Opportunity Rising Star
6 SIMPULAN DAN SARAN
Simpulan
Berdasarkan hasil analisis dalam penelitian maka dapat ditarik beberapa kesimpulan terkait dengan analisis daya saing kopi Indonesia dan Vietnam di pasar
ASEAN 5 dan faktor-faktor apa saja yang dapat mempengaruhi nilai ekspor kopi jenis HS 090111 (Coffee, not roasted, not decaffeinated) ke pasar ASEAN 5, yaitu: 1. Kinerja perdagangan kopi di pasar ASEAN 5 terbilang baik. Hal tersebut didasari pada nilai ekspor yang cenderung meningkat setiap tahunnya, baik dari segi kuantitas maupun nilai ekspor. Sedangkan Vietnam sebagai salah satu negara pengekspor kopi terbesar di dunia memiliki share tertinggi terhadap ekspor kopi di pasar ASEAN 5. Hal tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa ASEAN 5 menjadi pasar yang potensial bagi ekspor kopi Indonesia.
2. Perdagangan kopi Indonesia ke pasar ASEAN 5 tidak semuanya berdaya saing tinggi. Hal tersebut tercermin dari nilai RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) Indonesia ke negara ASEAN 5 tersebut. Nilai RCA Indonesia ke negara Thailand dan Vietnam tidak lebih dari 1 (satu) sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Thailand dan Vietnam tidak memiliki daya saing. Sedangkan hanya nilai RCA Indonesia ke Filipina, Malaysia dan Singapura yang memiliki nilai lebih dari satu sehingga dapat dikatakan ekspor kopi Indonesia ke negara tersebut memiliki daya saing sedangkan matriks EPD yang didapat berdasarkan penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perdagangan kopi Indonesia maupun Vietnam berada pada kuadran rising star yang berarti bahwa kinerja perdagangan ekspor berjalan cepat dan dinamis dimana tingkat pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia terus meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya pangsa eskspor di ASEAN 5.
3. Variabel-variabel yang memiliki pengaruh terhadap nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia adalah GDP per kapita masing-masing negara pengimpor, nilai tukar rill serta harga lokal kopi di negara pengimpor. Sedangkan variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap nilai ekspor kopi Vietnam ke pasar ASEAN 5 adalah variabel GDP per kapita dan jarak ekonomi. Sedangkan variabel-variabel yang memiliki pengaruh terhadap kuantitas ekspor kopi Indonesia adalah GDP per kapita masing-masing negara pengimpor, nilai tukar rill serta harga lokal kopi di negara pengimpor. Sedangkan varaibel-variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap nilai ekspor kopi Vietnam ke pasar ASEAN 5 adalah variabel GDP per kapita, nilai tukar rill dan jarak ekonomi.
Saran
1. Perlu dilakukan upaya-upaya peningkatan daya saing kopi oleh pemerintah agar Indonesia dapat bersaing dengan Vietnam dalam kaitanya terhadap ekspor kopi. Hal tersebut didasari pada kenyataan bahwa bahwa pasar kopi di ASEAN 5 sangat potensial.
2. Ekspor kopi ke Thailand dan Vietnam tidak perlu diprioritaskan, mengingat nilai RCA Indonesia ke kedua negara tersebut kurang dari satu dan dapat dikatakan bahwa ekspor kopi Indonesia tidak memiliki daya saing di Thailand dan Vietanam.
3. Ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Filipina memiliki nilai rata-rata RCA yang kritis. Meskipun rata-rata nilai RCA masih berada di atas satu, namun dalam beberapa tahun terakhir nilai RCA Indonesia ke Filipina berada pada nilai di bawah satu. Namun demikian, ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Filipina harus tetap dilakukan mengingat pertumbuhan nilai RCA Indonesia ke Filipina berada pada trend yang positif.
4. Pemerintah perlu menjaga stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah di dunia karena dengan begitu maka nilai tukar rill akan semakin mengecil. Salah satu cara yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan meningkatkan ekspor di sektor yang menjadi andalan Indonesia sehingga memicu terjadinya apresiasi terhadap rupiah di dunia. Tentu saja hal tersebut dapat tercapai jika adanya efisiensi di setiap unit sektor produksi ditambah lagi dengan adanya kebijakan yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah terkait peningkatan ekspor seperti kebijakan subsidi ataupun hal yang terkait dengan distribusi.
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Lampiran 1 Hasil uji estimasi model A1 Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section weights) Date: 05/03/16 Time: 10:38
Sample: 2001 2014 Periods included: 14 Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 70
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -28.05286 9.284393 -3.021507 0.0037 X1 3.207462 0.436148 7.354069 0.0000 X2 -0.209835 0.321892 -0.651880 0.5170 X3 2.663063 0.988777 2.693289 0.0092 X4 -1.309467 0.962314 -1.360749 0.1787 X5 0.349765 0.098661 3.545105 0.0008 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.898534 Mean dependent var 27.03903
Adjusted R-squared 0.883314 S.D. dependent var 21.36539
S.E. of regression 1.131186 Sum squared resid 76.77486
F-statistic 59.03694 Durbin-Watson stat 1.687034
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.783550 Mean dependent var 14.88814
Lampiran 2 Hasil uji estimasi model A2
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section SUR) Date: 05/03/16 Time: 10:46
Sample: 2001 2014 Periods included: 14 Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 70
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -29.95284 6.346217 -4.719794 0.0000 X1 2.629465 0.345523 7.610109 0.0000 X2 0.228324 0.168112 1.358171 0.1795 X3 2.638928 0.822896 3.206879 0.0022 X4 -0.488334 0.957448 -0.510037 0.6119 X5 0.199003 0.078504 2.534959 0.0139 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.916430 Mean dependent var 11.35863
Adjusted R-squared 0.903895 S.D. dependent var 23.26072
S.E. of regression 1.051281 Sum squared resid 66.31144
F-statistic 73.10698 Durbin-Watson stat 1.847733
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.779576 Mean dependent var 14.38186
Lampiran 3 Hasil uji estimasi model B1 Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 05/03/16 Time: 11:02 Sample: 2001 2014
Periods included: 14 Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 70
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.723180 21.11053 -0.034257 0.9728 X1 2.571750 0.655874 3.921105 0.0002 X2 1.270747 0.878292 1.446838 0.1531 X3 -5.102584 2.877589 -1.773215 0.0813 X4 5.015213 2.433960 2.060516 0.0437 X5 -0.379205 1.206703 -0.314249 0.7544 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.617378 Mean dependent var 15.97343
Adjusted R-squared 0.559984 S.D. dependent var 1.845702
S.E. of regression 1.224322 Akaike info criterion 3.374215
Sum squared resid 89.93781 Schwarz criterion 3.695428
Log likelihood -108.0975 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.501804
F-statistic 10.75696 Durbin-Watson stat 1.632312
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.769104 Mean dependent var 24.45210
Adjusted R-squared 0.734470 S.D. dependent var 15.95155
S.E. of regression 1.142588 Sum squared resid 78.33041
F-statistic 22.20637 Durbin-Watson stat 1.452548
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.595422 Mean dependent var 15.97343
Lampiran 4 Hasil uji estimasi model B2
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section SUR) Date: 05/03/16 Time: 11:08
Sample: 2001 2014 Periods included: 14 Cross-sections included: 5
Total panel (balanced) observations: 70
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 13.70509 10.86885 1.260951 0.2122 X1 2.474022 0.441584 5.602612 0.0000 X2 1.057390 0.450130 2.349077 0.0221 X3 -4.301065 1.424984 -3.018326 0.0037 X4 3.192486 1.243062 2.568244 0.0127 X5 -1.062498 0.642390 -1.653977 0.1034 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.794798 Mean dependent var 21.25231
Adjusted R-squared 0.764018 S.D. dependent var 14.44368
S.E. of regression 1.014002 Sum squared resid 61.69203
F-statistic 25.82162 Durbin-Watson stat 1.599698
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.606056 Mean dependent var 15.41600
Lampiran 5 Hasil uji Chow model A1
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests
Equation: Untitled
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 8.250104 (4,60) 0.0000
Lampiran 6 Hasil uji Chow model A2
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests
Equation: Untitled
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 28.232002 (4,60) 0.0000
Lampiran 7 Hasil uji Chow model B1
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests
Equation: Untitled
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 14.762342 (4,60) 0.0000
Lampiran 8 Hasil uji Chow model B2
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests
Equation: Untitled
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.