1 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC INFLUENCES IN UNITED STATE’S
FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
CHAPTER 1
1. Introduction 1.1 Back ground
The American Israel Public Affair Committee (AIPAC) is a group which
advocates pro Israeli policies to the Congres and the excecutive branch of the
United states.1 This group It has managed to infiltrate the vital part of decision
making process of United State foreign policy and succesfully obtained
themselves to goverment elite. In this case, AIPAC also supports to spread the
extreme views2 within the group. In other word, through AIPAC tried to get
support from American politicians for the benefit of the organization. AIPAC
tried created a good political atmosphere in order to maintain support for Jewish
agenda. Every policy of United States toward Isarel will be always under the
control of AIPAC. AIPAC moreover succeeded in creating an unwritten rule,
even the smallest protest againts Zionist regime would be considered as a form of
1
Windham, Mircea, 2010, AIPAC Organisasi berbahaya di Dunia, Pustaka Solomon, Yogyakarta,,page 7
2
2 insulting jews and culprit could be accused of anti-jewish or anti-Semitic.3These
view embeden are the United States foreign policy.
AIPAC Establesed on 1953 by Isaiah L. Kenen. AIPAC is one of the many
interest group in America and yet the most powerful. Among the many
organizations of Jewish lobby, AIPAC is one of the most influential and the
biggest of dozent of Jewish organizations in U.S. quoting from The New York Times in 6 June 1987, and Fortune magazine in 19974. AIPAC become frontier of all the Zionist organization in Uncle Sam. It took a grip in all aspect of life;
economic, social, political, military, perse. All of this important aspect were made sure to move along the priorities and target which defined and directed by AIPAC.
AIPAC is for certain has high bargain position. It was proven, by the solid base
line of finacial sustainability provided by government AIPAC member whose
runing the office.
AIPAC was taken for granted in United States decision making process. It
was because AIPAC does not hestite to overflow the donation to Americans.
Sources of donation were collected from various ways among other coming from
the Jewish exodus whom living in the United States. The main reason the exodus
donated certain amount of money and trust AIPAC to run it because they want to
express their solidarity and care for the brother and sister who are lives in Israel.
The AIPAC, which currently has around ten thousand member. Managed their
3
Obama- Israel and AIPAC Two Dueling Video, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/obama-israel-and-aipac-two-dueling-videos/2012/03/04/gIQAqn1irR_blog.html acces again at 13:10 date, 21 of juny 2013
4
3 regular meeting to share their views and planned many action to defend the
Israeli’s existence.
U.S and Israel has close relations. It can be understand with slight glance of
demographic chart. Which 2.1 percent of population with jews.5 Through United
State AIPAC try to expand their infuence on United Nation and international
institution to gain support on Tel Aviv status qou. AIPAC intend to use those to
support to keep Israel out from various thread and the potential wars in the future.
The AIPAC support from International Society ment to justified the course of action
taken by Israel military that engage in serious conflict since arab war.
Iran nuclear program been proceeded since long time ago6. But the focus of
attention limited on 2006 as momentum when Iran deemed a violation of Non
proliferation treaty (NPT). In that year, the controversy surrounding the issue of
Iran’s nuclear program escalated into an International crisis. And the response of
the Western countries increasingly vociferous, and became more intense by
excessive media coverage. The mass media blowing up of the issues Iranian
nuclear and made them appear as a threat of human being existence. Propaganda
through the mass media increasingly provoke Iran to escalate the nuclear plans. In
2006 soon after the hectic reportage Iran gallantly striven and levelling up to their
nuclear uranium and enrichment and brought the international attention.
5
An Excel spreadsheet of the 2011 population size tables http://www.jewishdatabank.org/PopulationStatistics.asp see more http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usjewpop.html February, 03 , 2013
6
4 Bush administration quite responsive to the development of Iranian nuclear
program. Once he stated, in order to deal with Iranian nuclear development and
avoid “latent effect”, military strike should be concidered be option. This
alternative would be chose especially if only Iran continues and refuse to be open
and transparent about the nuclear program.7 Bush’s statement supported by
similar statement from Vice President Dick Cheney, he said that Iran is in a ranks
top global threat-a-list. Cheney also said that Iranian nuclear crisis could trigger a
preemptive8 attack against Iran from countries like Israel or United State’s. Iran is indeed show the capacity to posses nuclear weapons.
In this context, Bush declarated that Iran an actual threat to world peace
because possesion of nuclear weapon. It is reasonable for the United State bring
this issue to the United Nation Security Council and ensure that Iranian nuclear
program has a potensial harm for international problem. Pucntiliously the Bush
statement confirm U.S policy Consequently relied on sanctions, whether to freeze
Iranian assets in the U.S. or emphazing ban and economic embargo.
The election in 2008 placing Barack Obama as new president in U.S,
replaced George W Bush, promised a new political direction. Compared to Bush,
Barack Obama is more subtle to the countries with considered enemies and be
more benign. For interest group like AIPAC it is important to sustain govermnent
7
Bush Won’t Rule Out Action Against Iran Over Nukes, Reuters, accessed
http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran.htm, 29 Mei 2012 8
Pre-emptive defense is a doctrine that developed after the tragedy of 11 September 2001 in the United States. This doctrine first priority to attack the enemy or the elements that are considered enemies of the state before the state or the elements to attack the United States. The doctrine of preemptive implemented by the Government of the United States when it invaded Iraqin 2002in
5 support but Obama appear tougher than Bush's when it came to the matter of
affirmative action on nuclear. With a new political direction there is the necessity
for AIPAC to keep control over U.S foreign policy by securing government seat.
In this new administration, Obama was more lenient in dealing with
countries in the Middle East, especially Iran. It can be seen from Obama's
statement over the importance of ``constructive relationships” believed could
create opportunities for Iran to play an important role in the world arena. Its
started with respect and Appreciate Mullah’s role in all the muslim’s aspect of
life, and in Iranian government and politic. This form of action produce positive
change in term of U.S-Iran relationship.
This Different approach from Obama create inconvenient situation for U.S
goverment and their allies. Especially with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu. Once Obama and Netanyahu reportedly arguing on the matter of
Iranian nuclear. Zee New proclaimed, Netanyahu continued to ask Obama to respond quickly9. While Obama prudently calculate the output to attack Mullah
state would lead Israel to the edge of catastrophe. Under Obama, U.S foreign
policy seem favoured to corner Iran with mild sanctions than the prior existence
policy such as harsh economic embargo or travel prohibition, or even option for
military attack. To satisfied AIPAC‘s demand Obama make astonising statement
to considered military forces but only after the other option failed. This posture
not hastily, it came with concideration and a lot of factor involved.
9
Obama Netanyahu Akan Bertemu Bicarakan Nuklir Iran
6 The new sanctions targeted on Iran’s arm exports. U.S requested their allies
and economic partner’s to not involve in any kind of arm transactions. Tanks,
missiles, warships would be in the untradable list. This is Obama version of
pressure for Iran. The mutualy advantange U.S-Israel, AIPAC without worsening
the condition with Iran. Obama anticipated the chance of Iran the nuclear card and
prevent Israel to engage in a nuclear war, also to maintain security in the Middle-
East.
Under the AIPAC Influence, the United State led the international public
opinion to halt Iranian nuclear program. This was done through various of ways,
bureaucraticly and through the mass media. At the times U.S sponsored United
Nations, European countries and Israel to impose sanctions on Iran related to its
nuclear program. First, by Resolution No.1737 (December 2006), the United
Nations issued to halt the nuclear activities but Tehran ignored it and the second
Resolution No.1747 came after Tehran resist the first call.
These sanctions include travel ban for Iranian officials and employers
involved in nuclear project also seven members of the Revolutionary Guards10
does not seclude this prohibit list. Sanctions also cover voluntary restrictions by
countries and financial institutions to make new commitments in terms of grants,
financial assistance and concessions to Iran, except for humanitarian purposes.
10
7 This is also valid for several individuals and companies which listed by
government to frozen their assets because of involvement in this program.11
1.2 Research Question
Based on brief ilustration in introduction the ultimate Question from this
riset is how the significance of AIPAC Influences in United State’s foreign policy
toward Iranian nuclear program?
1.3 Literatur Review
Before the researchers conducted a study on the Role of AIPAC in U.S.
Foreign Policy On Iran Nuclear Case, researchers will first describe the previous
research based on the article written by M. Khoirul, by tittle, Perbandingan Kebijakan Luar Negeri terhadap Iran-Irak Dalam Penyelesaian Dugaan Kepemilikan Senjata Pemusnah Massal, masa George W. Bush 2001-2008. In this article Khoirul write, there are similarities between U.S. foreign policy
whichis applied against Iraq and Iran is a repressive manner. In the face of this
American act quickly to over ride this problem. America quickly imposed
sanctions on Iraq and Iran. But if it is seen more in America actually implement
its policies with different ways.
The United States foreign policy implemented to against Iraq is more
offensive than Iran, because US use “Soft policies” toward Iran. The U.S. chose a
military option to stop and destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction then the
11
As Jatuhkan Sanksi Perusahaan Perorangan Terkait Program Nuklir Iran
8 U.S.in resolving the Iranian nuclear program by diplomacy such as the
implementation of the 2003 Tehran agreement and the treaty of Paris of 2004.
In this paper also discusses the success of Iranian developing nuclear
technology, which ultimately must confronthatred Iranian American countries.
U.S then also accuses its nuclear program will be used as a Weapons of mass
destruction. I see, in the khoirul it just shows how the confrontation occured
betwen the two sides, Iran and the U.S are caused by Iranian development nuclear
technology, but in this context he was not explain how it turn out a policy of
nuclear, in which there is a political game that is held by a neo-conservative
grioups, and AIPAC is one of them.
Other article from Azarine Delinda12 wrote in tittle: PNAC dalam Kebijakan Luar Negeri WAR on TERRORISM Amerika Serikat pada Era Presiden George W. Bush. Azarine explained In this paper that raised PNAC as a neo conservative groups are very influential in the United States, the group is
also doing the same thing, namely AIPAC perform strategies to be taken into
account by the United States, other than by way of bureaucracy, they also do
opinions public control through the mass media, so that the policies are
formulated as planned by this group. What distinguishes the author of this paper is
the result of policies with different cases. Azzarine She was not explore deeply,
how WAR on TERRORSM policies take many discuss, as some calculate, pro
and cons adn how strong the influences of the PNAC in this case as a
neo-Conservative group.
12
9 The next research entitled Strategi AIPAC Memperkuat Pengaruhnya Dalam Kebijakan politik Luar negeri Amerika Serikat Terhadap Palestina Di Bawah HAMAS13written by Dony Arif Nurhadi14. This paper discusses rejection and the banning of the United States in support of the defense of Israel
from attacks the Hamas terrorist as acts based on the existence of Israel interest
groups are very influential on Capitol Hill. The Israeli group known as AIPAC
(American Israel Public Affairs Committee), which is a group that is coordinated
and organized. This group has a professional and a very significant role in terms
of lobbying and influence policy makers of U.S. foreign policy. As listed in the
Fortune magazine (1997) after the magazine claim that AIPAC is the most powerful group in Washington DC Even AIPAC was runner up position after the
American Association of Retired People (AARP).
Through AIPAC, Israel received support from the United States to forbid
and reject the participation of Hamas in the legislative elections of 2006. AIPAC
also try to give influence policy makers to express rejection and prohibition
against the participation of Hamas into the Palestinian Parliament. This is be
evidenced in the 2005 AIPAC annual conference ever held, where one of the even
on the importance of efforts to the pressure on the U.S. Congress to propose a bill
that aims to isolate Hamas and to stop Iran’s nuclear. Besides, AIPAC also
reminded the Congress about the rising Islamic Fundalisme and push to combat it.
13
Nurhadi, Dony Arif, 2009, Strategi AIPAC Memperkuat Pengaruhnya Dalam Kebijakan politik
Luar negeri Amerika Serikat Terhadap Palestina Di Bawah HAMAS,
http://publikasi.umy.ac.id/index.php/hi/article/viewFile/404/1515 Accesed May 2 2012 14
10 In the thesis, he was not explains how non government as the mass media in
the United States also have roles, but in the context of this case the role of the
mass media is also very important in influencing public opinion. After all that is
said by the media sepert Patrick O'Heefernan on Mass Media and American
Foreign Policy: Insider Perspectives on Global Journalism and the Foreign Policy
Process. Patrick explained that the media is as a means of providing information
that is relatively fast and accurate. Here, media can be a source of major
considerations in making an actor's foreign policy.15
Other literature from book, Israeli Vs. Iran: The Shadow War, By,
Yaakov Kattz and Yoaz Hendel.16 Iran and Israel hostilities have started since along ago. Especially since 1979 revolution has succeded Reza Syah. Israel and
U.S as a best alliance make a good ties. Iranian nuclear issue one of the cases
writen on this book. Iran ambition to continues and increase its nuclear uranium
was judged breached of peace. Both of them (Iran and Israel) was competing on
perceptions. The option from Israel to use military strike, because murder and
sanction toward Iran will never halt Iran to stop it’s nuclear.
In my thesis more emphasis on significance of AIPAC in U.S foreign
policy during the Bush and Obama reign toward Iranian nuclear program. The
time limit that I use its be differentiator which previous literatur.
15
Ratnachrista.RS. 2003, “Peran News Corporations Dalam kebijakan Luar Negeri Amerika Serikat Menginvansi Irak , http://journal.unair.ac.id/filerPDF/global05%20retnachrista.pdf accessed May 05 2013
16
11
There are similarities between
U.S. foreign policy whichis
applied against Iraq and Iran is
a repressive manner. America
quickly imposed sanctions on
Iraq and Iran. The United
States foreign policy
implemented to against Iraq is
more offensive than Iran. The
U.S choose a military option to
stop and destroy Iraq's
Influencing policy makers.
Pressure to U.S. demands
Hamas isolation Bill. Raising
12
and U.S as a best alliance make
13
Obama administration are not
too strong. Funding provided
to the presidential election. The
people AIPAC and influential
14 further strengthening the
AIPAC view to America
1.4 Framework 1.4.1. Significance
Significance is the quality of being worthy of attention; importance. But
in statistics is the extent to which a result deviates from that expected to arise
simply from random variation or errors in sampling.17 Other definition a measure
of the confidence that can be placed in a result, esp a subtantive causal hypothesis,
as not being merely a matter of chance. Also the imporrtance that it has, usually
because it will have an effect on situation or shows something about situation.
But what I mean of the significance here how AIPAC become is influence
AIPAC in several line its very important, and it has effect on situation of the U.S
foreign policies toward Iranian nuclear program under Bush and Obama
administration
1.4.2. Framework Theory Decision Making Process 1.4.2.1. Bureucracy Politic
Graham T. Allison is a political scientist for his book Essence of Decision
its Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. He developed theoritical of Decision
17
15 making process, and divided into three categories : Rational Actor, Organizational
Process Model and Govermental Politics Model or Bureaucratic Politics Model.18
Rational Actors. A rational Actor Model in international relations should
have two essensial components : a decision-theoritic and a game-theoritic one.
19Rational Model Actor oscillates between decision and choice where” decision
presuppooses a decider and choice among alternatives with reference to some
goal. Human beings act in rationality with certain policy concepts, as policy
means realitation in anumber of particular instances of any agent’s objective.
These concept identify phenomena asa ctions performed by purposeful agent.20
The second, its Bureaucartic Politics. The Bureaucratic Politics has been
one of the most frequently appiled frameworks in foreign policy analysis. At the
same time, it is safe to say that the model has also been among the most heavily
constested concepts in the field. At first glance, the parsimony of the bureaucratic
politic is truly appealing. The model focus on bargaining processes between
bureaucratic actors within government. Actors are driven by interests of their
respective organizations.21
18
Graham T. Allison. Essence of Decision.1971. Boston: Little Brown. On Mas’oed, Mochtar. 1990. Ilmu Hubungan International: Disiplin dan Metodologi. Jakarta: PT pustaka LP3ES Indonesia,page. 234 Model and the Cuban Missile Crisis: National Policy,Organization Process And Bureaucratic Politic, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P3919.pdf Accessed October 19, 2013
21
The Bureaucratic Politics Model and Poliheuristic Theory,
16 The third of three Alliosn model is Govermental Politcs. This Model views
the actions of government as political resultants. Unlike other models, this model
considers decision as the output of the game played bu government” this model
proposed to explain particular formal of the governmental decision was made and
the pattern of behaviour emerged.
Bureaucratic politic used to describe the subject of the matter over
decision-making process of foreign policy by Graham T. Allison. Bureaucracy
political its one of the three model from decision making prosess. Foreign policy
emerging from a bargaining22 political process and this is the core of a decision
making social process.
Bureaucratic actors that are invloved in the bargaining processes not only
differ concerning their policy preferences but also with respect to poer. Generally
speaking, power is understood as “effective influence on government decisions
and actions”23
Prayer such as president, minister, law maker, advisor and who stand an
bureaucracy trying to set goal, with assess various alternatif of means, they set the
option through an their intellectual process, so no player who can get all the
desired in this bargaining process. All player have different interest and view the
issue, this make debatable. As a determint of foreign policy in studying the
decision making process of foreign policy, bureaucracy political model
emphasizes bargaining games.
3rQeq14GACw&ved=0CDwQFjAI&sig2=cdWrarMLDRtmLtFrSutQng&usg=AFQjCNEMp2YJ3 t0J6IrkeupE75FzTy4XeA, aceessed 10092013
22
Bargaining along regularized channels a players positioned hierarchically within the goverment. 23
17 1.4.3. Framework Political System
This was formulated by David Easton. Systematic Political is not to advance
a distinctive view of the metaphysic and epistemology, but based on the views
that have been widely accepted, this theory does not explain the origin of norm,
but more on how it work and integrated within political system. Framework of
political system explains that the resulting policy is the result of the conversion of
the input and support in the form of demand processed in a systematic way by the
political system, and produce a decision or action which called output. Output is
generated in the form of policies, can be accepted or rejected by the environment
depends on the input that has been formulated previously.
It can be seen from the policies issued by the United States to Iran, linked to
Iran's nuclear case either in the form of sanctions or military attack, the result is
formulated from demands of interest groups such as AIPAC. Where the output is
a policy to support Israel,
If we describe the scheme can be simplified as follows:
Demand of Group Policy
AIPAC U.S to IRAN
OUTPUT Polit ical
Syst em (Whit e House & Congress) INPUT
18 One of the variables, inputs include demands and support. The form of the
demand does not have to come from the system as in high politics, i.e: war,
revolution, etc. But it can be a form of pressure comes from the normal political
life, such as economic, cultural, social, educational and so on. Easton claims
forms divide into two kinds, namely demands from internal (intra-social
environment) as well as the form of demands from external (extra social
environment).24
Other variables in the input is support, according to Easton support is a form
of behavior or called with a view or state of mind. This form of support is often
seen in the form of follow-up action, should it be a statement or stance of the units
in the political system or the environment. But support can also be attitudes or
strong tendencies to act for others. Support is usually derived from interest groups
or political units that require new leadership to address the issue of political
system.25
1.4.4. Model of Policy Influencer
The relation between actors in the country with the decision makers are
called "policy influence system" or commonly called the system of policy
influence. Policy influence system of any country is a series of reciprocal
relationships are very complex, between policy makers with its policy influencers.
Policy influencers often considered vital, because it is a source of support for
policy-makers in executing policy.
24
Easton,David, 1988, Kerangka Kerja Analisa Sistem Politik (terj.), Jakarta: Bina Aksara., 117-120.
25
19 In his book, Introduction to International Politic / Introduction to
International Politics, Coplin analyze the influence of system structure of four
categories similar that raised by the four types of Gabriel Almond, namely the
political elite that includes elected officials as party, the administrative elite, elite
interests and elite communication, while according to Coplin:
1. Bureaucrats (bureaucratic influencers). The term is used to refer to
various individuals and institutions as well as in the executive branch
of government organization that helps decision makers, and
implementing the policy.
2. Partisan26 (partisan influencers). This Influencers to demands of
society translates into a demand politically, that demands to decision
makers regarding government policies.
3. Interest groups (interest influencers), consists of a group of people
who join together series of the same interests. The group is required to
hand over the resources to get the support of decision makers. In this
case the question is the source of financial support.
4. The media27 (mass influencers), the formation of an opinion or public
opinion climate, that is used by policy makers through the mass
media.
26
we distinguish influencers of decision-makers, then the category influencers participants was not included elected officials as proposed Almond, except at the same they play a role in the party. William D. Coplin, 2003,Introduction to International Politics: A Theorical Overview, Pengantar Politik Internasional: Suatu Telaah Teoritis (Translated by: M. Marbun), CV. Sinar Baru, Bandung,second edition, page, 82
27
20 In this study, researchers put more emphasis on the third category, ie
interest influence. It because it consists of a group of people joined together with a
common interest, which is not large enough to be the basis for the activities of the
group, but it is required to hand over the resources to get the support of policy
influencers or decision makers else. Most of this interest is economical because
people are motivated to act collectively through common interests. The interests
of the non-economic nature can also be used as the basis for their actions,
especially when there are ties between their ethnic or geographic.28
In the United States, interest groups play an important role in influencing
U.S. policy toward Israel, especially through the award of funds to some leaders
of the party and the people who have the power to determine the voting, even the
interest groups that exist in the domestic United States, able to influence foreign
policy. AIPAC is an interest group of influencers from the all is that goes to
government board through representatives in the bureaucracy. The groups of
Israel in the U.S individually and institutionally is undeniable and this was
happened trez ferpent.29
In an article stated that almost all of the Middle East policy of the U.S.
government influenced by the Israeli lobby machine, AIPAC especially.30
28
Ibid,85 29
Mustofiah, Dewi, 2011, Dahsyatnya Lobi-lobi Gila Internasional Israel, IRCiSoD, jogjakarta, 153-154.
30
21 1.4.5 Interest Groups
In the community life, be it a group or individual we can not let go of than
an interest. Interests that could be achieved with a variety of different ways
according to the agreement which the group. The origin of the sample taken to
articulate the interests of the group to create and made interest groups.31
This interest groups are often understood as a number of people who have
similar personality traits, attitudes, beliefs and / or goals agreed to organize
themselves to protect and achieve a goal.32
Regarding the limitation or understanding interest groups, Euegene J. Kolb,
in his book, A Framework for Political Analysis stated as follows:
"a collectivity of individuals who either formally or informally organize cooperate to protect or promote some common, similar, identical, or a shared interest or goal.33
In connection with the subject of different types or kinds of interest groups,
the Almond differentiate into four types or types as follows:
a) Anomic groups, its generally spontaneous groups with a collective
response or spontaneusly formed which concern over a specific issue.
31
Drs. Haryanto, Sistem Politik: Suatu Pengantar, Liberty, Yogyakarta:1982, hal. 72, qouted on Gabriel A. Almond and G.B. Powell Jr., Comparative Politics: A Developmental Approach, Little,Brown and Company, 1996, FourthIndian Reprint, 1978,page. 74
32
Kelompok-Kelompok Kepentingan,
http://ambhen.wordpress.com/2010/04/20/kelompok-kepentingan/di acces 8.56 date 2/4/2012 33
22 b) Non-Associational group, which is formed when there is a common
interest to fight (temporary activities). Rarely well organized with
dipendent upon the issue activity on the hand.
c) Institutional group, it a interest group that emerged in the political
institutions and governance functions articulating interests, such as
certain groups within the armed forces, bureaucracy and political
parties. It mostly formal with political and social function to the
particular interest. And the last is
d) Associational group is group of already exist for the reason
profesionals association with their primary activities.,.34
Each group has a different strategy to achieve the effect and the group is
trying to making demands on the network to respond to, a strong network was
made to influence the parties to be decisive in the policy.
AIPAC can be classified as an interest group that is institutional, as it has a
role in influencing U.S. foreign policy. As a group that has members and financial
resources AIPAC clearly positioned as one of the factors that have input as a
function of interest articulation in influencing the policy process.
1.5. Method of Research 1.5.1 Time Setting.
Eksplanatife In this research, study in 2006-2013, the reason the author
select 2004 is because as a starter momentum that due Iran had violated the
agreement of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But does enclose the possibility for
34
23 the author to not ignore the events of the past that are relevant, in order to
facilitate a historical overview explaining the dynamic of the sequence of events
related to the case.
1.5.2 Focus of Research
Research on Significances of AIPAC influence in the U.S. foreign policy toward Iranian nuclear program, the author sets the focus on strategy and Jewish groups in the U.S. foreign policy in addressing the nuclear case of Iran in Bush
and Obama Administration.
1.5.3 Data Collection Technique
Data collection techniques associated with data mining techniques
conducted through library / study literature, by collecting data from a variety of
literature, such as books, journals, newspapers (print), magazines, official
documents and internet (internet) related to those discussed by the author.
Alternately, data collection techniques initiated by the authors to collect as much
data as possible, after the data were collected were selected and grouped into
individual chapters to the systematics discussion of writing.
1.5.4 Data Analysis Techniques
This study used qualitative data analysis techniques involving causality.
This data type is an information about a phenomenon that is not described using
numbers and statistics. The figures are available to describe and interpreted in the
form of sentences or paragraphs. The technique of data analysis is done through
several stages of the classification of the data that has been selected using theory
24 1.5.5 Level Analysis of Research
Based on the methodology and the discipline of International Relations,
there are two levels of research:
1. level of explanation (Dependent) : is impact on the units of analysis that
be observed
CORELATIONIS REDUCTIONIS REDUCTIONIS
NATION AND
In this riset: level of analysis (independent) is AIPAC's influence role as a
group at lower levels and units of explanation (dependent) policy of the United
States as a country the higher level so we can say inductionis
35
25 1.5.6 Type of Research
Explanative is the Type of research that used in this writing. It explan the
relationship between the variables, and to test hypotheses previously formulated
and analyzed with the relevent theories. So that it will obtain factual data to
support the elaboration of issue .
1.6 Hypotheses
Based on the elaboration nature of problem in the back groud I came the
profesional hypothesize that the significances of AIPAC influences in U.S.
foreign policy toward Iranian nuclear program, it have played significant
influences, During 2006 until 2013, but some of periode AIPAC has the
difference influences, its because several factors. In addition many pressures that
came on every line of life such as political, economic, and social etc. it translate
into four kind of influencer bureucracy, participant, interest group and mass
media. this is ultimately reflected two different policies during Bush and Obama
26 1.7 Systematics Writing
Systematics of this paper can be described by the arrangement of this
chapter as follows:
CHAPTERI: Introduction
In this chapter there are several points, namely: Background Issues,
Framework Rationale, Hypothesis, Purpose, and Systematics Research
Methodology Writing.
CHAPTERII: U.S Foreign Policy Toward Iranian Nuclear Program
In the Second chapter the author will try to explain about some of the
foreign policy of the United States toward Iran, especially those involved in the
nuclear case either in the form of sanctions directly to the Persian nation and
influence given to the international world in which the authors view that the
policy-influenced by several factors. In other hand, the author also describes
American and Persian state relation.
CHAPTERIII: AIPAC, and U.S Foreign Policy
In this chapter will be discussed the history and profile of AIPAC, which
is a key pillar for all Zionist organizations that exist in the land of Uncle Sam.
This chapter also describes about the network or AIPAC relationships that exist in
the United States. AIPAC Position in American foreign policy making.
CHAPTERIV: The analyse significances of AIPAC influences in U.S. Foreign
Policies toward Iranian nuclear program
27 DESIGN PLOT
Demand Capit ol Hill & Washingt on AIPAC
BUSH OBAM A
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISRAEL
PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN U.S
FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR
PROGRAM
THESIS
This is arranged and proposed to fulfill a requirement to achieve a bachelor’s title in Political Sciences (S.IP)
Department of International Relations
Waidatun Hasanah NIM (09260139)
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT
FACULTY OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES
UNIVERSITY OF MUHAMMADIYAH MALANG
ii
ENDORSEMENT SHEET Name : Waidatun Hasanah
Student Number : 09260139
Department : International Relations
Faculty : Social and Political Science
Title :THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISRAEL
PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN US.
FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR
PROGRAM
This thesis has been defended in front of Board of Thesis Examiners Faculty of Social and Political Sciences
Department of International Relations and hereby stated PASSED
On: Friday Date: October 18, 2013
Place : The Laboratory of International Relations, UMM
Endorse
Dean of Faculty of Social and Political Sciences UMM
Dr. Asep Nurjaman, M.Si
Board of Thesis Examiners:
1. Ruli Inayah Ramadhoan, M.Si ( )
2. Rio Hinata, Ph.D ( )
3. Gonda Yumitro, MA ( )
iii
THESIS APPROVAL SHEET
Name : Waidatun Hasanah
Student Number : 09260139
Department : International Relations
Faculty : Social and Political Science
Title : THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –
ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) IN US
FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR
PROGRAM
Approved,
Advisor I Advisor II
Gonda Yumitro, MA Helmia Asyathri, S.IP
Endorse
Dean of Faculty Head of International Relations
of Social and Political Science Department
iv
THESIS OFFICIAL REPORT Name : Waidatun Hasanah
Student Number : 09260139
Department : International Relations Faculty : Social and Political Science
Title :THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN US. FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
November 11 2012 Thesis Proposal
November – February Guidance
February 10 2013 Approved Proposal Exam
February 12 2013 Proposal Exam
February-Maret Revisi Seminar
Maret Chapter II Approved
April-July Chapter III Approved
August- September Guidance
October Chapter IV Approved
October 04 2013 Exam Approved
October 18 2013 Thesis Examination
Malang, November 14 2013
Dean of Faculty of Social and Political Sciences UMM
v
ORIGINALITY PRONOUNCEMENT
The person who has signed below,
Name : Waidatun Hasanah
Birth place, date : Batang, December 03 1988
Student Number : 09260139
Faculty : Social and Political Science
Department : International Relations
Stated that a thesis entitled:
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISREAL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN U.S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Is not other, neither partly nor entirely, except in the quotation form where the
sources had been stated aright.
Hereby this pronouncement sheet is made authentically, and if this statement
is not true, I am ready to obtain sanction which is appopriate with the valid
regulation.
Malang, November 14, 2013
vi PREFACE
With all the writer turning thanks to Allah SWT, who has been giving us
some mercies and blessing. All grace and guidance and invocation and salutation
to the Prophet Muhammad SAW who has guided from the darkness to the
brightness and cleverness. so the writer can complete the paper.
This is in the writing of this, my first paper, about the significance of
AIPAC (American-Israel Public Affair Committee) influences in the U.S foreign
policy toward Iranian nuclear program. Something interesting here, discuss about
how the AIPAC try to persuade U.S to halt Iranian nuclear program since
2006-2013. But some of the year the AIPAC significance was decline.
In preparing this paper, the author realize there are still many deficiencies
that still need improvement and this paper is still also far from perfection.
Therefore criticms and suggestions are constructive, the author would expect,
especially from reader of this paper. will be better.
Hopefully this paper can valuable contribution and useful for International
Relations studies especially in University of Muhammadiyah Malang.
Malang, November 14, 2013
Author,
vii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND MOTTOS
“You do not alive at once.
You only die once and live every day, do much better.” DEDICATE FOR BOTH OF MY PAREANTS
Thankfulness to Allah SWT.
1. This thesis is presented for my beloved parents, Mulyadi and Suharti, for
the supports, motivation, and gives me their blesses, and keep the hope.
Sincere Thank you, for my sister Unik Isnaeni and her husband Afid
Ridho Aji, happy ever after.
2. An appreciation for the cheers unstoppable supports, and motivation was
made during this thesis writing for Haryo Prasodjo.
3. Acknowledgements the author accompanied respect goes to my advisor,
Gonda Yumitro., MA and Helmia Asyathri., S.IP. who always advise,
guide, and support. For my examiners: Ruli Inayah Ramadhoan, S.Sos.
M.Si and Rio Hinata Ph.D thanks you so much.
4. Great thanks for all honorable International Relations lecturers. Mrs. Ayus,
Mr. Syaprin, Mr. Tony, Mr. Dion, Mr. Ery, Mrs. Ningrum, Mr. Sam’ani,
Mr. Yatno, Mr. Obid, and those who came from other departments.
Thakns for share a lot of knowledge.
5. The author thanks goes to, Chotitah, Syarief, Adit, “mbak Fitri”, also my
thanks goes to my friends Nuril El- Magfiroh, Caesar KD, Qorie A’yuna,
Eny Nurul for the beneficial advices and supports during my study. For all
friends graduate 2009 in International Relations department; my regards
for our best family moments.: and all those who have helped the authors of
viii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Cover Sheet/ Inner Cover……….……….i
Endorsement Sheet……….………..ii
Thesis Approval Sheet………..………iii
Thesis Official Report...iv
Originality Pronouncement Sheet..……….………..v
Preface……….…………..vi
Acknowledgements and Mottos………..…….………viii
Abstract……….ix
Table of Contents………..………xi
CHAPTER 1 Introduction ... 1
1.1 Back ground ... 1
1.2 Research Question ... 7
1.3 Literatur Review ... 7
1.4 Framework ... 14
1.4.1. Significance ... 14
1.4.2. Framework Theory Decision Making Process ... 14
1.4.2.1. Bureucracy Politic ... 14
1.4.3. Framework political system ... 17
1.4.4. Model of Policy Influencer ... 18
1.4.5 Interest Groups ... 21
1.5. Method of Researchs ... 22
1.5.1 Time Setting. ... 22
1.5.2 Focus of Research ... 23
1.5.3 Data Collection Technique ... 23
1.5.4 Data Analysis Techniques ... 23
1.5.5 Level Analysis of Research ... 24
ix
1.6 Hypotheses ... 25
1.7 Systematics Writing ... 26
CHAPTER II U.S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM ... 28
2.1 American and Persia Relation: When the Goliath Assault “Axis of Evil” ... 28
2.2 How its Threat? ... 30
2.3 AMERICAN RESPONSES ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR ...35
2.3.1 The Bush Administration Responses on Iranian nuclear Program. ... 36
2.3.2 The Obama Administration Responses. ... 41
CHAPTER III AIPAC AND THE US FOREIGN POLICIES ... 58
3.1. AIPAC Delineation ... 58
3.2. Decision Making Process ... 60
3.2.1 Government ... 60
A. Legislative ... 60
B. Executive ... 61
C. Judicative ... 62
3.3. Elite Bureaucracy and Iranian Fobia ... 63
3.4. Non State Actor ... 65
A. Mass Media ... 65
B. Interest Group ... 67
3.5. AIPAC Position in American Foreign Policy Making ... 68
3.6. Money Behind Election... ... .71
3.7. AIPAC Interest... ... 75
CHAPTER IV THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC INFLUENCES ... 79
AIPAC pressure in A Changing US FP ... 81
CHAPTER V CONCLUTION ... 96
Suggestion ... 97
x TABLE
Table 1.1 Review’s Positioning. ... 11
Table 2.1 U.S And IRAN Relations ... 32
Table 2.2 The Timing Sanctions For Iranian Nuclear Program. ... 52
Table 3.1 PAC’s Contribution on election ... 74
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