Saran - KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN - Dampak kebijakan provisi sumberdaya hutan dan dana reboisasi ter

VII. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

7.2 Saran

7.2.1. Saran Kebijakan

1. Untuk menambah pasokan input bahan baku, perlu melakukan diversifikasi jenis bahan baku dari hutan alam, meningkatkan produktifitas hutan alam dan meningkatkan kinerja hutan tanaman serta memberikan kemudahan impor bahan baku.

2. Melakukan restrukturisasi industri kehutanan berbasis competitiveness, dimana perusahaan yang memiliki kinerja baik diberikan reward yang memacu prestasi, sedangkan yang tidak baik diberikan pinalty yang membuat efek jera. 3. Perlu melakukan evaluasi menyeluruh dan tindakan cepat dan sistematis

mengenai peluang ekonomi kayu untuk memenuhi harapan penerimaan lebih besar dari sektor kehutanan, khususnya menghadapi situasi ekonomi dan politik berbeda dibandingkan zaman keemasan kayu tahun 1980/90an, termasuk merumuskan nilai PSDH dan DR yang bisa memotivasi perusahaan bisa melakukan kegiatan bisnis yang sehat, serta pemerintah mendapat jaminan penerimaan jangka panjang

7.2.2. Saran Penelitian

1. Perlu meneliti pengaruh kuota produksi kayu bulat terhadap kesejahteraan akibat penerapan PSDH dan DR.

2. Perlu meneliti pengaruh tarif dan non tarif yang dikenakan kepada pasar output industri perkayuan terhadap kesejahteraan produsen dan konsumen.

3. Perlu meneliti pengaruh moratorium pemberian izin baru pengusahaan kayu bulat terhadap kesejahteraan produsesn dan konsumen

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103 Tahun PQ1 PQ2 PQ3 PL PT1 PT2 PT3 PE GDP I1 I2 I3 QKL 1995 280574.04 137638.11 297.74 63789.71 105955.27 33755.95 31474.10 141.60 1219712.17 63036503.90 164247.97 162200.00 9500000.00 1996 347010.93 178464.96 369.34 78603.97 148295.79 37489.01 43255.94 153.89 1315071.55 66978092.00 218221.36 171815.00 9575000.00 1997 316858.33 155809.89 295.87 104666.19 134583.99 48591.97 40895.43 173.24 1376878.32 55124213.07 168225.99 108300.00 9600000.00 1998 1189220.82 1038343.61 885.33 202394.79 272653.67 94399.81 84378.91 335.59 1196139.28 62145775.09 99973.83 82604.00 7800000.00 1999 1869136.90 1850612.76 995.26 276640.53 290634.63 131789.35 99271.26 383.14 1205516.44 55124213.07 52918.00 85744.00 7500000.00 2000 2409895.00 2084759.00 2638.00 402156.00 377262.20 177280.00 132673.83 600.00 1264918.70 44032289.69 24165.52 58152.00 8200000.00 2001 2052605.41 1743928.24 1741.49 592597.60 383573.79 207446.83 110573.26 1342.30 1442984.60 44039094.69 11172.89 56299.00 7300000.00 2002 2585634.35 3484201.67 2533.65 734787.13 1464227.27 235934.57 416347.31 1868.07 1506124.40 44039094.69 30894.00 87614.00 7550000.00 2003 4600782.34 2765293.53 1814.58 864629.97 890188.36 341216.00 306676.87 2137.09 1579559.00 44039094.69 24194.00 100497.00 6111000.00 2004 5191782.77 2653048.38 3390.93 990712.90 1810479.24 306138.20 587355.08 2288.36 1660578.70 43941472.26 19200.00 112714.00 4514000.00 2005 6501696.64 1705594.45 3896.45 1169190.56 3914688.62 371347.30 1188330.19 8208.05 1750815.20 60914720.00 20527.00 142598.00 4534000.00 2006 6049184.64 3882595.57 5506.53 1457555.83 4392535.05 448273.24 1239197.41 9244.86 1847126.70 64245879.43 31784.51 200167.36 3812000.00 2007 8601085.38 4697672.03 10213.49 1682142.36 2524154.51 526126.14 740531.91 8648.68 1964327.30 60874720.00 49188.72 120395.24 3454000.00 2008 11099944.83 7096234.14 13177.84 2066047.96 4813034.87 654367.19 1368846.84 11988.14 2082315.90 59152642.69 182586.35 121370.09 3353000.00 2009 12625814.53 6370590.57 12506.39 2665416.92 6174042.65 744716.19 1012547.67 11603.48 2176975.50 59175390.72 324534.88 122344.95 2996000.00

Tahun QKG QP TREND QT1 QT2 QT3 IKL IKG IP IKB EKL EKG EP EKB

1995 6500000 2022000 1 42349207 308815.47 205877 1800 371900 684924 56000 8376000 371900 568892 30000 1996 7200000 2561000 2 46427102 284560.56 189707 3200 379000 636700 95900 8564000 379000 1128600 20000 1997 7100000 2979000 3 44757712 255535.68 170357.1 0 368000 796600 103000 8500000 368000 1285300 45000 1998 7000000 1895000 4 42901103 288126 192084 4600 575000 614300 149000 7424000 575000 1634400 125000 1999 6500000 1725000 5 38732625 537222.6 358148.4 9100 1300000 757200 197000 6290800 1300000 1176100 259000 2000 6500000 3726000 6 30532031 2270162.4 1513442 6000 1443000 756700 147000 5154000 1443000 1352800 1606000 2001 6750000 5587000 7 21611041 3340369.2 2226913 3500 2424000 564200 96000 6336000 2424000 1697900 1451900 2002 6230000 5587000 8 29128411 2545519.3 1697013 4733 2000000 590547 82041 5826000 2000000 2245066 1000000 2003 7620000 5587000 9 27743285 3243093.3 2142216 1744 2000000 559815 56026 5091929 2000000 2375587 800000 2004 4330000 5587000 10 29527067 4520328.9 2962339 10093 2000000 628750 61042 4004600 2000000 1676813 925400 2005 4330000 5587000 11 27163265 7179099.1 4269045 31846 1924299 654145 82501 3406000 1924200 2468880 675000 2006 4330000 3682000 12 10648280 7814654.2 4816476 91500 1924299 716625 54668 3087000 1924200 2761539 675000 2007 4330000 5282000 13 8611519.9 12932895 8386776 114500 89600 726023 54668 2768800 89600 2327400 675000 2008 4169000 5753000 14 12767416 15144441 9365832 81700 72100 812900 69300 2568200 72100 2621500 0 2009 4169000 4863000 15 5895243.1 14414263 8342048 56915 49900 787228 39700 2204656 49900 2620600 0 Ke te rangan

PQ1: Harga riil kayu bulat hutan alam (Rp/m3) I1: Stok produksi kayu bulat hutan alam produksi (m3) QT3: Produksi kayu bulat HTI pulp (m3) PQ2: Harga riil kayu bulat HTI perkakas (Rp/m3) I2: Luas HTI Perkakas (Ha) IKL: impor kayu lapis (m3)

PQ3: Harga riil bulat HTI pulp (Rp/m3) I3: Luas HTI Pulp (Ha) IKG: Impor kayu gergaji (m3)

PL: Upah rill tenaga kerja (Rp/bulan) QKL : Poduksi kayu lapis (m3) IP: Impor pulp (ton)

PT1 : Harga riil kayu bulat hutan alam (Rp/m3) QKG: Produksi kayu gergaji (m3) IKB: Impor kayu bulat (m3)

PT2: Harga rill kayu bulat HTI perkakas (Rp/m3) QP: Produksi pulp EKL: Ekspor kayu lapis (m3)

PT3: Harga riil kayu bulat HTI pulp (Rp/m3) TREND : kecenderungaan (teknologi) EKG: Ekspor kayu gergaji (m3) PE: Harga riil bahan bakar solar QT1: Produksi kayu bulat hutan alam (m3) EP: Ekspor pulp (m3)

Lampiran 2. Program RATS untuk Estimasi Parameter

CAL 1995 ALL 2009:1

open data erwin.prn data(format=prn,org=obs) LOG QT1 / LnQT1 LOG QT2 / LnQT2 LOG QT3 / LnQT3 SET RQT1 = QT1/QT1{1} SET RQT2 = QT2/QT2{1} SET RQT3 = QT3/QT3{1} LOG RQT1 / LnRQT1 LOG RQT2 / LnRQT2 LOG RQT3 / LnRQT3 LOG QKL / LnQKL LOG QKG / LnQKG LOG QP / LnQP SET RQKL = QKL/QKL{1} SET RQKG = QKG/QKG{1} SET RQP = QP/QP{1} LOG RQKL / LnRQKL LOG RQKG / LnRQKG LOG RQP / LnRQP LOG PT1 / LnPT1 LOG PT2 / LnPT2 LOG PT3 / LnPT3 SET RPT1 = PT1/PT1{1} SET RPT2 = PT2/PT2{1} SET RPT3 = PT3/PT3{1} LOG RPT1 / LnRPT1 LOG RPT2 / LnRPT2 LOG RPT3 / LnRPT3 LOG PQ1 / LnPQ1 LOG PQ2 / LnPQ2 LOG PQ3 / LnPQ3 SET RPQ1 = PQ1/PQ1{1} SET RPQ2 = PQ2/PQ2{1} SET RPQ3 = PQ3/PQ3{1} LOG RPQ1 / LnRPQ1 LOG RPQ2 / LnRPQ2 LOG RPQ3 / LnRPQ3 LOG PL / LnPL

LOG PE / LnPE SET RPL = PL/PL{1} SET RPE = PE/PE{1} LOG RPL / LnRPL LOG RPE / LnRPE LOG I1 / LnI1 LOG I2 / LnI2 LOG I3 / LnI3 SET RI1 =I1/I1{1} SET RI2 =I2/I2{1} SET RI3 =I3/I3{1} LOG RI1 / LnRI1 LOG RI2 / LnRI2 LOG RI3 / LnRI3 LOG GDP / LnGDP

SET RGDP = GDP/GDP{1} LOG RGDP / LnRGDP

DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY 'OLS Regression for each equation' DISPLAY ' '

** OLS Regression for each equation linreg LnQT1 # constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP linreg LnQT1 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1 linreg LnQT2 # constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP linreg LnQT2 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2 linreg LnQT3 # constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP linreg LnQT3 # constant LnQP LnPT3 linreg LnQKL

# constant TREND LnPQ1 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE linreg LnQKL

# constant LnGDP LnPQ1 linreg LnQKG

# constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE linreg LnQKG

# constant LnGDP LnPQ2 linreg LnQP

# constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE linreg LnQP

DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY 'OLS+AR1 Regression for each equation' DISPLAY ' '

** AR1 Regression for each equation AR1 LnQT1 # constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP AR1 LnQT1 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1 AR1 LnQT2 # constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP AR1 LnQT2 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2 AR1 LnQT3 # constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP AR1 LnQT3 # constant LnQP LnPT3 AR1 LnQKL

# constant TREND LnPQ1 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE AR1 LnQKL

# constant LnGDP LnPQ1 AR1 LnQKG

# constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE AR1 LnQKG

# constant LnGDP LnPQ2 AR1 LnQP

# constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE AR1 LnQP

# constant LnGDP LnPQ3

DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY '2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations' DISPLAY ' '

** 2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations

INSTRUMENTS constant LnI1 LnI2 LnI3 LnGDP LnPL LnPE linreg(INST) LnQT1 # constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP linreg(INST) LnQT1 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1 linreg(INST) LnQT2 # constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP linreg(INST) LnQT2 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2 linreg(INST) LnQT3 # constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP linreg(INST) LnQT3 # constant LnQP LnPT3 linreg(INST) LnQKL

linreg(INST) LnQKL # constant LnGDP LnPQ1 linreg(INST) LnQKG

# constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE linreg(INST) LnQKG

# constant LnGDP LnPQ2 linreg(INST) LnQP

# constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE linreg(INST) LnQP

# constant LnGDP LnPQ3

DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY '2SLS+AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations' DISPLAY ' '

** 2SLS with AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS constant LnI1 LnI2 LnI3 LnGDP LnPL LnPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQT1 # constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQT1 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQT2 # constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQT2 # constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQT3 # constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQT3 # constant LnQP LnPT3 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQKL

# constant TREND LnPQ1 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQKL

# constant LnGDP LnPQ1 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQKG

# constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQKG

# constant LnGDP LnPQ2 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQP

# constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnQP

# constant LnGDP LnPQ3

DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY 'OLS Regression for each equation (in ratio) without Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

** OLS Regression for each equation linreg LnRQT1

# LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT1 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 linreg LnRQT2 # LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT2 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 linreg LnRQT3 # LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT3 # LnRQP LnRPT3 linreg LnRQKL # TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnRQKL # LnRGDP LnRPQ1 linreg LnQKG # TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnQKG # LnRGDP LnRPQ2 linreg LnRQP # TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE linreg LnRQP # LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY 'OLS+AR1 Regression for each equation (in ratio)without Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

** AR1 Regression for each equation AR1 LnRQT1 # LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP AR1 LnRQT1 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 AR1 LnRQT2 # LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP AR1 LnRQT2 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 AR1 LnRQT3 # LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP AR1 LnRQT3 # LnRQP LnRPT3 AR1 LnRQKL # TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1 LnRQKL # LnRGDP LnRPQ1 AR1 LnQKG # TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1 LnQKG # LnRGDP LnRPQ2 AR1 LnRQP # TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE

AR1 LnRQP

# LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY '2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations (in ratio)without Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

** 2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQT1 # LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP linreg(INST) LnRQT1 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 linreg(INST) LnRQT2 # LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP linreg(INST) LnRQT2 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 linreg(INST) LnRQT3 # LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP linreg(INST) LnRQT3 # LnRQP LnRPT3 linreg(INST) LnRQKL # TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQKL # LnRGDP LnRPQ1 linreg(INST) LnRQKG # TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQKG # LnRGDP LnRPQ2 linreg(INST) LnRQP # TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQP # LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY '2SLS + AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations (in ratio) without Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

** 2SLS with AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE

AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT1 # LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT1 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT2 # LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT2 # LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT3 # LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP

AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT3 # LnRQP LnRPT3 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) RQKL # TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQKL # LnRGDP LnRPQ1 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQKG # TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQKG # LnRGDP LnRPQ2 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQP # TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQP # LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY 'OLS Regression for each equation (in ratio) with Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

** OLS Regression for each equation linreg LnRQT1 # constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT1 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 linreg LnRQT2 # constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT2 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 linreg LnRQT3 # constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT3 # constant LnRQP LnRPT3 linreg LnRQKL

# constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnRQKL

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1 linreg LnQKG

# constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnQKG

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ2 linreg LnRQP

# constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE linreg LnRQP

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY 'OLS+AR1 Regression for each equation (in ratio) with Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

AR1 LnRQT1 # constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP AR1 LnRQT1 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 AR1 LnRQT2 # constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP AR1 LnRQT2 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 AR1 LnRQT3 # constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP AR1 LnRQT3 # constant LnRQP LnRPT3 AR1 LnRQKL

# constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1 LnRQKL

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1 AR1 LnQKG

# constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1 LnQKG

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ2 AR1 LnRQP

# constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE AR1 LnRQP

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY '2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations (in ratio) with Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

** 2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations

INSTRUMENTS constant LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQT1 # constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP linreg(INST) LnRQT1 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 linreg(INST) LnRQT2 # constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP linreg(INST) LnRQT2 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 linreg(INST) LnRQT3 # constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP linreg(INST) LnRQT3 # constant LnRQP LnRPT3 linreg(INST) LnRQKL

# constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQKL

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1 linreg(INST) LnRQKG

# constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQKG

linreg(INST) LnRQP

# constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE linreg(INST) LnRQP

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY ' '

DISPLAY '2SLS + AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations (in ratio) with Constant'

DISPLAY ' '

** 2SLS with AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS constant LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT1 # constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT1 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT2 # constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT2 # constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT3 # constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQT3 # constant LnRQP LnRPT3 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) RQKL

# constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQKL

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQKG

# constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQKG

# constant LnRGDP LnRPQ2 AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQP

# constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE AR1(INST,METHOD=CORC) LnRQP

Lampiran 3. Ringkasan Hasil Pengolahan Estimasi Parameter Menggunakan RATS

Lampiran 4. Faktor Kalibrasi

PLYWOOD; Calibrated constant terms

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