Early Warning Early Action

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Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

SEA Climate

Change

Training

SEA Climate

Change

Training

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SEA Climate

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Training

Key objectives of this session

At the end of this activity, the participants are able to:



_{Identify the four key elements of Early Warning and Early}

Action



_{Use weather and climate information on short, medium and}

long timescales for addressing climate risk today



_{Identify early actions National Societies can take in}

programming areas like health, disaster risk reduction and

disaster management



_{Feel confident in enhancing or forming relationships with}

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SEA Climate

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Early Warning, Early Action means

Routinely

taking

humanitarian action

before

a disaster or

health emergency

happens,

making full

use of scientific

information on all

timescales.

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As the climate changes, we can expect

more extreme

weather

events, more often

Photo: NASA

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SEA Climate

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SEA Climate

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Disaster

Response

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SEA Climate

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SEA Climate

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Disaster

Early Action

Early Warning

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Why Early Warning, Early Action?

Extreme events have

implications for health,

livelihoods, water, food

security, and others.

Climate and weather

information can help anticipate

and prepare for changing

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SEA Climate

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The elements of

Early Warning, Early Action

• Knowledge:

Collecting data to

understand risks

• Monitoring:

Collaboration with

hazard monitoring services

• Communication:

Sharing

information about hazards

• Action:

building response

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Risk Knowledge

• Are hazards and

vulnerabilities well

known?

• What are their patterns

and trends?

• Are risks maps and data

available?

Key questions to

consider when

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Monitoring (The trickier side of

Early Warning, Early Action)



_{Hazard monitoring can include, for example, river gauges for}

floods and scientific forecasts for extreme rain or drought



_{Forecasts issued for days, weeks and}

_months

_{in advance}



_{Collaboration with national meteorological service is}

_{a good}

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Communication

• Do warnings reach all of

those at risk?

• Are the risks and the

warnings well understood?

• Is the warning information

clear and usable?

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Early Warning, Early Action means

Using climate and weather information to

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Account for evolving risk and

rising uncertainty

Accommodate multiple timescales

”...we respond

to warnings, not

disasters”

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Early warning, early action

Bridging time scales

Climate change

Rising risks, trends,

more surprises

Seasonal forecasts

Level of risk in coming months

“Regular” forecasts

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Forecast Caveats

(time to take action versus specificity)

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Forecast Caveats

(time to take action versus specificity)

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SEA Climate

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Forecast Caveats

(time to take action versus specificity)

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Long lead-time forecasts

can’t say it all about the future

• Long-term

forecasts are

not precise

. They

can only tell what is

more likely

to happen

over a large area.

• We need to also monitor

shorter-term

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Which forecasts are useful for

humanitarian decisions?

short term?

medium term?

long term?

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Early Action Paid Off:

Example:

Red Cross

volunteers in Ghana

saving lives by alerting

Volta fishermen that the

Bagre dam would be

Faster response:

1-2 days

rather than 40 in 2007

• Fewer victims (

30 instead of hundreds)

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SEA Climate

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you risk

missing

critical information

in the

short term

.

If you

only

monitor the

long term,

…you risk

missing

critical information

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Can we

understand

what the

met office is telling us?

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Defining triggers for

action

that are…

LOW-COST

NO-REGRETS

BENEFICIAL

Not Easy!

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Establishing triggers



Draw on past knowledge of disasters



Establish and document triggers well before

a hazard arrives



Ensure internal support and external partnerships

are in place – especially with the government.



Focus on low-cost, no-regrets, beneficial

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Taking Action, Establishing Triggers



Tailor actions to likelihood of hazard.



Understand and accept the risks of taking action

if a hazard does not materialize.



Understand and accept the risks of

not

taking

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Putting it all together

Examples of Early Warning Early Action

Early Warning:

In 2007, the Bangladesh Red Crescent

received early warning indicators of Cyclone Sidr

approaching their coast.

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Early Warning, Early Action pays off

The case of West Africa



_{Most countries got supplies just days after flooding in 2008.}

(In 2007, flood operations were an estimated 40 days late).



_{Faster arrival of relief saved lives, minimized health impacts,}

protected livelihoods and enabled communities to recover.



_{In 2007 an emergency dam spillage cost 30 lives. In 2008, dam}

release times were scheduled, allowing Red Cross volunteers to

warn communities ahead of time. This time only two lives were lost.



Resources were used more efficiently: 33 per cent less spent per

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Low-cost actions beneficial,

even if floods hadn’t materialized



_{Updating contingency plans}



_{Training of trainers and increase of volunteer capacity}



_{Paperwork for border crossing and health insurance handled in}

advance for relief teams



_{Relief items strategically placed in three regional warehouses,}

(instead of depending on supplies from Dubai)



Shorter-term early warning systems established and checked



_{Relationships formed with forecasting agencies, so the Red}

Cross Red Crescent received timely warnings

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SEA Climate

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Early Warning Action Scenario

Exercise Objectives

On completion this exercise, participants will have

and understanding of:



_{Using weather and climate information on different}

time-scales act before disaster happen



How long term climate trends can be addressed

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SEA Climate

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Early Warning/Early Action

Exercise

Group 1: Floods

Group 3: Cyclones

Group 2: Drought

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Early warning is

a chain of people linked

to

a chain of

actions

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Key Messages

• As the climate changes we can expect more frequent, and more

extreme weather events. It is becoming increasingly important

that we monitor, so we can take action. Extreme events have a

range of implications for health, livelihoods, water and food

security.

• We can anticipate and prepare for these by preparing

climate and weather information!

• We have to work closely with national meteorological offices for

access and interpretation support. Partnerships in this respect

are crucial.