KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN - DAFTAR LAMPIRAN

KATA PENGANTAR

DAFTAR LAMPIRAN

VI. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

6.1 Kesimpulan

Berdasarkan hasil analisis dengan menggunakan persamaan regresi berganda data panel melalui metode Fixed Effect Model dengan GLS Weights Cross-section SUR yang telah dilakukan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik di negara ASEAN 5+3 pada tahun 1996-2010, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa:

1. Kondisi kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik yang terjadi di negara ASEAN 5+3 adalah kesenjangan surplus (positif), kecuali untuk negara Filipina. Hal tersebut menandakan bahwa terjadi kondisi oversaving

dan underinvestment akibat melemahnya investasi pasca krisis ekonomi tahun 1998 dengan tingkat tabungan yang tetap tinggi, dimana tabungan nasional yang tidak digunakan untuk investasi bruto menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang tidak berkelanjutan dalam jangka panjang.

2. Variabel FDI, CPI, dan total populasi berpengaruh signifikan dan berdampak positif pada kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik. Dimana pada setiap kenaikan persentase FDI, CPI, dan total populasi, akan menyebabkan bertambahnya kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik. 3. Variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi dan krisis ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan dan berdampak negatif pada kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik. Dimana pada setiap kenaikan persentase pertumbuhan ekonomi dan krisis ekonomi, akan menyebabkan berkurangnya kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik. Kondisi dimana krisis ekonomi berdampak pada pengurangan kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik memiliki dampak yang berbeda dengan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi. Karena krisis ekonomi akan memicu pengurangan tabungan domestik dalam skala yang besar hingga mencapai kondisi defisit dimana pemerintah harus melakukan pinjaman luar negeri untuk menutupi defisit kesenjangan tersebut.

6.2 Saran

Dibutuhkan kebijakan pemerintah untuk meningkatkan alokasi dan kapasitas investasi domestik dalam rangka mendukung pembangunan infrastruktur, dan berbagai kebijakan pemerintah lainnya seperti penyertaan modal berupa investasi pada sektor dan perusahaan yang strategis yang dapat memberikan nilai tambah yang optimal guna meningkatkan perekonomian negara dan mengurangi kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik.

Kebijakan lain yang dapat dilakukan seperti regulasi penanaman modal asing yang tepat, penyertaan inflation targeting sebagai bagian dari kebijakan, peningkatan kualitas SDM melalui pemberian fasilitas pendidikan dan kesehatan yang tepat serta penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan dapat memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi, sehingga menjadi referensi bagi pemerintah negara ASEAN 5+3 dalam rangka pengurangan kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik.

Adapun keterbatasan penelitian ini adalah cakupan negara ASEAN 5+3 yang digunakan hanya meliputi delapan negara dengan periode analisis yang terbatas hanya lima belas tahun. Untuk penelitian selanjutnya penulis dapat menyarankan untuk melakukan analisis tentang faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kesenjangan tabungan dan investasi domestik, dengan menggunakan metode persamaan simultan serta menambah cakupan negara yang diteliti dan periode analisisnya.

DAFTAR PUSTAKA

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Arfina, V. 2007. Analisis Pengaruh Utang Luar Negeri dan Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 1993- 2006 [skripsi]. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen. Institut Pertanian

Bogor, Bogor.

Asian Development Bank. 2011. “Key Indicator of Developing Asian and Pasific Countries”.Filipina.

Baltagi. 2008. Econometrics. Springer, Jerman.

Boon, T. H. 2000. “Savings, Investment And Capital Flows: An Empirical Study On The ASEAN Economies”. Working Paper 3, Malaysia.

Bustelo, P. 1998. “The East Asian Financial Crisis: An Analytical Survey”.

ICEI Working Papers 10. University of Madrid, Spanyol.

Dalimunthe, A. 2008. “Analisis Determinan Yang Mempengaruhi Tabungan di Indonesia”. Jurnal Wawasan Vol 13. Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan.

Felipe, K. Kintanar, dan L. Joseph. 2006. “Asia’s Current Account Surplus: Savings Glut or Investment Drough”. Asian Development Bank Working Paper. Filipina.

Firdaus, M. 2011. Aplikasi Ekonometrika Untuk Data Panel Dan Time Series. IPB

Press, Bogor.

Firmansyah, D. 2008. Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Investasi Di Indonesia Periode Tahun 1985-2004 [skripsi]. Fakultas Ekonomi. Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta.

Gujarati. 2006. Dasar-Dasar Ekonometrika Jilid 2. Erlangga, Jakarta.

Juanda, B. 2009. Ekonometrika Permodelan dan Pendugaan. IPB Press, Bogor. Hartati, S. 2008. Pengaruh Utang Luar Negeri dan Tabungan Domestik

Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Negara-negara ASEAN : Sebuah Aplikasi Panel Data [skripsi]. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen. Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Hossain, A. dan A. Chowdhury. 2001. Macroekonomics For Develoving Countries. Edward Elgar Publishing, USA.

Khoon, G. dan M. Lim. 2010. “The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis: The Case Of Malaysia”. TWN Global Economy Series. Malaysia.

Mankiw, N.G. 2006. Teori Makroekonomi. Erlangga, Jakarta.

Mufiedah. 2010. Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Pinjaman Luar Negeri Swasta Di Indonesia [thesis]. Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan. Munir, Anwar, dan Hussain. 2010. “ Investment, Savings, Interest Rate and Bank

Credit to the Private Sector Nexus in Pakistan”. International Journal of Marketing Studies. Departemen Ekonomi. University of Sirgodha, Pakistan.

Muwarni, S. 2007. Analisis Kebijakan Moneter Kaitannya Dengan Penanaman Modal Asing : Pendekatan Taylor Rule [tesis]. Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang.

Oh, Y. dan S. Jeong. 2007. “Rebalancing Saving-Investment Gaps in East Asia”.

Working Paper, 05: 42-56.

Park, D. dan K. Shin. 2009. “Saving, Investment, and Current Account Surplus in Developing Asia”. Economics Working Paper Series, 158. Asian

Development Bank.

Permata, R. 2011. Faktor-Faktor Yang Memengaruhi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Kawasan ASEAN+6 : Pendekatan Data Panel [skripsi]. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Plummer, M.G dan D. Cheong. 2008. “FDI Effects of ASEAN Integration”. The Johns Hopkins University, SAIS-Bologna.

Purba, J. 2008. Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Tabungan dan Investasi Swasta Di Indonesia [skripsi]. Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan.

Samuelson, P. A. dan W. D. Nordhaus. 1997. Makroekonomi. Erlangga, Jakarta. Sanuri. 2005. Pinjaman Luar Negeri Pemerintah (Loan Agreement Hingga Restrukturisasi). Bank Indonesia, Jakarta.

Shiimi, I. dan G. Kadhikwa. 1999. “Savings and Investment in Namibia”. BON Occasional Paper2. Namibia.

Sicat, G.P. 2006. “Philippine Macroeconomic Issues And Their Causes”. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Singapura.

Subekti, A. 2011. Dinamika Inflasi Indonesia Pada Tataran Provinsi [tesis]. Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Supriyanto, Sampurna dan F. Agung. 1999. Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia. Djambatan, Jakarta.

Tim Komisi Pendidikan. 2005. Pedoman Penulisan Skripsi. Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Todaro, M.P. dan S.C. Smith. 2006. Pembangunan Ekonomi Jilid 1. Haris Munandar [penerjemah]. Erlangga, Jakarta.

United Nations Development Programme. 2012. “Human Development Reports”. Widiarti, R. 2008. Analisis Kausalitas Antara Tabungan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dalam Jangka Panjang dan Jangka Pendek Pada 26 Provinsi di Indonesia [skripsi]. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Institut

Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

World Bank. 2010. World bank Economic Database. www.worldbank.org

[Februari 2012]

Yuniasih, A. 2011. Pengaruh FDI Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2009 [skripsi]. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

LAMPIRAN

Lampiran 1 Hasil Output EVIEWS 6.0 untuk Pengujian Panel Unit Root

Variabel SIGAP

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: SIGAP

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:09 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.93173 0.0000 8 110 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -5.57658 0.0000 8 110 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 53.7508 0.0000 8 110 PP - Fisher Chi-square 33.3651 0.0066 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

- Metode dengan intersep dan trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: SIGAP

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:11 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.71434 0.0000 8 109 Breitung t-stat -1.89281 0.0292 8 101 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -5.37398 0.0000 8 109 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 50.0606 0.0000 8 109 PP - Fisher Chi-square 25.5364 0.0609 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel FDI

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: FDI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:12 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -3.57448 0.0002 8 109 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -4.16795 0.0000 8 109 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 45.7047 0.0001 8 109 PP - Fisher Chi-square 42.5338 0.0003 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

- Metode dengan intersep dan trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: FDI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:12 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -2.56441 0.0052 8 108 Breitung t-stat -1.98327 0.0237 8 100 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -4.33188 0.0000 8 108 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 45.0274 0.0001 8 108 PP - Fisher Chi-square 30.3936 0.0161 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel CPI

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: CPI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:13 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -8.88387 0.0000 8 109 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -6.67922 0.0000 8 109 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 67.5003 0.0000 8 109 PP - Fisher Chi-square 59.0970 0.0000 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

- Metode dengan intersep dan trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: CPI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:13 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -5.41689 0.0000 8 108 Breitung t-stat -5.72352 0.0000 8 100 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -5.09066 0.0000 8 108 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 51.5831 0.0000 8 108 PP - Fisher Chi-square 47.8271 0.0001 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel TP

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: TP

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:14 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -13.8588 0.0000 8 100 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -3.11195 0.0009 8 100 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 34.9273 0.0041 8 100 PP - Fisher Chi-square 87.9626 0.0000 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel GROWTH

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: GROWTH

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:14 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -10.4951 0.0000 8 107 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -8.50072 0.0000 8 107 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 80.0489 0.0000 8 107 PP - Fisher Chi-square 58.5770 0.0000 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

- Metode dengan intersep dan trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: GROWTH

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:15 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -1.37735 0.0842 8 106 Breitung t-stat -1.65697 0.0488 8 98 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -5.22074 0.0000 8 106 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 53.9638 0.0000 8 106 PP - Fisher Chi-square 43.4457 0.0002 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel DKRISIS

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: DKRISIS

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:16 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel Balanced observations for each test

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -2.98586 0.0014 8 112 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -5.00977 0.0000 8 112 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 51.8772 0.0000 8 112 PP - Fisher Chi-square 51.8772 0.0000 8 112 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Lampiran 2 Hasil Output EVIEWS 6.0 untuk Uji Normalitas

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -2 -1 0 1 2

Series: Standardized Residuals Sample 1996 2010 Observations 120 Mean 4.76e-16 Median 0.011181 Maximum 2.384822 Minimum -2.360474 Std. Dev. 0.977145 Skewness -0.010982 Kurtosis 2.579437 Jarque-Bera 0.886779 Probability 0.641857

Sumber: Hasil Pengolahan dengan EVIEWS 6.0

Lampiran 3 Hasil Output EVIEWS 6.0 untuk Uji Multikolinearitas

SIGAP FDI CPI LOG(TP) GROWTH DKRISIS

SIGAP 1.0000 0.6236 -0.0907 -0.5767 0.0167 0.0084 FDI 0.6236 1.0000 -0.1842 -0.5661 0.2906 -0.0692 CPI -0.0907 -0.1842 1.0000 0.1393 -0.3309 0.1614 LOG(TP) -0.5767 -0.5661 0.1393 1.0000 0.1674 0.0021 GROWTH 0.0167 0.2906 -0.3309 0.1674 1.0000 -0.3999 DKRISIS 0.0084 -0.0692 0.1614 0.0021 -0.3999 1.0000

Lampiran 4 Hasil Output EViews 6.0 estimasi dengan Pooled Least Square Model

Dependent Variable: SIGAP Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:17 Sample: 1996 2010

Periods included: 15 Cross-sections included: 8

Total panel (balanced) observations: 120

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 37.88120 10.62675 3.564704 0.0005 FDI 0.975842 0.195579 4.989513 0.0000 CPI 0.026341 0.118675 0.221957 0.8247 LOG(TP) -1.876753 0.588729 -3.187805 0.0019 GROWTH -0.130538 0.200597 -0.650748 0.5165 DKRISIS 0.319093 1.553439 0.205411 0.8376 R-squared 0.467107 Mean dependent var 6.861917 Adjusted R-squared 0.443735 S.D. dependent var 9.735957 S.E. of regression 7.261387 Akaike info criterion 6.851726 Sum squared resid 6010.963 Schwarz criterion 6.991100 Log likelihood -405.1035 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.908326 F-statistic 19.98535 Durbin-Watson stat 0.459397

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 5 Hasil Output EViews 6.0 estimasi dengan Fixed Effect Model

Dependent Variable: SIGAP Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:18 Sample: 1996 2010

Periods included: 15 Cross-sections included: 8

Total panel (balanced) observations: 120

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -687.8307 106.8204 -6.439131 0.0000 FDI 0.259551 0.174513 1.487290 0.1399 CPI 0.041669 0.081832 0.509209 0.6117 LOG(TP) 38.41382 5.894881 6.516470 0.0000 GROWTH -0.472081 0.126865 -3.721137 0.0003 DKRISIS -1.767339 0.862835 -2.048294 0.0430 Effects Specification

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)

R-squared 0.857047 Mean dependent var 6.861917 Adjusted R-squared 0.841015 S.D. dependent var 9.735957 S.E. of regression 3.882007 Akaike info criterion 5.652585 Sum squared resid 1612.488 Schwarz criterion 5.954564 Log likelihood -326.1551 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.775220 F-statistic 53.45832 Durbin-Watson stat 0.973969

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Sumber: Hasil Pengolahan dengan EVIEWS 6.0

Lampiran 6 Hasil Output EViews 6.0 Chow Test

Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Equation: FIXED

Test cross-section fixed effects

Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.

Cross-section F 41.695728 (7,107) 0.0000 Cross-section Chi-square 157.896835 7 0.0000

Lampiran 7 Hasil Output EViews 6.0 estimasi dengan Random Effect Model

Dependent Variable: SIGAP

Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:20

Sample: 1996 2010 Periods included: 15 Cross-sections included: 8

Total panel (balanced) observations: 120

Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -3.638848 32.47342 -0.112056 0.9110 FDI 0.269944 0.171664 1.572519 0.1186 CPI -0.002019 0.081148 -0.024877 0.9802 LOG(TP) 0.640926 1.782932 0.359478 0.7199 GROWTH -0.370902 0.125660 -2.951624 0.0038 DKRISIS -1.028792 0.855974 -1.201896 0.2319 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 7.964291 0.8080 Idiosyncratic random 3.882007 0.1920 Weighted Statistics

R-squared 0.066672 Mean dependent var 0.856834 Adjusted R-squared 0.025736 S.D. dependent var 4.623189 S.E. of regression 4.563309 Sum squared resid 2373.912 F-statistic 1.628702 Durbin-Watson stat 0.671518

Prob(F-statistic) 0.157998

Unweighted Statistics

R-squared 0.020567 Mean dependent var 6.861917 Sum squared resid 11047.88 Durbin-Watson stat 0.144292

Sumber: Hasil Pengolahan dengan EVIEWS 6.0

Lampiran 8 Hasil Output EViews 6.0 Hausman Test

Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Equation: Untitled

Test cross-section random effects

Test Summary

Chi-Sq.

Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 47.525938 5 0.0000

Lampiran 9 Hasil Output EViews 6.0 estimasi dengan Fixed Effect Model GLS Weights Cross-section weight

Dependent Variable: SIGAP

Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section weights) Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:22

Sample: 1996 2010 Periods included: 15 Cross-sections included: 8

Total panel (balanced) observations: 120 Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -580.0361 95.83108 -6.052692 0.0000 FDI 0.233401 0.210469 1.108958 0.2699 CPI 0.106419 0.069153 1.538903 0.1268 LOG(TP) 32.38563 5.284262 6.128696 0.0000 GROWTH -0.232983 0.099008 -2.353174 0.0204 DKRISIS -1.067233 0.563419 -1.894210 0.0609 Effects Specification

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)

Weighted Statistics

R-squared 0.845183 Mean dependent var 5.393344 Adjusted R-squared 0.827820 S.D. dependent var 7.965937 S.E. of regression 3.765621 Sum squared resid 1517.249 F-statistic 48.67808 Durbin-Watson stat 1.063744

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Unweighted Statistics

R-squared 0.851233 Mean dependent var 6.861917 Sum squared resid 1678.068 Durbin-Watson stat 1.001448

Lampiran 10 Hasil Output EViews 6.0 estimasi dengan Fixed Effect Model GLS Weights Cross-section SUR

Dependent Variable: SIGAP

Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section SUR) Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:23

Sample: 1996 2010 Periods included: 15 Cross-sections included: 8

Total panel (balanced) observations: 120 Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -570.3739 70.91400 -8.043178 0.0000 FDI 0.230511 0.098514 2.339883 0.0211 CPI 0.085673 0.042191 2.030602 0.0448 LOG(TP) 31.88240 3.916958 8.139581 0.0000 GROWTH -0.306716 0.072740 -4.216611 0.0001 DKRISIS -1.400014 0.535527 -2.614272 0.0102 Effects Specification

Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)

Weighted Statistics

R-squared 0.897787 Mean dependent var 0.944349 Adjusted R-squared 0.886324 S.D. dependent var 2.951325 S.E. of regression 1.030483 Sum squared resid 113.6227 F-statistic 78.31955 Durbin-Watson stat 1.376852

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Unweighted Statistics

R-squared 0.853432 Mean dependent var 6.861917 Sum squared resid 1653.268 Durbin-Watson stat 0.979272

LAMPIRAN

Lampiran 1 Hasil Output EVIEWS 6.0 untuk Pengujian Panel Unit Root

Variabel SIGAP

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: SIGAP

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:09 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.93173 0.0000 8 110 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

- Metode dengan intersep dan trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: SIGAP

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:11 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.71434 0.0000 8 109 Breitung t-stat -1.89281 0.0292 8 101 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel FDI

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: FDI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:12 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -3.57448 0.0002 8 109 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

- Metode dengan intersep dan trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: FDI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:12 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -2.56441 0.0052 8 108 Breitung t-stat -1.98327 0.0237 8 100 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel CPI

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: CPI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:13 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -8.88387 0.0000 8 109 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

- Metode dengan intersep dan trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: CPI

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:13 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -5.41689 0.0000 8 108 Breitung t-stat -5.72352 0.0000 8 100 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Variabel TP

- Metode dengan intersep dan tanpa trend Panel unit root test: Summary

Series: TP

Date: 06/21/12 Time: 19:14 Sample: 1996 2010

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 2 Andrews bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Cross-

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Levin, Lin & Chu t* -13.8588 0.0000 8 100 Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Dalam dokumen Analisis Faktor – Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kesenjangan Tabungan dan Investasi Domestik di Kawasan ASEAN 5+3 (Halaman 154-186)