Market Review
IHSG (+0.01%) kembali ditutup menguat tipis 0.90 diakhir sesi perdagangan kelevel 6420.02 dengan iringan aksi jual investor asing yang kembali membengkak kelevel 963.83 miliar rupiah. Nilai tukar rupiah yang melemah 0.22% kelevel Rp14.090 per USD menjadi trigger negatif dan menjadi alasan investor asing mulai melakukan aksi jual. Sektor Infrastruktur (+1.81%) dan Pertanian (+0.62%) menjadi penopang pergerakan sedangkan Sektor Industri Dasar (-1.08%) dan Aneka Industry (-0.96%) menjadi penekan pergerakan. Rilisnya data penjualan mobil yang negatif dilevel -15.4% dibulan January 2019 dari 3.2% diperiode sebelumnya menjadi katalis negatif untuk perusahaan berbasi Automotif. Investor akan cenderung barhati-hati menanti data aktifitas export import serta neraca perdagangan yang akan rilis menjelang akhir pekan.
Leader:
FREN, HMSP, ISAT, PGAS, TOWR Laggard:
TLKM, BBCA, INKP, ASII, UNVR
Pergerakan IHSG masih membentuk bearish candle meskipun ditutup menguat tipis. Hal tersebut memberikan signal pergerakan yang cenderung terkonsolidasi pada level lower bollinger bands. Spekulasi positif jika IHSG terus kuat diatas 6400 dengan pergerakan bullish kembali menguji 6500. Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada area oversold dengan momentum RSI yang relatif murah memberikan trigger negatif pada perdagangan. Sehingga diperkirakan IHSG berpeluang rebound menguat dengan range pergerakan 6392-6500. Saham-saham yang masih dapat dicermati diantarnya TBLA, LSIP, AALI, TPIA, GGRM, HMSP, KLBF, BBNI, PGAS, INCO.
Ekuitas Jepang dibuka terkoreksi menjelang akhir pekan. Indeks Nikkei (-1.18%) dan TOPIX (-1.09%) terpukul setelah mengalam penguatan optimis sejak awal sesi perdagangan. Seakan memberikan signal kejenuhan pada mayoritas ekutias di Asia. Pelemahan ini disinyalir dari rembetan penurunan ekuitas AS karena kekhawatiran pertumbuhan ekonomi yang muncul kembali kepermukaan setelah Data penjualan ritel AS rilis pada penurunan terburuk dalam sembilan tahun terakhir dan data ekonomi terbesar di Eropa yakni Jerman mengalami stagnansi pada kuartal ke-Empat tahun lalu. Harga minyak WTI (+0.8%) diperdagangankan lebih tinggi menjadi $54.85 perbarrel menyusul optimisme pengurangan produksi global. Hari ini investor akan menanti data akitiftas perdagangan di dalam Negeri dengan ekspektasi masih berada pada zona defisit. Sedangkan data Asia sendiri investor akan terfokus pada data inflasi dan indeks harga produksi di Tiongkok yang sebelumnya mendapat katalis negatif dari data indeks aktifitas sektor manufaktur.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
•
Harga saham rebound pada level
support MA50 dan mencoba break
out level MA20.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi
kembali
melemah
dibawah MA5
•
Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area pada area oversold dengan
potensi berpotensi golden-cross
•
Support
: 1220-1315
•
Resistance
: 1460-1600
•
Stop-loss
: 1380
•
Target Price
: 1600
BUY
LSIP
Analisis
:
•
Candlestick
membentuk
pola
tweezers bottom dengan indikasi
rebound
dan
whipsaw
MA50.
Potensi menguji resistance.
•
Stop-loss jika harga saham break
out support
•
Indikator
Stochastic
berpotensi
membentuk
pola
golden-cross
dengan indicator RSI yang bullish
reversal momentum.
•
Support
: 8200-8650
•
Resistance
: 9125-9600
•
Stop-loss
: 8600
Analisis
:
•
Pergerakan
harga
saham
cenderung
melemah
dan
sudah
cukup
murah.
Indikasi
rebound
jangka pendek.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
•
Indikator stochastic golden-cross
pada
area
oversold
dengan
momentum RSI yang cukup rendah.
•
Support
: 2430-2530
•
Resistance
: 2680-2820
•
Stop-loss
: 2500
•
Target Price
: 2680-2820
BUY ON WEAKNESS
BBTN
Analisis
:
•
Candlestick
membentuk
pola
matching
low
dengan
indikasi
menguat dan whipsaw MA50
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
•
Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan indikasi pola
golden-cross dan RSI yang mulai
terlihat
bullish
reversal
momentum.
•
Support
: 1680-1860
•
Resistance
: 2050-2200
•
Stop-loss
: 1810
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability)
SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability)
W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability)
S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 750 810 870 870 950 Bullish harami cross TB 840 950 AALI 12,750 13,575 13,650 14,350 15,000 Whipsaw MA20 B 13,500 14,350 SSMS 1,050 1,115 1,150 1,180 2,250 Consolidations W 1,100
Basic Indust ry
TKIM 9,325 10,900 11,800 12,350 14,150 Break out MA50 W 11,500 INKP 10,700 11,700 11,975 13,000 14,400 Consolidations W 11,500
CPIN 6,700 7,200 7,325 8,000 8,850 Stoch golden-cross TB 7,200 8,000
Consumer
GGRM 77,000 80,700 83,000 84,500 88,000 Rectangle B 82,500 84,500 HOKI 620 675 675 720 765 Oversold TB 650 720 ICBP 9,800 10,450 10,500 11,400 12,300 Break out MA20 TB 10,400 11,400 UNVR 45,500 47,100 48,875 49,000 51,400 Consolidations PS 48,500
Finance
BBRI 3,550 3,750 3,800 3,940 4,100 Bearish momentum PS 3,800
BBNI 8,200 8,650 8,775 9,100 9,525 Tweezers bottom SB 8,600 9,525 BBCA 25,800 26,800 26,900 28,275 29,750 Consolidations W 26,500
Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 770 850 855 910 990 Break out resistance SB 840 930 PGAS 2,250 2,410 2,460 2,600 2,720 Above the stomach TB 2,400 2,600
Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 300 322 332 340 350 Stoch golden-cross TB 320 350 ASII 7,200 7,500 7,600 7,800 8,100 at support MA200 SB 7,500 8,000
Mining
PTBA 3,630 3,870 4,050 4,170 4,480 Break out MA200 W 4,000
ITMG 19,350 20,500 21,100 22,000 23,000 Oversold TB 21,000 22,200 ADRO 1,215 1,310 1,240 1,400 1,500 Stoch golden-cross TB 1,250 1,400
Propert y
LPCK 2,400 2,650 2,740 2,880 3,000 Stoch dead-cross S 2,600
WSKT 1,680 1,850 1,865 2,070 2,200 Oversold TB 1,840 2,070 PWON 595 625 650 660 700 Whipsaw MA50 SB 620 700
Trading
UNTR 24,000 25,425 25,550 27,000 28,500 Bullish harami confirmations B 25,400 27,000 SCMA 1,600 1,700 1,730 1,800 1,900 Bullish homing pigeon TB 1,710 1,900 LPPF 5,325 6,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Rebounded at MA50 TB 5,800 7,000 ERAA 1,600 1,875 1,950 2,100 2,400 Break out support W 2,000
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, [email protected]
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Friday, 15 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 14/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 14/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,470 1,315 1,530 1,355 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 4,050 4,220 4,320 4,190 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
PTPP.JK 2,370 2,070 2,210 2,320 2,140 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
PWON .JK 650 650 630 690 655 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
RALS.JK 1,855 1,810 1,615 1,855 1,695 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,200 1,205 1,240 1,210 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,730 1,790 1,855 1,760 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,420 2,340 2,210 2,340 2,290 Overbought Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 810 805 835 830 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
SILO.JK 4,150 3,690 3,160 4,150 3,410 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SIMP.JK 530 492 490 520 500 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,540 1,500 1,620 1,555 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 1,995 2,010 1,980 2,040 1,995 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 13,200 12,400 12,200 12,800 12,550 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 990 885 950 990 920 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
SRIL.JK 350 332 336 344 340 Neutral Bullish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,150 1,165 1,190 1,165 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,830 4,500 4,610 4,830 4,600 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 990 870 945 980 880 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,430 1,435 1,270 1,475 1,340 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 13,950 11,800 13,000 13,500 12,375 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Under
TLKM.JK 3,940 3,740 3,780 3,940 3,810 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
TOTL.JK 650 625 610 645 625 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 860 855 760 860 820 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,925 5,625 5,400 5,725 5,550 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,205 1,200 1,225 1,220 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 25,550 25,625 26,400 25,500 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
UN V R.JK 50,050 48,875 48,875 49,825 49,200 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,710 1,835 1,875 1,755 Oversold Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 735 705 580 735 710 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 420 382 384 420 392 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 1,865 1,830 2,050 1,890 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
WTON .JK 505 452 446 505 470 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
Source : Reliance Research
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