The use of models in planning: the development of a land use planning strategy.

(1)

Requirements

Planning Degree

Thesis Submitted in Partial. FuLfilment of

the for a

Master of T01Vll

"THE USE OF MODELS IN PLANNING - THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A LAND USE PLANNING STRATEGY"

by

P.G. Pak-Poy, B.E., M.Eng.Sc.

P.G. Pak-Poy

&

Associates Consulting Engineers

&

_Planners

Faculty of Architecture and Town University of Adelaide

Planning

May

1971

(2)

Background

Purpose

Background

Modelling Approaches

Planning Uncertainty

Operations Systems Analysis

Goals, Objectives

Page

2.2

)1

Forecasts

• population predictions economic predictions

and Criteria

2.4:

24 2.6

Plan Formulation

2.8

T ABLE OF CONTENTS

Summary

Signed Statement Acknowledgement

1.0

INTRODUCTION

some inadequacies

early planning techniques

need for analytical techniques and Outline of Thesis

2.0

LAND USE MODELS

milestones Some

model classification descriptive models

•

predictive models

•

prescriptive models Discussion

•

3.0

A FRAMEWORK FOR PLANNING and

Research and A Basic Framework

No.

1 1 1 q, 5 6

7 7 8 8 9 9 9 15 17

:18 18 19 22

Plan Evaluation

defining criteria

),1

cost effectiveness

•

34

(3)

Implementation Strategy

Background Study Purpose Objectives

Implementation

Background Study Purpose Objectives

Implementation

Page

45 45

No.

40 41

planning balance sheet goals-achievement

evaluation in practice sensitivity analysis flexibility

feedback

, aim of strategy need for knowledge process

community participation lack of knowledge

41 44

matrix

of

of urbanisation

community desires and attitudes

46 46

46 48 48

4.0

CASE STUDIES Introduction N IRWAD

and Criteria Forecasts

Formulation of Alternatives Evaluation of Alternatives Feature of Alternatives

cost effectiveness recommended plan

ADELAIDE

and Criteria

Forecasts and Plan Formulation Plan Evaluation

transport costs

public service costs

50

51

53

54

59

64

67

70

73

75

77

'81

81

83

86

(4)

Major Resuirements Major Improvements

Page

5.0

No.

1.0 2.0 .3.0

4.0

5.0 6.0

CONCLUDING REMARKS

APPENDIX

GENERAL

FEATURES OF THE PLAN TRANSPORT ASPECTS

.3.1

_General

.3.2

Travel for Plan 'A'

.3

•

.3

_Road _{- Plan}

.3. 4

Travel for Plan 'B ¹

.3.5

_Road

PUBLIC SERV ICES

4.1

_General

4.2

_{Plan 'A'}

4

•

.3

_{Plan 'B'}

SUM MARY OF ECONOM IC ASPECTS ADDITIONAL EVALUATION ASPECTS BIBLIOGRAPHY

- Plan 'A' 'B ¹

87

i i ii ii iv vii viii xi xii xii xiii xiii xiv xvi

(5)

c1asses,

mode1s, mod e1s, and

or p1anning SUMMARY

With the advent of comprehensive transportation studies over the 1ast severa1 years in Austra1ia, some inadequacies in 1and use p1anning have been high1ighted.

In genera1 there is seen to be a need for a more system

atic approach and a greater use of mode1s or ana1ytica1 techniques.

This thesis brief1y reviews transportation studies and p1anning techniques and then discusses the

deve10pment and current status of urban deve10pment mode1s/

c1assifying them into three viz;

(i) descriptive (ii) predictive

(iii) prescriptive mode1s.

It is noted that the mode1s form on1y a part of the

of the

p1anning process and that they are rea11y sub-mode1s tota1 system.

Using a systems ana1ysis approach, a p1anning framework or system mode1 is then deve10ped which forms

the basis for the preparation of a p1anning strategy, within which detai1ed deve10pment and transport p1ans can be evo1ved.

The framework is designed to faci1itate the use of mode1s as befits their operationa1 status and to high1ight areas where judgements and intuition are required.

In deve10ping the p1anning system mode1 a discus

prob1ems

sion is given on forecasting techniques, re1ating to the definition of objectives and criteria, difficu1ties encountered in obtaining community goa1s and rationa1 pub1ic participation, considerations re1ating to the formu1ation of p1ans, techniques of p1an eva1uation inc1uding sensitivity

(6)

analysis and flexibility tests, and implementation strategy.

Two case studies are given to illustrate the efficacy of the procedures proposed. The first example related to the preparation of a strategic plan for a city with an expected population of 200,000 people, whereas the second case study concerns the hypothetical choice between two alternative forms of development over the next five years for metropolitan Adelaide.

In the final chapter a brief discussion is given on worthwhile research items.