DRAFT GENERAL PLAN OF ELECTRICITY (RUKN) 2012 -
2031
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES
DIRECTORAT GENERAL OF ELECTRICITY
Jakarta, 7 Februari 2013
PRESENTED BY
:
Hasril Nuzahar
Director of Electricity Program Supervision
on
:
ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat
Legal Basis
Law No. 30 Year 2009 on electricity:
Article 7 : RUKN is prepared based on national energy policy and set by
Government after consulting with Parliament. RUKN prepared together with
local government and further the RUKN becomes base for preparation of
General Plan for Local Government (RUKD)
Government Regulation No. 14 Year 2012 on Power Supply Business Activity :
Article 8: power supply business for public need is carried out in line with
General Plan of Electricity and Power Supply Business Plan (RUPTL), where
RUPTL prepared by power supply business stakeholders that apply for power
supply business license (applicant) must concern on General Plan of Electricity
ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat
Consideration of Changes of RUKN
New regulation that arranges electricity sector (Law No. 30/2009 concerning
electricity, PP. No. 14/2012 on Power Supply Business Activity, PP. No. 42/
2012 on Cross Country Power Trade, and PP No. 62/2012 on Power Supporting
Business Services ).
Progress of development achievement of 10,0000 MW Phase I. .
Progress of the implementation of 10.000 MW Phase II.
The implementation of Masterplan Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia
Economy Development (MP3EI).
Direction for Power Supply Development
Development of power plant capacity in term of :
− To Support MP3EI
− To finish the shortage of power supply
− To increase reserves by mostly using local energy source and also to limit the plan for
development of oil fuel power plant.
Development of power plant for peak load by using gas and PLTA (pump storage or
ordinary type of damp), so fuel oil power plant development is minimized
.
To support other power plants that use new renewable energy, in addition to fulfill power
need, in reducing CO2 emission level by giving interesting investment scheme and more
ocmpetitive selling price of power
Mix Primary Energy Policy for Power Generation
Primary energy source should be used optimally in line with National Energy Policy (KEN)
to guarantee sustainable power supply, and its utilization prioritized from new renewable
energy source
As for deduction of oil fuel dependency, Government guarantees coal supply for power
generation through DMO policy and supports domestic gas use for power plants.
The utilization of new energy source such as nuclear energy is last option after optimizing
the use of renewbale nergy source and other new energy source potency. .
Oil fuel 15.02% Coal 51.08% Gas 22.60% Geotherma l 4.75% Water 6.44% others 0.12% Oil fuel 0.8% coal 62.8% Gas 18.8% Geothermal 11.0% Water 6.5% others 0.1%
2012
2021
Rural Electricity Program Policy and Electrification
Ratio
Handling of social mission meant to hep less fortunate society group, and electrify the
whole area of Indonesia conits of underprevilaged area, remote area, and rural electricity
development .
National electrification ratio targets 80% by the end of 2014, it is expected to become
around 99% by the end of 2020.
75.30 77.65 80.00 83.18 86.37 89.56 92.76 95.98 99.20 99.26 99.33 99.40 99.47 99.54 99.61 99.69 99.76 99.84 99.92 100.00 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
%
ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat
start
Historical Data
(Input)
Regression Analysis
(Model)
stop
Electricity energy Need Prediction
(Output)
Additional Power Need
(MW)
Flow Chart Projection of Power Demand dan
Supply
No.
Uraian
2011 - 2014
2015 - 2031
1.
Economy Growth Assumption
*)
6,4% - 7,0%
8,0%
2.
Inflation Assumption
*)
6,5%
turun menjadi 3,0%
pada tahun 2025
3.
Annual Population Growth
Assumption
**)
- Jawa - Bali
- Out side Jawa - Bali
- Indonesia
rata-rata 1,3 %
rata-rata 2,1 %
rata-rata 1,7 %
4.
Annual Prediction of Electricity
Energy Need growth
- Jawa - Bali
- Out side Jawa - Bali
- Indonesia
rata-rata 8,6 %
rata-rata 13,5 %
rata-rata 10,1 %
*) refers to MP3EI
**) In line with BPS Census 2010
Assumption and Projection of Draft RUKN
2012 - 2031
Projection Result of Draft RUKN 2012 - 2031
System
Description
Unit
2012
2021
2031
Jawa-Bali
Needs
TWh
130
274
621
Peak Load
GW
23
46
102
Additional Power Plants
capacity
GW
5
41
119
Out side of
Jawa-Bali
Needs
TWh
41
115
454
Peak load
GW
8
23
87
Additional Power Plant
capacity
GW
4
26
118
Indonesia
Needs
TWh
171
389
1.075
Peak Load
GW
31
69
189
Additional power plant
capacity
Projection of Jawa – Bali
TWh
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 5 8 11 14 18 22 27 31 36 41 46 52 58 65 72 80 88 97 108 119 Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 30 32 34 37 41 44 48 52 56 60 65 70 75 81 88 95 103 112 122 133
Beban Puncak (GW) 23 24 26 29 31 34 37 40 43 46 50 54 58 63 68 73 79 86 94 102
Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 130 141 153 166 181 197 214 233 253 274 295 319 345 374 405 440 478 521 568 621 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
GW
Additional power need (GW)
Existing capacity (GW)
On going capacity (plan) (GW)
Peak Load (GW)
Electricity energy need
Additional power need per year (20 years)
Average 5.821 MW
Additional power need per year (10 year)
Average 3.827 MW
*) Installed capacity year 2011 experience derating) **) Acumulation
Projection Out of Jawa – Bali
TWh
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 4 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 23 26 30 35 41 47 55 63 74 86 101 118
Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 12 13 14 16 18 20 23 25 29 32 36 40 46 52 59 68 78 90 104 121
Beban Puncak (GW) 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 18 20 23 26 29 33 37 42 48 56 64 74 87
Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 41 45 50 56 63 71 80 91 103 115 130 147 167 190 218 250 289 335 389 454 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
GW
Additional power need per year (20 years)
(20 thn)
rata-rata 5.889 MW
Additional power need per year (10 thn)
rata-rata 2.619 MW
*) Kapasitas terpasang tahun 2011 yang mengalami penurunan kemampuan (derating) **) Akumulasi
*) Kapasitas terpasang tahun 2011 yang mengalami penurunan kemampuan (derating) **) Akumulasi
Additional power need per year (20 thn)
11.710 MW
Average
Additional power need per year (10 thn)
Average 6.447 MW
Projection Indonesia
TWh
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 9 13 18 23 29 36 43 50 59 67 77 87 99 112 126 143 162 183 208 237 Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 32 32 31 30 29 28 28 27 26 26 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 21 20 20 Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 41 45 49 53 58 64 70 77 85 92 101 110 121 133 147 163 181 202 226 254 Beban Puncak (GW) 31 34 37 40 44 48 53 58 64 69 76 83 91 100 110 122 135 150 168 189 Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 171 186 203 223 244 268 294 324 356 389 425 466 512 564 623 690 767 855 957 1,075
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
GW
ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat
Compaarison of Projection Result
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 RUKN 2008-2027 140 153 166 182 198 217 237 260 285 312 342 376 413 454 499 549 605 667 736 813 Draft RUKN 2010-2029 145 157 169 183 198 215 233 253 274 298 325 353 385 419 458 500 546 597 653 716 Draft RUKN 2012-2031 171 186 203 223 244 268 294 324 356 389 425 466 512 564 623 690 767 855 957 1,075 Realisasi Konsumsi 129 134 147 158 171 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
El
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En
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Nee
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(
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)
RUKN 2008-2027 Draft RUKN 2010-2029 Draft RUKN 2012-2031 Realisasi KonsumsiESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat
TWh
Growth (%)
Jenis
BOE
Setara TWh
2012
195
6.9
Batubara
148,356.06
Juta Ton
454,696,488,294
741,756
2013
212
8.5
Gas Bumi
153.38
TSCF
27,547,048
45
2014
231
8.8
Minyak Bumi
7,732.28
Juta Barel
7,732,280,000
12,614
2015
253
9.6
Panas Bumi
29,215.00
Mwe
2,353,215,663
3,839
2016
277
9.6
Air
12,411.20
MW
333,233,273
544
2017
304
9.6
CBM
453.30
TCF
81,412,680
133
2018
333
9.7
2019
366
9.8
2020
402
9.9
2021
438
9.1
2022
479
9.3
2023
524
9.5
2024
575
9.7
2025
633
10.0
2026
698
10.3
2027
773
10.7
2028
858
11.0
2029
955
11.4
2030
1,068
11.8
2031
1,198
12.2
Total
10,769
9.9
465,224,176,958
758,930
Potensi Energi Primer
Tahun
Satuan Asli
Produksi Energi Listrik
Electricity Energy Need vs Primary Energy Potency
*) *)
*) for 20 years and after keep producing power
Year
Year
*) For 20 years and after keep producing power
