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Lampiran 1. Jenis-Jenis Alur SCP
1. Alur yang bersifat linear ( Phillips 1974 dalam Kartika 2003)
S C P
2. Alur yang bersifat non linear (Scherer 1974) Kondisi Awal Supply, Row materials,
Technology, Product, Durability, Value / Weight,
Bussiness attitude, Unionization
Demand, Price elasticity, Rate of growth, Substutes,
Market tipe, Purcase method, Cyclical and seasonal character
Market Share
Number of seller and buyers, Product differentiation, Barrier to entry, Cost structure, Vertical integration,
Conglomeratness
Conduct
Pricing behavior, Product strategy, Research and inovation, Advertising and Legal tactics
Performance
Production and allocative efficiency, Progress, Fullemployment
Tecnology
Demand
Performance
3. Alur yang bersifat interaktif
Progressiveness Profitability Sales Effort Structure Strategy Conduct
Keterangan : Nilai tambah dari tahun 1983 sampai 1989 lebih besar dari seharusnya karena belum termasukFaktor tertentu seperti belum dikenakan pajak dan sebagainya.
TAHUN Jumlah Total Nilai Upah Nilai Impor Bahan Baku Total Nilai Biaya Input Total Nilai Biaya Output Nilai Tambah Nilai Produksi
(Juta Rupiah) CPI Perusahaan (Juta Rupiah) (Juta Rupiah) (Juta Rupiah) (Juta Rupiah) (Juta Rupiah) 4 Terbesar Total
1983 20 6704150 37414 7249519 11540401 4297989 9650235 11402190 39.35 1984 23 7039723 98849 7582453 12168543 4592005 9866525 12112088 43.465 1985 37 9677780 205419 13767521 22041123 8542425 16242540 20974086 45.52 1986 34 9521644 162714 16790581 36398988 19611473 30727544 35724622 48,.73 1987 35 13839241 94106 12327142 32102331 19775839 24755433 30958118 52.641 1988 36 15643366 77526 23985902 35797810 11814008 26204283 33702601 56.875 1989 36 17603785 679895 28492476 43073266 14691895 33727704 42723475 60.525 1990 171 286420401 263619298 691362912 1149831321 458468409 331540654 1115379567 65.254 1991 170 355025901 369829669 940870545 1746642767 805772222 713906562 1724062234 71.395 1992 169 385313211 255924364 795839929 1223328568 427488639 231092845 1138545628 76.771 1993 167 482704848 376256191 1172671806 1958498552 785826746 518985134 1814076170 84.205 1994 163 571544927 530295723 1567711464 2767628737 1199917273 767236166 2528883524 91.38 1995 161 639049537 609425802 1780110265 2733259791 953149526 600944777 2371634540 100 1996 158 361431114 583240669 2049561762 3293633871 1244072109 691873371 2870027211 107.97 1997 164 620029348 678140473 2056665365 3429930587 1373265222 797161880 3136808525 115.24 1998 160 1629450281 1076380877 2690898038 4605059230 1914161192 1222610647 4300690122 181.66 1999 157 730926128 1627512294 3488757526 6728521405 3239763879 1881524430 6446457327 218.58 2000 149 763671720 2365566345 4745775986 8523499305 3777723319 2730232404 8290174596 228.46 2001 135 605438904 5062057248 9517702160 14837531502 5319829342 7276093458 14469341084 255.91 2002 149 895737762 2827475343 6529285664 13692082147 7162796483 6580576311 13301468880 285.25 2003 144 908850027 3394012192 7794353540 15309010785 7514657245 7281248808 14700928831 212.7
Keterangan : Data di atas merupakan data yang telah diriilkan dengan menggunakan Consumen Price Index (CPI)
Tahun PCM CR4 XEFF GROWTH IMPOR
% % % % Juta Rupiah 1984 -0.46278909 1.874155057 1.393326642 0.12522679 2274.220637 1985 -0.11316072 1.701251994 1.363085737 1.782337018 4512.719684 1986 0.57542775 1.785486266 2.424603887 1.352235877 3377.701202 1987 0.35129902 1.519049216 3.047532797 -0.224242148 1787.694003 1988 -0.18808238 1.367059611 0.866003797 0.20240105 1363.094505 1989 -0.11169465 1.304323773 0.851947488 0.33579093 11233.29203 1990 0.22930228 0.455519494 1.016239798 39.37655791 4039894.842 1991 0.36146005 0.579990176 1.199539686 0.72700134 5180049.989 1992 0.04490753 0.264386248 0.699683536 -0.390266462 3333607.274 1993 0.18380452 0.339751607 0.795815589 0.713685329 4468335.503 1994 0.24846091 0.332008411 0.837594886 0.452109877 5803192.416 1995 0.11491772 0.25338844 0.535444093 -0.012418192 6094258.02 1996 0.24820223 0.223273664 0.562187833 0.189886472 5401877.086 1997 0.19056468 0.220523696 0.57941207 0.03590929 5884592.789 1998 0.03403373 0.156491485 0.39158131 0.188599602 5925249.791 1999 0.17058566 0.13352984 0.424846604 0.210959403 7445842.685 2000 0.15478276 0.144153691 0.348427753 0.116769466 10354400.53 2001 0.12415855 0.196499866 0.218412924 0.289468696 19780615.25 2002 0.16046068 0.17343577 0.384584068 -0.027063788 9912271.141 2003 0.2028698 0.232862595 0.453281205 0.055521347 15957028.98 Rata2 0.484086692 0.919677585 2.27502349 5480288.251
Lampiran 4. Hasil Output Komputer Ordinary Least Squares Estimation
******************************************************************************* Dependent variable is PCM
20 observations used for estimation from 1984 to 2003
******************************************************************************* Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio [Prob]
CONST -.022740 .10595 -.21463 [.833]
CR4 -.37500 .091057 -4.1183 [.001]
XEFF .37946 .074222 5.1125 [.000]
GROWTH .3591E-3 .0039202 .091605 [.928] IMPORT .1004E-7 .1068E-7 .93921 [.364] DUMMY -.021437 .10314 -.20785 [.838] ******************************************************************************* R-Squared .69247 R-Bar-Squared .58264 S.E. of Regression .14373 F-stat. F( 5, 14) 6.3048[.003] Mean of Dependent Variable .12598 S.D. of Dependent Variable .22247
Residual Sum of Squares .28920 Equation Log-likelihood 13.9850 Akaike Info. Criterion 7.9850 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion 4.9978 DW-statistic 2.4040 ******************************************************************************* Diagnostic Tests ******************************************************************************* * Test Statistics * LM Version * F Version *
******************************************************************************* * * * * * A:Serial Correlation*CHSQ( 1)= 4.4671[.035]*F( 1, 13)= 3.7387[.075]* * * * * * B:Functional Form *CHSQ( 1)= 8.7930[.003]*F( 1, 13)= 10.1997[.007]* * * * *
* C:Normality *CHSQ( 2)= 4.7871[.091]* Not applicable *
* * * *
* D:Heteroscedasticity*CHSQ( 1)= 1.7392[.187]*F( 1, 18)= 1.7143[.207]*
******************************************************************************* A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey's RESET test using the square of the fitted values C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
Exact AR(1) Inverse Interpolation Method Converged after 7 iterations
******************************************************************************* Dependent variable is PCM
20 observations used for estimation from 1984 to 2003
******************************************************************************* Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob]
CONST -.051062 .079448 -.64271[.531] CR4 -.38901 .070175 -5.5434[.000] XEFF .41249 .062216 6.6300[.000] GROWTH .0019721 .0034116 .57805[.572] IMPORT .1057E-7 .8782E-8 1.2038[.249] DUMMY -.0076604 .075760 -.10112[.921]
******************************************************************************* R-Squared .74631 R-Bar-Squared .62922
S.E. of Regression .13547 F-stat. F( 6, 13) 6.3738[.003] Mean of Dependent Variable .12598 S.D. of Dependent Variable .22247 Residual Sum of Squares .23857 Equation Log-likelihood 15.7812 Akaike Info. Criterion 8.7812 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion 5.2961 DW-statistic 2.2185
******************************************************************************* Parameters of the Autoregressive Error Specification
******************************************************************************* U= -.47565*U(-1)+E
( -2.4183)[.031]
T-ratio(s) based on asymptotic standard errors in brackets
Log-likelihood ratio test of AR(1) versus OLS CHI-SQ(1)= 3.5924[.058]
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 -2 -1 0 1 2 No rm a l S c o re Residual
Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals (response is PCM) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 5 10 Residual F req uen c y
Histogram of the Residuals (response is PCM) Lampiran 5. Diagnostic Tests Correlations
PCM CR4 XEFF GROWTH IMPORT DUMMY PCM 1,000 -,303 ,258 ,116 ,216 ,075 CR4 -,303 1,000 ,765 -,049 -,709 -,565 XEFF ,258 ,765 1,000 ,049 -,626 -,550 GROWTH ,116 -,049 ,049 1,000 -,079 -,185 IMPORT ,216 -,709 -,626 -,079 1,000 ,738 Pearson Correlation DUMMY ,075 -,565 -,550 -,185 ,738 1,000 Residual Histogram for PCM
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Fitted Value R e si du al
Residuals Versus the Fitted Values (response is PCM)
Residuals vs Fits for PCM