7. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
7.2 Saran
1. Sektor listrik sebaiknya meningkatkan efisiensi karena mampu menurunkan harga listrik sehingga pemerintah tidak perlu menetapkan kebijakan
kenaikan TDL. Sebagaimana ditunjukkan efisiensi 10 persen di sektor listrik mampu menurunkan harga listrik hingga 24,97 persen.
2. Meningkatnya biaya produksi pada sektor ekonomi akibat kebijakan kenaikan TDL hendaknya diimbangi dengan peningkatan efisiensi oleh produsen sehingga output yang dihasilkan bisa bersaing harga baik dipasar domestik maupun luar negeri.
3. Pemerintah perlu membuat kebijakan menurunkan PPN saat perekonomian melemah akibat kenaikan TDL, sehingga industri tetap mampu berproduksi dengan harga output sesuai daya beli masyarakat.
4. Dalam jangka pendek dan panjang, untuk memulihkan pertumbuhan ekonomi akibat kenaikan TDL Pemerintah tidak bisa hanya mengandalkan perusahaan untuk melakukan efisiensi produksi, namun harus berperan dalam menarik investor sehingga mau menanamkan modalnya di Indonesia. Pemerintah harus memberikan iklim investasi yang kondusif bagi investor dengan cara memberikan kepastian hukum, menstabilkan sosial politik dan keamanan.
5. Perlu adanya penelitian lebih lanjut, terutama mengenai dampak kenaikan TDL yang dirinci menurut golongan tarif pada tiap kelompok pelanggan sesuai dengan kebijakan yang berlaku sehingga dampak yang diperoleh mampu mencerminkan keadaan sebenarnya. Disamping itu, untuk menghindari masalah black blox dalam model CGE, penelitian lebih lanjut tersebut hendaknya disertai dengan perbaikan data-data pendukung yang kualitasnya lebih baik dan diperoleh dari data empiris.
Abimanyu A. 2004. Kajian Dampak Perubahan Trend Penggunaan Tenaga
Listrik pada Sektor Industri. Laporan Akhir. Jakarta : Depkeu dan Center
For Energy and Power Studies (CEPS).
Boccanfuso D. 2007. Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Macro–Micro Analysis of
the Effects on Poverty and Distribution. Department of Economics,
Université de Sherbrooke Canada. Cahier de recherche / Working Paper 07-12 GREDI.
Bojanic A and Krakowski M. 2003. Regulation of the Electricity Industry in
Bolivia: Its Impact on Access to the Poor, Prices and Quality. Hamburg
Institute of International Economics (HWWA) Germany. Discussion Paper 250.
[BPS] Badan Pusat Statistik. 2010. Tabel Input Output Indonesia Tahun 2008 Jakarta: BPS
[BPS] Badan Pusat Statistik. 2010. Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun
2008 Jakarta: BPS
[BPS] Badan Pusat Statistik. 2005. Tabel Input Output UKM Tahun 2003. Jakarta : BPS
Clements J dan Gupta. 2007. Real and Distributive Effects of Petroleum Price
Liberalization : The Case of Indonesia . International Monetary Fund, The
Developing Economies, XLV-2 (June 2007): 220–237
Delis A. 2008. Dampak Alokasi Dana Pembangunan Infrastruktur terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi di Indonesia: Suatu Pendekatan Model Keseimbangan Umum [Disertasi]. Bogor: Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Detikfinance. 2010. Dirut PLN Beberkan Penyebab Kenaikan TDL Industri
hingga 80 persen. Error! Hyperlink reference not valid..
Dixon PB, Parmenter BR, Powell A, dan Wilcoxen PJ. 1992. Notes and Problems
in Applied General Equilibrium Economics. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Escom. 2001. Dampak Kenaikan Harga BBM, Telepon dan TDL terhadap Inflasi. http://www.escom-online.com.
Floriasari. 2009. Dampak Peningkatan Subsidi Listrik terhadap Distribusi Pendapatan Rumahtangga. [Skripsi]. Jakarta : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik.
Hayati F. 2008. Permintaan Konsumen Terhadap Listrik Pada Rumahtangga. [Skripsi]. Yogyakarta : Universitas Islam Indonesia.
Horridge M. 2001. Minimal: A Simplified general Equilibrium Model. Australia: Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project, Monash University.
Komaidi dan Rakhmanto P. 2010. Mengukur Dampak Ekonomi Kenaikan TDL
2010. Konferensi Pers ReforMiner Institute. Jakarta
Lypsey R.G, Courant, Purvis dan Steiner. 1997. Pengantar Makroekonomi . Bina Rupa Aksara, Jakarta.
Mankiw NG. 2007. Makroekonomi. Lisa F, Imam N, penerjemah; Hardani W, Devri B, Suryadi S, editor. Edisi ke-6. Jakarta: Penerbit Erlangga. Terjemahan dari: Macroeconomics.
Makmun dan Abdurrahman. 2003. Dampak Kenaikan Tarif Dasar Listrik
Terhadap Konsumsi Listrik dan Pendapatan Masyarakat. Jurnal Keuangan
dan Moneter, Volume 6 Nomor 2.63-83.
Nicholson W. 2002. Mikroekonomi Intermediate dan Aplikasinya. Mahendra IGNB, Abdul A, penerjemah; Kristiaji WC, Yati S, Nurcahyo M, editor. Edke-8. Jakarta: Penerbit Erlangga. Terjemahan dari:
Intermediate Microeconomics and Its Application.
Oktaviani R. 2008. Model Ekonomi Keseimbangan Umum: Teori dan
Aplikasinya di Indonesia. Bogor: FEM IPB.
Oktaviani R. 2000. The Impact of APEC Trade Liberalization on Indonesian Economy and Its Agricultural Sektor [Disertasi]. The Sidney University. Oktaviani R. 2008. Model Ekonomi Keseimbangan Umum: Teori dan Aplikasinya
di Indonesia. Bogor: FEM IPB.
Oktaviani R, Dedi BH, Hermanto S, and Sahara. 2007. Impact of a Lower Oil
Subsidy on Indonesia Macroeconomic Performance Agricultural Sector and Poverty Incidence: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. MPIA Working Paper 2007-08.
[PLN] Perusahaan Listrik Negara. 2010. Statistik PLN tahun 2009. Jakarta : PLN Pouris R dan Anastassios I. 2010. Forecasting electricity demand in South
Africa: Acritique of Eskom’s projections. Department of Economics,
University of Pretoria, South Africa. Research Letter Vol. 106 No. 1/2 Page 1 - 4.
Praptono. 2006. TDL, Titik Awal Efisiensi Nasional Majalah Warta Anggaran, Direktorat Jenderal Anggaran. Depkeu Edisi 5 Tahun 2006.
Punt C. 2005. A Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Analysis of the Impact of
an Oil Price Increase in South Africa. Elsenburg Working Paper 2005: 1
Purwoko. 2006. Analisis Peran Subsidi bagi Industri dan Masyarakat Pengguna
Listrik. Jurnal Keuangan dan Moneter, Volume 6 Nomor 2 .44-62
Pyndick RS. 2003. Mikro Ekonomi Jilid 1. Jakarta : PT. Indeks
Riadi M. 2010. Dampak Kebijakan Stimulus Fiskal Bidang Infrastruktur Padatkarya terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi Makro dan Ekonomi Sektoral di Indonesia. [tesis]. Bogor: Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor. Sahara. 2003. Dampak Kenaikan Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak, Tarif Dasar
Listrik, Tarif Telephon dan Penyaluran Dana Kompensasi terhadap Ekonomi Makro dan Sektoral di Indonesia [tesis]. Bogor: Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Sahara dan Rina O. 2008. Penggunaan Program GEMPACK untuk
Membangun Data Dasar dan Simulasi Model CGE. Bogor : Institut
Pertanian Bogor
Saragih F, 2010. Pengaruh Pelaksanaan Proyek Infrastruktur terhadap
Perkembangan Variabel Makro . Jakarta
Stiglitz JE. 2000. Economics of the Public Sektor. Third Ed. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
Sudarsono. 1995. Pengantar Ekonomi Mikro. Jakarta: LPPPES.
Sugiyono A. 2009. Dampak Kebijakan Energy terhadap Perekonomian di
Indonesia. Kolokium Nasional Program Doktor Tahun 2009. Yogyakarta
Sugema 2005. Dampak Kenaikan Harga BBM dan Effektivitas Program
Kompensasi. Jakarta: Tim INDEF dan FEM IPB.
Tribuana N. 2000. Laporan Akhir Pengkajian Tekno Ekonomi ketenaga listrikan
Bidang Harga Jual Tenaga listrik. Proyek Induk Sarana Pengujian dan
Penunjang Ketenagalistrikan. Jakarta : Direktorat Jenderal Listrik dan Pengembangan Energi
Wittwer G. 1999. WAYANG: A General Equilibrium Model Adapted for
Indonesian Economy. Centre for International Economic Studies,
! INDOTDL 21 model: IO 2008 !
! Excerpt 1 of TABLO input file: ! ! Sets and flows data!
Set ! User categories: IO table columns !
IND # Industries #
(Pertanian, Tambangali, IndMakMin, IndTekstPak,IndBambuKy, IndKertas,
IndKimia, IndKrtPlstk, IndSemen, IndLgmDsr, IndBrgLgm, IndMesin,
Indlainnya, Listrik900, Listrik1300, Gasair, Bangunan, PerdagHR, Angkom,
KeuJspersh, JasaLain); ! subscript i !
FINALUSER# Final demanders #
(InvStock, HouseHB, HouseHA, Export, GovGE);
USER# All users #= INDunionFINALUSER; ! subscript u !
IMPUSER# Non-export demanders: users of imports #
(Pertanian, Tambangali, IndMakMin, IndTekstPak, IndBambuKy, IndKertas,
IndKimia, IndKrtPlstk, IndSemen, IndLgmDsr,IndBrgLgm, IndMesin,
Indlainnya, Listrik900, Listrik1300, Gasair, Bangunan, PerdagHR, Angkom,
KeuJspersh, JasaLain, InvStock, HouseHB, HouseHA, GovGE);
HH# Total household demand # (HouseHB, HouseHA);
Subset
IMPUSERis subset ofUSER;
INDis subset ofIMPUSER;
HHis subset ofIMPUSER;
Set ! Input categories: IO table rows !
COM# Commodities #
(Pertanian, Tambangali, IndMakMin, IndTekstPak, IndBambuKy,
IndKertas, IndKimia, IndKrtPlstk, IndSemen, IndLgmDsr, IndBrgLgm,
IndMesin, Indlainnya, Listrik900, Listrik1300, Gasair, Bangunan,
PerdagHR, Angkom, KeuJspersh, JasaLain); ! subscript c !
SRC# Source of commodities # (domestik,impor); !subscript s !
FAC# Primary factors # (Labour, Capital); ! subscript f !
Coefficient
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) # USE matrix #;
(all,f,FAC)(all,i,IND) FACTOR(f,i) # Wages and profits #; (all,i,IND) V1PTX(i) # Production tax revenue# ; (all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) # import tax revenue #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) V3TAX(c,s,u) # Taxes on households #;
FileBASEDATA# Flows Data File #; Read
USE from fileBASEDATAheader"USE";
FACTOR from fileBASEDATAheader"1FAC";
V0MTX from fileBASEDATAheader"0TAR";
V1PTX from fileBASEDATAheader"1PTX";
! Excerpt 2 of TABLO input file: ! ! Useful aggregates of the base data !
Coefficient
(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) # USE matrix, dom+imp together#; (all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) # Total user expenditure on goods #; (all,u,USER)(all,s,SRC) USE_C(s,u)
# Expenditure by user u on total goods of source s #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) # Total value of sales #; (all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) # Wages plus profits #; (all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) # Industry Costs #;
(all,u,HH) V3TOT_HH(u)# Total purchases by each households# ; V3TOT # Total purchases by households #;
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) V3PUR(c,s,u) # Households purch. value #; (all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) # Aggregate imports at border prices #;
Formula
(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) = sum{s,SRC,USE(c,s,u)}; (all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) = sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,u)}; (all,u,USER)(all,s,SRC) USE_C(s,u) = sum{c,COM,USE(c,s,u)}; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) = sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)}; (all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) = sum{f,FAC,FACTOR(f,i)};
(all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) = V1PRIM(i) + sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,i)}; (all,u,HH) V3TOT_HH(u) = sum{c,COM, USE_S(c,u) }; V3TOT = sum(u,HH,V3TOT_HH(u)); (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) V3PUR(c,s,u) = USE(c,s,u)+ V3TAX(c,s,u); (all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) = SALES(c,"impor") -V0MTX(c); ! Excerpt 3 of TABLO input file: !
! Total demands for commodities !
Variable
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER)
x(c,s,u) # Demand by user u for good c, source s #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)
x3(c,s,u) # Demand by household u for good c, source s #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) x0(c,s) # Total demand for good c, source s #;
EquationE_x0
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s)*x0(c,s)= sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u)}; ! Excerpt 4 of TABLO input file: !
! Import/Domestic sourcing decision for all non-export users!
Variable
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) p(c,s) #User price of good c,source s #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) # User price of composite good c #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) p3_s(c,u) # Purchaser's price household of composite good c #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) p3(c,s,u) # Purchaser's price, household #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) x_s(c,u) # Use of composite good c #;
(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) x3_s(c,u) # Use household of composite good c #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) f3tax(c,u) # shifter in power of taxes on Household usage#;
Coefficient
(all,c,COM) SIGMA(c) # elasticity of substitution: domestic/imported #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) # imp/dom shares #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) SRCHH(c,s,u) # imp/dom household shares #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) V3PUR_S(c,u) # Dom+imp households purch. value #;
ReadSIGMAfrom fileBASEDATAheader"ARM";
Formula
(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) V3PUR_S(c,u) = sum{s,SRC,V3PUR(c,s,u)}; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) = USE(c,s,u)/USE_S(c,u); (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) SRCHH(c,s,u) = V3PUR(c,s,u)/V3PUR_S(c,u);
EquationE_x
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) x(c,s,u) = x_s(c,u) -SIGMA(c)*[p(c,s) -p_s(c,u)];
EquationE_x3
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH) x3(c,s,u)=
x3_s(c,u) -SIGMA(c)*[p3(c,s,u)-p3_s(c,u)];
EquationE_x3_s
(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) x3_s(c,u)= sum{s,SRC,x(c,s,u)};
EquationE_p_s
(all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) = sum{s,SRC, SRCSHR(c,s,u)*p(c,s)};
EquationE_p3_s
(all,c,COM)(all,u,HH) p3_s(c,u) = sum{s,SRC, SRCHH(c,s,u)*[p3(c,s,u)]};
EquationE_p3# Purchasers prices - households #
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)
V3PUR(c,s,u)*p3(c,s,u) = [V3PUR(c,s,u)]*[p(c,s)+f3tax(c,u)]; ! Excerpt 5 of TABLO input file: !
! Demands for capital and labour !
Variable
(all,i,IND) x1prim(i) # Industry demand for primary-factor composite #; (all,i,IND) p1prim(i) # Price of primary factor composite #;
(all,i,IND) x1lab(i) # Employment by industry #; p1lab # Economy-wide wage rate #; (all,i,IND) x1cap(i) # Current capital stock #; (all,i,IND) p1cap(i) # Rental price of capital #;
Coefficient
(all,i,IND) SIGMA1PRIM(i) # CES substitution, primary factors #;
ReadSIGMA1PRIMfrom fileBASEDATAheader"P028";
EquationE_x1lab
EquationE_x1cap
(all,i,IND) x1cap(i) = x1prim(i) -SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1cap(i)-p1prim(i)];
EquationE_p1prim
(all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i)*p1prim(i) =
FACTOR("Labour",i)*p1lab + FACTOR("Capital",i)*p1cap(i); ! Excerpt 6 of TABLO input file: !
! Demands for composite inputs to production !
Variable
(all,i,IND) x1tot(i) # Industry output #;
(all,i,IND) a1prim(i) # All primary-factor augmenting technical change #; (all,i,IND) p1tot(i) # Unit cost of production #;
EquationE_x1# demand for commodity composites #
(all,c,COM)(all,i,IND) x_s(c,i)= x1tot(i);
EquationE_x1prim# demand for primary-factor composites #
(all,i,IND) x1prim(i) = a1prim(i) + x1tot(i);
EquationE_p1tot# cost of production = cost of all inputs #
(all,i,IND) V1TOT(i)*[p1tot(i)+ x1tot(i)] =
sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,i)*[p(c,s) + x(c,s,i)]}} + FACTOR("Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]
+ FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i)+ x1cap(i)];
! Excerpt 7_T of TABLO input file: ! ! Total household demands !
Variable
(all,u,HH) w3tot_hh(u) # Nominal total consumption, each household #;
(all,u,HH) x3tot_hh(u) # Real total consumption, each household #; (all,u,HH) p3tot_hh(u) # consumer price index, each household #; p3tot # Consumer price index #;
x3tot # Real total household consumption #;
w3tot # Nominal total household consumption #;
EquationE_x3_hh
EquationE_x3tot_hh # Real consumption # (all,u,HH)V3TOT_HH(u)*x3tot_hh(u) =
sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC,V3PUR(c,s,u)*x3(c,s,u)}};
EquationE_p3tot_hh # Consumer price index # (all,u,HH)V3TOT_HH(u)*p3tot_hh(u) =
sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC,V3PUR(c,s,u)*p3(c,s,u)}};
EquationE_w3tot_hh # Household budget constraint # (all,u,HH)w3tot_hh(u) = x3tot_hh(u) + p3tot_hh(u);
Equation E_x3tot # Real consumption #
V3TOT*x3tot = sum{u,HH,V3TOT_HH(u)*x3tot_hh(u)};
Equation E_p3tot # Consumer price index #
V3TOT*p3tot = sum{u,HH,V3TOT_HH(u)*p3tot_hh(u)};
Equation E_w3tot # Household budget constraint # w3tot = x3tot + p3tot;
! Excerpt 8 of TABLO input file: ! ! Export demands !
Variable
(all,c,COM) pworld(c) # World prices, measured in foreign currency #;
(all,c,COM) f4q(c) # Quantity shift in foreign demand #;
phi # Exchange rate, (local $)/(foreign $) #; Coefficient (all,c,COM) EXP_ELAST(c) # Export demand elasticities #;
ReadEXP_ELASTfrom fileBASEDATAheader"P018";
EquationE_x4a (all,c,COM) x(c,"domestik","Export") =
f4q(c)-EXP_ELAST(c)*[{p(c,"domestik")-phi}-pworld(c)];
EquationE_x4b (all,c,COM) x(c,"impor","Export") = 0; ! Excerpt 9 of TABLO input file: !
! Market clearing and prices for domestic commodities !
SubsetCOMis subset ofIND;
EquationE_x1tot (all,c,COM) x1tot(c) = x0(c,"domestik");
Variable
(change)(all,c,COM) Delptxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of domestic tax #;
EquationE_pA !Prices for domestic commodities ! (all,c,COM) p(c,"domestik") =
! Excerpt 10 of TABLO input file: ! ! Prices for imported commodities !
Variable
(change)(all,c,COM) Delmtxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of import tax #;
EquationE_pB !Prices for import commodities ! (all,c,COM) p(c,"impor") =
pworld(c)+phi +100*[V0CIF(c)/SALES(c,"impor")]*Delmtxrate(c); ! Excerpt 11 of TABLO input file: !
! GDP from income side !
Variable w0gdpinc # Nominal GDP from income side #;
CoefficientV0GDPINC # GDP from income side #;
Formula V0GDPINC = sum{i,IND, sum{f,FAC, FACTOR(f,i)}} + sum{c,COM, V1PTX(c) + V0MTX(c)};
EquationE_w0gdpinc
V0GDPINC*w0gdpinc =
sum{i,IND, FACTOR( "Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]} +sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i) + x1cap(i)]}
+sum{c,COM, 100*V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)]} +sum{c,COM, 100*V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c) + V0MTX(c)*
[x0(c,"impor")+pworld(c)+phi]};
! Excerpt 12 of TABLO input file: ! ! Expenditure-side GDP measures !
Variable
w0gdpexp # Nominal GDP from expenditure side #;
p0gdpexp # GDP price index, expenditure side #;
x0gdpexp # Real GDP from expenditure side #;
Coefficient
V0GDPEXP# GDP from expenditure side #; Formula
V0GDPEXP = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)}}
EquationE_w0gdpexp V0GDPEXP*w0gdpexp =
sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*[p(c,s)+x(c,s,u)]}} -V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"impor")+ pworld(c)+phi]};
EquationE_p0gdpexp
V0GDPEXP*p0gdpexp = sum{c,COM,
sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*p(c,s)}} -V0CIF(c)*[pworld(c)+phi]};
EquationE_x0gdpexp x0gdpexp = w0gdpexp-p0gdpexp;
! Excerpt 13 of TABLO input file: ! ! More macro variables !
Variable
x4tot# Export volume index #;
p4tot# Export price index #;
p2tot# Investment price index #;
x0cif_c# Import volume index, CIF prices #;
(change) delB# (Balance of trade)/GDP #;
EquationE_x4tot
sum{c,COM, USE(c,"domestik","Export")*[x4tot-x(c,"domestik","Export")]} = 0;
EquationE_p4tot
sum{c,COM, USE(c,"domestik","Export")*[p4tot-p(c,"domestik")]} = 0;
EquationE_p2tot
sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,"InvStock")*[p2tot-p(c,s)]}} = 0;
EquationE_x0cif_c
sum{c,COM, V0CIF(c)*[x0cif_c -x0(c,"impor")]}=0;
EquationE_delB
100*V0GDPEXP*delB=sum{c,COM, USE(c,"domestik","Export")*[p(c,"domestik")+ x(c,"domestik","Export")-w0gdpexp] -V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"impor")+
! Excerpt 14 of TABLO input file: !
! Variables to assist factor market closure !
Variable realwage # Wage rate deflated by CPI #; employ # Aggregate employment #;
(all,i,IND) gret(i) # Gross rate of return #;
EquationE_realwage realwage = p1lab-p3tot;
EquationE_employ sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Labour",i)*[employ-x1lab(i)]}=0;
EquationE_gret (all,i,IND) gret(i) = p1cap(i) -p2tot;
! Excerpt 15 of TABLO input file: ! ! Updating rules !
Update
(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) = p(c,s)*x(c,s,u); (all,i,IND) FACTOR("Labour",i) = p1lab*x1lab(i); (all,i,IND) FACTOR("Capital",i) = p1cap(i)*x1cap(i);
(change) (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,HH)
V3TAX(c,s,u) = V3TAX(c,s,u)* [x(c,s,u) + p(c,s)]/100 +
V3PUR(c,s,u)*f3tax(c,u)/100;
(change)(all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) =
V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c) + 0.01*V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"impor")+
pworld(c)+phi];
(change)(all,c,COM) V1PTX(c) =
V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + 0.01*V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)];
! Excerpt 16 of TABLO input file: ! ! Summarize and check data !
File (new) SUMMARY# output file for summary data #;
Coefficient (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) # (costs + tax) - sales : should = 0 #;
Formula (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) = V1TOT(c) + V1PTX(c) –
SetCOSTCAT# cost categories # = SRCunionFAC;
Coefficient
(all,c,COSTCAT)(all,i,IND) COSTMAT(c,i) # Summary of industry costs #;
Formula
(all,i,IND)(all,s,SRC) COSTMAT(s,i) = sum{c,COM,USE(c,s,i)}; (all,i,IND)(all,f,FAC) COSTMAT(f,i) = FACTOR(f,i);
Write
CHECK to fileSUMMARYheader"CHEK";
COSTMAT to fileSUMMARYheader"COST";
SALES to fileSUMMARYheader"SALE";
V1PRIM to fileSUMMARYheader"1PRM";
V1TOT to fileSUMMARYheader"1TOT";
V0CIF to fileSUMMARYheader"0CIF";
V0GDPEXP to fileSUMMARYheader"GDPE";
V0GDPINC to fileSUMMARYheader"GDPI"; ! Excerpt 17 of TABLO input file: !
! More summary data !
SetMAINUSER# broad user groups #
(Intermediate, InvStock, HouseHB, HouseHA, Export, GovGE);
SubsetFinalUseris subset ofMAINUSER;
Coefficient
(all,c,COM)(all,u,MAINUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) # Summary of sales #;
Formula
(all,c,COM) MAINSALES(c,"Intermediate") = sum{i,IND,USE(c,"domestik",i)}; (all,c,COM)(all,u,FINALUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) = USE(c,"domestik",u);
Coefficient (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) # Share of capital in primary factor costs #;
Formula (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) = FACTOR("capital",i)/V1PRIM(i);
Coefficient (all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) # Share imports in local purchases #;
Formula (all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) =
sum{u,IMPUSER,USE(c,"impor",u)}/sum{u,IMPUSER,USE_S(c,u)};
Write
MAINSALESto fileSUMMARYheader"MSAL";
CAPSHR to fileSUMMARYheader"KSHR";
IMPSHR to fileSUMMARYheader"MSHR"; ! end
Lampiran 2 Jumlah bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk membangkitkan listrik PLN tahun 2001-2009.
HSD IDO MFO Tot
2001 3.575.480 30.457 1.793.283 5.399.220 14.027.713 222.421 2002 4.625.521 40.682 2.300.603 6.966.806 14.054.377 192.927 2003 5.024.362 31.573 2.557.546 7.613.481 15.260.305 184.304 2004 6.299.706 36.935 2.502.598 8.839.239 15.412.738 176.436 2005 7.626.201 27.581 2.258.776 9.912.558 16.900.972 143.050 2006 7.586.916 23.977 2.387.622 9.998.515 19.084.438 157.894 2007 7.874.290 13.557 2.801.128 10.688.975 21.466.348 171.209 2008 8.127.546 28.989 3.163.954 11.320.489 20.999.521 181.661 2009 6.365.116 11.132 3.032.657 9.408.905 21.604.464 266.539 Tahun BBM (kilo liter)
Jumlah
Batubara (Ton)
Gas Alam (MMSCF)
Lampiran 3 Harga bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk membangkitkan listrik tahun 2001-2009.
HSD IDO MFO Tot
2001 879 797 655 804 200 26.074 2002 1.407 1.332 127 1.314 220 23.497 2003 1.741 1.705 1.595 1.680 231 21.550 2004 1.829 1.694 1.698 1.740 231 21.258 2005 2.819 2.486 2.418 2.574 252 25.324 2006 5.629 5.351 3.535 4.838 336 24.186 2007 5.350 5.275 3.563 4.881 339 23.481 2008 8.738 8.650 5.762 7.906 489 29.128 2009 5.601 5.552 4.316 5.187 732 37.998 Harga
Tahun BBM (Rp/ liter) Batubara (Rp/Kg)
Gas Alam (Rp/MSCF)
Lampiran 4 Nilai biaya bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk membangkitkan listrik tahun 2001-2009.
HSD IDO MFO Tot
2001 3.141.131 24.275 1.174.098 4.339.503 2.799.932 5.799.356 12.938.791 2002 6.507.137 54.179 292.294 6.853.610 3.088.449 4.533.190 14.475.249 2003 8.746.962 53.835 4.079.670 12.880.467 3.522.384 3.971.825 20.374.675 2004 11.522.855 62.572 4.248.661 15.834.088 3.556.489 3.750.685 23.141.262 2005 21.499.405 68.566 5.462.150 27.030.120 4.251.440 3.622.564 34.904.124 2006 42.708.343 128.292 8.439.122 51.275.757 6.408.745 3.818.760 61.503.262 2007 42.124.381 71.519 9.981.568 52.177.467 7.271.940 4.020.157 63.469.564 2008 71.020.529 250.762 18.231.019 89.502.310 10.273.596 5.291.451 105.067.356 2009 35.651.460 61.809 13.088.523 48.801.792 15.821.381 10.128.077 74.751.250 Tahun Nilai (juta RP) BBM
Batubara Gas Alam Total
Lampiran 5 Share nilai biaya bahan bakar yang digunakan untuk membangkitkan listrik tahun 2001-2009.
HSD IDO MFO Tot
2001 24,28 0,19 9,07 33,54 21,64 44,82 100,00 2002 44,95 0,37 2,02 47,35 21,34 31,32 100,00 2003 42,93 0,26 20,02 63,22 17,29 19,49 100,00 2004 49,79 0,27 18,36 68,42 15,37 16,21 100,00 2005 61,60 0,20 15,65 77,44 12,18 10,38 100,00 2006 69,44 0,21 13,72 83,37 10,42 6,21 100,00 2007 66,37 0,11 15,73 82,21 11,46 6,33 100,00 2008 67,60 0,24 17,35 85,19 9,78 5,04 100,00 2009 47,69 0,08 17,51 65,29 21,17 13,55 100,00 Batubara Tahun Gas Alam Komposisi BBM Total
No. Peneliti/tahun Data Dasar Alat Analisis Hasil
1. Komaidi dan
Rakhmanto P. (2010)
FSAM 2005 Metode WAB Kenaikan TDL sebesar 10% – 20% berpotensi menambah biaya produksi sektor utama pengguna listrik rata‐rata sebesar 2,13 – 4,25 % dan menambah besaran inflasi nasional sebesar 0,63% – 1,36 % juga berpotensi menurunkan konsumsi listrik dan permintaan tenaga kerja masing‐masing sebesar 6,70% – 13,40 % dan 1,17% – 2,35%. Dari hasil simulasi 10 sektor ekonomi yang terdampak besar terkait kenaikan TDL, merupakan sektor‐sektor ekonomi yang padat tenaga kerja
2. Floriasari AS. (2009) SNSE 2005 Analisis dampak SAM dan Jalur transmisi
Kenaikan subsidi listrik akan menyebabkan kenaikan pendapatan tertinggi diterima oleh rumah tangga pengusaha golongan atas yang berada di perkotaan sekaligus pemilik modal. Rumah tangga buruh pertanian akan mendapatkan pendapatan terkecil. Kenaikan subsidi listrik meningkatkan pendapatan namun kesenjangan pendapatan semakin lebar. 3. Makmun dan Abdurahman (2003) SNSE 2003 Analisis dampak SAM
Kenaikan TDL sebesar 10 persen berdampak terhadap turunannya
income riil rumah tangga buruh tani sekitar 1,47 persen dan rumah
tangga non pertanian golongan bawah turun 3,47 persen. Kelompok masyarakat yang paling banyak mengalami penurunan income riil adalah rumah tangga bukan pertanian golongan bawah, yang turun income riilnya sampai 5,26 persen. Sedangkan pengurangan balas jasa yang diterima perusahaan sekitar 1,46 persen.
4 Sahara. (2003) Tabel I-O 1995 dan SNSE 1995 Analisis CGE dengan model INDOF,
Kenaikan TDL akan menyebabkan penurunan GDP riil sebesar 0,49% pada jangka pendek dan sebesar 2,21 % pada jangka panjang. Kenaikan TDL direspon oleh dengan penurunan konsumsi pada jangka pendek sebaliknya pada jangka panjang berdampak pada peningkatan konsumsinya. Kenaikan TDL pada jangka pendek maupun panjang menyebabkan penurunan penggunaan tenaga kerja pada semua jenis pekerjaan.
5. Tribuana N. (2000)
Tabel I-O
1995 Analisis CGE. Kenaikan TDL sebesar 1 % menyebabkan GDP riil turun sebesar 0,002 % pada kondisi short run, dan turun sebesar 0,04 % pada kondisi long-run. Untuk setiap 1 % kenaikan TDL menyebabkan total investasi riil turun sebesar 0,01 % pada kondisi short-run dan turun sebesar 0,03 % pada kondisi long-run. Pada kondisi short-run, kenaikan TDL pengaruhnya relatif kecil (0,004%) terhadap penurunan penggunaan tenaga kerja . Pada kondisi long-run, setiap 1 % kenaikan tarif listrik mengakibatkan penurunan penggunaan tenaga kerja sebesar 0,065 % .