NT Pastoral Feed Outlook

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NT Pastoral Feed Outlook

December 2015

The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in central Australia and fire risk.

You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at December 2015

Individual District Summaries:

Darwin District Katherine District Victoria River District Sturt Plateau District Roper District Gulf District Barkly District

Tennant Creek District

Northern Alice Springs District Plenty District

Southern Alice Springs District

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Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – December 2015

KEY Green = low risk Orange = watch Red = high risk

KEY

↑

= increasing trend

↓

= decreasing trend

↔

^{= steady}

Northern Territory Pastoral Districts

Indicator Darwin Katherine VRD Sturt

Plateau Roper Gulf Barkly Tennant Creek

Northern Alice Springs

Plenty

Southern Alice Springs

Comments

2015/16 total

pasture growth

↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↓

Arrows indicate trend

compared to the long-term median.

Current estimated

standing biomass

↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔

Arrows indicate trend since

previous quarter.

Current seasonal

outlook

↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Arrows indicate the trend since previous quarter and taking into account the forecasted model predictions.

Current fire risk

↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓

Arrows indicate the trend

since previous quarter.

For further information about this Outlook, please contact Dionne Walsh on 8999 2178 or Chris Materne on 8951 8135

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Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at December 2015

Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/

The national outlook for December 2015 indicates that:

• Wetter than normal across the NT in December

• Warmer than normal days more likely across the Top End and southern NT in January

• Warmer than normal nights more likely across the entire NT in December and January

Current climate influences include a combination of a strong El Niño in the Pacific, a decaying positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and very warm Indian Ocean temperatures.

Seasonal Indicators Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview Current outlook:

Positive El Niño Alert

El Niño ALERT Level (El Niño status)

A strong El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and is very likely to persist into early 2016.

A strong El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and is very likely to persist into early 2016.

The El Niño influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in the past depending on how quickly the El Niño event breaks down. However, on average an El Niño summer brings lower than normal rainfall across northern Queensland with a later start to the wet season, and a slight drying influence across the southeast. Conversely, inland WA often sees an increased chance of rainfall at this time of year under El Niño.

The warm Indian Ocean appears to have offset some of the drying influence from El Niño during the winter months.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean Current outlook:

Neutral

Positive IOD has broken down and is over

The positive IOD, which reinforced El Niño impacts since late August, has ended. This rapid decay is common at the start of the monsoon season. The IOD has little influence on Australian climate between December and April.

More broadly, Indian Ocean temperatures have remained warmer than average through 2015.

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2015 to February 2016

Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.

December 2015 to February 2016

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Darwin District

Risks:

-

None to report

2015/16 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2015)

Pasture Growth*

(% of district)

Below Average 47%

Average 51%

Above Average 2%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Total Standing Dry Matter (% of district)

Below Average 87%

Average 13%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 77%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 23%

>3,000kg/ha 0%

Fire Risk (% of district)

High 61%

Moderate 39%

Low 0%

Area Burnt (% of district)

53% (2015 Total Area Burnt) 21% (since 1^st July 2015)

* In the Top End, pasture growth tends to be similar year to year regardless of rainfall. This is because pasture growth in the Top End is typically not water-limited and keeps growing until available soil nitrogen is exhausted. For this reason, any interpretation of growth being above or below the median should be treated cautiously because the actual difference between years is relatively small.

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth (December 2015 – February 2016)

Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth (July – December 2015)

Current Estimated

Total Standing Dry Matter

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Katherine District

Risks:

-

None to report

Pasture Growth (% of district)

Below Average 32%

Average 65%

Above Average 3%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 78%

Average 22%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 64%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 35%

>3,000kg/ha 1%

High 87%

Moderate 13%

Low 0%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

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Victoria River District

Risks:

As of the 1

^st

December 93% of the district had a high fire risk 2015/16 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2015)

Below Average 11%

Average 70%

Above Average 19%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 50%

Average 43%

Above Average 7%

<1,000kg/ha 41%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 52%

>3,000kg/ha 7%

High 93%

Moderate 7%

Low 0%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

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Sturt Plateau District

Risks:

-

As of the 1

^st

December 93% of the district had a high fire risk 2015/16 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2015)

Below Average 13%

Average 87%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 51%

Average 49%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 63%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 37%

>3,000kg/ha 0%

High 93%

Moderate 7%

Low 0%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

(8)

Roper District

Risks:

-

None to report

Below Average 59%

Average 40%

Above Average 1%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 75%

Average 25%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 51%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 47%

>3,000kg/ha 2%

High 80%

Moderate 20%

Low 0%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

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Gulf District

Risks:

-

None to report

Below Average 47%

Average 52%

Above Average 1%

<1,000kg/ha 100%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 0%

>2,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 77%

Average 23%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 58%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 41%

>3,000kg/ha 1%

High 77%

Moderate 22%

Low 1%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

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Barkly District

Risks:

-

None to report

Below Average 53%

Average 37%

Above Average 10%

<500kg/ha 100%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 0%

>1,000kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 30%

Average 64%

Above Average 6%

<500kg/ha 57%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 24%

>1,000kg/ha 19%

High 34%

Moderate 48%

Low 18%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth (July –December 2015)

Current Estimated

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Tennant Creek District

Risks:

-

None to report

2015/16 Season (as at 1 December 2015)

Below Average 18%

Average 72%

Above Average 10%

<250kg/ha 100%

>250 & <500kg/ha 0%

>500kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 31%

Average 56%

Above Average 13%

<500kg/ha 29%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 27%

>1,000kg/ha 44%

High 74%

Moderate 23%

Low 2%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth (July - December 2015)

Current Estimated

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Northern Alice Springs District

Risks:

-

None to report

Below Average 52%

Average 47%

Above Average 1%

<250kg/ha 100%

>250 & <500kg/ha 0%

>500kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 15%

Average 83%

Above Average 2%

<250kg/ha 8%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 45%

>1,000kg/ha 47%

High 80%

Moderate 17%

Low 3%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Current Estimated

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Plenty District

Risks:

- The district has experienced three consecutive poor seasons. Pasture growth during early 2015 has slightly improved the amount of total standing dry matter, but pasture levels are still low in many parts of the district.

2015/16 Season (as at 1 December 2015)

Below Average 65%

Average 35%

Above Average 0%

<250kg/ha 100%

>250 & <500kg/ha 0%

>500kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 55%

Average 44%

Above Average 1%

<250kg/ha 35%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 53%

>1,000kg/ha 13%

High 19%

Moderate 65%

Low 16%

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth (July – December 2015)

Current Estimated

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Southern Alice Springs District

Risks:

-

None to report

Below Average 96%

Average 4%

Above Average 0%

<250kg/ha 100%

>250 & <500kg/ha 0%

>500kg/ha 0%

Currently

Below Average 38%

Average 62%

Above Average 0%

<250kg/ha 18%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 63%

>1,000kg/ha 19%

High 43%

Moderate 53%

Low 4%

<1% (2015 Total Area Burnt)

<1% (since 1^st July 2015)

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth (July - December 2015)

Current Estimated

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Pasture Information

The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS.

AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape scale.

Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total standing dry matter may be erroneous.

Disclaimer

While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use.

You should not rely upon information in this document for the purpose of making any business or investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your particular situation.

The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards any person for loss of damage caused by any use of or reliance on this information.