Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer
mengalami penurunan 15% pada 2017 dibandingkan dengan kenaikan
55% pada 2016. Divisi pakan ternak sebagai kontributor terbesar terhadap
total penjualan mengalami kontraksi
EBIT margin dari 13,4% pada 2016
menjadi 9,7% pada 2017.
Kontraksi Margin
Tahun 2016 merupakan tahun istimewa
di mana kondisi pasar dengan
harga komoditas agri yang murah menyebabkan EBIT margin
divisi pakan
ternak berada pada posisi 13,4%.
Rata
-
rata
EBIT margin
divisi pakan
ternak sepanjang 4 tahun terakhir adalah sebesar 11,4%
. Pada 2017 EBIT
margin turun ke level 9,7% akibat tingginya harga jagung domestik.
Potensi Keuntungan dari Divisi Broiler
Kami berharap kebijakan pemerintah yang menetapkan harga jual
terendah untuk ayam broiler dapat memberikan
margin keuntungan yang
lebih stabil
. Kami mengamati bahwa pada 2017, hanya dua dari 12 bulan
di mana harga broiler berada di atas harga acuan terendah dari
pemerintah.
Target Harga Rp1.820
Asia Pacific Poultry
Sekilas tentang JPFA
JPFA merupakan salah satu perusahaan agri
-
food terbesar dan terkemuka di tanah air,
dan penghasil protein hewani berkualitas dan terpercaya yang dengan setia melayani
kebutuhan serta menjadi kebanggaan Indonesia sejak 1975.
Kunci kesuksesan JPFA berakar dari konsep layanan terpadu, lengkap, dan menyeluruh
yang diberikan kepada seluruh pelanggan JPFA melalui kekuatan jaringan distribusi, dan
keagenan yang tersebar di seluruh wilayah Indonesia.
JPFA senantiasa menciptakan dan memberikan nilai
-
nilai tambah kepada mitra industri
melalui kekuatan rantai produksi dari formulasi pakan ternak berkualitas, bibit ternak
unggul, peternakan ayam broiler, ikan, udang, dan sapi potong hingga produk
-
produk
makanan olahan yang menyeluruh dan terintegrasi.
Daya Saing JPFA di Asia Pasifik
Dengan total aset di atas USD1 miliar, JPFA memiliki potensi pertumbuhan laba yang
paling tinggi dengan P/E yang paling murah hanya sebesar 10,6x. Dua kekuatan tersebut
membuat JPFA menjadi pilihan yang paling atraktif di Asia Pasifik.
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Company
Market
Cap
(USD mn)
Total Asset
(USD mn)
Net Profit
Growth
Net Profit
Margin
ROE
P/E
P/BV
Dividend
Yield
JPFA
1,275
1,552
62.3%
4.8%
15.5%
10.6x
1.5x
1.6%
CHUYING AGRO
-
PASTORA GROUP
-
A
1,934
2,439
-
1.2%
14.3%
15.3%
16.3x
2.2x
1.7%
TECON BIOLOGY CO LTD
-
A
1,188
647
11.6%
8.9%
14.6%
18.9x
2.6x
1.3%
BAIYANG INVESTMENT GROUP
-
A
671
276
32.8%
2.9%
5.0%
42.9x
2.0x
0.5%
NEW HOPE LIUHE CO LTD
-
A
4,994
5,387
-
10.0%
4.1%
11.2%
13.8x
1.5x
6.7%
JUEWEI FOOD CO LTD
-
A
2,152
283
26.4%
11.7%
28.7%
31.3x
8.2x
1.0%
Source: Company, NHKS research
Feed Division Metric | 2013
-
2017
Source: Company, NHKS research
Sales Growth | 2013
-
2017
Source: Company, NHKS research
Feed Division EBIT Margin | 2016
-
2017
Source: Company, NHKS research
Feed Division Sales Growth | 2016
-
2017
Source: Company, NHKS research
Sales Trend | 2014
-
2018
Source: Company, NHKS research
Sales Breakdown | FY2017
Multiple Valuation
Forward EV/EBITDA Band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research
Dynamic Forward EV/EBITDA Band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update
Target Price Revision
Date
Rating
Target Price
Last Price
Consensus
vs Last Price
vs Consensus
03/15/2017
Buy
2,240 (Dec 2017)
1,595
2,029
+40.4%
+10.4%
06/22/2017
Buy
1,860 (Dec 2017)
1,350
1,532
+37.8%
+21.4%
08/10/2017
Buy
1,710 (Dec 2017)
1,110
1,489
+54.1%
+14.8%
11/10/2017
Buy
1,740 (Dec 2018)
1,275
1,628
+36.5%
+6.9%
01/25/2018
Buy
1,820 (Dec 2018)
1,460
1,649
+24.7%
+10.4%
03/28/2018
Buy
1,820 (Dec 2018)
1,460
1,715
+24.7%
+6.1%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Closing and Target Price
Source: NHKS research
Analyst Coverage Rating
Source: Bloomberg
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1.
Period: End of year target price
2.
Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy
: Greater than +15%
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees, and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom.
in IDR Bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 11.3% 4.9% 7.3% 8.2%
Sales 27,063 29,603 33,793 38,625 Ca s h Di vi dend IDR bn) 160 570 275 447
Growth (% y/y) 8.2% 9.4% 14.2% 14.3% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 1.0% 3.8% 1.7% 2.7%
Cost of Revenue (21,584) (24,572) (27,901) (31,813) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 34.1% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6%
Gross Profit 5,479 5,031 5,892 6,812 DER 62.6% 62.0% 54.5% 41.3%
Gross Margin 20.2% 17.0% 17.4% 17.6% Net Gea ri ng 91.0% 89.7% 74.8% 54.3% Opera ti ng Expens es (2,558) (2,781) (3,303) (3,775) LT Debt to Equi ty 38.5% 53.8% 39.7% 35.0%
EBIT 2,921 2,250 2,589 3,036 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 38.5% 38.3% 35.3% 29.2%
EBIT Margin 10.8% 7.6% 7.7% 7.9% Equi ty Ra ti o 48.7% 46.4% 48.1% 52.0%
Depreci a ti on 642 772 835 1,008 Debt Ra ti o 30.5% 28.8% 26.2% 21.5%
EBITDA 3,563 3,022 3,424 4,044 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 221.7% 200.9% 201.5% 194.8%
EBITDA Margin 13.2% 10.2% 10.1% 10.5% Current Ra ti o 213.0% 234.6% 199.2% 212.3%
