NT Pastoral Feed Outlook

(1)

NT Pastoral Feed Outlook

December 2014

The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in central Australia and fire risk.

You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at December 2014

Individual District Summaries:

Darwin District Katherine District Victoria River District Sturt Plateau District Roper District Gulf District Barkly District

Tennant Creek District

Northern Alice Springs District Plenty District

Southern Alice Springs District

(2)

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – December 2014

KEY Green = low risk Orange = watch Red = high risk

KEY ↑ = increasing trend ↓ = decreasing trend ↔ = steady

Northern Territory Pastoral Districts

Indicator Darwin Katherine VRD Sturt

Plateau Roper Gulf Barkly Tennant Creek

Northern Alice Springs

Plenty

Southern Alice Springs

Comments

2014/15 total

pasture growth

↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↓ ↔

Arrows indicate trend

compared to the long-term median.

Current estimated

standing biomass

↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↔

Arrows indicate trend since

previous quarter.

Current seasonal

outlook

↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓

Arrows indicate the trend

since previous quarter and taking into account the forecasted model predictions.

Current fire risk

↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓

Arrows indicate the trend

since previous quarter.

(3)

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at December 2014

Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/

The national outlook for December 2014 to February 2015 indicates that:

 Drier than normal across the NT

 Warmer than normal days and nights more likely across the NT

Climate influences include El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and average to cooler than average waters surrounding northern Australia.

Seasonal Indicators Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Current outlook:

El Niño Alert

El Niño ALERT Level (70% Chance)

El Niño-like impacts emerge in a number of areas

Many climate indicators remain close to El Niño thresholds, with climate model outlooks suggesting further intensification of conditions remains likely. Whether or not an El Niño fully develops, a number of El Niño-like impacts have already emerged.Indicators close to the El Niño thresholds include tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, which have now exceeded El Niño levels for a month, and the Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained at or near El Niño levels for three months. Other indicators, such as tropical cloud, trade winds and rainfall patterns, have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. This indicates a typical El Niño ocean–atmosphere interaction may not be fully locked in.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over large parts of southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above- average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Such impacts can often occur while an event is developing, as experienced in some locations over the past several months.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Current outlook:

Neutral

The IOD index remains neutral.

The latest weekly index value to 30 November is +0.2 °C. Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour a continuation of neutral IOD values for the remainder of the year.

The IOD typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter conditions to inland southern Australia during winter and spring.

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2014 to February 2015

Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.

December 2014 to February 2015

(4)

Darwin District

Risks:

- None to report

2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)

Pasture Growth*

(% of district)

Below Average 72%

Average 28%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Total Standing Dry Matter (% of district)

Below Average 86%

Average 14%

Above Average

<1%

<1,000kg/ha 80%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 20%

>3,000kg/ha

<1%

Fire Risk (% of district)

High 64%

Moderate 36%

Low

<1%

Area Burnt

(% of district) 22% (since 1 July 2014)

* In the Top End, pasture growth tends to be similar year to year regardless of rainfall. This is because pasture growth in the Top End is typically not water-limited and keeps growing until available soil nitrogen is exhausted. For this reason, any interpretation of growth being above or below the median should be treated cautiously because the actual difference between years is relatively small.

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth (December 2014 – February 2015)

Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth (July – December 2014)

Current Estimated

Total Standing Dry Matter

(5)

Katherine District

Risks:

- None to report

Pasture Growth (% of district)

Below Average 47%

Average 53%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 85%

Average 15%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 76%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 24%

>3,000kg/ha

<1%

High 47%

Moderate 53%

Low

<1%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(6)

Victoria River District

Risks:

- None to report

Below Average 37%

Average 61%

Above Average 2%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 39%

Average 46%

Above Average 15%

<1,000kg/ha 25%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 65%

>3,000kg/ha 11%

High 92%

Moderate 7%

Low 1%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(7)

Sturt Plateau District

Risks:

- As at 1 December 2014, 36% of the district had been burnt 2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)

Below Average 19%

Average 81%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 49%

Average 50%

Above Average 1%

<1,000kg/ha 60%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 39%

>3,000kg/ha 1%

High 69%

Moderate 23%

Low 8%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth (July - December 2014)

Current Estimated

(8)

Roper District

Risks:

- As at 1 December 2014, 28% of the district had been burnt 2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)

Below Average 73%

Average 26%

Above Average 1%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 63%

Average 36%

Above Average 1%

<1,000kg/ha 47%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 49%

>3,000kg/ha 4%

High 77%

Moderate 23%

Low

<1%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(9)

Gulf District

Risks:

- None to report

Below Average 51%

Average 49%

Above Average

<1%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 47%

Average 50%

Above Average 3%

<1,000kg/ha 43%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 51%

>3,000kg/ha 7%

High 81%

Moderate 16%

Low 3%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(10)

Barkly District

Risks:

- None to report

Below Average 35%

Average 57%

Above Average 8%

<500kg/ha 100%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 0%

>1,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 19%

Average 73%

Above Average 8%

<500kg/ha 45%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 30%

>1,000kg/ha 25%

High 47%

Moderate 40%

Low 13%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(11)

Tennant Creek District

Risks:

- None to report

Below Average 89%

Average 11%

Above Average 0%

<250kg/ha 100%

>250 & <500kg/ha 0%

>500kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 27%

Average 67%

Above Average 6%

<500kg/ha 26%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 35%

>1,000kg/ha 38%

High 79%

Moderate 19%

Low 2%

Area Burnt

(% of district) <1% (since 1 July 2014)

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(12)

Northern Alice Springs District

Risks:

- None to report

2014/15 Season (as at 1 December 2014)

Below Average 34%

Average 53%

Above Average 13%

<250kg/ha 83%

>250 & <500kg/ha 13%

>500kg/ha 4%

Currently

Below Average 12%

Average 75%

Above Average 13%

<250kg/ha 8%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 39%

>1,000kg/ha 53%

High 77%

Moderate 20%

Low 4%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(13)

Plenty District

Risks:

-

The district has experienced consecutive poor seasons. Both the 2012/13 and the 2013/14 seasons were well below average. As at 1 December 2014, 49% of the district had below average total standing dry matter and 29%

had extremely low levels (<250kg/ha).

Below Average 100%

Average

<1%

Above Average 0%

<250kg/ha 100%

>250 & <500kg/ha 0%

>500kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 49%

Average 47%

Above Average 5%

<250kg/ha 29%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 56%

>1,000kg/ha 15%

High 21%

Moderate 68%

Low 12%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth (July – December 2014)

Current Estimated

(14)

Southern Alice Springs District

Risks:

- None to report

Below Average 49%

Average 45%

Above Average 5%

<250kg/ha 99%

>250 & <500kg/ha 1%

>500kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 21%

Average 68%

Above Average 11%

<250kg/ha 8%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 63%

>1,000kg/ha 29%

High 72%

Moderate 26%

Low 2%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(15)

Pasture Information

The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS.

AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape scale.

Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total standing dry matter may be erroneous.

Disclaimer

While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use.

You should not rely upon information in this document for the purpose of making any business or investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your particular situation.

The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards

NT Pastoral Feed Outlook