BAB V KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
B. Saran
Saran peneliti bagi pemerintah yaitu dilihat dari kesimpulan analisis sebelumnya, pengeluaran pemerintah menjadi kontribusi terbesar terhadap PDB Indonesia dalam model penelitian ini. Maka pemerintah diharapkan fokus terhadap pengelolaan pengeluaran pemerintah dalam bentuk APBN maupun APBD di daerah. Jika anggaran tersebut tersalurkan ke dalam sektor produktif seperti membangun pabrik maka dampaknya selain meningkatkan produksi domestik, akan tetapi juga dapat meningkatkan lapangan pekerjaan sehingga diharapkan dapat menurunkan tingkat pengangguran.
Untuk utang luar negeri (ULN) peneliti menyarankan pemerintah dapat mengawasi besarnya jumlah utang tersebut dan dapat mengelola utang luar negeri tersebut ke dalam sektor produktif daripada sektor konsumtif. Hal ini penting karena ditakutkan krisis 1997-1998 terulang kembali yang disebabkan oleh utang luar negeri Indonesia. Sedangkan, untuk akumulasi modal pemerintah sebaiknya memobilisasi tabungan dan investasi lalu menyalurkannya ke bidang usaha yang lebih produktif untuk meningkatkan PDB, seperti pembangunan industri, pembangunan infrastruktur publik, pelatihan untuk meningkatkan kualitas sumber daya manusia dan lainnya.
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DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Adhikary, Bishnu Kumar. 2015. Dynamic Effects of FDI, Trade Openness, Capital Formation and Human Capital on the Economic Growth Rate in the Least Developed Economies: Evidence from Nepal. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance Vol 6(1), 1-7.
Al-Fawwaz, Torki. M. 2016. The Impact of Government Expenditures on Economic Growth in Jordan (1980-2013). International Journal of Business Research Vol 9(1), 99-105. Badan Pusat Statistik. 2016. “Statistik Indonesia”, Beberapa edisi. Yogyakarta: Bank Indonesia. Bank Indonesia. Pengertian Produk Domestik Bruto. Diunduh dari
http://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/metadata/seki/Documents/14.%20PDB-Produk%20Domestik%20Bruto%20(IND)%202016.pdf [internet]. Diakses pada 16 Desember 2016.
Bonokeling, Daniel Eka. 2016. Pengaruh Utang Luar negeri, Tenaga Kerja dan Ekspor Terhadap Produk Domesti Bruto di Indonesia Tahun 1986-2015 [SKRIPSI]. Yogyakarta :
Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta.
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Gujarati, Damodar., Porter, Dawn. 2007. Dasar-dasar Ekonometrika jilid 1. Jakarta: Erlangga. L.A, Sulaiman., B.A, Azeez. 2012. Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth of Nigeria.
Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, Vol 3(8), 71-79.
Mahmoud, Limam Ould Mohamed. 2015. The Role of External Debt on Economic Growth: Evidence from Mauritania. International Journal of Economics & Management Sciences Vol 4 Issue 4, 1-6.
Mankiw, N. Gregory. 2007. Makroekonomi. Edisi Keenam. Jakarta: Erlangga.
Safari, Menik Fitriani. 2016. Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor, Pembentukan Modal, dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia [SKRIPSI]. Yogyakarta :
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Soliu, Adegboyega., Ibrahim, Odusanya. 2014. Empirical Analysis of Trade Opennes, Capital Formation, FDI, and Economic Growth: Nigeria Experience. The International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention Vol 1 issue 1, 36-50.
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http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators . World Development Indicators. [internet]. Diakses pada 5 Desember 2016.
28 LAMPIRAN
DATA VARIABEL DEPENDEN DAN INDEPENDEN
Tahun PDB Utang Luar Negeri Akumulasi Modal Pengeluaran Pemerintah
1985 87,338,874,330 36,714,624,000 29,856,392,553 9,808,388,099.37 1986 80,060,657,612 43,871,322,000 32,503,904,066 8,833,114,061.01 1987 75,929,617,715 64,535,588,000 34,284,851,803 7,156,066,665.21 1988 88,787,623,310 69,840,237,000 42,749,827,876 7,567,064,223.94 1989 101,455,197,786 73,713,470,000 48,010,792,223 8,868,399,470.28 1990 114,426,498,045 86,461,282,000 53,235,652,679 10,119,870,548.52 1991 128,167,999,846 89,640,000,000 58,330,881,693 10,657,021,364.65 1992 139,116,270,052 109,871,608,000 64,307,748,757 12,183,386,733.02 1993 158,006,849,879 121,371,420,000 64,166,561,589 14,257,437,601.20 1994 176,892,148,243 140,113,600,000 74,867,629,353 14,353,349,895.87 1995 202,132,032,844 148,660,588,000 84,645,867,503 15,825,045,241.21 1996 227,369,671,349 140,660,588,000 88,825,782,913 17,204,969,469.20 1997 215,748,854,647 269,049,000,000 94,433,351,359 14,763,283,680.73 1998 95,445,548,017 573,538,725,000 57,569,229,353 5,434,199,890.68 1999 140,001,352,527 573,140,400,000 44,191,735,414 9,246,329,309.41 2000 165,021,012,261 782,462,655,000 51,912,329,058 10,779,164,212.81 2001 160,446,947,638 742,320,800,000 56,357,881,800 11,053,285,490.12 2002 195,660,611,034 700,967,520,000 53,844,256,751 14,199,987,339.97 2003 234,772,458,818 733,551,505,000 59,680,565,377 19,085,795,197.20 2004 256,836,883,304 812,800,680,000 63,800,634,748 21,373,634,030.04 2005 285,868,619,206 1,322,174,320,000 71,699,880,270 23,182,537,666.10 2006 364,570,515,631 1,196,349,660,000 72,663,212,682 31,452,113,671.32 2007 432,216,737,775 1,329,774,420,000 74,069,061,658 36,074,838,967.29 2008 510,228,634,992 1,698,126,000,000 83,283,110,726 42,980,542,403.38 2009 539,580,085,612 1,624,987,400,000 85,302,748,007 51,741,295,652.64 2010 755,094,157,595 1,066,548,384,000 92,812,206,830 68,003,138,200.24 2011 892,969,104,530 1,075,845,656,000 100,116,953,179 80,891,188,808.20 2012 917,869,913,365 1,219,570,730,000 111,111,030,938 84,891,845,511.32 2013 912,524,136,718 1,505,926,572,000 115,574,361,017 86,851,491,925.09 2014 890,487,074,596 1,613,915,840,000 120,647,648,910 83,959,519,785.69 Keterangan:
PDB = Dalam US$ Dollar
Utang Luar Negeri = Dalam Rupiah
Akumulasi Modal = Dalam US$ Dollar
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HASIL UJI STASIONER (UNIT ROOT TEST) 1. HASIL UJI STASIONER TINGKAT LEVEL
Series: LOGPDB, LOGUTANG, LOGMODAL, LOGGOV
Date: 12/27/16 Time: 11:45 Sample: 1985 2014
Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 Total (balanced) observations: 116
Cross-sections included: 4
Method Statistic Prob.**
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 2.94200 0.9379 ADF - Choi Z-stat 1.60876 0.9462 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi
-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate ADF test results UNTITLED
Series Prob. Lag Max Lag Obs
LOGPDB 0.9360 0 6 29
LOGUTANG 0.5051 0 6 29
LOGMODAL 0.5108 0 6 29
30 2. HASIL UJI STASIONER FIRST DIFFERENCE
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) Series: LOGPDB, LOGUTANG, LOGMODAL,
LOGGOV
Date: 12/26/16 Time: 20:49 Sample: 1985 2014
Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 Total (balanced) observations: 112
Cross-sections included: 4
Method Statistic Prob.**
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 58.2811 0.0000 ADF - Choi Z-stat -6.33179 0.0000 ** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi
-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate ADF test results D(UNTITLED)
Series Prob. Lag Max Lag Obs
D(LOGPDB) 0.0001 0 6 28
D(LOGUTANG) 0.0015 0 6 28 D(LOGMODAL) 0.0076 0 6 28
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HASIL UJI KOINTEGRASI
Null Hypothesis: ECT has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.751200 0.0084 Test critical values: 1% level -3.679322
5% level -2.967767 10% level -2.622989 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(ECT)
Method: Least Squares Date: 12/26/16 Time: 20:48 Sample (adjusted): 1986 2014
Included observations: 29 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. ECT(-1) -0.697195 0.185859 -3.751200 0.0009 C -0.001163 0.008766 -0.132712 0.8954 R-squared 0.342610 Mean dependent var -0.002221 Adjusted R-squared 0.318262 S.D. dependent var 0.057145 S.E. of regression 0.047183 Akaike info criterion -3.203100 Sum squared resid 0.060108 Schwarz criterion -3.108804 Log likelihood 48.44495 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.173567 F-statistic 14.07150 Durbin-Watson stat 1.772842 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000852
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HASIL ESTIMASI OLS (JANGKA PANJANG)
Dependent Variable: LOGPDB Method: Least Squares Date: 12/26/16 Time: 20:50 Sample: 1985 2014
Included observations: 30
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -1.871425 0.783603 -2.388230 0.0245
LOGUTANG 0.108285 0.010713 10.10753 0.0000
LOGMODAL 0.352666 0.044952 7.845331 0.0000
LOGGOV 0.691270 0.021541 32.09034 0.0000
R-squared 0.996386 Mean dependent var 26.16102
Adjusted R-squared 0.995969 S.D. dependent var 0.796255
S.E. of regression 0.050554 Akaike info criterion -3.007983
Sum squared resid 0.066448 Schwarz criterion -2.821157
Log likelihood 49.11975 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.948216
F-statistic 2389.445 Durbin-Watson stat 1.378172
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
HASIL ESTIMASI ECM (JANGKA PENDEK)
Dependent Variable: D(LOGPDB) Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/26/16 Time: 20:47 Sample (adjusted): 1986 2014
Included observations: 29 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.013142 0.012743 1.031351 0.3127
D(LOGUTANG) 0.023604 0.053017 0.445206 0.6602
D(LOGMODAL) 0.240004 0.070888 3.385686 0.0024
D(LOGGOV) 0.717163 0.049811 14.39772 0.0000
ECT(-1) -0.532758 0.184037 -2.894852 0.0080
R-squared 0.960094 Mean dependent var 0.080068
Adjusted R-squared 0.953443 S.D. dependent var 0.203293
S.E. of regression 0.043865 Akaike info criterion -3.259822
Sum squared resid 0.046179 Schwarz criterion -3.024081
Log likelihood 52.26741 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.185991
F-statistic 144.3517 Durbin-Watson stat 1.922523
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HASIL UJI LINEARITAS
Ramsey RESET Test Equation: UNTITLED
Specification: LOGPDB C LOGUTANG LOGMODAL LOGGOV Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values
Value df Probability t-statistic 0.593591 25 0.5581 F-statistic 0.352351 (1, 25) 0.5581 Likelihood ratio 0.419869 1 0.5170 F-test summary: Sum of Sq. df Mean Squares Test SSR 0.000924 1 0.000924 Restricted SSR 0.066448 26 0.002556 Unrestricted SSR 0.065525 25 0.002621 LR test summary: Value df Restricted LogL 49.11975 26 Unrestricted LogL 49.32968 25
Unrestricted Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOGPDB Method: Least Squares Date: 12/27/16 Time: 00:01 Sample: 1985 2014
Included observations: 30
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 7.847868 16.39293 0.478735 0.6363
LOGUTANG 0.039548 0.116306 0.340035 0.7367
LOGMODAL 0.132860 0.373086 0.356111 0.7247
LOGGOV 0.227154 0.782182 0.290410 0.7739
FITTED^2 0.012516 0.021085 0.593591 0.5581
R-squared 0.996436 Mean dependent var 26.16102
Adjusted R-squared 0.995866 S.D. dependent var 0.796255
S.E. of regression 0.051196 Akaike info criterion -2.955312
Sum squared resid 0.065525 Schwarz criterion -2.721779
Log likelihood 49.32968 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.880603
F-statistic 1747.532 Durbin-Watson stat 1.480067
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HASIL UJI NORMALITAS
HASIL UJI MULTIKOLINEARITAS
Variance Inflation Factors Date: 12/26/16 Time: 20:50 Sample: 1985 2014
Included observations: 30
Coefficient Uncentered Centered Variable Variance VIF VIF
C 0.614034 7207.795 NA LOGUTANG 0.000115 956.9116 2.149121 LOGMODAL 0.002021 14712.39 3.088966 LOGGOV 0.000464 3057.429 3.677762
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HASIL UJI HETEROSKEDASTISITAS
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 1.631126 Prob. F(9,20) 0.1732 Obs*R-squared 12.69903 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.1767 Scaled explained SS 7.504559 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.5847
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/26/16 Time: 20:51 Sample: 1985 2014
Included observations: 30
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2.534105 3.790002 0.668629 0.5114 LOGUTANG^2 0.002463 0.001803 1.366108 0.1871 LOGUTANG*LOGMODAL -0.016048 0.007127 -2.251703 0.0357 LOGUTANG*LOGGOV 0.000343 0.003010 0.114048 0.9103 LOGUTANG 0.260330 0.095168 2.735474 0.0127 LOGMODAL^2 0.021203 0.014770 1.435523 0.1666 LOGMODAL*LOGGOV -0.007844 0.011431 -0.686257 0.5004 LOGMODAL -0.456545 0.409405 -1.115144 0.2780 LOGGOV^2 0.004433 0.002963 1.496034 0.1503 LOGGOV -0.018088 0.136183 -0.132818 0.8957 R-squared 0.423301 Mean dependent var 0.002215 Adjusted R-squared 0.163786 S.D. dependent var 0.002826 S.E. of regression 0.002584 Akaike info criterion -8.817611 Sum squared resid 0.000134 Schwarz criterion -8.350545 Log likelihood 142.2642 Hannan-Quinn criter. -8.668192 F-statistic 1.631126 Durbin-Watson stat 1.953215 Prob(F-statistic) 0.173218
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HASIL UJI AUTOKORELASI
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.854681 Prob. F(2,24) 0.1782 Obs*R-squared 4.016003 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1343
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 12/26/16 Time: 20:51 Sample: 1985 2014
Included observations: 30
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.160287 0.763835 0.209845 0.8356 LOGUTANG 0.000804 0.010685 0.075243 0.9406 LOGMODAL -0.008690 0.043806 -0.198382 0.8444 LOGGOV 0.001464 0.021202 0.069044 0.9455 RESID(-1) 0.370306 0.203038 1.823828 0.0807 RESID(-2) -0.225908 0.207284 -1.089844 0.2866 R-squared 0.133867 Mean dependent var -1.18E-15 Adjusted R-squared -0.046578 S.D. dependent var 0.047868 S.E. of regression 0.048970 Akaike info criterion -3.018366 Sum squared resid 0.057553 Schwarz criterion -2.738127 Log likelihood 51.27549 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.928715 F-statistic 0.741873 Durbin-Watson stat 1.909352 Prob(F-statistic) 0.599738