Market Review
Pada pergerakan akhir pekan lalu. IHSG (+0.38%) menguat 24.38 poin kelevel 6448.16 dengan Aksi beli investor asing yang terus terasa sejak awal tahun. Investor asing tercatat net buy 928.25 Miliar rupiah dimana Saham BBCA, ASII, BBRI dan TLKM yang menjadi top net buy value investor asing. Indeks LQ45 dan IDX30 mengalami rebalancing dimana 4 saham baru masuk pada Indeks LQ45 dan 2 saham baru masuk pada Indeks IDX30. Saham CPIN, ERAA, PWON dan TKIM masuk menggantikan saham BJBR, BKSL, LPKR dan SSMS di Indeks LQ45 sedangkan saham CPIN dan ITMG masuk menggantikan saham BSDE dan WSBP di IDX30.
Leader:
BBCA, ASII, TLKM, BBNI, TOWR Laggard:
HMSP, CPIN, INKP, TPIA, BYAN
Secara teknikal IHSG membentuk pola hanging man dengan indikasi terkoreksi jangka pendek cukup kuat. Support Moving Average 5 hari akan menjadi support konfirmasi pelemahan jika IHSG break out level tersebut yang berada pada kisaran 6400. Indikator Stochastic dead-cross pada area overbought dengan kondisi momentum secara indikator RSI yang terlihat cukup mahal di level 86 oscillator. sehingga diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak cenderung tertekan diawarnai aksi profit taking dengan support resistance 6400-6480. Ekuitas Asia membuka pekan dengan penguatan. Indeks Nikkei (+0.74%), TOPIX (+0.85%) dan KOSPI (+0.22%) gap up optimis. Indeks saham Berjangka di Hongkong dibuka lebih tinggi memberikan signal optimis pada perdagangan bursa saham Asia diawal pekan ini. Tanda terbaru muncul dari tensi perdagangan AS-China yang dimana kedua belah pihak sangat menginginkan kesepakatan. China menawarkan jalan untuk menghilangkan ketidakseimbangan perdagangannya dengan meningkatkan pembelian barang-barang buatan AS. Harga minyak WTI (-0.8%) tergelincir kelevel $53.39 perbarrel setelah mengalami minggu optimis pasca stok persediaan minyak di AS menurun cukup signifikan.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
• Pola pergerakan saham
membentuk pola Flag pattern dengan indikasi melanjutkan trend penguatan jika berhasil break out upper bound.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out MA20 • Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan pola golden-cross.
• Support : 1215-1310
• Resistance : 1455-1560
• Stop-loss : 1300
• Target Price : 1455
SPECULATIVE BUY
LSIP
Analisis
:
• Pergerakan harga saham telah
menjenuh meskipun masih
memiliki target resistance hingga kisaran level 14000
• Stop-loss jika harga saham break out MA5
• Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada area jenuh beli dengan pola dead-cross.
• Support : 10900-12350
• Resistance : 14100-16000
• Stop-loss : 12175
• Target Price : 14000
SELL ON STRENGTH
Analisis
:
• Pola pergerakan membentuk rectangle dengan indikasi menguat jika break out upper bound dan bearish trend line.
• Stop-loss jika harga terkonfirmasi break out support MA5
• Indikator stochastic bergerak bearish mendekati level oversold dengan RSI yang terlihat rebound meskipun terbatas pada oscillator cukup tinggi
• Support : 20550-21850
• Resistance : 23000-24700
• Stop-loss : 21750
• Target Price : 24900
SPECULATIVE BUY
ITMG
Analisis
:
• Pergerakan harga saham menguat optimis. Setelah berhasil tutup break out MA50 dan bearish trend. Target penguatan selanjutnya berada dikisaran FR161,8%
• Stop-loss jika harga terkonfirmasi break out support
• Indikator stochastic bergerak terkonsolidasi positif dengan RSI yang cenderung mahal
• Support : 1945-2130
• Resistance : 2320-2510
• Stop-loss : 2100
• Target Price : 2410
SELL ON STRENGTH
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability) SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability) W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability) S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 800 870 895 950 1,020 Consolidations W 860 AALI 11,450 12,000 12,100 12,750 13,575 Double top PS 12,100
SSMS 1,115 1,180 1,205 1,255 1,340 Consolidations TB 1,200 1,280 Basic Indust ry
TKIM 10,850 12,350 12,875 14,150 16,100 Overbought H 12,350 14,150 INKP 10,750 11,700 12,300 13,000 14,400 Consolidations H 12,500 13,000 CPIN 7,200 8,000 8,250 8,850 10,000 Bearish harami PS 8,200
Consumer
GGRM 77,000 80,700 83,900 84,500 88,000 Overbought H 83,000 84,500 HOKI 675 720 730 765 830 Break out support W 710
ICBP 9,425 9,800 10,150 10,250 10,800 Stoch golden-cross SB 10,000 10,800 UNVR 47,100 49,000 48,925 51,400 54,000 Consolidations PS 48,500
Finance
BBRI 3,550 3,750 3,820 3,940 4,210 Bearish meeting line PS 3,800 BBNI 8,650 9,100 9,400 9,525 10,000 Hanging man PS 9,200
BBCA 25,800 26,800 27,125 28,000 29,750 Break out resistance H 26,700 28,000 Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 660 700 730 770 850 Consolidations H 690 770 PGAS 2,150 2,250 2,430 2,440 2,600 Overbought H 2,400 2,440 Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 325 340 342 350 374 Consolidations TB 336 374 ASII 7,825 8,400 8,475 9,100 10,000 Wedges formations SB 8,100 8,400 Mining
PTBA 3,850 4,170 4,470 4,480 4,800 Consolidations H 4,200 4,800 ITMG 21,000 22,000 23,100 23,000 24,650 Rectangle H 22,500 24,650 ADRO 1,310 1,400 1,485 1,500 1,575 Consolidations H 1,420 1,575 Propert y
LPCK 1,900 2,030 2,090 2,200 2,370 Bearish momentum PS 2,020
WSKT 1,850 2,070 2,070 2,300 2,400 Consolidations H 2,050 2,300 PWON 625 660 660 700 750 Break out support H 650 700 Trading
UNTR 24,000 25,425 26,925 27,000 28,200 Bullish momentum H 26,500 28,500 SCMA 1,700 1,900 1,945 2,100 2,320 Stoch dead-cross PS 1,920
LPPF 5,325 6,000 6,000 7,000 8,225 Consolidations TB 6,000 7,000 ERAA 1,860 2,110 2,310 2,420 2,820 Break out support TB 2,250 2,420
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, lanjar@reliancesekuritas.com
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Monday, 21 January 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 18/01/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 18/01/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,345 1,265 1,040 1,345 1,215 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,450 4,470 4,260 4,510 4,390 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTPP.JK 2,450 2,390 2,140 2,450 2,250 Overbought Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PWON .JK 650 660 655 680 670 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
RALS.JK 1,615 1,525 1,490 1,605 1,550 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,235 1,205 1,190 1,235 1,210 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SCMA.JK 1,960 1,945 1,895 2,030 1,925 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SGRO.JK 2,440 2,350 2,350 2,430 2,410 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIDO.jk 865 815 840 860 840 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
SILO.JK 3,830 3,390 3,400 3,510 3,430 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Under
SIMP.JK 466 494 480 500 490 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SMBR.JK 1,725 1,650 1,650 1,725 1,675 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 1,985 1,855 1,825 1,900 1,855 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SMGR.JK 11,925 12,700 11,000 12,700 11,675 Overbought Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 1,055 970 765 1,055 1,000 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SRIL.JK 354 342 322 354 344 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,235 1,205 1,190 1,225 1,210 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,980 4,720 3,490 4,980 4,570 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 925 895 880 915 900 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TIN S.JK 890 970 700 990 885 Overbought Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 11,325 12,875 10,850 13,100 12,425 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TLKM.JK 3,790 4,020 3,730 4,020 3,850 Overbought Bearish Neutral Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 570 565 570 590 575 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Under
TOWR.JK 715 730 660 750 690 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,925 5,450 5,475 5,925 5,625 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Upper Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,240 1,210 1,210 1,240 1,225 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 28,375 26,925 25,525 27,825 26,350 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
UN V R.JK 49,850 48,925 46,000 49,850 48,550 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,975 1,900 1,650 1,975 1,875 Neutral Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WOOD.JK 625 585 565 625 590 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 404 394 382 412 390 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSKT.JK 2,050 2,070 1,945 2,140 2,010 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WTON .JK 418 408 402 422 410 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
Source : Reliance Research
T icke r Ind icato r Mo ving Ave rag e
