Consultative Workshop on Shale Gas Science Action Plan for South Africa [available online] DOI. The Parliament of South Africa passed the South African Academy of Sciences Act (No. 67 of 2001), which came into force on 15 May 2002. This made ASSAf the only academy of sciences in South Africa officially recognized by the government and representing the country in the international community of academies of sciences and other places.
This report reflects the proceedings of the Consultative Workshop on the Shale Gas Science Action Plan for South Africa, held on 14 – 15 March 2019 in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa, unless otherwise stated.
INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
Prior to the ASSAf study, reports of shale gas potential in the Karoo region were estimated at between 19 and 23 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The research results would be used to strengthen policymaking, minimize negative environmental impacts and support the emergence of a shale gas industry. To some extent, the shale gas discussion has been overtaken by the recent discovery of a fairly large gas reserve offshore.
PetroSA fully supported the SAP for shale gas and of the view that a significant shale gas resource would be a game changer in the government's efforts to achieve its transformation agenda by providing cleaner energy solutions to support the nation's future economy.
SYNTHESIS OF TECHNICAL WORK DONE IN SOUTH AFRICA (KAROO)
Development of an internal integrated workflow to assess the economic and commercial feasibility of future shale gas extraction ventures. The KDD program was designed to study the geological impacts of potential shale gas exploration in the Karoo. Questioning the existence of an economically viable shale gas resource in the Southern Main Karoo Basin based on results from the Center for Integrated Minerals and Energy Research (CIMERA)-Karoo Research Initiative (KARIN) drilling project (Prof. Nic Beukes, University of Johannesburg).
In the last eight years or so there have been discussions, environmental impact assessments and many reports about shale gas in South Africa. The assumption remained that South Africa has an economic resource of shale gas and thus should prepare for the development of this resource. It concluded that shale gas potential may be much lower than originally estimated (perhaps around 13 Tcf), noting that sweet spots were not targeted and that small natural gas resources in the Karoo were possible.
This raised the relevant and important question of whether South Africa has an economically viable shale gas resource. Unconventional Shale Gas Development with Possible Technically Recoverable Quantities in the Karoo Basin (Prof Maarten de Wit, Nelson Mandela University (NMU)). If a shale gas industry develops in South Africa, the South African people will develop the relevant skills and knowledge.
The guidance that emerged from the process was that scientific evidence was needed to ensure that shale gas was properly regulated. PASA would like to see the development of the shale gas industry, but concerns about the need for scientific evidence need to be addressed.
SHALE GAS PRE-PRODUCTION
It is clear that these must be connected, especially the test hydraulics, which must be connected to be a production phase, but before the actual production. At the same time, the receiving environment must be able to handle this information. There is a tendency to brush off the other disciplines as obstacles to be circumvented.
Somila Xosa (DST): The focus of this workshop is on one of a number of focal areas identified in SAP. This focal area (exploration, development and production technology) is one of the areas in which South Africa needs to ensure that it has sufficient/up-to-date knowledge and skills. Cyril O'Connor (ASSAf/SAAE): How much of the fundamental research is done in real time in the field and how much is done in the lab with feedback to the operator about what's happening during the hydraulic fracturing process.
We start with an internet search to get general information about what has been done in the specific area. In the US, the location of almost all unconventional resources is very well established. There should be a seismic network and every region should be investigated for earthquakes.
We try to understand everything and model each fracture network for each well and include some predictive statistical models to be able to generate a larger scale and have a better overall understanding of the basin. It is important to understand the fracture network and the heterogeneity and anisotropy in the reservoir before applying other things.
RESERVOIR ENGINEERING ASPECT OF UNCONVENTIONAL RESERVOIRS
Mike Shand (Aurecon): If the regulations specify that the information obtained by the developer must be made available to the authority. Niall Kramer (SAOGA): Is there any experience in the US of collaborative education engagement through industry and government discussions with communities. This involved large operations and the significant increase in shale resource development brought with it increased impacts due to the sheer number of wells, surface disturbance, service intensity, truck traffic, resources required, water produced, air emissions and noise.
The current technology can play a role in reducing the impact and should be developed where necessary to help reduce potential negative impacts. Long horizontal wells have proven to be the better option in environmentally sensitive areas where the oil was otherwise inaccessible. Regarding the properties of gas shale, it was important to note that although the production well life was thought to be short (it was not yet fully established), the reservoir pressure is currently very difficult to determine and it had to be assumed that gas shale is heterogeneous.
What is your advice to the team working on SAP in terms of developing this discipline and building the necessary capability. Answer, Fikri Kuchuk: I notice that geoscience, especially reservoir engineering, is weak in the shale gas discussion. Cyril O'Connor (ASSAf/SAAE): A consultant contacted as part of the study emphasized the importance of developing a field development model, but I wondered how.
What needs to be done to find out how much gas there is in the Beaufort West region, for example. Please clarify your position on the need for fracking to be done as part of the research phase.
Response, Fikri Kuchuk: In many shale formations or reservoirs, one out of three wells is productive. In any shale development, especially when heterogeneity and fractures are expected, horizontal wells are essential. Advances in reducing water use have been made in chemistry and the work is ongoing.
Establishing a monitoring committee to ensure comprehensive and coordinated addition of the regulatory framework and oversight of operations. To add to the current regulatory framework and establish appropriate regulations, controls and coordination systems. The Petroleum Exploration and Production Regulations were approved and promulgated in 2015, but were challenged on technical and administrative grounds.
The Petroleum Exploration and Production Regulations (2015) included provisions for the protection and coexistence of SKA and shale gas development. A Licensing Subcommittee has been established to take into account protection and coexistence with the SKA, consisting of DMR, DST and PASA. DST commissioned ASSAf to conduct an assessment of South Africa's technical readiness to support the shale gas industry.
The DMR initiated the process of delinking the petroleum provisions from the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA) and developed a petroleum bill that addressed specific issues related to the petroleum sector and provided the necessary legislative certainty. In addition, a moratorium on the issuance of new permits until the publication of a notice in the Official Gazette was introduced for a more strategic application system by tender in certain areas.
ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSIONS
The research identified key areas of focus that needed to be addressed and this led to the development of the PSA. Review current SAP status as it relates to Flag 1 (geology, gas resources, seismic, research technology/engineering and EMI). One of the activities in our research group is in our reflection seismic research center.
For example, we work on datasets from the Orange River Basin and the Zululand Basin, and mentor students from the University of the Western Cape and staff from organizations such as PetroSA. The scope of the study is the entire value chain and it is not limited to South Africa. Getting the drill right and doing it safely is very important to gain the public's trust.
Part of the basic research is about how to get people to trust each other. As for the tasks to be carried out, it is not clear whether these are the responsibility of science or industry. Each of the six flagships involved a government department, ensuring a division of responsibilities among the key departments.
The coordination group under the auspices of SAP will be tasked with carrying out this exercise, possibly within six months, but a maximum of 12 months. Cyril O'Connor (ASSAf/SAAE): The ASSAf report only briefly touched on the regulatory area, which is very important in the implementation of SAP. DMR and HFMC under its leadership, for their governance and guidance, as well as for ensuring that the entire government came together for the benefit of the country.
Mokone Roberts Joornaalii Annisaa Afrikaa Kibbaa Isteefanii Sheiber-Enslin Yuunivarsiitii Witwatersrand Boob Scholes Yuunivarsiitii Witwatersrand.
