Md. Mokhles ur Rahman* Md. Mansur Hossen**
Abstract: Currently, Bangladesh is in age dividend stage. Over the next 10 years, the working-age population structure has been presumed to grow more than 2.2 million annually. Currently, however, the unemployment rate is 4.2%. A plethora of reasons can be sketched for this overwhelming unemployment in Bangladesh like minimum linkage of education with employment, absence of investment in productive sectors, absence of proper human resource planning and so on. The main driving force of the Bangladesh economy is overseas employment. In this regard, the government hardly has any enterprise to make the expatriate workers skilled and fit for the global competitive market. This paper is based on secondary sources including newspapers, reports of Bureau of Statistics, journal article, etc. intends at finding the trends of unemployment in Bangladesh. The Bureau of Statistics' (BBS) report of labour force survey reported that the actual number of unemployed is 48.28 million. The International Labour Organization (ILO) defines, an unemployed person is a person of working age 15 or over who meets three conditions simultaneously:
being without employment, meaning having not worked for at least one hour during the reference week; being available to take up employment within two weeks; having actively looked for a job in the previous month or having found one starting within the next three months. Of the total unemployed population, only 2.8 million people fulfill the norms of ILO. Most of the unoccupied people of Bangladesh belong to the young (productive) age. The report also shows that, in 2016, the youth population in Bangladesh has been about 52 million which is more than 33 percent of the total population. The population is an indispensable element for nationwide development. Without productive vocation, they are not only failing to play a developmental role but also become a burden for the family, society.
Keywords: Unemployment, Demographic Dividend, Education, Human Resource, Bangladesh
* Md. Mokhles ur Rahman, Former Secretary, Govt. of Bangladesh. Faculty, North South University, MPA, Harvard University, USA
** Md. Mansur Hossen, Lecturer, Department of Public Administration, Stamford University Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Unemployment Tension in Bangladesh: Dimensions and Trends
Introduction
Employment displays better livelihood and unemployment leads to poverty.
Globally people desire to have a healthy life. There is a rift between need and want. To have a sustainable standard of life we need to fulfill our least necessity.
Employment is the means of an ample life. Employment opportunity comes from both public and private sectors. The Government of any country is the central source of employment for the subjects. Nevertheless, the private sector has ample possibilities for employment. On the other hand, entrepreneurship is also employment known as "self-Employed". Virtually, demand is an endless phenomenon whereas the need has a limit. In this case, employment has a positive role to fulfill the desire and required. Without employment, it is very arduous to have a good livelihood for the bulk population.
Bangladesh is an overpopulated country parallel to its size of land. The government is anxious about the ever-growing population of the country. Like other third world countries, unemployment is an enormous problem in Bangladesh. The Total labour forces are 6.35 crore of whom 4.35 crore are male and 2.00 crore where unemployment rate is 4.2% (BBS, 2018). Of the total unemployment, a large number are from the age dividend. Besides, the female unemployment rate is also high. Furthermore, the Bureau of Statistics (BBS, 2018) reported that about 15.1% of total unemployed are highly educated which is alarming for Bangladesh.
A plethora of reasons can be outlined for this overwhelming unemployment in Bangladesh like minimum linkage of education with employment, lack of investment in fertile quarters, the inadequacy of proper human resource planning, insufficient budget in human resource development as well as poverty. The main driving force of the Bangladesh economy is overseas employment. A large number of unemployed (mainly unskilled) people fled the country to other countries (the Middle East and Europe) in search of a job. These migrant workers are the lively contributor to the economy of Bangladesh. Recent statistics reveal that the migration rate is under the expected rate which is creating tension to the development planners. The present study aims to focus on the trends of unemployment in Bangladesh along with its dimensions. This paper is based on secondary sources including newspapers, reports of the bureau of statistics, journal article, etc.
Objectives of the Study
The main objective of the paper is to find the unemployment trends in Bangladesh. There are some other objectives also like:
• To find out the reasons behind the unemployment
• To identify the loopholes in defining unemployment
• To recommend some suggestions to increase employment.
Comilla University Journal of Social Sciences
Methodology
The study is qualitative in nature. Data has been collected from various secondary sources like Reports of BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics), Labor Force Survey, Journal articles, Online and printed newspapers as well as the website of ministries related to labour forces.
Literature Review
Several pieces of research have been conducted by scholars on unemployment and development throughout the world. Krugman (1994) mentioned great post- Bretton-Woods recessions and G-7 nations' situation of unemployment rate especially the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and West Germany. He addressed unemployment issues in the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development countries and discussed the crucial distinction between cyclical and structural movements in unemployment and high unemployment in the industrial nations at that time. Marsden (1995) found that the rules and institutions of collectives bargaining hurt employment and unemployment. Ahn, Garcia, and Jimeno (2004) mentioned that unemployment duration has a small, negative impact on individual well-being. Kingdon, Knight (2005) mentioned that progresses in the labour market grip the vital to South African wealth and permanency from growing unemployment and underemployment the threat to social and political phenomena. Islam (2009) indicate that although economic growth has been satisfactory, employment performance has been less so—even taking into account the substantial jobs generated in the export-oriented, ready- made garment industry. Besides, the employment challenge is about the transfer of workers from low- to higher- productivity sectors, not just about the sheer number of jobs. Collins (2009) mentioned that increasing unemployment rates the USA are key reasons leading to this feeling of emergence. Gaston, Rajaguru (2010) found that upper export prices, money accrual in tradable belongings, productions reduce the equilibrium unemployment rates. Kim (2011) in his paper The Effect of Trade on Unemployment: Evidence from 20 OECD countries found that a rise in trade has no significant influence on unemployment rates. Uddin and Uddin, Osemengbe O. (2013) mentioned that by which rate unwaged graduates wander the path after the National Youth Services and mentions that the govt.
should spend comprehensively on education to allow the youth to convert self- sufficiency instead of job seekers through skills progress and training.
Chowdhury, Hossain (2013) mentioned that human capital that is unemployment plays a very vital part in the growth of the economy by examining the macroeconomic factors of unemployment rate in Bangladesh Aurangzeb, Asif(
2013) examined macroeconomic factors of the unemployment for India, China and Pakistan for the period 1980 to 2009. The consequences of regression exposed that there is a significant effect of all the variables for all three countries.
Unemployment Tension in Bangladesh: Dimensions and Trends
Wajid, Kalim (2013) found that in the long term inflation spreads unemployment significantly; economic growth has an extensive adversarial influence on unemployment in the long run and the short run correspondingly. M. Ilo (2015) found that market capitalization had no impact on unemployment rates. A.n.m Nurul Haque (2017) mentioned two disappointing matters that nearly 25 percent of the youth population in the country are inactive and the prevalence of unemployment is greater among the higher educated section of the youths than the lees educated youths. He mentioned that economic growth doesn’t ensure youth employment. NasrinAkter (n.d) found that economic growth has a significant effect on unemployment and there is a negative relationship between economic growth and unemployment
Present Scenario of Unemployment in Bangladesh Unemployed by Age group and Sex
Figure 1: displays the total numbers of the unemployed person based on age and sex.
Source: Labor Force Survey 2016
The Labor Force Survey 2016 found an estimated 2.68 million unemployed persons aged 15 or older. Of them, 1.36 million were youth, aged 15–24 years (50.8 percent) and 1.32 million were adults, aged 25+ years (49.2 percent). The absolute number of unemployed females (1.33 million) was almost the same as male counterparts (1.35 million).
744 335 267
1347 614
437 279
1358 1330
772
546
2677
15-24 25-29 30-64 Total
Unemployed persons (in 000) aged 15 years or over , by age group and sex
Male Female Total
Figure 2
Source: Labor Force Survey 2016
If we look at the percentage (Figure 2) of unemployment we can find that about 50.8% of the total unemployed are aged 15
% are female. The data also shows that about 28.9% of workforces who are at 25 29 are unemployed. The chart also illustrates that 50.3% of total unemployed are male and on the other hand 49.7% are female.
Unemployed Population by Education Level
Figure3 and 4 reflect the distribution of the unemployed in number and percentage in terms of their education level.
Figure 3
Source: Labor Force Survey 2016 27.8
12.5 22.9
16.3 50.8
28.9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
15-24 25-29
Unemployed as % of Total Unemployed
Male Female
None Primar y
Second ary
Total 300 428 897
Female 173 226 474
Male 126 202 422
0 10002000 3000 40005000 6000
Thousand
Unemployed Population by Education Level
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the percentage (Figure 2) of unemployment we can find that about 50.8% of the total unemployed are aged 15-24 of whom 27.8% are male and 22.9 also shows that about 28.9% of workforces who are at 25- 29 are unemployed. The chart also illustrates that 50.3% of total unemployed are male and on the other hand 49.7% are female.
Unemployed Population by Education Level
bution of the unemployed in number and percentage 10
50.3 10.4
49.6
20.4
0
30-64 Total
Unemployed as % of Total Unemployed
Female Total
Higher Second
ary
Tertiar
y Others Total
638 405 9 2677
285 171 0 1330
353 234 9 1347
Unemployed Population by Education Level
Unemployment Tension in Bangladesh: Dimensions and Trends
The figure illustrates that who were unemployed in 2016-17, 0.3 (at 11.2 percent) million had no formal education, about 0.428 million (at 16.0 percent) had completed primary school, 0.897 million (at 33.5 percent) had finished secondary school, 0.638 million (at 23.8 percent) had finished higher secondary school, 0.405 million (at 15.1 percent) had graduated from university and nine thousand persons had other forms of education.
Figure 4
Source: Labor Force Survey 2016 Youth Labor forces in Bangladesh
Figure 5 illustrates the number of youth labour forces in % of total labour forces
Figure 5
None Primar y
Second ary
Higher Second
ary
Tertiar
y Others Total
Total 1.5 2.7 4.6 14.9 11.2 4.6 4.2
Female 2.5 4.8 7.4 26.2 21.4 0.3 6.7
Male 1 1.8 3.2 11.1 8.3 4.9 3.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Percentage
Unemployment Rate by Level of Education
15-19 20-24 25-29 Total
Total 7 10.4 14.2 31.6
Female 6.3 12 16.7 35
Male 7.4 9.6 13.1 30.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Youth Labor Force as % in Total Labor Force
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Source: Labor Force Survey 2016
As shown in figure 5, more than 20.0 million youth aged 15-29 participated in the labour forces, with several male (13.1 million) and female (7.0 million) youth among them Their proportion within the total labour force represented 31.6 percent. The figure also shows that the percentage of the female labour force (35%) is higher than the male labour force (30.1%).
Youth unemployment in Bangladesh
Of the youth labour force population aged 15-29 (20.0 million) an estimated 2.1 million of them (10.6% ) are unemployed.
Figure 6
Source: Labor Force Survey 2016
Figure 6 shows that of the total unemployed 79.6% are youth while 29.6% of them are aged 20-24. The figure also illustrates that the number of youth aged 25- 29 are more unemployed (28.9%) than the aged 15-19 (21.1%).
Trends of Unemployment in Bangladesh
Total labour forces, employment & unemployment situation
Bangladesh is a labour surplus country with a population of 160.8 million. In 1995-1996 population was 122.1 million and the labour force was 36.1 million while the percentage of the labour force in the total population was 29.56 percent.
With the increase of population share of the labour force in total population increased and stood at 38.3% and the labour force increased to 56.7million in
21.1
29.6
28.9 79.6
Youth unemployed as % of total unemployed
15-19 20-24 25-29 Total
Unemployment Tension in Bangladesh: Dimensions and Trends
2010 while the population was 147.7 million. It can be seen from figure-7 that percentage of the labour force had been increased by 63.5% from 1995-96 to 2017. It is observed that since 1995-96 to 2017 average annual growth of the labour force was 2.06%. From 2010-2011 to 2016-2017 about 6.8 million labour forces added in the labour market with 11.97% of growth rates.
Figure 7
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2018
It is obvious from the figure that the trend of unemployment is upward. In 1995, the total number of unemployed was 1.3 million but in 2017 it increases to 2.7 million.
Rate of employment and unemployment
Between 1995 and 2016 period 27.4 million new labour joined the labour force.
The rate of employment is 3.2 percent but the growth rate of the labour force is more than the rate of employment. From figure 8 it can be seen that in 1995-1996 the rate of unemployment was 2.5 percent and in 1999-2000 the rate increased to 4.3 percent but from 2005-2006 the rate declined. In 2010 the rate of employment increased but the rate of unemployment was also increased and stood at 4.5 percent. After that in 2017, the rate of unemployment goes downward to 4.2%.
The rate of unemployment was 2.5 percent in 1995-1996 but it increased to 4.2 percent in 2017.
1995- 1996
1999- 2000
2002- 2003
2005- 2006
2010- 2011
2016- 2017 Labor Force 36.1 40.7 46.3 49.5 56.7 63.5
Employed 34.8 39 44.3 47.4 54.1 60.8
Unemployed 1.3 1.8 2 2.1 2.6 2.7
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Million
Total labor forces, employment &
unemployment situation
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Figure 8
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2018
It can be seen from 6.2 that labour force growth rate is higher than the rate of employment and the rate of unemployment is higher than the rate of employment.
It is also observed from figure 8 that except 2002-2003 the rate of unemployment is always higher than the rate of employment.
Expatriate Employment
Remittance sent by the Bangladeshi expatriates makes a significant contribution towards accelerating the economic development of the country, such as addressing unemployment problems, poverty reduction and increasing foreign exchange reserves. A sizable portion of the Bangladeshi labour force is employed in the Middle –East and many other countries of the world. The manpower export has been increasing in recent years. About 0.9 million workers went abroad in the quest for jobs in FY 2016-2017, which was 32.11 % higher than the previous fiscal year.
Figure 9
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2018 1995- 1996
1999- 2000
2002- 2003
2005- 2006
2010- 2011
2016- 2017
Rate of Employment 1.9 2.9 4.3 2.3 3.1 3.2
Rate of Unemployment 2.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.2
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rate of employment and unemployment
785
475 427 439
691 441 409
461 685
905
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Number of Expatriate workers (in 000)
Number of Workers
Unemployment Tension in Bangladesh: Dimensions and Trends
Figure 9 shows that in 2007-2008 the number of expatriate workers was 0.785 million and it decreased in the successive three years respectively 0.475, 0.427 and 0.439 million. In 2011-2012 the number of workers reached at 0. 691 but the next financial year it again decreased to 0.441 million. The figure also illustrates that from the financial year 2014-2015 to 2016-2017 the number of expatriate workers is increasing regularly.
Reasons for Unemployment
Minimum linkage of education with employment
Bangladesh is a populated country with 71% of the literacy rate (BBS, 2018).
Education is the first and foremost condition of employment. Bangladesh has 38 public and 100 private universities throughout the country. But an immense number of subjects or departments have no specific job field. Public universities are focusing on arts and social sciences though it has less implication on the job field. Lack of technical subjects in public universities is so acute. As a result, after graduation and post-graduation the young graduates don’t find any job related to his/her concerned subject. As a result, most of the students are hankering after civil service even though they have a technical post. In 36th civil service examination, a student from medical background holds the first position in foreign affair.
Lack of investment in the productive sector
Investment both the public and private sectors is one of the main sources of employment. Investment leads to employment opportunities, capital formation, and further investment. Corruption like money laundering from both public and private sectors hampers the employment opportunities in Bangladesh political turmoil. The investors, both national and international are not interested to invest here due to moil as well as lack of infrastructural facilities. Private investment during the fiscal year 2010-2011 was 5104 US$ Million which dramatically declined1032 US$ Million in 2015-2016 which has a great impact on employment. In 2011-2012 investment made the employment opportunity of 0.5 million people which decreased at 0.2 million in 2015-2016(BIDA,2018).
Insufficient investment is also responsible for unemployment in Bangladesh.
Absence of proper human resource planning
Overpopulation of a country can be turned into an asset through proper human resource planning. The absence of proper human resource planning is also responsible for unemployment in Bangladesh. The government has no specific human resource policy on division of labour. Before finishing secondary education there are no formal technical institutions to make the people skilled in a specific field. It takes 16 years to pass secondary and at least 25 years to complete graduation. A great number of students hanker after jobs till the age of 30/32. The maximum entry-level age limit for a government job is 30 years for general citizens and 32 years for the children and grandchildren of freedom
Comilla University Journal of Social Sciences fighters. On the other hand, the government has no policy for senior citizens though most of them are physically fit for the job after retirement at the age of 59.
Insufficient budget for human resource development
A human can be turned into a resource through a sufficient budget on health and education. Bangladesh allocates fewer amounts of money on human development sectors.
In the fiscal year 2018-2019, the government allocates for education and health 2.09% and 0.92% of total GDP respectively which indicate the negligence of policymakers in these sectors. Due to poor allocation in these sectors, people are not being physically fit and technically sound for employment.
Unplanned family size
Unplanned family size is one of the main reasons for unemployment in Bangladesh. The population growth rate is 1.37% (BBS, 2018) in Bangladesh.
The fertility rate of women is 2.10% and 62.3% of people use contraceptives for family planning (BBS, 2018). Due to social structure and cultural phenomena, couples tend to produce more children. Poor parents are unaware of the future of their children which results in unemployment.
Poverty
Poverty is also responsible for unemployment in Bangladesh. The highest poverty rate in the country is 24.3% and the lowest is 12.9%. Due to poverty, they are unable to invest in productive sectors. Though there is a chance of taking microcredit from different banks, financial institutions and NGOs but due to the high-interest rate, it becomes very difficult for them to repay the loans. For these reasons they remain unemployed and do odd jobs in informal sectors.
Climate change
Climate change is also responsible for unemployment in Bangladesh as well.
Drought in the northern part, flood in the northeast and cyclone of the southern part of Bangladesh is the result of climate change. Droughts, floods as well as cyclone make a large number of people unemployed in Bangladesh.
Unemployment Tension in Bangladesh: Dimensions and Trends
Recommendations
I. Educated unemployment is a great problem in Bangladesh. An educated unemployed is a victim of double loss. At the time of the study, he/she is to expend money for his/her studies and he/she lost income during studies when he/she could earn. The government bears a portion of educational expenses. So unemployment is a huge wastage of resources. Therefore, manpower planning is essential for Bangladesh. We need to establish more vocational institutions for vocational training so that we can produce more skilled manpower.
II. The age of entry in jobs in Bangladesh civil Service is also discriminatory. For the general job seeker age is fixed at 30 years. Due to the increase of retirement age of the service holders for 2 or 3 years employment in government and the semi-government organization has been stagnant. The young job seekers are deprived of their due share because of an increase in service age. The age of entry-level may be fixed at 32 years.
III. In the government and semi-government organizations, different quotas systems are prevailing. All sorts of quotas should be rearranged for the greatest interest of the nation. Due to quotas, the meritorious job seekers are deprived of their due share and the nation is also deprived of their service.
IV. To create employment opportunities more industries should be set up but the investment climate of the country is not favorable. Necessary steps should be taken to improve the investment climate of the country. The present trend of growth of industries is capital intensive nature. To create more jobs, labour-intensive production technology should be adopted in rural intensive.
V. Technical education has a direct relationship with employment. More technical job oriented education system should be introduced. Technical education centers are to be set up for the people who want to go to foreign countries for employment.
VI. Labour productivity in Bangladesh is very low level in comparison to other Asian Countries. In China, it was US$ 339, Indonesia US$ 335, Srilanka US$ 232, India US$ 208, Vietnam US$ 136 but in Bangladesh, it is only US$ 125. So good jobs should be created where labour productivity will be high.
VII. Steps should be taken to improve bilateral relationship with Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, UEA, and Kuwait to increase manpower exportation in those countries. To solve the problem of unemployment development of local industries is a vital factor. Necessary measures should be taken to protect local industries. To increase overseas employment exploration of new labour markets is very important. For this purpose, measures should be taken urgently through our embassies abroad.