Analisis Kemampuan Cadangan Umum Aset Produktif Dalam Memprediksi Bank Failure Di Indonesia (Studi Empiris Perbankan Periode 2004-2011)

Kriteria Pengambilan Sampel Lampiran 1/9

No Nama Bank

Kriteria Memenuhi Kondisi

Penjelasan

1 2 F NF Tidak

F/NF

A. BANK PERSERO

1. PT. Bank Mandiri - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian.

2. PT. Bank Negara Indonesia - - - _√ -

3. PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia - - - _√ -

4. PT. Bank Tabungan Negara - _{√ √} - -

5. PT. Bank Ekspor Indonesia _√ - _√ - -

B. BUSN DEVISA

6. PT. Bank Antar Daerah - _{√ √} - -

7. PT. Bank Arta Graha - _{√ √} - -

8. PT. Bank Arta Graha Internasional - _{√ √} - -

9. PT. Bank Arta Niaga - - - _√ -

10. PT. Bank Buana - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

11. PT. Bank Internasional Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

12. PT. Bank of India - - - _√ -

13. PT. Bank Central Asia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian

14. PT. Bank CIC Internasional - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian

15. PT. Bank BRI Agroniaga - _{√ √} - -

16. PT. Bank Bukopin - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian

17. PT. Bank Bumi Artha - - - _√ -

18. PT. Bank Bumi Putera Indonesia - - - Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

19. PT. Bank Capital Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

20. PT. Bank Century _√ - _√ - -

21. PT. Bank Dagang Bali _√ - _√ - -

24. PT. Bank Ekonomi Rahardja - - - _√ -

25. PT. Bank Ganesha - _{√ √} - -

26. PT. Bank Hagakita - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

27. PT. Bank HAGA - - - _√ -

28. PT. Bank Hana - - - _√ -

29. PT. Bank Halim Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

30. PT. Bank Himpunan Saudara - _{√ √} - -

31. PT. Bank ICB Bumiputera - - - _√ - Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

32. PT. Bank Index Selindo - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

33. PT. Lippo Bank - _{√ √} - -

34. PT. Bank Mayapada - - - _√ -

35. PT. Bank Mega - - - _√ -

36. PT. Bank Mestika Dharma - - - _√ -

37. PT. Bank Metro Ekspress - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

38. PT. Bank Mutiara - _{√ √} - -

39. PT. Bank Muamalat Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

40. PT. Bank Niaga - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

41. PT. Bank Nusantara Parahyangan - - - _√ -

42. PT. Bank OCBC NISP - - - _√ -

43. PT. Bank PAN Indonesia - - - _√ -

44. PT. Bank Permata - _{√ √} - -

45. PT. Bank Pikko - - - - _√ Laporan keuangan tidak tersedia

46. PT. Bank QNB Kesawan - _{√ √} - -

47. PT. Bank SBI Indonesia - - - _√ -

48. PT. Bank Sinar Mas - - - _√ -

49. PT. Bank Swadesi - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

50. PT. Bank Syariah Mega - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

51. PT. Bank Syariah Mandiri - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

52. PT. Bank UOB - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

C. BUSN NON DEVISA

54. PT. Bank Andara - _{√ √} - -

55. PT. Bank Anglomas - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

56. PT. Bank Artos - - _√ - -

57. PT. Bank Asiatic _√ - _√ - -

58. PT. Bank Barclays - - - - _√ Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun

sebelumnya

59. PT. Bank Bintang Manunggal - - - - _√ Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun

sebelumnya

60. PT. Bank Bisnis Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

61. PT. BNP Paribas - _{√ √} - -

62. PT. BTPN - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

63. PT. Bank Capital Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

64. PT. Bank Centratama Nasional - - - _√ -

65. PT. Bank DANPAC - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

66. PT. Bank DBS - _{√ √} - -

67. PT. Bank Dinar - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

68. PT. Bank Dippo International - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

69. PT. Bank Eksekutif International - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

70. PT. FAMA International Bank - - - _√ -

71. PT. Bank Global International - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

72. PT. Bank Harda International - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

73. PT. Bank Harmoni International - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

74. PT. Bank INA Perdana - - - _√ -

75. PT. Bank Index Selindo - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

76. PT. Bank Indomonex - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

77. PT. Bank Jasa Arta - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

78. PT. Bank Jasa Jakarta - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

79. PT. Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi - - - _√ -

81. PT. Bank Maspion - - - _√ -

82. PT. Bank Mayora - - - - _√ Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun

sebelumnya

83. PT. Bank Mitraniaga - _{√ √} - -

84. PT. Bank Multiarta - _{√ √} - -

85. PT. Bank Nobu - _{√ √} - -

86. PT. Bank Panin Syariah - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

87. PT. Bank Persyarikatan Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

88. PT. Bank Prima Master - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

89. PT. Bank Pundi - _{√ √} - -

90. PT. Bank Purba Danarta - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

91. PT.Bank Royal Indonesia - - - _√ -

92. PT.Bank Sahabat Sampoerna - - - _√ -

93. PT. Bank Sinar Harapan Bali - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

94. PT. Bank Syariah BRI - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

95. PT. Bank Syariah Bukopin - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

96. PT. Bank Victoria - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

97. PT. Bank Yudha Bakti - _{√ √} - -

98. PT. Bank Tugu

D. Bank Campuran

99. PT. Bank Agris - _{√ √} - -

100. PT. Bank ANZ - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

101. PT. Bank BNP Paribas - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

102. PT. Bank Capital Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

103. PT. Bank China Trust - - - _√ -

104. PT. Bank Commonwealth - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

105. PT. Bank DBS Indonesia - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

106. PT. Bank Finconesia - - - - _√ Tidak tersedia data setahun sebelumnya

Keterangan : *Kriteria 1 = Ditutup secara legal oleh pihak yang berwenang

Kriteria 2 = Mengalami kerugian secara berturut turut selama 3 tahun

108. PT. Maybank - _{√ √} - -

109. PT. Mizuho Bank - - - - _√ Tidak tersedia data setahun sebelumnya

110. PT. Bank Multicor - - - _√ -

111. PT. Bank OCBC - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

112. PT. Bank Pacific - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

113. PT. Rabobank Duta - _{√ √} - -

114. PT. Rabobank International - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

115. PT. Bank Resona Perdania - - - _√ -

116. PT. Bank SUMITOMO - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

117. PT. Bank UFJ _√ - _√ - -

118. PT. Bank UOB - - - - _√ Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut

119. PT. Woori Bank - - - _√ -

E. Bank Asing

120. American Ekspress Bank - _{√ √} - - Tidak tersedianya laporan keuangan yang

dibutuhkan

Daftar Sampel yang Menjadi Objek Penelitian Lampiran 2/9 Kondisi Bank

Failure (F) Non Failure (NF)

No Nama Bank Total Aset No Nama Bank Total Aset

A. Bank Persero

1. PT. Bank Tabungan Negara 26.805.829 1. PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia 94.709.726

2. PT. Bank Ekspor Indonesia 11.191.257 2. PT. Bank Negara Indonesia 200.390.507

B. BUSN DEVISA

3. PT. Bank Antar Daerah 632.935 3. PT. Bank BTPN 4.483.323

4. PT. Bank Arta Graha Internasional 454.559 5. PT. Bank Ekonomi Rahardja 8.246.634

5. PT. BRI Agroniaga 2.551.446 6. PT. Bank HAGA 2.948.485

6. PT. Bank Century 13.796.376 7. PT. Bank OCBC 28.969.069

7. PT. Bank Dagang Bali 2.085.000 8. PT. Bank Mestika Dharma 2.373.156

8. PT. Bank Ganesha 802.112 9. PT. Bank Woori 1.773.316

9. PT. Bank Himpunan Saudara 413.476 10. PT. Bank Resona Perdania 3.319.911

10. PT. Bank Lippo 26.466.353 11.. PT. Bank Bukopin 17.557.864

11. PT. Bank Mutiara 9.122.740 12. PT. Bank Mega 13.859.900

12. PT. Bank Permata 28.868.580 13. PT. PAN Indonesia 18.873.993

13. PT. QNB Kesawan 1.247.916 14. PT. Bank Bumi Artha 1.325.314

14. PT. Bank Windu Kentjana 251.925 15. PT. Bank SBI Indonesia 308.257

C. BUSN NON DEVISA

16. PT. BNP Paribas 593.165 17. PT. Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi 379.641

17. PT. Bank INA Perdana 139.827 18. PT. Bank ARTOS 166.774

18. PT. Bank Mitra Niaga 215.766 19. PT. Bank FAMA International 216.063

19. PT. NOBU 30.038 20. PT. Royal Bank 64.102

20. PT. Bank Pundi 1.493.537 21. PT. Bank Yudha Bakti 1.325.303

21. PT. Bank Asiatic 1.853.257 22. PT. Bank Maspion 1.731.799

D. Bank Campuran

22. PT. Bank Agris 1.058.573 23. China Trust 2.463.629

23. PT. Bank UFJ 2.687.909 24. PT. Woori Bank 2.553.507

24. PT. Rabobank Duta 2.948.485 25. PT. Resona Perdania 3.319.911

Nilai Variabel Bebas dan Variabel Indikator yang Digunakan pada Penelitian Lampiran 3/9 Bank dengan Kondisi Failure

NO NAMA BANK STATUS CUAP TOTAL MODAL MODAL INTI PPAP TOTAL ASET TOTAL KREDIT

CADANGAN

LAINNYA ROA

1 BBA 1 1 0,032890 0,016445 0,016453 0,346236 0,235799 0,021261 0,008000

2 BBAD 1 1 0,067044 0,042546 0,007329 0,632935 0,350196 0,021273 0,040200

3 BBAGI 1 0 0,075330 0,074739 0,119009 0,454559 0,848273 0,000000 0,008500

4 BBAGR 1 0 0,210699 0,202754 0,094482 1,091768 0,809214 0,000000 -0,010000

5 BBAST 1 1 0,175744 0,159169 0,016585 1,722529 0,966766 0,000000 0,018000

6 BBC 1 1 1,998286 1,762888 0,060618 34,454813 18,680346 0,047200 0,006100

7 BBDB 1 0 0,121466 0,084620 0,017493 1,853257 0,348552 0,000000 0,020100

8 BBEI 1 0 4,111004 0,402564 0,165836 10,292037 6,387901 0,000000 0,016200

9 BBG 1 0 0,080653 0,070065 0,008028 0,802112 0,471024 0,004196 0,064500

10 BBHS 1 1 0,030508 0,026907 0,005795 0,410701 0,324675 0,000000 0,016200

11 BBIP 1 0 0,021246 0,019668 0,000942 0,139827 0,049609 0,000000 0,032400

12 BBLl 1 0 1,406220 0,703110 0,831338 26,466353 4,746032 0,597952 0,029200

13 BBMI 1 0 0,160823 0,159088 0,007816 0,342112 0,097930 0,000000 0,073800

14 BBMN 1 1 0,017945 0,016353 0,001867 0,215766 0,125261 0,000000 0,054700

15 BBMTR 1 0 0,613558 0,487932 0,321933 9,122740 2,281876 0,079241 0,030000

16 BBNN 1 0 0,011912 0,011773 0,000072 0,030038 0,005655 0,000000 0,013500

17 BBNPP 1 0 0,209608 0,145123 0,216535 0,593165 0,622321 0,058975 0,010600

18 BBP 1 0 1,338120 0,998683 0,741127 28,868580 9,607309 0,193918 0,010000

19 BBPUNDI 1 1 0,149724 0,149582 0,034341 1,493537 1,139628 0,002780 0,010000

20 BBQNB 1 1 0,094290 0,074387 0,012503 1,247916 0,502142 0,015477 0,030000

21 BBRIA 1 1 0,215522 0,156039 0,189243 1,337961 1,036715 0,049708 -0,010000

22 BBTN 1 0 0,799368 0,673337 0,559117 26,805829 11,160966 0,044029 0,073800

Bank dengan Kondisi Non Failure Lampiran 4/9

NO NAMA BANK STATUS CUAP TOTAL MODAL MODAL INTI PPAP TOTAL ASET TOTAL KREDIT CADANGAN

LAIN ROA

1 BBARTOS 0 1 0,025622 0,024469 0,001118 0,166774 0,107964 0,000000 0,027800

2 BBB 0 1 1,132358 0,801113 0,113298 17,557864 12,452611 0,000236 0,026000

3 BBBA 0 1 0,166863 0,163551 0,006315 1,325314 0,315402 0,000003 0,683900

4 BBICB 0 1 0,262992 0,236589 0,023592 3,254898 2,528880 0,000000 0,010000

5 BBD 0 0 13,857403 9,769437 1,404586 86,617017 43,852551 3,340714 0,013100

6 BBER 0 1 0,377697 0,339115 0,054835 8,246634 2,956011 0,000000 0,029900

7 BBFI 0 0 0,030081 0,027669 0,004402 0,216063 0,166561 0,000000 -0,014800

8 BBKE 0 1 0,081253 0,078761 0,009840 0,379641 0,311323 0,000000 0,019000

9 BBTPN 0 1 0,721577 0,690631 0,079444 4,483323 3,232817 0,000000 0,040000

10 BBMD 0 0 0,466528 0,441278 0,036875 2,373156 1,722384 0,000000 0,025200

11 BBMG 0 1 1,053807 0,869247 0,076810 13,859900 6,375241 0,000115 -0,078500

12 BBMLTCR 0 0 0,146210 0,288592 0,013135 0,665401 0,322410 0,000000 0,021000

13 BBMMLTI 0 1 0,023856 0,022066 0,002955 0,332917 0,332917 0,000000 0,015000

14 BBMSP 0 1 0,125762 0,116984 0,011346 1,731799 0,796840 0,000000 0,051800

15 BBNI 0 0 17,768619 12,788511 3,383830 182,007749 63,439833 3,762160 0,017900

16 BBPI 0 1 4,884825 2,758982 0,956452 18,873999 8,534010 2,019771 0,027500

17 BBR 0 0 0,018834 0,018693 0,000406 0,064102 0,002427 0,000000 0,023800

18 BBRI 0 1 9,645651 7,531596 2,130519 94,709726 47,523002 2,172821 0,009800

19 BBRP 0 1 0,690061 0,661795 0,225111 3,319911 2,475434 0,000000 0,075000

20 BBSUMI 0 1 1,567207 1,116299 0,534501 5,526064 3,077634 0,421250 0,020000

21 BBW 0 1 0,804177 0,531527 0,056311 1,773316 0,771216 0,261175 0,014000

22 BBYB 0 0 0,130491 0,096565 0,016679 1,325303 0,707963 0,024786 0,030000

ANALISIS DESKRIPTIF Lampiran 5/9

Bank yang Mengalami Kondisi Failure dan Non Failure

Statistics

Cadangan Umum Aset

Produktif

Total Modal Modal Inti PPA Wajib Total Aset Total kredit Cadangan

lainnya

Return on Asset

N Valid 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Missing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mean ,39 ,51075133 ,27327047 ,12885109 6,47724765 2,61169318 ,04939174 ,024622

Std. Error of Mean ,104 ,198263575 ,087602817 ,050689745 2,300992678 ,976812687 ,026547191 ,0048620

Median ,00 ,12146600 ,08462000 ,00802800 1,09176800 ,50214200 ,00278000 ,018000

Std. Deviation ,499 ,950838703 ,420128351 ,243099475 11,035173222 4,684629076 ,127315853 ,0233176

Skewness ,477 2,888 2,468 2,176 1,716 2,415 4,017 ,876

Std. Error of Skewness ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481

Kurtosis -1,951 9,308 6,710 3,761 1,433 5,856 17,249 ,262

Std. Error of Kurtosis ,935 ,935 ,935 ,935 ,935 ,935 ,935 ,935

Statistics

Cadangan Umum Aset

Produktif

Total Modal Modal Inti PPA Wajib Total Aset Total kredit Cadangan

lainnya

Return on

Asset

N Valid 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Missing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mean ,70 2,32023266 1,68731054 ,39668839 19,68736183 8,91427852 ,52187091 ,050322

Std. Error of Mean ,098 1,001709187 ,719720478 ,175759687 9,079529597 3,639491626 ,235643470 ,0294273

Median 1,00 ,16686300 ,28859200 ,03687500 3,25489800 2,47543400 ,00000000 ,023800

Std. Deviation ,470 4,804028495 3,451658157 ,842913848 43,543894260 17,45438867

1

1,130106381 ,1411282

Skewness -,911 2,457 2,468 2,676 2,958 2,382 2,134 4,454

Std. Error of Skewness ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481 ,481

Kurtosis -1,291 5,285 5,261 7,207 8,967 4,663 3,395 20,856

UJI NORMALITAS DATA Lampiran 6/9

One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

Unstandardized Residual

N 46

Normal Parametersa,b Mean ,0000000

Std. Deviation ,42635190

Most Extreme Differences

Absolute ,171

Positive ,113

Negative -,171

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z 1,161

Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) ,135

a. Test distribution is Normal.

Uji Beda Rata Rata Variabel yang Digunakan Lampiran 7/9

Independent Samples Test

Levene's Test for

Equality of

Variances

t-test for Equality of Means

F Sig. T df Sig.

(2-tailed)

Mean

Difference

Std. Error

Difference

95% Confidence Interval of the

Difference

Lower Upper

Cadangan Umum Aset

Produktif

Equal variances assumed 1,411 ,241 2,128 44 ,039 ,304 ,143 ,016 ,593

Equal variances not assumed 2,128 43,848 ,039 ,304 ,143 ,016 ,593

Total Modal Equal variances assumed 11,903 ,001 1,836 44 ,073 1,863357739 1,015140119 -,182522741 3,909238219

Equal variances not assumed 1,836 23,727 ,079 1,863357739 1,015140119 -,233067161 3,959782639

Modal Inti Equal variances assumed 13,510 ,001 2,036 44 ,048 1,464673913 ,719507171 ,014602491 2,914745335

Equal variances not assumed 2,036 22,650 ,054 1,464673913 ,719507171 -,025015322 2,954363149

PPA Wajib Equal variances assumed 8,284 ,006 1,386 44 ,173 ,252743913 ,182360077 -,114778672 ,620266499

Equal variances not assumed 1,386 25,611 ,178 ,252743913 ,182360077 -,122379617 ,627867443

Total Aset Equal variances assumed 6,159 ,017 1,410 44 ,165 13,210114174 9,366558867 -5,666944852 32,087173199

Equal variances not assumed 1,410 24,814 ,171 13,210114174 9,366558867 -6,087998072 32,508226420

Total kredit Equal variances assumed 8,658 ,005 1,664 44 ,103 6,267437304 3,767353874 -1,325165535 13,860040144

Equal variances not assumed 1,664 25,130 ,109 6,267437304 3,767353874 -1,489539857 14,024414466

Cadangan lainnya Equal variances assumed 20,186 ,000 1,992 44 ,053 ,472479174 ,237134135 -,005433273 ,950391621

Equal variances not assumed 1,992 22,558 ,059 ,472479174 ,237134135 -,018602130 ,963560478

Return on Asset

Equal variances assumed 2,356 ,132 ,862 44 ,394 ,0257000 ,0298262 -,0344108 ,0858108

Logistic Regression Lampiran 8/9

Case Processing Summary

Unweighted Casesa N Percent

Selected Cases

Included in Analysis 46 100,0

Missing Cases 0 ,0

Total 46 100,0

Unselected Cases 0 ,0

Total 46 100,0

a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number

of cases.

a. Constant is included in the model.

b. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770

c. Estimation terminated at iteration number 1

because parameter estimates changed by less than

,001.

a. Method: Enter

b. Constant is included in the model.

c. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770

d. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter

estimates changed by less than ,001.

Model Summary

a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because

Lampiran 9/9

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Status Kegagalan

Bank = Tidak Gagal

Status Kegagalan Bank = Gagal

Total

Observed Expected Observed Expected

Step 1

Variables in the Equation

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp

a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: X1, X3.

Classification Tablea

Observed Predicted

Status Kegagalan Bank Percentage

Correct

Status Kegagalan Bank

Tidak

Gagal

18 5 78,3

Gagal 9 14 60,9

Overall Percentage 69,6

a. The cut value is ,500

Variables not in the Equation

Score df Sig.

Step 0

Variables X1 4,293 1 ,038

X3 3,959 1 ,047