South Africa's transition to cleaner and more sustainable energy systems requires all stakeholders to understand the potential contribution and impact of the various energy sources available. Panel members who undertook the consensus study on "South Africa's Technical Readiness to Support the Shale Gas Industry", published in 2016, and continue to support the efforts of the ASSAf secretariat: Prof Cyril O'Connor, Dr Stephanus de Lange , Mr. Stefan Hrabar, Prof Meagan Mauter, Dr Mike Shand and Mr Mthozami Xiphu; including the late Prof. Maarten de Wit of Nelson Mandela University, with the support of Mr. Greg Schreiner. Presenters and participants of the conference "The South African Shale Gas Industry: Towards a Scientific Action Plan" held in Port Elizabeth 31 August - 1 September 2017, including the late Prof Robert (Bob) Scholes of the University of the Witwatersrand.
Presenters and participants of the “Consultative Workshop on the Shale Gas Science Action Plan for South Africa” held at Kievits Kroon, Pretoria, 14 – 15 March 2019, including the late Prof. Azra Tutuncu from the Colorado School of Mines (United States of America), Prof. Fikri Kuchuk from Schlumberger (United States of America), and the late Prof. Robert Scholes from the University of the Witwatersrand. This paper presents the response of the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) and the South African Academy of Engineering (SAAE) to a request submitted by the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) for a Scientific Action Plan (SAP) to supporting an emerging shale gas industry in South Africa. The success of SAP will of course depend on the extent to which the outlined tasks are carried out.
It is important that this SAP is read in conjunction with the ASSAf report "South Africa's Technical Readiness to Support the Shale Gas Industry" (link), submitted to DSI in June 2015 and published in October 2016, as the SAP is a direct result of that study. South Africa's technical readiness to support the shale gas industry (https://research.assaf.org.za/handle.
Introduction 1
One of the main priorities for the shale gas industry in South Africa is the accurate determination of the amount of potentially recoverable gas and the protection of the sensitive properties that sustain life in the central Karoo. What would be the impact of the exploration on groundwater, a critical resource in the area. What metrics should be used to determine the regional health baseline for the Central Karoo.
What is the current health status in the Central Karoo and what is the status of the health infrastructure and skills. Review the suitability of regulations to create an enabling environment for shale gas exploration. Lochner, P., Schreiner, G., Snyman-Van der Walt, L. eds), Shale gas development in the central Karoo: a scientific assessment of opportunities and risks.
State of the art: Fracking for shale gas exploration in South Africa and the impact on water resources. Shale gas development in the central Karoo: Shale gas development in the central Karoo: A scientific assessment of opportunities and risks.
Background to Shale Gas 3
Global and National Interest 4
South Africa’s Energy System and Policy Context 4
The Central Karoo Social and Ecological Systems 4
Petroleum Geology of the Karoo Basin 5
Shale Gas Exploration, Development and Production 5
- Exploration Phase I 7
- Exploration Phase II 7
- Development and Production 7
- Decommissioning and Abandonment 7
Consensus on Levels of Risk 8
Research Need 9
The Principle of Co-beneficiary Research 10
Whether shale gas can be extracted from the Karoo Basin at economically viable rates is yet to be determined. Only after detailed exploration activities as part of Exploration Phase I and Exploration Phase II will there be a clearer indication of the true extent of the economically recoverable resources, which may be significant or of little value. During the period of exploration to determine the true extent of resource availability, it is critical that concurrent interdisciplinary baseline research is conducted in a coordinated and transparent manner so that sufficient information is available to inform regulatory decision-making related to potential extensive development activities.
Because of the risk that there may be no economically recoverable gas in the Karoo Basin, SAP exploration should be positioned as a "co-beneficiary". In other words, even if the shale gas resource in the Karoo Basin is not economically viable, the basic data collected and the analysis undertaken will be useful to the wider society in sectors other than the shale gas industry. For example, research into the characteristics of deep aquifers in the Karoo Basin could be developed as future water sources even if shale gas development does not occur; research on existing tourism enterprises and other socio-economic trends can help shape regional spatial development frameworks; and health surveys can help to better understand human conditions in the Central Karoo in order to improve the implementation and operation of health care systems.
The central principle is that the research should be designed to take into account the possibility that shale gas cannot continue at development and production scale, and therefore the research should be as relevant as possible to a diversity of sector and societal interests.
Research Scope 11
Research Topics 11
What are the basic social and economic statuses of the people living in the Central Karoo. What is the economic value of the gas industry versus agriculture, tourism, renewable energy and other mining sectors.
Flagship Programmes 12
Research Governance 12
How can trainees and young professionals be integrated into the next decade of research and implementation. The department works in direct collaboration with the research leader on the coordination of research activities.
Key Research Tasks 14
- Flagship Programme 1 - Geology, Gas Resources, Seismicity, 15
- Flagship Programme 3 - Water quality and availability, and waste 21
- Flagship Programme 5 - Social Fabric, Local Economics, 32
- Research Integration Task 38
- Programme Coordination Task 38
Three organisations, Nelson Mandela University, the University of Johannesburg and the Council for Geoscience (CGS), are conducting research into the shale gas potential of the Karoo Basin. The deep borehole will intersect the carbonaceous shales of the Ecca Group, the Prince Albert and Whitehill formations, which are the main targets for shale gas in the Karoo Basin of South Africa. Diversification of the energy mix and associated economic benefits to South Africa from domestic indigenous natural gas should be explored, as well as the impact of indigenous natural gas on reducing import dependence on liquid fuels in the transport sector.
The Water Research Commission (WRC) published “State of the art: Fracking for shale gas exploration in South Africa and the impact on water resources” in 2012 (Steyl et al., 2012). There is limited understanding of the nature of basin groundwater flow and its properties, geometries and controlling factors in the Karoo Basin. There is limited understanding of the response of the Whitehill Formation and its overlying strata to hydraulic fracturing.
The biggest concern with shale gas is that the extensive linear infrastructure could lead to fragmentation of the landscape. As part of the scientific assessment of shale gas development (Scholes et al., 2016), the opportunities and risks related to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have been examined. The information from municipal and provincial planning documents provides a good indication of the basic social and economic trends in the area.
Yes Table 11 Analysis of the tasks of the research topic of Social Fabric and Local Economy. Trainees are also employed in the laboratory and sent to research topic leaders in SAP implementation. Strategic environmental assessment for shale gas development in the Central Karoo phase 3: Decision support tools report.
Palaeoenvironment, diagenesis and characteristics of Permian black shales in the Lower Karoo Supergroup flanking the Cape Fold Belt near Jansenville, Eastern Cape, South Africa: Implications for shale gas potential in the Karoo Basin.
Conclusions 39
