CHAPTER IV Results & Discussion
4.4 Correlation Coefficient (CC) between observed and simulated Temperature .1 Distribution of CC between observed and simulated temperature of March 2014
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maximum in the west northwest and northern region of the country and its value is 2.82oC at Rajshahi. The MAE of temperature has been found to increase from southern region towards north northwestern region of the country. The MAE of temperature for 72-hour prediction (Fig. 4.3.6c) is found minimum in the southern region and its value is 0.67oC at Hatiya. The MAE of temperature is found maximum in the north-northwestern region and its value is 2.81oC at Rajshahi. The MAE of temperature increases from southern region towards north- northwest and northeast regions of the country.
The MAE of temperature in May 2014 for 107 days prediction (Fig. 4.3.6d) is found minimum at Satkhira, Faridpur, Madaripur, Barisal and Patuakhali regions and its value is 1.21oC at Satkhira region. The MAE of temperature in May is found maximum in the south- southeastern, southwestern and northern regions of the country and its value at Cox’s Bazar is 6.04oC.
4.4 Correlation Coefficient (CC) between observed and simulated Temperature
72
similar. But the CC is higher for 24-hour prediction than those of 48, 72 hours and 107 days prediction.
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
Fig. 4.4.1: Distribution of CC between observed and lead time predicted Temperature of (a) 24, (b) 48, (c) 72 hours and (d) 107 days prediction of March 2014.
4.4.2 Distribution of CC between observed and simulated temperature in April2014 The CC between observed and simulated temperature in April 2014 for 24, 48, 72 hours and 107 days prediction at different stations of Bangladesh are presented in Figs. 4.4.2(a-d) respectively. Distribution of CC between observed and 24-hour lead time predicted temperature for April 2014 is found maximum (Fig. 4.4.2a) at Rajshahi, Ishurdi, Chuadanga, Tangail, Mongla, Patuakhali, Sitakunda, Chittagong, Khepupara and Kutubdia regions and its value is 0.84 at Rajshahi and Patuakhali. The CC of temperature has been simulated minimum in the northeastern region and its value is 0.53 at Sylhet. Distribution of CC
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
73
between observed and 48-hour simulated temperature for April 2014 is maximum (Fig.
4.4.2b) all over the country except at the boundaries and at Tangail where the value is 0.83.
The CC in April is found minimum in the southeastern part of the country i.e. Teknaf area and its value is 0.49.
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
Fig. 4.4.2: Distribution of CC between observed and lead time predicted Temperature of (a) 24, (b) 48, (c) 72 hours and (d) 107 days prediction in April 2014
Distribution of CC between observed and 72-hour simulated temperature in April 2014 is found maximum (Fig. 4.4.2c) at Rajshahi, Tangail, Comilla, Feni, Hatiya, Sandwip, Sitakunda and Chittagong regions and the maximum value is 0.82 at Feni region. At Teknaf, Rangamati, Khulna, Sylhet and Faridpur regions, the CC is found minimum and its values are observed 0.50, 0.54, 0.56, 0.56 and 0.59 respectively. The distribution of CC between
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
74
observed and 107 days predicted temperature for April 2014 is maximum (Fig 4.4.2d) in west-northwestern region and its value is 0.71 at Rajshahi. The minimum value of the CC is found in the southeastern and northeastern regions and its value is 0.12 at Teknaf.
The CC between observed and simulated temperature in April 2014 for 24, 48, 72 hours is found maximum in west-northwestern and south-southern regions and the 107 days predicted of the CC is found maximum in west-northwestern region of the Country. From the analysis, it is found that as the progression of simulated time the CC has decreased in the month of April 2014.
4.4.3 Distribution of CC between observed and simulated temperature in May 2014 The CC between observed and simulated temperature in May 2014 for 24, 48, 72 hours and 107 days prediction at different stations of Bangladesh are presented in Figs. 4.4.2(a-d) respectively. Distribution of CC between observed and 24-hour simulated temperature for May 2014 is found maximum (Fig. 4.4.3a) in west-northwestern region and its value is 0.82 at Chuadanga and Rajshahi region. The CC of temperature has been simulated minimum in the southeastern region.
Distribution of CC between observed and 48-hour simulated temperature for May 2014 is found maximum (Fig. 4.4.3b) in the west-northwestern and northeastern regions and the maximum value is 0.72 at Chuadanga. The CC is found minimum in the central to southeastern region i.e. Rangamati, Bhola, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Sitakunda, Teknaf, Dhaka and Kutubdia and its values are 0.04, 0.05, 0.11, 0.17, 0.21, 0.22 and 0.37 respectively. Distribution of CC between observed and 48-hour simulated temperature for May 2014 is maximum (Fig. 4.4.3c) in the west-northwestern and northeastern regions and its value is 0.78 at Chuadanga. The CC is found minimum in the central to south-southeastern region and its value have found minimum at Feni, Bhola, Rangamati, Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar, which are 0.03, 0.04, 0.08, 0.10 and 0.14 respectively.
Distribution of CC between observed and 107 days predicted temperature for May 2014 is maximum (Fig. 4.4.3d) in the west-northwestern regions and its value is 0.66 at Dinajpur.
The CC of temperature has been found minimum in the central to south-southeastern regions and its value is 0.00 at Barisal, Kutubdia, Sandwip and Cox’s Bazar i.e. there is no correlation at these stations.
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88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
Fig. 4.4.3: Distribution of CC between observed and lead time predicted Temperature of (a) 24, (b) 48, (c) 72 hours and (d) 107 days prediction in May 2014.
From the analysis of CC between observed and simulated temperature in May 2014 for 24, 48, 72 hours and 107 days prediction, it is found that the CC is maximum in the west- northwestern region and minimum value is found in the central to south-southeastern regions.
It has also seen that the CC has been found to decrease with the progression of lead time of prediction. Overall, the CC is found maximum in March 2014 and after that it has decreased with the progress of simulated time and also progress of time from March to May 2014.
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
76