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The economic evaluation of irrigation with particular reference to water harvesting systems : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Agricultural Science in Agricultural Economics and Farm Management at Massey University

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A thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Agricultural Science in

Agricultural ~conomics and Farm Management at Massey University

William Jack Sorrenson

1977

(3)

(i)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wishes to sincerely thank Dr A. Wright for his time, help and advice given throughout the course of this study.

Thanks are also due to Mr D.G. Bowler for his supervision of the technical aspects of water harvesting and to

Professor R.J. Townsley for his time and assistance on many occasions.

The author benefited from discussions with Dr A.N. Rae, Mr A. Chu, Mr K.I. Lowe and Mr R.E. Halford all of Massey

University, Dr P. Gander of the D.S.I.R., Palmerston North, and from helpful written communication from Mr T.D. Heiler of

Lincoln College.

The author also wishes to acknowledge the assistance and patience of his wife, Lynley, during the course of this study.

Thanks are due to staff of the Computer Centre, Massey University and to Mrs Henrickson who typed this thesis.

Also, the author wishes to gratefully acknowledge the financial assistance provided by the Economics Division, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ii

LIST Of" TABLES

iv

LIST OF' FIGURES

vii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1

2 WATER

HARVESTING FOR IRRIGATION

4

3

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF IRRIGATION SYSTEMS

19

4

PLANT WATER RELATIONS

39

5

THE SIMULATION MODEL

51

6

THE GRAZING SYSTEM MODEL

81

7

ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS OF THE CASE STUDY

117

IRRIGATION SYSTEM

8

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

131

APPENDIX

1

A CATEGORISED LIST OF M.A.F. IRRIGATION

141

ECONOMIC REPORTS

2

PASTURE GROWTH RELATIONSHIPS ANO PASTURE

144.

CONSERVATION ACTIVITIES

(5)

(iii)

3

DETAILS or THE LP

MATRIX 152.

4

GROSS

MARGIN

DETAILS

155.

5

IRRIGATION AND fERTILISER COSTS

160.

6

CASH fLOWS

162.

BIBLIOGRAPHY 164.

(6)

TABLE

2.1

4.1

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.5

5.6

5.7

LIST OF TABLES

Depth, surface area and storage capacity of the 'No.1 Dam'

Crop factors used for pasture and maize

~. ~

Effective crop root depth and water holding capacity of a Tokomaru silt loam

~sighted yield reduction factors for maize grain in the Manawatu

Monthly catchment yield data (m.m.), 15 years simulation, non-irrigated

Dam volu~e estimates obtained from the simulation model for the 'average' year

Dam volume estimates obtained from the simulation model for the 'dry' year

Irrigation interval, days

Strategy {i) - Mean (1959/60 to 1973/74) monthly pasture production {kg OM/ha), varying deficit, net water applied in parentheses {mm)

Strategy (iv) - Mean (1959/60 to 1973/74) monthly pasture production (kg OM/ha), fixed water

application per irrigation, varying cycle length

PAGE

14

41

42

55

67

69

69

74

75

75

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5.8

5.9

6.2

6.4

6.5

6.7

6.8

6.9

6.11

Strategy (iv) - Mean (1959/60 to 1973/74) monthly pasture production (kg OM/ha), fixed irrigation cycle, varying water application per irrigation

Days of maize growth

Restrictions imposed on the spelling lengths following grazing of pasture in each period

Assumed percentage of 'available feed' utilised by stock at three stocking rates

Pasture quality estimates assumed

Dry cow energy requirements

Dry cow feed demands (kg OM, non-irrigated pasture equivalents/cow/day)

Lactating cow energy requirements

Lactating cow feed demands (kg OM, non-irrigated pasture equivalents/cow/day)

Replacement stock energy requirements

Replacement stock feed demands (kg OM, non-irrigated pasture equivalents/lactating cow/day)

Animal activities - per hectare feed demands

Summary of the gross margins

Summary of the LP results

{v)

76

77

88

91

92

94

94

95

96

98

99

100

101

104

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7 .1

7.2

7.3

7.5

A2.1

A2.2

A2.3

A2.4

A2.5

A2.6

A2.7

A6.1

A6.,2

A listing of the normative analyses 119

Normative evaluation results 120

A listing of the positive analyses 123

Positive evaluation results 123

Sensitivity results - Normative evaluations 124

Sensitivity results - Positive evaluations 124

'Average' year, non-irrigated simulated pasture grO\ilth 144

'Average' year, irrigated II II

'Average' year, non-irrigated pasture growth/spell relationships

'Average' year, irrigated rt ti II relationships

'Dry' year, non-irrigated

"

II fl

relationships

'Dry' year, irrigated

"

II

"

relationships

Pasture conservation activities

Normative evaluation cash flows

Positive evaluation cash flows

II 145

146

147

148

148

149

162

163

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FIGURE

2.2

3.1

4.1

4.2

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

LIST OF FIGURES

Storage behavioural graph for the 'No.1 Dam'

Plan sketch of the Massey No.4 Dairy Unit water harvesting dam system

Longitudinal sketch of the Massey No.4 Dairy Unit water harvesting system

A schematic representation of the components of economic evaluation considered and their inter- relationships

Various relationships between relative evapo- transpiration rate and soil moisture tension

Relationships between ASM, Eo, soil moisture factor (P)

Diagrammatic illustration of the simulation model

Pasture growth rates 1972/73

Pasture growth rates 1973/74

Pasture growth rates; Average 1967/68 to 1972/73

Pasture growth rates; Average 1971/72 to 1972/73

Monthly rainfall means and standard deviations

Probability distributions of simulated annual pasture growth

(vii)

15

16

16

21

43

45

52

57

58

59

60

63

66

(10)

s.a

5.9

s.10

s.11

6.5

6.7

6.8

7.1

A2.1

A2.2

A3.1

Monthly rainfall and estimated evapotranspiration

Probabilities of moisture stress

Probabilities of water use

Probabilities of irrigations

Calving and dry period distributions

Calving distribution and lactation period

Feed distribution of replacement stock

Relationships between TGM, stocking rate and irrigation water

Relationships between economic response to irrigation and stocking rate

Relationships between irrigation water and time of application Stocking rate= 1.0

Relationships between irrigation water and time of application Stocking rate =

1.s

Relationships between irrigation water and time of application Stocking rats

=

2.0

Present worth versus discount rate - Analyses N3B and N68

An illustration of the pasture activities, non-irrigated (P001, •••• ,P078)

An illustration of the irrigatQd pasture activities

(roo1, •••• ,I14a)

Summary of the LP matrix

71

72

72

73

93

95

97

105

106

108

109

110

121

150

151

154

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