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Lampiran 1 Output komputer dugaan model penyediaan dan konsumsi BBM Indonesia
1) Persamaan Pemanfaatan Kilang Minyak
Dependent Variable: RFUT Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 06:55 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1.781566 1.394778 1.277311 0.2304 PDB 0.000388 0.000437 0.887781 0.3955 PSKBR -0.136062 0.087670 -1.551990 0.1517 RFUT_1 0.727932 0.228844 3.180910 0.0098 R-squared 0.870054 Mean dependent var 9.357143 Adjusted R-squared 0.831070 S.D. dependent var 0.841897 S.E. of regression 0.346029 Sum squared resid 1.197358 F-statistic 22.31837 Durbin-Watson stat 1.745627 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000095 Second-Stage SSR 1.197358 J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
2) Persamaan Produksi BBM Domestik
Dependent Variable: YBBMD Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 11/01/16 Time: 06:43 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 219072.5 94831.24 2.310130 0.0435 POILW -442.8191 204.7910 -2.162298 0.0559 DRFCRD 0.027747 0.184149 0.150676 0.8832 YBBMD_1 0.260973 0.316348 0.824953 0.4286 R-squared 0.850156 Mean dependent var 257042.0 Adjusted R-squared 0.805202 S.D. dependent var 17992.72 S.E. of regression 7941.249 Sum squared resid 6.31E+08 F-statistic 18.91196 Durbin-Watson stat 2.179089 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000191 Second-Stage SSR 6.31E+08 J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
3) Persamaan Impor Minyak Mentah
Dependent Variable: IMCR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:19 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 126943.4 134514.6 0.943715 0.3729 CBBM 0.087832 0.183821 0.477811 0.6456 PCRD -0.222580 0.178785 -1.244959 0.2484 POILW -1006.891 345.2864 -2.916105 0.0194 EXCHR 6.379853 3.750356 1.701132 0.1273 IMCR_1 0.416872 0.182477 2.284516 0.0517 R-squared 0.749650 Mean dependent var 119460.9 Adjusted R-squared 0.593181 S.D. dependent var 19983.99 S.E. of regression 12746.26 Sum squared resid 1.30E+09 F-statistic 4.791047 Durbin-Watson stat 2.627107 Prob(F-statistic) 0.025374 Second-Stage SSR 1.30E+09 J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
4) Persamaan Impor BBM
Dependent Variable: IBBM Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:21 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -56427.10 88189.96 -0.639836 0.5382 CBBM 0.453823 0.267111 1.699007 0.1235 VEHI 0.000296 0.000417 0.710111 0.4956 EXCHR -3.213686 4.862488 -0.660914 0.5252 IBBM_1 0.464242 0.273385 1.698126 0.1237 R-squared 0.869013 Mean dependent var 155609.0 Adjusted R-squared 0.810796 S.D. dependent var 38397.11 S.E. of regression 16701.81 Sum squared resid 2.51E+09 F-statistic 14.92724 Durbin-Watson stat 2.091006 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000523 Second-Stage SSR 2.51E+09 J-statistic 9.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.437274
5) Persamaan Harga Minyak Mentah Domestik
Dependent Variable: RPCRD Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:23 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 65586.82 337628.3 0.194258 0.8508 CBBM 0.094689 1.002457 0.094457 0.9271 SBBM -0.751380 1.078907 -0.696427 0.5059 GSBBM 1958.264 541.4478 3.616718 0.0068 POILW 8586.004 1155.050 7.433447 0.0001 RPCRD_1 0.130874 0.069575 1.881034 0.0968 R-squared 0.989411 Mean dependent var 694004.7 Adjusted R-squared 0.982793 S.D. dependent var 378442.4 S.E. of regression 49642.25 Sum squared resid 1.97E+10 F-statistic 149.5019 Durbin-Watson stat 2.688193 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 1.97E+10 J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
6) Persamaan Harga BBM
Dependent Variable: RPBBM Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:26 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 937238.7 546453.4 1.715130 0.1247 CBBM -2.601710 1.530367 -1.700056 0.1275 SBBM -0.428720 1.670531 -0.256637 0.8039 GSBBM 247.3760 958.7211 0.258027 0.8029 POILW 11033.31 2397.424 4.602155 0.0018 RPBBM_1 0.144988 0.125211 1.157946 0.2803 R-squared 0.963213 Mean dependent var 740515.9 Adjusted R-squared 0.940221 S.D. dependent var 314779.6 S.E. of regression 76963.05 Sum squared resid 4.74E+10 F-statistic 41.89327 Durbin-Watson stat 2.058830 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000016 Second-Stage SSR 4.74E+10 J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14
Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
7) Persamaan Harga Avgas
Dependent Variable: RPAVG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:28 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2334053. 2152732. 1.084229 0.3099 CAVG -44874.20 42561.71 -1.054333 0.3225 SBBM -5.453508 6.902875 -0.790034 0.4523 GSBBM 1171.132 3362.104 0.348333 0.7366 POILW 36838.47 8627.335 4.269971 0.0027 RPAVG_1 0.217281 0.170888 1.271477 0.2393 R-squared 0.962367 Mean dependent var 2792905. Adjusted R-squared 0.938846 S.D. dependent var 1379968. S.E. of regression 341255.6 Sum squared resid 9.32E+11 F-statistic 40.91595 Durbin-Watson stat 2.802448 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000017 Second-Stage SSR 9.32E+11 J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
8) Persamaan Harga Avtur
Dependent Variable: RPAVT Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:31 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 543582.2 490867.3 1.107391 0.3003 CAVT 3.154528 12.25542 0.257399 0.8034 SBBM -1.961585 1.625999 -1.206387 0.2621 GSBBM 2012.627 752.0807 2.676079 0.0281 POILW 12266.57 1713.192 7.160067 0.0001 RPAVT_1 0.148546 0.096348 1.541764 0.1617 R-squared 0.984726 Mean dependent var 1054817. Adjusted R-squared 0.975179 S.D. dependent var 484149.5 S.E. of regression 76275.86 Sum squared resid 4.65E+10 F-statistic 103.1510 Durbin-Watson stat 1.948075 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 4.65E+10
J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
9) Persamaan Harga Bensin
Dependent Variable: RPGSL Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 16:18 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -11217.14 552902.3 -0.020288 0.9843 CGSL -0.726840 2.821958 -0.257566 0.8032 SBBM 0.237586 1.944247 0.122199 0.9058 GSBBM -481.0797 1122.357 -0.428633 0.6795 POILW 6184.305 2884.110 2.144268 0.0643 RPGSL_1 0.500298 0.276940 1.806524 0.1085 R-squared 0.933375 Mean dependent var 650625.2 Adjusted R-squared 0.891734 S.D. dependent var 270826.6 S.E. of regression 89112.11 Sum squared resid 6.35E+10 F-statistic 22.41499 Durbin-Watson stat 1.774203 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000164 Second-Stage SSR 6.35E+10 J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
10)Persamaan Harga Minyak Tanah
Dependent Variable: RPKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:36 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -802720.0 622621.9 -1.289258 0.2333 CKR -0.469227 1.322214 -0.354880 0.7319 SBBM 2.978791 1.983506 1.501781 0.1716 GSBBM -1591.482 1022.810 -1.555991 0.1583 POILW 3100.028 2237.636 1.385403 0.2033 RPKR_1 0.079909 0.426341 0.187429 0.8560 R-squared 0.819120 Mean dependent var 338190.9 Adjusted R-squared 0.706070 S.D. dependent var 123606.7 S.E. of regression 67013.73 Sum squared resid 3.59E+10 F-statistic 7.245650 Durbin-Watson stat 2.904401
Prob(F-statistic) 0.007644 Second-Stage SSR 3.59E+10 J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
11)Persamaan Harga Minyak Solar
Dependent Variable: RPDS Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:38 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 63201.67 324064.2 0.195028 0.8502 CDS -3.908137 1.530308 -2.553824 0.0340 SBBM 1.450482 1.089159 1.331744 0.2196 GSBBM -2022.833 662.7858 -3.052016 0.0158 POILW 6496.091 1720.328 3.776078 0.0054 RPDS_1 0.424985 0.131222 3.238669 0.0119 R-squared 0.973293 Mean dependent var 545172.9 Adjusted R-squared 0.956602 S.D. dependent var 250427.0 S.E. of regression 52169.70 Sum squared resid 2.18E+10 F-statistic 58.30996 Durbin-Watson stat 2.564353 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000004 Second-Stage SSR 2.18E+10 J-statistic 8.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.433470
12)Persamaan Konsumsi BBM
Dependent Variable: CBBM Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:41 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 167228.2 54968.45 3.042258 0.0124 RPBBM -0.058796 0.020585 -2.856232 0.0171 PDB 72.87119 19.77991 3.684101 0.0042 CBBM_1 0.211439 0.228529 0.925217 0.3766 R-squared 0.878025 Mean dependent var 347273.2 Adjusted R-squared 0.841433 S.D. dependent var 30634.67 S.E. of regression 12198.87 Sum squared resid 1.49E+09 F-statistic 23.99478 Durbin-Watson stat 2.510393 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000069 Second-Stage SSR 1.49E+09
J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
13)Persamaan Konsumsi Avgas
Dependent Variable: CAVG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:43 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 18.81282 8.221718 2.288186 0.0452 RPAVG -2.45E-06 1.83E-06 -1.339370 0.2101 PDB 0.000809 0.004151 0.194830 0.8494 CAVG_1 0.076075 0.363371 0.209358 0.8384 R-squared 0.635845 Mean dependent var 14.85714 Adjusted R-squared 0.526599 S.D. dependent var 4.092341 S.E. of regression 2.815700 Sum squared resid 79.28166 F-statistic 5.820287 Durbin-Watson stat 2.325660 Prob(F-statistic) 0.014458 Second-Stage SSR 79.28166 J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
14)Persamaan Konsumsi Avtur
Dependent Variable: CAVT Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:44 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -4773.847 2787.773 -1.712423 0.1176 RPAVT -0.001168 0.001850 -0.631326 0.5420 PDB 8.535512 3.390691 2.517337 0.0305 CAVT_1 0.318601 0.304673 1.045714 0.3203 R-squared 0.964104 Mean dependent var 16612.36 Adjusted R-squared 0.953335 S.D. dependent var 5361.463 S.E. of regression 1158.184 Sum squared resid 13413897 F-statistic 89.52776 Durbin-Watson stat 2.153225 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 13413897 J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
15)Persamaan Konsumsi Bensin
Dependent Variable: CGSL Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:46 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -37822.91 11048.24 -3.423432 0.0065 RPGSL -0.021263 0.008090 -2.628222 0.0252 PDB 77.86835 20.28063 3.839543 0.0033 CGSL_1 0.077394 0.255749 0.302616 0.7684 R-squared 0.992676 Mean dependent var 118712.1 Adjusted R-squared 0.990478 S.D. dependent var 35464.23 S.E. of regression 3460.554 Sum squared resid 1.20E+08 F-statistic 451.7719 Durbin-Watson stat 1.442983 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 1.20E+08 J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
16)Persamaan Konsumsi Minyak Tanah
Dependent Variable: CKR
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:48 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 27202.58 43468.01 0.625807 0.5455 RPKR -0.014882 0.021724 -0.685077 0.5089 PDB -8.825110 16.85696 -0.523529 0.6120 CKR_1 0.815651 0.267318 3.051244 0.0122 R-squared 0.965126 Mean dependent var 42329.07 Adjusted R-squared 0.954664 S.D. dependent var 27569.25 S.E. of regression 5870.120 Sum squared resid 3.45E+08 F-statistic 92.24913 Durbin-Watson stat 1.042191 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 3.45E+08 J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
17)Persamaan Konsumsi Minyak Solar
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:50 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 90224.30 48626.98 1.855437 0.0932 RPDS 0.006217 0.023805 0.261157 0.7993 PDB -15.73571 12.46724 -1.262165 0.2355 CDS_1 0.494084 0.335405 1.473097 0.1715 R-squared 0.437172 Mean dependent var 122643.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.268323 S.D. dependent var 13739.24 S.E. of regression 11752.28 Sum squared resid 1.38E+09 F-statistic 2.589136 Durbin-Watson stat 1.593378 Prob(F-statistic) 0.111116 Second-Stage SSR 1.38E+09 J-statistic 10.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.440493
18)Persamaan Pengeluaran Subsidi BBM
Dependent Variable: GSBBM Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:52 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -81.12081 202.5086 -0.400580 0.6981 RG 0.084271 0.041446 2.033295 0.0725 EXCHR_1 -0.012284 0.012373 -0.992844 0.3467 CBBM 0.000603 0.000487 1.237877 0.2471 GSBBM_1 0.319035 0.313349 1.018146 0.3352 R-squared 0.859826 Mean dependent var 110.0509 Adjusted R-squared 0.797527 S.D. dependent var 70.59028 S.E. of regression 31.76353 Sum squared resid 9080.295 F-statistic 13.80150 Durbin-Watson stat 1.959502 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000704 Second-Stage SSR 9080.295 J-statistic 9.000000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.437274
19)Persamaan Penerimaan Pemerintah
Dependent Variable: RG
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:53
Sample (adjusted): 2001 2014
Included observations: 14 after adjustments
Instrument specification: PDB PSKBR RFCRD RCCR POILW DRFCRD PCRD EXCHR VEHI RPCRD G GNS GSNBBM DPDB TAX TIBBM XBBM RFUT_1 YBBMD_1 IMCR_1 IBBM_1 RPCRD_1 RPBBM_1 CBBM_1 EXCHR_1 GSBBM_1 RPAVG_1 RPAVT_1 RPGSL_1 RPKR_1 RPDS_1 CAVG_1 CAVT_1 CGSL_1 CKR_1 CDS_1
Constant added to instrument list
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 14.71980 36.72901 0.400768 0.6963 DPDB 0.669858 0.637520 1.050725 0.3159 TAX 1.252160 0.066051 18.95738 0.0000 R-squared 0.996319 Mean dependent var 824.9372 Adjusted R-squared 0.995650 S.D. dependent var 437.6535 S.E. of regression 28.86515 Sum squared resid 9165.165 F-statistic 1488.761 Durbin-Watson stat 2.041895 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 9165.165 J-statistic 11.00000 Instrument rank 14 Prob(J-statistic) 0.443263
Lampiran 2 Output komputer hasil uji autokorelasi 1) Persamaan Pemanfaatan Kilang Minyak
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared 0.201396 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.9042 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 06:56 Sample: 2001 2014
Included observations: 14
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.375444 2.721253 0.137967 0.8937 PDB 0.000108 0.000798 0.135755 0.8954 PSKBR -0.003727 0.100510 -0.037081 0.9713 RFUT_1 -0.065378 0.463158 -0.141158 0.8912 RESID(-1) 0.150328 0.549172 0.273735 0.7912 RESID(-2) -0.026204 0.465123 -0.056339 0.9565 R-squared 0.014385 Mean dependent var -1.02E-15 Adjusted R-squared -0.601624 S.D. dependent var 0.303487 S.E. of regression 0.384079 Akaike info criterion 1.221590 Sum squared resid 1.180134 Schwarz criterion 1.495472 Log likelihood -2.551133 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.196238 F-statistic 0.023353 Durbin-Watson stat 1.903258 Prob(F-statistic) 0.999653
2) Persamaan Produksi BBM Domestik
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared 4.429452 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1092 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 11/01/16 Time: 06:45 Sample: 2001 2014
Included observations: 14
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -115198.1 107318.6 -1.073422 0.3144 POILW 174.1101 215.5950 0.807580 0.4427 DRFCRD 0.082278 0.194697 0.422594 0.6837 YBBMD_1 0.397570 0.361269 1.100482 0.3031 RESID(-1) -0.319405 0.365746 -0.873297 0.4079 RESID(-2) -0.715932 0.385082 -1.859166 0.1001 R-squared 0.316389 Mean dependent var 5.03E-11 Adjusted R-squared -0.110867 S.D. dependent var 6964.936
S.E. of regression 7340.881 Akaike info criterion 20.93783 Sum squared resid 4.31E+08 Schwarz criterion 21.21171 Log likelihood -140.5648 Hannan-Quinn criter. 20.91248 F-statistic 0.740514 Durbin-Watson stat 2.208732 Prob(F-statistic) 0.614300
3) Persamaan Impor Minyak Mentah
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared 3.105975 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.2116 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:19 Sample: 2001 2014
Included observations: 14
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -55271.36 167061.1 -0.330845 0.7520 CBBM 0.029887 0.211368 0.141399 0.8922 PCRD 0.041076 0.212156 0.193610 0.8529 POILW 88.57074 387.1290 0.228789 0.8266 EXCHR 0.563895 3.847832 0.146549 0.8883 IMCR_1 0.161615 0.228692 0.706695 0.5063 RESID(-1) -0.633455 0.488285 -1.297307 0.2422 RESID(-2) -0.112405 0.478481 -0.234922 0.8221 R-squared 0.221855 Mean dependent var 5.17E-11 Adjusted R-squared -0.685980 S.D. dependent var 9998.989 S.E. of regression 12983.22 Akaike info criterion 22.07626 Sum squared resid 1.01E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.44144 Log likelihood -146.5338 Hannan-Quinn criter. 22.04246 F-statistic 0.244378 Durbin-Watson stat 2.248783 Prob(F-statistic) 0.956323
4) Persamaan Impor BBM
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared 3.592679 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1659 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:22 Sample: 2001 2014
Included observations: 14
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 29148.68 89382.81 0.326111 0.7539 CBBM -0.225651 0.299735 -0.752834 0.4761 VEHI -0.000298 0.000520 -0.572197 0.5851 EXCHR -0.114738 4.757002 -0.024120 0.9814
IBBM_1 0.466731 0.473012 0.986720 0.3567 RESID(-1) -0.741942 0.631766 -1.174394 0.2786 RESID(-2) -0.546068 0.383092 -1.425421 0.1971 R-squared 0.256620 Mean dependent var 1.86E-10 Adjusted R-squared -0.380563 S.D. dependent var 13896.75 S.E. of regression 16328.31 Akaike info criterion 22.54604 Sum squared resid 1.87E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.86557 Log likelihood -150.8223 Hannan-Quinn criter. 22.51646 F-statistic 0.402741 Durbin-Watson stat 2.019010 Prob(F-statistic) 0.855999
5) Persamaan Harga Minyak Mentah Domestik
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared 3.118414 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.2103 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 06/01/16 Time: 07:24 Sample: 2001 2014
Included observations: 14
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -120825.6 508663.1 -0.237536 0.8201 CBBM 0.050033 1.204877 0.041525 0.9682 SBBM 0.394201 1.262365 0.312272 0.7654 GSBBM -207.8643 882.0268 -0.235667 0.8215 POILW -443.8122 1511.495 -0.293625 0.7789 RPCRD_1 0.012367 0.111349 0.111067 0.9152 RESID(-1) -0.584645 0.446907 -1.308201 0.2387 RESID(-2) -0.591957 1.365271 -0.433582 0.6797 R-squared 0.222744 Mean dependent var -1.38E-10 Adjusted R-squared -0.684055 S.D. dependent var 38942.59 S.E. of regression 50536.24 Akaike info criterion 24.79433 Sum squared resid 1.53E+10 Schwarz criterion 25.15950 Log likelihood -165.5603 Hannan-Quinn criter. 24.76052