity of marginal and random effects models, conditional models have not received widespread attention. Molenberghs and Ryan (1999) and Aerts et al. (2002) discuss the problem in detail and in detail, in the context of exchangeable binary data, the advantages of conditional models and show with great care how the disadvantages can be overcome for their institution. They constructed the joint distribution for clustered multivariate binary outcomes based on the multivariate exponential family model.

Transition Models for outcomes of a gen- eral typeeral type

If there are no covariates in this model, these transition probabilities would be constant across the population. When there are only time-independent covariates, these transition probabilities vary in a simple way with the level of the covariate.

A Transition Model for the RSV data

Yij−1} represents the previous responses for the ith subject, µcij = E(Yij|Hij) and let vcij = var(Yij|Hij) be the conditional mean and variance of Yij given previous responses and the explanatory variables . Therefore, the transition model expresses the conditional mean as a function of both covariates xij and of the previous responses Yij−1,. The GLM in Eq.(6.8) only specifies the conditional distribution f(yij|Hij), while the probability of the first q observations f(yi1, . . . , yiq) is not specified directly.

Software for fitting Conditional Models in SASin SAS

Fitting Conditional Models in SAS to the RSV dataRSV data

2|2/(1−P, which implies that the probability of a child becoming infected if his/her previous condition was not infected is approximately 0.3 times greater than that of a child whose previous condition was infected and remains infected . 2|1/(1−P This implies that the probability of a child becoming infected if his/her previous state was infected is approximately 3.5 times greater than that of a child whose previous state is not infected becoming infected. infected if his/her previous two-step state was not infected is about 0.5 times more than a child whose previous state is infected and remains infected.

Table 6.1: Type III Effects for first, second, third order, first and second and full model
Table 6.1: Type III Effects for first, second, third order, first and second and full model

Conclusion

First order Second order Third order Third order 1,2 1,2,3 Effect comparison Rating Rating Rating Rating Rating.

Table 6.3: Parameter estimates for first, second and third order models
Table 6.3: Parameter estimates for first, second and third order models

Gambar

Figure 2.1: A sample of profile plots.
Figure 2.2: Overall profile and a sample of 10 profile plots.
Table 2.3: Visits by week for being in the infected and uninfected states
Table 2.4: The probability of being in the infected and uninfected states over time in months
+7

Referensi

Dokumen terkait

 Jl. The data used comes from the publications of BPS-Statistics Indonesia. The analysis model used is panel data regression analysis. Of the three panel models tested

Extensive experiments show that, typically, the impact of the entrance rate and the three exit rates on the expected overall profit is as shown in Fig.. In general, it is drawn thatJis