First, the study presents a new scenario-based multi-objective optimization framework based on the enhanced Chebychev goal programming (GP) technique coupled with a value function for analyzing a decision environment underlying energy choice among low-income households in isolated rural areas and informal areas. urban settlements in South Africa. SELECTING A PORTFOLIO OF ENERGY SUPPLY OPTIONS FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING THE GOAL PROGRAMMING TECHNIQUE 97 .
RECOMMENDATION 1: THE EVOLUTION OF THE RURAL ENERGY SUPPLY IN
RECOMMENDATION 2: THE USE OF MCDA TECHNIQUES IN RURAL ENERGY
RECOMMENDATION 3: THE NEED TO DEVELOP A NOVEL DECISION-MAKING
RECOMMENDATION 4: THE OPTIMAL ENERGY SUPPLY PORTFOLIO FOR LOW-
SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -
DMRE Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, formerly DOE DOE Department of Energy (South Africa). UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization V.I.S.A Visual Interactive Sensitivity Analysis.
Chapter introduction
Background of the study
Energy is essential for many human activities and is essential for the socio-economic development of a country” Integrated Energy Plan 2013. According to the 2018 General Household Survey (GHS) Report, approximately five percent of the country's 16.6 million households depend on candles for lighting (Stas SA, 2019).
The problem
Households with access to grid electricity still face challenges and rarely make maximum use of it due to the high cost of appliances and electricity. Given the large gap in the supply of affordable and reliable energy, many households are forced to resort to the use of multiple energy sources.
Motivation for the present study
The study shows a wide range of modern energy supply technologies that can be implemented to increase energy access among low-income households in the country. A review of the energy access policies revealed the multi-objective nature and multi-actor features of energy resource planning.
Research objectives
For example, Bhattacharyya (2012) argues that there has been an unbalanced focus on rural electrification in recent decades, which has unfortunately failed to address the problem of energy access and increase sustainable development efforts. The energy access planning problem in South Africa therefore lends itself as a good candidate for a multi-criteria decision-making problem, as multiple stakeholders characterize the problem with different objectives for which a hierarchy of criteria can be developed.
Significance
Beneficiaries of the study are the public sector and non-governmental institutions tasked with designing, producing, evaluating and implementing energy access and development policies. There is room for the development of sectoral and national energy planning and decision-making, and this is what the study is designed to achieve.
Research framework
- A review of the status quo
- Literature survey
- Goal programming and multi-attribute value theory
- Scenario analysis
To analyze the evolution of rural energy development narratives in the context of South Africa. Literature review Identification of success stories involving the use of MCDA techniques in understanding rural energy infrastructure investments.
Scope of research
A review of the status quo was used to establish the status quo and develop a historical time profile of South African rural energy development and development interventions. A literature survey was used to substantiate research findings as well as the theoretical and methodological contributions of the application of MCDA techniques to confront rural energy development problems.
Data considerations
Data sources
Elected or appointed officials responsible for making the final decision regarding the planning of the rural energy infrastructure; and. The data and other information presented were instrumental in the development of GP and MAVT models.
Data analysis
The key variables used in the multi-objective optimization framework were obtained from the project's databases and consisted of a comprehensive set of factors representing financial, technical, environmental, socio-economic and political considerations.
Study limitations
14 Finally, a significant limitation of the study was the difficulty in securing appointments with senior government decision-makers to participate in strategic dialogues. Regardless, the insights gained from the strategic dialogues that take place through face-to-face platforms and virtual conferences are considered relevant and comprehensive in shaping the shape of the developed framework and addressing the research questions and objectives.
Organisation of the thesis
Application and validation and refinement of the GP framework developed based on fieldwork conducted with a panel of experts. Application and validation and refinement of the value function framework developed based on fieldwork conducted with a panel.
Chapter conclusion
The section deals with the central issue of the research project; the task of building a multi-objective and multi-criteria decision support framework for planning low-income household energy supply interventions. This chapter presents a review of the development and status of energy supply to rural households in South Africa.
South African rural areas
For example, apart from Gauteng and the Western Cape provinces, over 50 percent of families in South Africa rely on social grants. 2014) found high levels of poverty among families living in rural and informal urban areas located in Limpopo, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu Natal provinces.
Energy for cooking in low-income households
In Limpopo province, almost 32 percent of households use firewood for cooking (Stats SA, 2019). In these provinces, firewood accounts for approximately 19 percent of the energy for heating (Stats SA, 2019).
Sources of energy for lighting
In most low-income households, grid electricity supplies more than 95 percent of the energy used for lighting. Electricity use for lighting in backyard homes accounted for 60 percent and is lowest in low-income informal areas, at about 49 percent according to 2018 GHS statistics.
Service delivery in low-income areas
Over the years, solar PV has been deployed on a scale in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo provinces (Stats SA, 2019). The biggest challenge with initiatives like the SHS, FBE and the FBAE was the absence of a proper definition of needy clients.
Discussion
A comparable study conducted by Afrika et al. 2008) noted that between 2005 and 2008, the use of electricity for cooking increased in some low-income households in Grahamstown East. In rural areas, the demand for firewood is considered to be inelastic (Matsika et al., 2013).
Chapter conclusion
35 Most recent empirical studies by Matsika et al. 2013) reinforce the argument that the use of firewood to meet thermal energy needs remains high. LPG and kerosene energy sources are considered by most households as alternatives to firewood and electricity (Matsika et al.
Chapter introduction
Multi-criteria decision analysis
Koopmans' work led to the introduction of the theory of efficient and non-dominated vectors (Koopmans, 1951). In 1957, Charnes and Cooper extended the theory developed by Koopmans by applying their GP linear model in the field of operations research.
MCDA process and problem structuring
In the next stage, the analyst constructs the decision model for assessing the problem with input from the decision maker(s). If this is done improperly, the reliability of the resulting outcomes will be poor and rejected by stakeholders in the decision.
The decision context
The selection of evaluation criteria must be operational, ie it must be acceptable to all actors; The evaluation criteria must be exhaustive, that is, the choice must take into account all vital points of view;
Identifying and selecting options to be evaluated
The social element answers the question, "when and how should stakeholders be involved?" while the technical element answers the question, "which form of MCDA should be used?". As part of the first phase, the decision analyst considers the context of the evaluation.
Criteria for assessing outcomes
Scoring the options
Weighting
Examining the results
Sensitivity and robustness analysis
Multi-criteria decision analysis techniques
- Multiobjective optimisation
- Data envelopment analysis
- Outranking techniques
- Value/utility function approaches
The STEM technique allows the decision maker to find solutions and the relative importance of the objectives. The main shortcoming of the technique is that the technique does not provide a precise technique for assigning weights (Pohekar and Ramachandran, 2004).
Chapter conclusion
An additive measure, also known as a fully additive measure, can be aggregated along any of the dimensions included in the set of measures that contain the measure (Kolesárová, 2019). The chapter addresses the second objective of the study and investigates empirical studies on MCDA and sustainable rural energy planning and development.
Decision making in the public sector
- Financial analysis
The chapter provides both a descriptive summary and a critical analysis of salient features of existing studies. The literature review was conducted to identify inconsistencies, gaps, and limitations in existing studies, conflicts in previous studies, open questions from other research, and identify the need (justification) for additional research – the current study.
MFMA clause on infrastructure projects
Cost-effectiveness analysis
The aim of CEA is to select the cheapest option without compromising on quality. However, the benefits of CEA are not monetized and quantified physical measures, such as project outcomes, are used to measure the net benefit.
Cost-benefit analysis
Second, the effectiveness of the CBA technique is affected by the unavailability of relevant and noise-free data. The CBA technique is popular in guiding public policies in many countries (Zerbe and Bellas, 2006).
Evaluation techniques based on multi-objective optimisation
The main drawback of the CBA methodology is that even using procedures such as stated preference or hedonic pricing, it is practically impossible to accurately determine the monetary values of non-traded impacts making the CBA technique susceptible to optimism bias9 (Cantarelli et al., 2010). . The challenge of using a general social discount rate across the country is the sensitivity of the discount rate.
Summary of empirical studies
- Application of MCDA techniques in the energy sector
- MCDA techniques applied
The study applies and proves analyzes of both single and multiple criteria. the lack of analysis of exclusionary criteria. The developed decision-making framework has helped to illustrate the applicability of MCDA techniques in the analysis of comparable power generation technologies.
Chapter conclusion
83 findings, there is a large body of academic research supporting the use of MCDA techniques to solve the energy supply problem. The empirical evidence discussed in this chapter and the assessment of the state of energy supply in rural and informal settlements in South Africa in Chapter 2 reveal some interesting phenomena that contradict the belief of grid electrification.
Chapter introduction
Energy planning in South Africa
A suggested approach in assembling an expert panel is that the decision analyst should conduct a stakeholder analysis to identify the main interest groups and key stakeholders in the issue. The main stakeholders in the problem should be identified as individuals and organizations involved in the energy sector or another sector in cases where the developed framework is applied in another sector.
Identifying and defining policy portfolios and appraisal
87 In the context of the developed framework, the rural energy portfolio was defined as a set of technologies (sources) of energy supply to meet the energy needs of families (uses). Figure 18 presents a typical energy portfolio for a rural family. These core portfolios are generally loosely defined and further clarified during the implementation phases of the developed framework.
Decision recognition and diagnosis
- Selecting portfolios of action: goal programming
A second major limitation of the procedure is the time and financial resources required to complete the procedure discussed above. The minus and the plus superscripts indicate whether a goal should be minimized, overachieved or underachieved from the goal priority.
Group decision-support for energy policy evaluation
- Model for evaluating alternatives
- Sensitivity and scenario analysis
Portfolio-based policy planning framework
The MAVT technique is suitable for achieving this goal because it improves understanding of the problem. Finally, an additional justification for using MAVT is the ease of use of software to test the robustness of the results using sensitivity analysis (see Appendix D).
Discussion
The MAVT technique is considered a robust and consistent framework that is theoretically stronger and more transparent for users/decision makers, Section 3.3.5. The MAVT technique is credited with reducing the amount of information needed to fully understand the problem and the outcomes of a decision.
Chapter conclusion
Further analysis and literature review indicated that a conceptual, preliminary evaluation framework has limited applicability in evaluating energy supply development plans. The framework developed is based on the conceptual framework and was created by reviewing the literature on the development of low-income household energy supply policies.
Chapter introduction
Outline of the model
- Stakeholders
- Selecting options for action, attributes and indicators
- Options for action
The panel of experts also agreed on a list of the costs and technical parameters for assessing the energy supply technologies. Given the high fuel efficiency, bioethanol gel is one of the most popular sources of energy.
Selecting portfolios of action: multi-objective linear programming procedure .1 Defining the decision variables
- Objectives
- Scenarios
- Weights
The research objectives were put forward as part of the second round of strategic dialogues conducted with the panel of experts and community representatives. The scenarios adopted for the study emerged as part of the second round of strategic dialogues conducted with the panel of experts and community representatives.
Solution using goal programming
- Total installed capacity
- Status quo scenario
- Warmer and dry climate scenario results
- Cold and wet climate scenario results
- Total installed capacity
- Informal urban settlements
What is particularly interesting to discuss from the results of the analysis is the absence of firewood in the energy mix. None of the other technologies will be deployed under the cold and wet climate scenario.
Implications for practice
- Adopting the augmented GP model energy access problems
- Utilising the model developed under the different scenarios
- What do the decision-makers learn about their goals?
Decision makers in the public policy setting faced with large-scale problems can use the GP model developed in this study. The study noted that minimizing operational life cycle costs is also an equally important goal.
Chapter conclusion
Chapter introduction
Methodology
- Attributes and indicators
Qualitative objective, energy efficiency implies less use of energy, highly efficient energy supply options are the most. With the preventive criteria and the list of desired criteria in place, the panel identified a list of energy supply technologies that met the preventive criteria and seemed closest to the desired criteria.
Firewood Kerosene
Bioethanol
Grid
Solar with
Porfolio name
Portfolio components (mix)
Alternatives scoring
Investment costs, including equipment (R/GJ) - the opportunity cost is divided by the highest cost, then multiplied by 100. All quantitative scales used in the model were linear, i.e., the scales used assume that the preferences of decision makers increased linearly.
Determining attribute weights and partial value functions
As the process was iterative, the scoring was changed after the researcher went through the process with the panel members. Again, the process was iterative, meaning that the weights were changed as the researcher went through the process with the panel members.
Evaluation results
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Scenario Analysis Informal urban settlements
- MAVT model results for the informal urban area scenario
The same procedures applied for the rural scenario were also followed in the informal urban scenario. The large amounts of firewood and kerosene in the technical scenario for rural areas are notable differences between the MAVT results and the GP scenario for informal urban areas.
Y plot results for the informal urban area community scenario
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Adopting the MCDA framework to tackle the complexities of real-life policy analysis and outcomes
- Implications for policy implementation and research
- Strategies for promoting and defending policy decisions
- Chapter conclusion
- Chapter introduction
- Research findings
- Status quo: energy supply among low-income households
- Literature review findings
- Decision-making procedures
- Framework application and validation
- Optimal portfolios of energy supply technologies for low-income households One of the critical objectives of this study was the selection of an optimal portfolio of energy
- Policy implications
- Overview of the current pro-poor energy policy setting
- Outcomes of the existing policies and programmes
- Policy implications
A question that arises is, "when implementing the recommended strategies discussed, how can policy decisions be promoted and defended in practice?" The following section addresses this question. If allowed to continue and nothing is done about energy mixes, the status quo means that gender inequality, especially in low-income communities, will continue. refer to Section 1.1 and Section 6.7.3) The lives of women and girls will continue to be characterized by lack of access to.
