WAVES FITNESS AND AQUATIC CENTRE REDEVELOPMENT
4.4 VISITATION ESTIMATES
Given the considerable difference between Waves and the facilities benchmarked in the CERM report, it is inappropriate to develop future visitation forecasts for a redeveloped Waves Aquatic Centre on CERM Performance Indicators.
An alternative, two-phase approach has been applied to estimate visitation for a redeveloped Waves, involving:
x adjustments to current visitation levels to account for limitations in the current facility that would be rectified as the result of redevelopment, and then
x calculation of visitation growth due to projected population increases within the catchment.
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Projected Impact of Redevelopment on Visitation Increased Aquatic Capacity
Community consultation and the analysis of data provided by Council and Belgravia indicates that additional lanes for learn to swim lessons and an additional dedicated recreational pool are needed. The redevelopment would provide visitors with additional pools and enable Waves to cater for all unmet demand.
In the present setting, recreational swimmers use lanes in the Olympic Pool when the covered pool is in use by other groups. There is also no adequate pool for children aside from the toddler pool, which is too shallow. It is estimated that a redevelopment will have the greatest impact on learn-to-swim activity, with visitations increasing proportionately with pool area. This segment represented 18% of total visitors (almost 52,000 in 2017-18) using a covered pool area of 150m2. The new pool is expected to be a 25m x 6 lanes pool, with an approximate area of 300m2, facilitating a doubling of learn-to-swim capacity.
Redeveloped amenities and spaces
Several aquatic centres, health clubs and swimming pools compete for market share within the Waves’
catchment area. Redeveloping Waves would increase its attractiveness, however other factors such as price, proximity to transport and other facilities are likely to limit the increase in market share Waves would gain.
For this study, it is conservatively assumed that a more modern aquatic centre will increase visitation by 10% (with the exception of learn-to-swim visitation, noted above). In 2017-18 Waves visitation was 232,125 (excluding learn-to-swim). A 10% increase results in a post-redevelopment visitation projection of approximately 255,000.
Compliance with DDA requirements
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 18.3% of Australians reported living with a disability.
Of those, 78.5% reported a physical disability and 21.5% reported mental and behavioural disorders.
Assuming a similar ratio applies to the Waves catchment area, the number of visits with a physical disability in 2017-18 would be 17,400. Achieving full DDA compliance would potentially have the greatest impact for recreational swimmers, and therefore 20% increase (rather than 10%) will be applied to that user group.
Table 6 summarises the estimated cumulative impact of these improvements, including:
x current visitation, by activity (based on user data captured by Belgravia in 2017)
x the assumed projected increase in visitation for each activity, and the reasons for the projected increase (taking a conservative approach, based on estimates published in the Waves Business Case, and consultation with THSC representatives)
x projected visitation, by activity (post-redevelopment).
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Table 6: Post-redevelopment visitation projections
Population Growth
The catchment population is forecast to increase by 40% to 170,368 by 2036. Applying this percentage increase to post-development visitation estimates yields a visitation projection of 522,000 visits in 2036.
Conclusions
Table 7 summarises projected visitation for a redeveloped Waves. The projected visitation growth is substantial, however the relevant CERM performance indicators (catchment multiple and visits per m2) would remain significantly lower than the average for benchmark facilities.
Table 7: Visitations forecasts post-development and in 2036
Milestone Visitation
Current situation (2017-18) 283,000
Visitations immediately post-development (2021-22) 339,000
Visitations in 2036 522,000
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5 DEVELOPMENT AND ANALYSIS OF OPTIONS 5.1 OPTION IDENTIFICATION
Options development included consideration of:
x a “keep safe and operating” option (Base Case) x major refurbishment of current facilities
x options for development of a new aquatic centre at an alternative location x demolition and redevelopment of Waves on the current site.
Base Case
The Base Case represents a “keep safe and operating” scenario. The Base Case is used as a baseline for comparison with other options and is a requirement of NSW Treasury for Business Cases that seek public funding. The Base Case assumes:
x minimal capital expenditure to replace plant and equipment and drainage for the Olympic pool, sufficient to meet water quality standards
x no additional investment to improve the functionality or capacity of the facility, or to improve disabled access provisions
x ongoing annual maintenance expenditure (by THSC and the operator) at 2017 levels
x continuation of current operational arrangements under the same, or equivalent, contractual conditions with a private operator
x limited growth in visitation over the period to 2037, as a result of catchment population growth x ongoing deterioration of the facility to 2037 in response to increasing visitation, and ongoing
under-investment
x ongoing annual operating losses, with a continuing need for THSC to subsidise Waves operations.
Major Refurbishment
A major refurbishment would focus on achieving water quality standards, and replacing or upgrading those facilities having the greatest impact on the user experience, including:
x pool areas x health centre (gym) x amenities
x kiosk/café x seating
x improved physical access.
A major refurbishment would include the following capital works:
x Refurbishment of the 50m Olympic Pool:
Replacement of the water filtration and pumping equipment
Replacement of the drainage system by a more contemporary drainage which allows for sufficient water intake
Addition of a disabled access by adding a ramp to access the swimming pool Additional works (excluding replacement of pool shell) to extend pool useful life x Removal of trampolines
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x Relocation of health club into a permanent purpose-built structure
Since the full refurbishment option would not include the replacement of pool shells, or the reconstruction of key structures (reception, amenities structures), this option will have a limited impact on the useful life of the complex.
Further, a full refurbishment would not provide an increase in pool capacity – and so would fail to provide sufficient aquatic capacity to cater for future demand. On this basis, it is unclear whether a refurbished facility would be attractive for a future operator, or whether improvements would be sufficient to eliminate the need for ongoing annual operator subsidies.
Preliminary estimates have indicated that a full refurbishment option would incur significant capital costs, but with limited benefits, and (in a number of respects) would fail to meet community expectations. On that basis, this option was discounted from further consideration.
New Aquatic Centre at an Alternative Location
The option of developing a new aquatic centre on an alternative site within the LGA was reviewed and was also discounted from further consideration because:
x THSC does not own a vacant site with suitable zoning to accommodate an aquatic centre x aquatic centres are not funded by Section 94 contributions, and the acquisition of suitable land
would need to be funded by Council reserves and would increase the project cost by an estimated
$5-10 million
x the community is supportive of locating the aquatic centre on the current site.
It is also noted that neither THSC or the community has identified the need for an additional aquatic centre to complement the services provided at Waves.
Full Redevelopment on the Current Site (Option 1)
Option 1 involves redeveloping Waves on the current site in response to user and community concerns, providing the community with a new aquatic facility. Table 8 provides a detailed description of the scope of Option 1, relative to the Base Case.
Table 8: Option Comparison
Base Case Option 1: Redevelopment
Olympic Pool • Refurbish the pool
• Change plant and equipment
• Replace tiles
• Upgrade drainage and filtration system
• Maintain 50m x 8 lanes size
• Upgrade drains, wet deck, end hobs, central return pipe and backwash tank
• Provide access ramp for disabled access
• Provide an additional plant room
• Demolish and reconstruct a larger pool with two extra lanes (50m x 10 lanes)
• Pool location may potentially change as part of the Centre’s replanning
External training free play pool 25m x 25m
N/A • Additional external pool for training and
free play. This pool would cater for activities and bookings, and relieve pressure from the Olympic pool
• Additional or repurposed equipment and plant room will be provided to the additional pools
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Base Case Option 1: Redevelopment
Indoor Learn To Swim Pool
• Do not modify or change the pool
• Only perform regular maintenance
• Dedicate one of the two new internal pools to swim lessons
• Size to be 25m x 6 lanes
• Internal air-conditioned space Splash Pool
(toddlers)
• Replace existing FWT (Filtration and
Water Treatment) plant • Demolish existing and build a new splash pad for children
Internal Activity Pool
(25m X 6 lanes)
N/A • Dedicate a second new internal pool to
activities as required
• Size to be 25m x 6 lanes Fitness centre /
Gym Do nothing • Relocate gym equipment into a new,
permanent, purpose-built structure
• Provide 3x distinct air-conditioned areas for cardio, strength and fitness
Two community
rooms N/A • Two multipurpose rooms for community
use
• Rooms will be air-conditioned and equipped with A/V.
The Hills Swimming and Life Saving Club
Do nothing • Dedicated Club House to improve the club’s
operations
Kiosk Do nothing • New kiosk / café / foyer with indoor and
outdoor areas
• Provide ample seating
Car park Do nothing • Provide additional parking spots by
adjusting surrounding landscape, without intruding into the rose garden or any adjacent land
• Provide underground parking with a minimum of 60 spots
Seating Area (visitors and spectators)
Do nothing • Provide more covered tiered seating
• Locate seating and food and beverage amenities closer to one another
Therapy features N/A • Include several therapeutic amenities: spas,
saunas (wet and dry) Amenities
(showers, toilets, change rooms, lockers)
Do nothing
Recreational
outdoor area Do nothing • Provide picnic, BBQ, and recreational area
• Provide casual seating The Operating Model
The operation of Waves is currently outsourced to a private operator, under a fixed-term contract. A number of operational models exist for aquatic centres, with different models offering relative advantages and disadvantages as shown in Table 9, below3.
Table 9: Advantages and disadvantages of various management operational models
Operational Model Advantages Disadvantages
Council Management • total control of operations and
maintenance • usually high overhead costs
• may be bound by processes and procedures which limit
3 Source: Guidelines for Outdoor Seasonal Pools, March 2016
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Operational Model Advantages Disadvantages
responsiveness to market opportunities
Outsourced Management (current situation)
• financial risk is transferred to operator
• relieves Council from the need to gain or build in-house experience in the field
• often proactive and experienced in responding to community needs
•
• does not completely relieve Council from overseeing operations
• requires careful development and evaluation of contract and tender documents
Voluntary community committee (may be volunteer committee, paid or unpaid, may be formed by local sports clubs, school committees or local business)
• generally the least costly option
• obtains highest level of community engagement, and reflects on visitations
• Council has less control over operations, but bears full risk
• skill level may be lower than required, and this would reflect on quality of service Committee, or subsidiary of Council4 • Council retains control over
operations
• may save on several costs and rates
• Responsibility of operations and delivery remains with Council
• Requires compliance with LGA and other requirements Many factors are relevant when assessing the suitability of an operational model for an Aquatic Centre5: x Asset Management:
minor maintenance and repairs major maintenance and repairs structural maintenance and repairs x Presentation of the facility:
the quality and standard of maintenance and cleanliness of the facility x Finance:
overhead costs
capital expenditures on upgrades, restoration or maintenance works operating costs (income and expenditures)
depreciation and/or loan servicing x Financial contribution:
currently the operator receives a subsidy, this financial contribution serves to guarantee the financial sustainability of the facility
x Control:
involvement in day to day operations pricing
staffing and operations
x Cost of changing management model:
staffing, redeployment, and redundancy costs x Responding to market demands:
governance and probity may lower responsiveness of Council to changes or community demands
x Longevity of management
4 formally constituted under Sections 41, 42 or 43 of the Local Government Act 1999
5 Guidelines for Sustainable Management of Community Recreation Facilities
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x Performance indicators operational KPI’s
meeting Local Government and community expectations x Core purpose
commercial facility public service and merit x Management capability
at both operational and managerial levels, a variety of skills are needed x Risk management
risks and mitigation measures vary depending on the chosen management model
The relevance and risks associated with these factors are assessed in the Guidelines for the Sustainable Management of Community Recreation Facilities.
THSC does not own or operate any other aquatic centre, and does not employ staff with responsibilities for operating aquatic centres. Therefore, a change to a Council-operated arrangement for Waves will be burdened by higher resourcing costs, with no opportunity to take advantage of economies-of-scale.
Further, THSC’s recent experience with an outsourced model has not led Council to seek a higher level of control of operational functions.
A high level of service is expected by the Hills Shire community, which a volunteer community committee or a subsidiary of Council may not be able to deliver.
Therefore, continuation of the outsourced management model is preferred following redevelopment, but with a greater emphasis placed on establishing effective performance incentives to optimise the user experience, and minimise costs to Council.
5.2 THE PREFERRED OPTION