1. Adanya krisis memang tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tambah manufaktur baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Namun, untuk kedepannya sebaiknya pemerintah mencermati tanda-tanda akan terjadinya
46
krisis sehingga dapat mengurangi dampak yang ditimbulkannya (defisit pertumbuhan ekonomi).
2. Peningkatan kinerja produktivitas manufaktur dapat dilakukan dengan menambahkan faktor input produksi yaitu jumlah tenaga kerja dan modal. Dengan bertambahnya input produksi diharapkan akan meningkatkan output produksi sehingga meningkatkan nilai tambah manufaktur. Peningkatkan tenaga kerja yang mempunyai keterampilan lebih dan peningkatkan modal untuk mesin-mesin industri diharapkan mampu meningkatkan produktivitas. 3. Peningkatan kinerja perdagangan manufaktur dapat dilakukan dengan
meningkatkan daya saing produk. Langkah untuk meningkatkan daya saing produk adalah dengan memberikan nilai tambah bagi komoditas yang akan diekspor serta melakukan diversifikasi terhadap produk ekspor manufaktur.
Bagi Penelitian Selanjutnya :
1. Penelitian selanjutnya disarankan lebih bervariasi dalam pemilihan variabel yang digunakan dalam model baik dari segi ekonomi maupun sosial.
2. Sebaiknya penelitian dilakukan panel antara time series dan cross section
dengan menggunakan provinsi-provinsi di Indonesia agar mengetahui pengaruhnya di setiap daerah dan Indonesia secara keseluruhan.
3. Jika memilih menggunakan data time series, periode waktu yang digunakan dalam penelitian sebaiknya ditambahkan atau minimal 30 periode waktu agar lebih mudah diestimasi.
47
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52
Lampiran 1 Industri-industri pada Sektor Manufaktur Berdasarkan Kategori KBLI Digit 2:
Kode
Industri Deskripsi
15 Makanan dan Minuman 16 Tembakau
17 Tekstil 18 Pakaian jadi
19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit
20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas
22 Penerbitan, percetakan, dan reproduksi
23 Batu bara, minyak dan gas bumi, dan bahan bakar dari nuklir 24 Kimia dan barang-barang dari bahan kimia
25 Karet dan barang-barang dari plastik 26 Barang galian selain logam
27 Logam dasar
28 Barang-barang dari logam dan peralatannya 29 Mesin dan perlengkapannya
30 Peralatan kantor, akuntansi, dan pengolahan data 31 Mesin listrik lainnya dan perlengkapannya 32 Radio, televisi, dan peralatan komunikasi
33 Peralatan kedokteran, alat ukur, navigasi, optik, dan jam 34 Kendaraan bermotor
35 Alat angkutan lainnya
53 Lampiran 2 Uji stasioner Phillip-Perron
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) Series: LOGMVA, LOGLABOR, LOGCAP, IMO, EXO, DUMMY Date: 10/19/16 Time: 18:05
Sample: 1988 2015 Exogenous variables: None
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel Total (balanced) observations: 162
Cross-sections included: 6
Method Statistic Prob.**
PP - Fisher Chi-square 25.3843 0.0131
PP - Choi Z-stat 1.67232 0.9528
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate Phillips-Perron test results UNTITLED
Series Prob. Bandwidth Obs
LOGMVA 1.0000 2.0 27 LOGLABOR 0.9715 3.0 27 LOGCAP 0.9653 0.0 27 IMO 0.5804 22.0 27 EXO 0.5181 5.0 27 DUMMY 0.0000 2.0 27
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) Series: LOGMVA, LOGLABOR, LOGCAP, IMO, EXO, DUMMY Date: 10/19/16 Time: 18:06
Sample: 1988 2015 Exogenous variables: None
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel Total (balanced) observations: 156
Cross-sections included: 6
Method Statistic Prob.**
PP - Fisher Chi-square 239.435 0.0000
PP - Choi Z-stat -12.6822 0.0000
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate Phillips-Perron test results D(UNTITLED)
Series Prob. Bandwidth Obs
D(LOGMVA) 0.0394 6.0 26 D(LOGLABOR) 0.0025 2.0 26 D(LOGCAP) 0.0011 4.0 26 D(IMO) 0.0000 25.0 26 D(EXO) 0.0000 3.0 26 D(DUMMY) 0.0000 4.0 26
54
Lampiran 3 Uji Kointegrasi Null Hypothesis: ECT_1 has a unit root Exogenous: None
Bandwidth: 3 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.*
Phillips-Perron test statistic -3.150894 0.0028
Test critical values: 1% level -2.653401
5% level -1.953858
10% level -1.609571
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Residual variance (no correction) 0.009971
HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 0.010496
Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(ECT_1) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/19/16 Time: 18:14 Sample (adjusted): 1989 2015
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
ECT_1(-1) -0.518858 0.166480 -3.116637 0.0044
R-squared 0.271255 Mean dependent var -0.003697
Adjusted R-squared 0.271255 S.D. dependent var 0.119199
S.E. of regression 0.101756 Akaike info criterion -1.696148
Sum squared resid 0.269210 Schwarz criterion -1.648154
Log likelihood 23.89799 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.681876
55 Lampiran 4 Model ECM jangka panjang
Dependent Variable: LOGMVA Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/16 Time: 22:50 Sample: 1988 2015
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LOGLABOR 0.912291 0.240415 3.794658 0.0010 LOGCAP 1.046202 0.230358 4.541630 0.0002 EXO 0.056104 0.017557 3.195649 0.0042 IMO -0.078929 0.020378 -3.873185 0.0008 DUMMY 0.118520 0.091216 1.299328 0.2073 C -15.61449 5.310503 -2.940303 0.0076
R-squared 0.924814 Mean dependent var 34.56264
Adjusted R-squared 0.907726 S.D. dependent var 0.429894
S.E. of regression 0.130587 Akaike info criterion -1.046143
Sum squared resid 0.375166 Schwarz criterion -0.760670
Log likelihood 20.64600 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.958871
F-statistic 54.12152 Durbin-Watson stat 1.985659
56
Lampiran 5 Model ECM jangka pendek Dependent Variable: D(LOGMVA)
Method: Least Squares Date: 10/19/16 Time: 08:50 Sample (adjusted): 1989 2015
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LOGLABOR) 0.467457 0.138776 3.368424 0.0028
D(LOGCAP) 0.346456 0.092349 3.751603 0.0011
D(EXO) 0.004318 0.005396 0.800349 0.0432
D(IMO) -0.008220 0.006789 -1.210802 0.0238
ECT_1(-1) -0.129934 0.084961 -1.529341 0.0140
R-squared 0.902938 Mean dependent var 0.057885
Adjusted R-squared 0.865700 S.D. dependent var 0.046642
S.E. of regression 0.450803 Akaike info criterion -3.195029
Sum squared resid 0.044715 Schwarz criterion -2.955059
Log likelihood 48.13289 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.123673
57 Lampiran 6 Model FEVD
Period S.E. LOGMVA LOGCAP LOGLABOR EXO IMO
1 0.038263 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 0.070955 88.40881 0.008941 9.007489 2.303307 0.271449 3 0.094232 74.79341 5.180508 16.01957 3.410928 0.595591 4 0.113902 65.85093 9.108066 19.19557 5.325181 0.520253 5 0.131319 62.00234 10.94828 20.80887 5.630790 0.609722 6 0.144560 57.59275 12.71339 22.41883 6.582195 0.692831 7 0.155276 55.25495 13.95740 22.96363 7.113737 0.710287 8 0.165666 54.73310 13.86079 22.95964 7.764536 0.681929 9 0.176155 54.27516 13.76024 23.03363 8.219899 0.711068 10 0.186252 53.75483 13.76150 22.98148 8.795780 0.706402 11 0.196847 53.72588 13.51428 22.89220 9.178180 0.689463 12 0.207571 53.48362 13.34493 22.86307 9.621675 0.686700 13 0.217779 53.01422 13.39179 22.90146 9.997109 0.695429 14 0.227611 52.73406 13.35202 22.87967 10.34900 0.685245 15 0.237328 52.49447 13.27282 22.89034 10.65981 0.682572 16 0.246585 52.18186 13.28021 22.87850 10.97376 0.685671 17 0.255512 51.98107 13.24497 22.85319 11.23842 0.682348 18 0.264356 51.85979 13.15972 22.81748 11.48597 0.677039 19 0.273008 51.69188 13.11560 22.79315 11.72165 0.677710 20 0.281393 51.55388 13.08008 22.75629 11.93381 0.675935 21 0.289673 51.46156 13.01455 22.72710 12.12476 0.672026 22 0.297803 51.34806 12.97034 22.70183 12.30876 0.671014 23 0.305700 51.23277 12.94235 22.67601 12.47855 0.670319 24 0.313443 51.15253 12.89890 22.64942 12.63147 0.667684 25 0.321062 51.07004 12.85831 22.62789 12.77760 0.666169
58
RIWAYAT HIDUP
Penulis lahir di Klaten pada tanggal 11 November 1987 merupakan putri bungsu dari pasangan Bapak Suyono dan Ibu Hartiyem. Penulis menamatkan sekolah dasar pada SD Karanganom 1 pada tahun 1999, kemudian melanjutkan ke SMP Negeri 2 Klaten dan lulus pada tahun 2002. Pada tahun yang sama penulis diterima di SMA Negeri 1 Klaten dan lulus pada tahun 2005. Penulis diterima sebagai mahasiswa S1 di Universitas Gadjah Mada jurusan matematika program studi statistika pada tahun 2005 dan menyelesaikan pendidikan pada tahun 2009. Pada tahun 2010, penulis bekerja sebagai asisten dosen dan mengajar di Universitas Respati Yogyakarta untuk mata kuliah biostatistika selama 6 bulan. Penulis kemudian diterima sebagai koordinator lapangan dalam sensus penduduk 2010 yang merupakan program kerjasama dengan BPS. Penulis diterima sebagai Calon Pegawai Negeri Sipil di Kemeterian Perdagangan pada tahun penerimaan 2010 dan mulai aktif bekerja pada awal tahun 2011. Pada tahun 2013, penulis memperoleh kesempatan untuk melanjutkan studi program master pada Program Studi Ilmu Ekonomi IPB. Kesempatan studi ini merupakan beasiswa yang diberikan oleh Kementerian Perdagangan dan IPB.