CHAPTER IV Results & Discussion
4.3 Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of Temperature .1 MAE of Temperature for March 2010-2013
4.3.5 MAE of Temperature for April 2014
The MAE of temperature in April 2014 for 24, 48, 72 hours and 107 days prediction at different stations of Bangladesh are presented in Figs. 4.3.5(a-d) respectively. The MAE of temperature for 24- hour prediction (Fig. 4.3.5a) is found maximum in the west-northwestern, northeastern and southeastern regions and its value is 2.79oC at Ishurdi. The MAE of temperature is found minimum at Khulna, Mongla, Patuakhali, Dhaka, Chandpur, Feni and Hatiya regions and its value is 0.45oC at Mongla. The MAE of temperature has been found to increase from central region towards west-northwestern region of the country.
The MAE of temperature for 48-hour prediction (Fig. 4.3.5b) is found maximum in the west- northwestern, northeastern and southeastern regions and highest value is found 2.37oC at Dinajpur. The MAE of simulated temperature is seen minimum at Khulna, Mongla, Barisal, Patuakhali, Dhaka, Chandpur, Feni and Hatiya regions and its value is 0.50oC at Hatiya. The MAE of temperature increases from central region towards west-northwest and southeastern regions of the country.
MAE of temperature for 72-hour prediction (Fig. 4.3.5c) is found minimum at southwestern to eastern regions and its value is 0.50oC at Hatiya. The MAE of temperature in April is found maximum in the west-northwest and south-southeastern regions and the lowest value is 2.37oC at Dinajpur. The MAE of temperature increases from central region towards west- northwest and southeastern regions of the country.
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88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal
Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal
Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
Fig. 4.3.5: Distribution of MAE of Temperature (a) 24, (b) 48, (c) 72 hours and (d) 107 days prediction in April2014 all over Bangladesh
The MAE of temperature for 107 days prediction in April 2014 (Fig. 4.3.5d) is found minimum in the central to western regions, having its minimum value of 0.94oC at Tangail.
The MAE of temperature is found maximum in south-southeastern, southwest and northern regions of the country and its value at Cox’s Bazar is 6.67oC. In the central region, the average MAE of temperature found at Dhaka is 2.17oC. From figure, it is seen that the MAE of temperature increases continuously from central region towards south-southeastern region of the country.
(c) (d)
(a) (b)
70 4.3.6 MAE of Temperature for May 2014
The MAE of temperature in May 2014 for 24, 48, 72 hours and 107 days prediction at different stations of Bangladesh are presented in Figs. 4.3.6(a-d) respectively. The MAE of temperature for 24-hour prediction (Fig. 4.3.6a) is found minimum at Khepupara, Sandwip, Chittagong, Chandpur and Hatiya regions and its value is 0.66oC at Hatiya. The MAE of temperature is found maximum west-northwestern region and its value is 2.88oC at Rajshahi.
The MAE of temperature increases from south towards north-northwestern region of the country.
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E
21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N
BarisalBhola Bogra
Chandpur Chuadanga
Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur
Faridpur
Feni
Hatiya Ishurdi
Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi
Satkhira
Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet
Tangail
Teknaf Rangpur
Khulna Mongla
Khepupara Patuakhali
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar Kutubdia
Rangamati Sandwip
Fig. 4.3.6: Distribution of MAE of Temperature (a) 24, (b) 48, (c) 72 hours and (d) 107 days prediction in May 2014 all over Bangladesh
The MAE of temperature for 48-hour prediction (Fig. 4.3.6b) is found minimum in the southern region and its value is 0.67oC at Hatiya. The MAE of temperature is found
(a)
(c)
(b)
(d)
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maximum in the west northwest and northern region of the country and its value is 2.82oC at Rajshahi. The MAE of temperature has been found to increase from southern region towards north northwestern region of the country. The MAE of temperature for 72-hour prediction (Fig. 4.3.6c) is found minimum in the southern region and its value is 0.67oC at Hatiya. The MAE of temperature is found maximum in the north-northwestern region and its value is 2.81oC at Rajshahi. The MAE of temperature increases from southern region towards north- northwest and northeast regions of the country.
The MAE of temperature in May 2014 for 107 days prediction (Fig. 4.3.6d) is found minimum at Satkhira, Faridpur, Madaripur, Barisal and Patuakhali regions and its value is 1.21oC at Satkhira region. The MAE of temperature in May is found maximum in the south- southeastern, southwestern and northern regions of the country and its value at Cox’s Bazar is 6.04oC.
4.4 Correlation Coefficient (CC) between observed and simulated Temperature