TABLE OF CONTENTS. No. Title Media Source Page

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Daily News Update Page 1

Yancoal's Chief Executive Officer (CEO), David Moult, said the decline in annual production was causing supply disruptions across all industrial sectors in Australia at a time of uncertainty in global energy supplies. David said coal production this year was at 31-33 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 35-38 million tons.

"While there may be price volatility, we anticipate coal prices to remain good (high) through the end of the year," David said, quoted by Reuters on Friday (22/7).

A shortage of skilled labor and rising fuel prices have also hit other miners. Iron ore giants BHP and Rio Tinto have warned that labor market tightness will continue into fiscal 2023 and is marked by soaring production costs.

Meski harga mineral hitam ini sempat naik ke level US$ 408,6 per ton pada Kamis (21/7).

Turunnya harga batu bara terjadi di tengah ketatnya pasokan imbas bencana banjir di New South Wales yang menyebabkan produksi di sejumlah tambang di Australia turun. Negeri Kangguru merupakan salah satu pengekpor batu bara terbesar di dunia dengan 390 juta ton pada 2020.

Salah satu penambang batu bara Australia, Yancoal Ltd, memangkas perkiraan produksi mereka di tahun 2022 karena adanya pukulan banjir dan minimnya tenaga kerja akibat serangan Pandemi Covid-19 di tengah krisis energi global imbas konflik Rusia-Ukraina. Mereka memperingatkan akan ada kenaikan biaya akibat lonjakan inflasi.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Yancoal, David Moult, mengatakan susutnya produksi tahunan menimbulkan gangguan pasokan di seluruh sektor industri di Australia di saat adanya ketidakpastian pasokan energi global. David mengatakan produksi batu bara tahun ini berada di 31- 33 juta ton, turun dari perkiraan sebelumnya 35-38 juta ton.

"Meskipun mungkin ada volatilitas harga, kami mengantisipasi harga batu bara tetap baik (tinggi) hingga akhir tahun," kata David, dikutip dari Reuters pada Jumat (22/7).

Kelangkaan tenaga kerja terampil dan kenaikan harga bahan bakar juga memukul penambang lain. Raksasa bijih besi BHP dan Rio Tinto telah memperingatkan bahwa ketatnya pasar tenaga kerja akan berlanjut hingga fiskal 2023 dan ditandai dengan melonjaknya biaya produksi.

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Newcastle Coal Price Developments Last 14 Days (Thursday, 21 July 2022)

On the other hand, China is considering reopening the tap for coal imports from Australia which has been running for the last two years. This is driven by fears that energy supplies will become tighter when the European sanctions on Russia's energy embargo take effect.

China suspended imports of Australian coal in late 2020 after Canberra banned Huawei from building 5G networks and after Australia's then prime minister, Scott Morrison, pushed for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

If China later opens the tap for coal imports from Australia, global coal prices are estimated...

Di sisi lain, Cina tengah mempertimbangkan untuk kembali membuka keran impor batu bara dari Australia yang telah berjalan selama dua tahun terakhir. Hal ini didorong kekhawatiran pasokan energi akan semakin ketat ketika sanksi embargo energi Rusia oleh Eropa mulai berlaku.

Negeri Panda menghentikan impor batu bara Australia pada akhir 2020 setelah Canberra melarang Huawei membangun jaringan 5G dan setelah perdana menteri Australia ketika itu, Scott Morrison, mendorong adanya penyelidikan terkait asal-usul virus corona.

Jika nantinya Cina membuka keran impor batu bara dari Australia, harga batu bara global diperkirakan...

399.7 410

413.8

430

419 426

416.4

406.6 406.6

396.1

399.6

408.6 408.6

Source: investing.com

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global coal prices are estimated to fall even though they are still perched above US$

300 per ton. Energy Watch's Executive Director, Mamit Setiawan, explained that this was because China's energy supply was gradually being met again.

"If it (imports are opened), global coal prices tend to fall even though they are still above US$ 300 per tonne, because the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still going on," said Mamit to Katadata.co.id, Monday (18/7).

Mamit said the price of coal will continue to be above US$ 300 per ton as long as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not subsided. "For example, if this conflict ends next month, it will not immediately restore the economy. It will still take a long time as to whether Russia's infrastructure can still increase its production," said Mamit.

harga batu bara global diperkirakan turun walau masih bertengger di atas US$ 300 per ton. Direktur Eksekutif Energy Watch, Mamit Setiawan, menjelaskan hal tersebut dikarenakan suplai energi Cina secara bertahap sudah kembali terpenuhi.

"Jika itu (impor dibuka), harga batu bara global cenderung turun walau masih di atas US$ 300 per ton, karena konflik Rusia dan Ukraina masih terjadi," kata Mamit kepada Katadata.co.id, Senin (18/7).

Mamit mengatakan, harga batu bara akan terus bertengger di atas US$ 300 per ton selama konflik Rusia dan Ukraina belum mereda. "Misal konflik ini selesai bulan depan juga tidak serta merta langsung memulihkan ekonomi. Masih butuh waktu lama seperti apakah infrastruktur Rusia masih bisa meningktakan produksinya lagi," tukas Mamit.

Saratoga Buys Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA) Shares Rp 1.47 T

Romys Binekasri, CNBC Indonesia

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T SARATOGA Investama Sedaya Tbk (SRTG) purchased 351.26 million shares of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) in several transaction stages.

Citing information disclosure on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Friday (22/7/2022), the date of the share purchase transaction is between July 15 and July 20, 2022. The purpose of the share purchase transaction is for investment.

Saratoga Beli Saham Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA) Rp 1,47 T

Romys Binekasri, CNBC Indonesia

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T SARATOGA Investama Sedaya Tbk (SRTG) melakukan pembelian saham PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) sebanyak 351,26 juta lembar saham dalam beberapa tahapan transaksi.

Mengutip keterbukaan informasi di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Jumat (22/7/2022), tanggal transaksi pembelian saham antara tanggal 15 Juli sampai dengan tanggal 20 Juli 2022. Tujuan transaksi pembelian saham adalah untuk investasi.

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Thus, Saratoga's previous shareholding was 4.071 billion shares, or 16.88%, to 4.42 billion shares, or 18.345%. The purchase price per share starts from Rp 3,350 to Rp 4,200 per share.

In detail, on July 15, 2022, SRTG purchased 174.81 million MDKA shares at a price of Rp 4,200 per share. Furthermore, on July 19, 2022, he purchased 570 thousand shares at a price of Rp. 3,350 to Rp. 3,500 per share.

Finally, on July 20, 2022, there were 175.88 million shares at a price of Rp 3,400 to Rp 4,200 per share.

Thus, the total transaction for the purchase of MDKA shares by Saratoga is Rp 1.47 trillion. (vap/vap)

Sehingga, jumlah kepemilikan saham Saratoga yang sebelumnya 4,071 miliar saham atau setara 16,88% menjadi 4,42 miliar saham atau setara 18,345%. Harga pembelian per saham dimulai dari harga Rp 3.350 sampai dengan Rp 4.200 per saham.

Rinciannya, pada tanggal 15 Juli 2022, SRTG membeli saham MDKA sebanyak 174,81 juta lembar saham di harga Rp 4.200 per saham.

Selanjutnya, pada 19 Juli 2022 membeli sebanyak 570 ribu lembar saham di harga Rp 3.350 hingga Rp 3.500 per saham.

Terakhir, pada tanggal 20 Juli 2022 sebanyak 175,88 juta lembar saham di harga Rp 3.400 hingga Rp 4.200 per saham.

Sehingga, total keseluruhan transaksi pembelian saham MDKA oleh Saratoga adalah senilai Rp 1,47 triliun. (vap/vap)

Government Targets Tin PNBP Revenue to Increase in 2022

Arief Rahman Hakim

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HE MINISTRY of Finance targets an increase in Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) from tin mining. Revenue in the last 5 years has increased from this sector.

Director of Non-Tax State Revenue for Natural Resources and KND at the Ministry of Finance, Kurnia Chairi, said that tin PNBP revenue in Bangka Belitung is influenced by sales volume and price.

2020 revenue decreased as volume decreased, but 2021 revenue increased due to increased volume and prices. 2022 revenue is projected to increase due to rising tin prices.

Pemerintah Targetkan Penerimaan PNBP Timah

Meningkat di 2022

Arief Rahman Hakim

K

EMENTERIAN Keuangan menargetkan peningkatan Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) dari pertambangan timah.

Pendapatan dalam 5 tahun terakhir meng- alami peningkatan dari sektor ini.

Direktur Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak SDA dan KND Kementerian Keuangan, Kurnia Chairi mengatakan penerimaan PNBP timah di Bangka Belitung dipengaruhi volume penjualan dan harga.

Penerimaan 2020 menurun seiring turunnya volume, namun penerimaan 2021 meningkat karena peningkatan volume dan harga.

Penerimaan 2022 diproyeksikan akan meningkat karena meningkatnya harga timah.

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He said the largest Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH) in the last 5 years was obtained by the Babel Provincial Government of Rp 522.57 billion or 22.69 percent.

Furthermore, Bangka Regency amounted to Rp. 367.13 billion or 15.94 percent. The largest DBH revenue was obtained in 2019 with a total DBH of Rp 796.95 billion.

"For this mineral and coal resource, until now mineral and coal natural resources are still the key player (revenue)," he said in the seminar 'Indonesian Tin and State Control', Friday (22/7/2022).

Kurnia Chairi said that with SIMBARA's synergy, the mining sector would be more closely monitored. Simbara is a coal and mineral management information system.

"In the future, the Ministry of Finance can see from upstream and downstream tin mining," he said.

Tin Governance Audit

It is acknowledged that tin mining management still leaves homework to do.

In fact, this is detrimental to the industry and the country.

The Director General of Mineral and Coal at the Ministry of EMR, Ridwan Djamaluddin, said that he would deploy the Financial and Development Supervisory Agency (BKPK). Later, a thorough audit will be conducted on tin governance.

"Our tin governance is not ideal, the government yesterday in a meeting assigned BPKP to conduct an audit of tin governance," he said in the seminar 'Indonesian Tin and State Control', Friday (22/7/2022).

Ridwan said that this step is evidence of the government's presence to pay attention to the tin mining industry. The hope is that it can help resolve a number of problems in the tin mining sector in the future.

Ia mengatakan Penerimaan Dana Bagi Hasil terbesar dalam 5 tahun terakhir diperoleh oleh pemda Provinsi Babel sebesar Rp 522,57 miliar atau sebesar 22,69 persen.

Selanjutnya Kabupaten Bangka sebesar Rp 367,13 miliar atau 15,94 persen. Penerimaan DBH terbesar didapatkan pada tahun 2019 dengan total DBH sebesar Rp 796,95 miliar.

“Untuk sumber daya minerba ini, sampai saat ini memang SDA minerba masih menjadi pemain kuncinya (pendapatan),” kata dia dalam seminar 'Timah Indonesia dan Penguasaan Negara', Jumat (22/7/2022).

Kurnia Chairi mengatakan dengan sinergitas SIMBARA, maka sektor pertambangan lebih terawasi. Simbara merupakan sistem informasi manajemen batu bara dan mineral.

“Ke depan, Kementerian Keuangan bisa melihat dari hulu dan hilir pertambangan timah,” kata dia.

Audit Tata Kelola Timah

Tata kelola pertambangan timah diakui masih menyisakan pekerjaan rumah.

Bahkan, hal ini merugikan industri dan negara.

Direktur Jenderal Mineral dan Batu Bara Kementerian ESDM Ridwan Djamaluddin menyebut akan mengerahkan Badan Pengawas Keuangan dan Pembangunan (BKPK). Nantinya akan dilakukan audit di menyeluruh pada tata kelola timah.

"Tata kelola timah kita belum ideal, pemerintah kemarin dalam raapt menugaskan BPKP untuk melaukukan audit terhadap tata kelola timah," katanya dalam seminar 'Timah Indonesia dan Penguasaan Negara', Jumat (22/7/2022).

Ridwan mengatakan langkah ini jadi buti hadirnya pemerintah untuk memperhatikan industri tambang timah. Harapannya, bisa menmbantu penyelesaian sejumlah masalah yang ada di sektor tambang timah kedepannya.

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"Simply put, in the meeting we also issued a letter of efara per July 1, 2022 for all smelters to report the source of their tin.

This means that this is a form of control that we want to realize in the near future,"

he said.

Monitoring

With the reporting done, it means that there will be monitoring of the distribution flow from upstream to downstream. The government will integrate it with the existing coal and mineral information system (Simbara).

Tin will later be included in the system. It is hoped that the monitoring will be more detailed with the digitization carried out.

In addition, the government was also asked to declare the status of tin as a critical mineral, from the previous strategic mineral. The aim is to give more attention to tin minerals.

"The liberalization of tin governance has had an impact as it is today. On the one hand, the positive side is that private companies have increased, job openings have also increased. However, as in any running business, there are always negative impacts," he said.

Make a loss

Furthermore, Ridwan revealed that there are losses that must be borne by the tin mining management company. This is exacerbated by the rise of illegal mining.

"The government is trying hard to enforce this tin business by preventing the leakage of illegal tin business. Because this illegal issue is detrimental to the state in terms of state revenue. This business is detrimental to official business entities," he said.

"Citing PT Timah's statement, every year it loses Rp. 2.5 trillion due to illegal activities," he added.

"Secara sederhana dalam rapat kami juga mengeluarkan surat efara per 1 Juli 2022 untuk semua smelter harus melaporkan sumber timahnya. Artinya ini adlah bentuk penguasaan yang ingin kita wujudkan dalam waktu dekat," ujarnya.

Pemantauan

Dengan pelaporan yang dilakukan, berarti akan ada pemantauan alur distribusi dari hulu-hilir. Pemerintah akan menginte- grasikannya dengan sistem informasi batu bara dan mineral (Simbara) yang telah dimiliki.

Timah nantinya akan termasuk dalam sistem tersebut. Harapannya, pemantauan akan lebih detail dengan adanya digitali- sasi yang dilakukan.

Selain itu, pemerintah juga diminta untuk menyatakan status timah sebagai mineral kritis, dari sebelumnya mineral strategis.

Tujuannya untuk memberikan perhatian lebih terhadap mineral timah.

"Liberalisasai tata kelola timah ini telah timbulkan dampak saperti saat ini, satu sisi bagus, perusahaan swasta meningkat, pembukaan kerja juga meningkat. Namun, sebagaimana dalam bisnis yang berjalan selalu ada dmapak negatifnya," ungkapnya.

Rugi

Lebih lanjut, Ridwan mengungkap ada kerugian yang harus ditanggung perusahaan pengelola tambang timah. Ini diperparah dengan maraknya tambang ilegal.

"Pemerintah berusaha keras menegakkan pengusahaan timah ini melalui cegah bocornya bisnis timah ilegal. karena isu ilegal ini merugikan negara secara penerimaan negara. bisnis ini merugikan badan usaha resmi," ujarnya.

"Mengutip pernyataan PT Timah, setiap tahun rugi Rp2,5 triliun akibat kegiatan ilegal," tambah dia.

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The impact of illegal mining is allegedly making around 123,000 hectares of mining land critical. If not treated immediately, this will get worse in the future.

"There is a cost that must be paid, and this must be the focus of our attention. From that mapping, I believe that tin has not been replaced by any mineral or metal," he explained.

Dampak dari tambang ilegal disinyalir membuat sekitar 123 ribu hektar lahan tambang menjadi kritis. Jika tak segera ditangani, hal ini bakal menjadi lebih parah kedepannya.

"Ini ada biaya yang harus dikeluarkan, dan inilah yang harus menjafi titik berat perhatian kita. Dimapping itu saya mengamini bahwa timah belum tergantikan keneradaannya dengan mineral atau logam manapun," papar dia.

Nickel Prices Remain Promising, Here's Analyst's View of

Antam's (ANTM) Shares

Parluhutan Situmorang

D

ESPITE the uncertainty due to the global macroeconomic situation, PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) still shows a trend of future financial performance growth.

Performance growth will come from the nickel commodity sales segment.

RHB Sekuritas estimates that the nickel selling price will be in the range of US$

22,000-20,800 per ton this year or higher than last year's realization.

“The world economic situation is indeed facing challenges due to the gas crisis in Europe, rising global interest rates, and negative news from the Chinese property market, becoming negative sentiment in the short term towards the economy.

However, the nickel selling price is predicted to remain positive going forward," wrote RHB Skuritas analyst Andrey Wijaya in a research published in Jakarta, today.

Meanwhile, according to him, concerns about an increase in world nickel supply coming from Indonesia, may not happen, in line with the rapid sales of electric cars.

Harga Nikel Tetap Menjanjikan, Begini Pandangan Analis terhadap Saham Antam (ANTM)

Parluhutan Situmorang

M

ESKI terjadi ketidakpastian akibat situasi makro ekonomi global, PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) masih menunjukkan tren pertumbuhan kinerja keuanga ke depan. Pertumbuhan kinerja akan datang dari segmen penjualan komoditas nikel.

RHB Sekuritas memperkirakan harga jual nikel berada dalam rentang US$ 22.000- 20.800 per ton tahun ini atau lebih tinggi dari realisasi tahun lalu.

“Situasi ekonomi dunia memang sedang menghadapi tangangan akibat krisis gas di Eropa, peningkatan suku bunga global, dan berita negatif dari pasar properti Tiongkok, menjadi sentimen negatif dalam jangka pendek terhadap ekonomi. Namun harga jual nikel diprediksi tetap positif ke depan,” tulis analis RHB Skuritas Andrey Wijaya dalam riset yang diterbitkan di Jakarta, hari ini.

Sedangkan kekhawatiran peningkatan pasokan nikel dunia yang datang dari Indonesia, menurut dia, kemungkinan tidak terjadi, seiring dengan pesatnya penjualan mobil listrik.

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This has the potential to put the nickel market into a deficit in the next 5-10 years, according to Mackenzie's forecast.

Regarding Antam's gold segment business, he said, it would be influenced by the trend of increasing interest rates in a number of countries which could reduce the selling price of gold. Based on the estimate, Antam's average gold selling price is in the range of US$ 1,800/0z this year or shows a 3% decline from last year's realization.

Meanwhile, sales volume is predicted to drop to 900 thousand oz.

This year, RHB Sekuritas estimates the company's net profit will increase to US$

2.91 trillion, compared to last year's Rp 1.78 trillion. Meanwhile, the company's revenue is expected to increase to Rp 40.2 trillion, compared to last year's Rp 38.44 trillion. Editor : Parluhutan

Hal ini berpotensi membuat pasar nikel menjadi defisit dalam 5-10 tahun mendatang, sesuai perkiraan Mackenzie.

Terkait bisnis segmen emas Antam, dia mengatakan, bakal dipengaruhi tren peningkatan suku bungan sejumlah negara yang bisa menekan harga jual emas.

Berdasarkan perkiraan rata-rata harga jual emas Antam berada dalam rentang US$ 1.800/0z tahun ini atau menunjukkan penurunan 3% dari realisasi tahun lalu.

Sedangkan volume penjualan diprediksi turun menjadi 900 ribu oz.

Tahun ini, RHB Sekuritas memperkirakan peningkatan laba bersih perseroan menjadi US$ 2,91 triliun, dibandingkan perolehan tahun lalu Rp 1,78 triliun. Sedang- kan pendapatan perseroan diharapkan meningkat menjadi Rp 40,2 triliun, dibandingkan perolehan tahun lalu Rp 38,44 triliun. Editor : Parluhutan

No wonder Ford is Interested in Cooperation with INCO, Wants

to Produce 2 Million EVs!

Author: Mutiara Nabila

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T VALE Indonesia Tbk (INCO) and China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., cooperated with the world's independent car manufacturer Ford Motor Co. to process nickel ore mined by PT Vale in the Pomalaa Block, Kolaka, Southeast Sulawesi.

Ford Model Vice President, EV Industrialization Lisa Drake said this three- party partnership is a creative way to ensure that the nickel needs of Ford and its millions of Ford electric vehicle customers are met.

Pantas Ford Tertarik Kerja Sama dengan INCO, Mau

Produksi 2 Juta EV!

Author: Mutiara Nabila

P

T VALE Indonesia Tbk (INCO) dan Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd China, bekerja sama dengan produsen mobil dunia Ford Motor Co yang tidak mengikat untuk memproses bijih nikel yang di- tambang oleh PT Vale di Blok Pomalaa, Kolaka, Sulawesi Tenggara.

Wakil Presiden Ford Model, EV Industrialization Lisa Drake mengatakan kerja sama tiga pihak ini menjadi cara yang kreatif untuk memastikan kebutuhan nikel Ford dan jutaan pelanggan kendaraan listrik Ford bisa terpenuhi.

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"This is also in line with what Ford wants to achieve in every process, which is to always be committed to protecting the environment, social and governance (ESG) now and in the future," said Lisa Drake, quoted in an official statement, Friday (22/7/2022).

Ford believes that Vale's partner Huayou has become one of the world's leading producers of Li-ion battery materials.

Huayou has made consistent efforts in carrying out the entire industry range from nickel and cobalt to become cathode battery materials with very low carbon emissions.

"This partnership with Ford and PT Vale will not only ensure a stable and sustainable supply for customers, but will also have a positive impact on the development of the EV industry and the Indonesian economy," said Executive Vice Chairman, George Q. Fang, from Huayou.

Completion of the construction of the Pomalaa HPAL facility and operation is targeted for 2025, which will depend on negotiations and implementation of a definitive agreement.

Ford Motor Co. It is also observed that they are intensively exploring cooperation with various parties to meet the needs of electric vehicle batteries that are being developed.

Most recently, Ford said it had secured enough battery supplies to build more than half a million electric vehicles annually by the end of next year, up from the 27,140 battery-powered electric cars Ford sold in the US last year.

Ford has signed contracts with suppliers representing 60 gigawatt hours of annual battery capacity, enough to build 600,000 EVs per year. Such suppliers include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.

Ltd., or CATL from China.

“Hal ini juga selaras dengan apa yang ingin dicapai Ford dalam setiap prosesnya, yakni senantiasa berkomitmen menjaga ling- kungan, sosial, dan tata kelola (ESG) saat ini dan di masa depan,” ungkap Lisa Drake, dikutip dalam keterangan resmi, Jumat (22/7/2022).

Pihak Ford menilai, mitra Vale, Huayou sduah menjadi salah satu penghasil material baterai Li-ion dunia terdepan. Huayou telah melakukan upaya-upaya yang konsisten dalam menjalankan keseluruhan cakupan industri dari nikel dan kobalt untuk menjadi material baterai katoda dengan emisi karbon sangat rendah.

“Kemitraan bersama Ford dan PT Vale ini tidak hanya akan menjamin suplai yang stabil dan berkelanjutan untuk pelanggan, namun juga akan membawa dampak positif pada perkembangan industri EV dan ekonomi Indonesia," kata Executive Vice Chairman, George Q. Fang, dari Huayou.

Penyelesaian pembangunan fasilitas dan operasi HPAL Pomalaa ditargetkan terwujud pada 2025, yang akan bergantung pada negosiasi dan pelaksanaan kesepakatan definitif.

Ford Motor Co. juga terpantau sedang gencar menjajaki kerja sama dengan berbagai pihak untuk memenuhi kebutuhan baterai kendaraan listrik yang sedang dikembangkan.

Baru-baru ini, Ford mengatakan telah mengamankan pasokan baterai yang cukup untuk membangun lebih dari setengah juta kendaraan listrik setiap tahun pada akhir tahun depan, melonjak dari 27.140 mobil listrik bertenaga baterai yang dijual Ford di AS tahun lalu.

Ford telah menandatangani kontrak dengan pemasok yang mewakili 60 gigawatt jam kapasitas baterai tahunan, cukup untuk membangun 600.000 EV per tahun. Pemasok tersebut termasuk Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., atau CATL asal China.

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Ford also said it had secured 70 percent of the battery capacity needed to build more than 2 million EVs annually from 2026, which helps meet a goal that Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley set in March.

Previously, Ford also had a joint venture with SK Innovation Co. South Korea invested US$11.4 billion to build three battery factories and an EV assembly plant in Tennessee and Kentucky. Editor : Pandu Gumilar

Ford juga mengatakan telah mengamankan 70 persen dari kapasitas baterai yang dibutuhkan untuk membangun lebih dari 2 juta EV setiap tahun mulai 2026, yang membantu memenuhi tujuan yang ditetapkan Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley pada Maret lalu.

Sebelumnya Ford juga telah memiliki usaha patungan dengan SK Innovation Co. Korea Selatan yang menelan investasi US$11,4 miliar untuk membangun tiga pabrik baterai dan pabrik perakitan EV di Tennessee dan Kentucky. Editor : Pandu Gumilar

Can Coal Return to US$ 400/Ton This Week?

Maesaroh, CNBC Indonesia

C

OAL prices rose and rose 4.9% last week.

The market is now waiting to see if coal can break through the psychological level of US$ 400/ton amidst concerns over gas supply in Europe are still high.

In the last trading last week, Friday (22/7/2022), the August contract price on the Newcastle market closed jumping 6.3%

to US$ 399.05/ton. Much better than the previous week which collapsed 8.42%.

In a month the price of coal still rose 1.8%

point-to-point, while in a year it rose 172.1%.

Despite rising 4.9% in a week, coal price movements were quite volatile last week.

The ups and downs of coal prices are caused by market concerns about gas supply in Europe, but on the other hand there are shadows of a recession that could depress commodity prices.

Sanggupkah Batu Bara Kembali ke US$ 400/Ton Pekan Ini?

Maesaroh, CNBC Indonesia

H

ARGA batu bara bangkit dan melesat 4,9% pekan lalu. Pasar kini menunggu apakah batu bara bisa kembali menembus level psikologis US$ 400/ton di tengah masih tingginya kekhawatiran pasokan gas di Eropa.

Pada perdagangan terakhir pekan lalu, Jumat (22/7/2022), harga kontrak Agustus di pasar Newcastle ditutup melompat 6,3%

ke US$ 399,05/ton. Jauh membaik ketimbang pekan sebelumnya yang ambruk 8,42%.

Dalam sebulan harga batu bara masih menguat 1,8% secara point to point sementara dalam setahun melesat 172,1%.

Kendati menguat 4,9% dalam sepekan, pergerakan harga batu bara cukup volatil pekan lalu. Naik turunnya harga batu bara disebabkan oleh kekhawatiran pasar akan pasokan gas di Eropa tetapi di sisi lain ada bayang-bayang resesi yang bisa menekan harga komoditas.

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These two factors are expected to continue to drive coal prices this week. Concerns about gas supply in Europe have not ended even though the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is back in operation.

As is known, the gas network belonging to the Russian company Gazprom has been repaired since July 11 and has been completed according to schedule on Thursday (21/7/2022).

Initially, European countries were worried that Gazprom would deliberately extend the repair process in retaliation for European sanctions against Russia.

However, this concern has not been proven because the pipeline has been operating again even though the gas flow capacity is still 40%.

The flow that has not returned 100% is what triggers concerns that Europe will not be able to meet the target in filling gas supplies before winter.

The European Union is accelerating their gas supply to 80% of capacity until November 1 in anticipation of winter. The current supply has only reached two-thirds due to slow replenishment. To anticipate gas supply shortages, countries in the European region are accelerating coal shipments.

They are also being chased by a deadline to import coal from Russia because the import ban will take effect on August 10.

Reporting from Hellenic Shipping News, the European Union was the fifth largest importer of coal in the world in the first half of 2022. They only lost to India, China, Japan, and South Korea. Their coal imports in the first semester of 2022 reached 57.6 million tons or increased 49.6% compared to the same period last year.

Kedua faktor tersebut diperkirakan masih akan menggerakkan harga batu bara pada pekan ini. Kekhawatiran mengenai pasokan gas di Eropa belum berakhir meskipun jaringan pipa Nord Stream 1 beroperasi kembali.

Seperti diketahui, jaringan gas milik perusahaan Rusia Gazprom tersebut diperbaiki sejak 11 Juli dan sudah selesai sesuai jadwal pada Kamis kemarin (21/7/2022).

Semula, negara-negara Eropa khawatir pihak Gazprom akan sengaja memper- panjang proses perbaikan sebagai balasan atas sanksi Eropa ke Rusia. Namun, kekhawatiran ini belum terbukti karena pipa sudah beroperasi kembali meskipun kapasitas aliran gas masih 40%.

Aliran yang belum kembali 100% inilah yang memicu kekhawatiran jika Eropa tidak akan mampu memenuhi target dalam mengisi pasokan gas sebelum musim dingin.

Uni Eropa tengah mempercepat pasokan gas mereka menjadi 80% dari kapasitas sampai 1 November untuk mengantisipasi musim dingin. Pasokan saat ini baru mencapai dua pertiga karena lambatnya pengisian. Untuk mengantisipasi keku- rangan pasokan gas, negara di kawasan Eropa tengah mempercepat pengiriman batu bara.

Mereka juga dikejar tenggat waktu untuk mengimpor batu bara dari Rusia karena sanksi larangan impor akan berlaku pada 10 Agustus mendatang.

Dilansir dari Hellenic Shipping News, Uni Eropa adalah importir terbesar batu bara kelima di dunia pada semester I-2022.

Mereka hanya kalah dengan India, China, Jepang, dan Korea Selatan. Impor batu bara mereka pada semester I-2022 mencapai 57,6 juta ton atau melesat 49,6% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu.

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"With the global energy market being very tight due to disruptions in the supply of gas and crude oil, dependence on coal is getting bigger. The increase in gas is an incentive to switch to coal," ANZ analysts told Montel News.

"Dengan pasar energi global sudah sangat ketat karena gangguan pasokan gas dan minyak mentah maka ketergantungan kepada batu bara semakin membesar. Kenaikan gas menjadi insentif untuk beralih ke batu bara,"

tutur analis ANZ kepada Montel News.

Source: Oilprice.com • Coal production and coal power generation capacity Reporting from Reuters, coal power

generation capacity is expected to increase this year due to high gas prices. Capacity will be well past the 2021 record.

Last year, electricity production from coal plants reached 20.24 terawatt-hours (TWh), surpassing the previous record recorded in 2018 of 10,098 Twh. However, coal output continues to decline from 8.18- 8.26 billion tons in 2012-2014 to 8.17 billion tons in 2021.

Coal production is also expected to surge this year as China and India boost production. China's coal production reached 2.19 billion tons in January-June 2022, a jump from 1.95 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Dilansir dari Reuters, kapasitas pembangkit listrik batu bara diperkirakan melonjak pada tahun ini karena mahalnya harga gas.

Kapasitas akan jauh melewati catatan 2021.

Pada tahun lalu, produksi listrik dari pembangkit batu bara mencapai 20.24 terawatt- hours (TWh), melampui rekor sebelumnya yang tercatat pada 2018 yakni 10.098 Twh. Namun, output batu bara justru terus turun dari 8,18-8,26 miliar ton pada 2012- 2014 menjadi 8,17 miliar ton pada 2021.

Produksi batu bara juga diperkirakan melonjak pada tahun ini karena China dan India menggenjot produksi. Produksi batu bara China mencapai 2,19 miliar ton pada Januari-Juni 2022, melonjak dibandingkan 1,95 miliar pada periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya.

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India's coal production jumped to 393 million tonnes in January-May 2022 from 349 million in January-May 2021.

However, this increase in production is not expected to be able to keep up with the increase in consumption. This condition makes the economic slowdown less impact on coal prices.

"The prospect of coal prices will continue to rise despite concerns about a recession and an economic slowdown. Coal may weaken but high demand limits the weakness," market participants told Montel News.

The International Energy Agency (EIA) has warned that the world is facing a truly major energy crisis for the first time in history. The coming months will be very challenging times for the development of the crisis. CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM (mae/mae)

Produksi batu bara India melonjak menjadi 393 juta ton pada Januari-Mei 2022 dari 349 juta pada Januari-Mei 2021.

Namun, peningkatan produksi ini diperkirakan belum mampu mengejar peningkatan konsumsi. Kondisi tersebut membuat perlambatan ekonomi kurang berdampak kepada harga batu bara.

"Prospek harga batu bara masih akan naik meskipun ada kekhawatiran soal resesi dan perlambatan ekonomi. Batu bara mungkin akan melemah tetapi permintaan yang tinggi membatasi pelemahan tersebut," tutur pelaku pasar, kepada Montel News.

Badan Energi Internasional (EIA) sudah memberikan peringatan jika dunia tengah dihadapkan pada krisis energi yang benar- benar besar untuk pertama kalinya dalam sejarah. Bulan-bulan mendatang menjadi masa yang sangat menantang bagi perkembangan krisis tersebut. TIM RISET CNBC INDONESIA (mae/mae)

Column: Aluminum producers feel the margin pain as price slumps

Reuters

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LUMINUM producers are facing a hard landing after the bonanza pricing seen in the first half of 2022.

US producer Alcoa reported an average realized price on third-party sales of $3,864 per tonne in the second quarter, compared with $2,753 in the same period of last year. Shareholders will reap the benefits of the revenue boost with a $500 million share buy-back.

Time, however, has already been called on the aluminum party.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month aluminum price has collapsed from an all- time high of $4,073.50 per tonne in March to a current $2,450.00.

Fear of recession is now the dominant theme in industrial metals as surging energy prices translate into manufacturing slowdown.

High power pricing spells particular trouble for aluminum operators, given the energy- intensive nature of the smelting process. The resulting margin squeeze is already taking an increasing toll on production.

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European meltdown

The hardest hit so far has been European smelters.

Western European production of primary aluminum fell by 11.5% to 1.483 million tonnes in the first half of the year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).

Annualized production has fallen below the 3.0 million level for the first time this century.

European smelters find themselves in the eye of the energy storm that has broken since Russia launched what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Alcoa has suspended its 228,000-tonne per year Spanish plant and others are flexing run rates as they navigate super-high power prices.

Montenegro’s smaller Podgorica smelter has also been shuttered with other Eastern European operators such as Romania’s Alro Group ALR.BX and Slovakia’s Slovalco idling capacity.

It’s worth noting that production in the IAI’s Eastern European category, which includes all these countries, was down by just 1.4% in the first half of the year.

The intriguing inference is that Russia’s Rusal may be raising production. Its products have not been sanctioned, although Australia’s ban on exports of alumina to the country has disrupted its raw material supply chain. Rusal has not released production figures for this year.

Alumina hits

European smelter pain is now extending further upstream to alumina refining.

Romania’s Alro Group, which has idled 132,500 tonnes of primary aluminum capacity, is now closing its alumina plant also due to soaring power costs.

Alcoa is reducing output at its San Ciprian refinery in Spain for the same reason. Natural gas costs have risen from around $45 per tonne of alumina produced in early 2021 to more than

$215 in the second quarter of 2022, the company said.

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The plant, which has an annual capacity of 1.5 million tonnes of intermediate product, has reduced output by 15%.

There is no sign of any imminent relief from the power crunch.

The entire forward power price structure in Germany, to take just one example, has moved exponentially higher with spot pricing, posing a structural problem for any smelter without a captive power source.

US smelter powers down

The margin squeeze has spread to the United States.

Century Aluminium is idling its Hawesville smelter for “approximately nine to twelve months” after the power cost to operate the plant “more than tripled the historical average in a very short period”.

Century boasts that its Kentucky facility is the largest North American producer of military- grade aluminum. Hawesville’s special status played an important role in the Trump Administration’s use of Section 232 national security provisions to impose import duties on primary aluminum in 2018.

Tariff protection has not been sufficient to withstand the impact of the energy hit.

Alcoa is also idling one of three lines at its Warrick smelter in Indiana, citing “operational challenges, which stem from workforce shortages in the region”.

Offsetting the impact on regional supply will be the full phased return of Canada’s Kitimat smelter after a protracted strike last year.

But North American aluminum production, down by 4.6% so far this year, is likely to do no more than stabilize around current low levels.

China still powering up

China’s aluminum production is currently rebounding as smelters recover from last year’s aggressive energy efficiency targets, now modified after the resulting rolling power crunch.

The country’s annualized run rate has accelerated by almost four million tonnes to 40.6 million tonnes so far this year.

Here too, though, the margin pressure is on.

The recent precipitous price collapse means that around half of China’s capacity is now operating at a cash cost below the current metal price, according to AZ Global Consulting.

But don’t expect immediate curtailments. China’s smelters have a long history of toughing out periods of low prices with some cushioned by their relationship with regional governments.

A more likely reaction is a slowdown of new capacity coming on line.

There are signs, according to AZ Global, that investors are already growing cautious with projects slated to start this year pushed back until 2023.

Power pinch

The availability of cheap power has always shaped the aluminum smelting landscape, but that reliance on continuous electricity to process alumina into metal is now becoming ever more acute.

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It’s not just the massive short-term impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on all fossil-fuel markets. It’s also about the bigger global drive toward renewable energy, which requires massive changes in grid structure and efficiency, as Chinese smelters found out to their cost in 2021.

The longer-term headache of securing low-priced power in a structurally-challenged energy market isn’t going away.

But right now the energy crisis spreading out of Europe is already acting as a major brake on global aluminum production.

Despite China’s collective ramp-up, global primary metal output was still 0.1% lower year-on- year in the first six months of 2022. (Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Copper set for first weekly gain in 7 weeks as risk appetite returns

By Reuters Staff

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OPPER prices were on track for their first weekly rise in seven weeks on Friday as investors returned to riskier assets following a brutal sell-off.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 1.5% at $7,430.50 a tonne at 1614 GMT, nearly 3.5% higher this week.

But prices of the metal used in power and construction remain down more than 30% from a high in March after last week touching $6,955, the lowest since November 2020.

Industrial metals and global equities tumbled in recent months as inflation surged and central banks began rapid interest rate rises that could tip the world into recession.

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But investors this week dialled back expectations for U.S. rate rises. Global stocks are up for a sixth day and the dollar weakened from 20-year highs, helping dollar-priced metals by making them cheaper for buyers with other currencies.

“Markets are on edge with central banks so hawkish ... but pressure from rising rates should ease at some point,” said WisdomTree analyst Nitesh Shah.

Officials in China, the biggest metals consumer, said again they would stimulate the economy after COVID-19 restrictions caused a sharp slowdown.

Chinese demand should improve, said Shah, predicting price volatility.

“We need to break (above) $7,500 to get bullish,” said a trader in London.

The near-term economic outlook remains grim. Investors expect a 75 basis point U.S. rate rise next week after a 50 basis point rise by the European Central Bank on Thursday.

A euro zone manufacturing downturn is accelerating and factory growth is slowing in the United States, Japan and Australia.

Miner Freeport-McMoRan said copper prices are not high enough to support new mines, which could worsen already tight supply.

But while deficits loom later in the decade, many analysts expect copper supply to rise strongly through 2023.

LME aluminium was 1.9% higher at $2,466 a tonne, zinc rose 1.9% to $2,993, nickel gained 3.4% to $22,200 a tonne, lead was flat at $2,012.50 and tin was up 0.3% at $24,910 a tonne.

All were headed for weekly gains. Reporting by Peter Hobson Additional reporting by Mai Nguyen in Hanoi and Siyi Liu in Beijing; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Elaine Hardcastle and Louise Heavens

BHP inks deal with Ford for nickel supply

Ray Chan

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HP has entered into a memorandum of understanding for nickel supply with leading automaker Ford Motor Company.

The targeted multi-year nickel supply agreement could start as early as 2025 and may involve additional commodities over time.

BHP will explore options to supply Ford Motor Company with nickel from its Nickel West asset in Western Australia, a producer of some of the most sustainable and lowest carbon intensity nickel in the world.

In addition, BHP and Ford Motor Company are exploring ways to make battery supply chains more sustainable and efficient, including opportunities for further alignment on best practice and raising ESG performance transparency.

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BHP chief commercial officer Vandita Pant said BHP produced some of the lowest carbon intensity nickel in the world, and the company was working to reduce GHG emissions from its nickel operations even further.

“Sustainable, reliable production of quality nickel will be essential to meeting demand from automakers like Ford Motor Company who are focused on producing their vehicles in an increasingly sustainable way,” she said.

“We are pleased to announce this arrangement with Ford Motor Company, and more importantly, to collaborate with them on ways to make the battery supply chain more sustainable through our shared focus on end-to-end collaboration, as well as technological and commercial innovation.”

According to third-party analysis, BHP’s Nickel West asset has one of the world’s lowest operational carbon emissions intensities for nickel mining operations and plans to further reduce emissions, making BHP a partner of choice to battery electric vehicles manufacturers across the globe that value sustainability and transparency.

“Demand for nickel in batteries is estimated to grow four-fold over the next decade, in large part to support the world’s rising demand for electric vehicles,” she said.

“While what we produce is essential, never before has how we produce and manage our products through our supply chain been more important. Customers increasingly care about where products come from: their environmental and ethical footprints, as well as the efficiency and transparency of their supply chains.”

Australia's South32 posts 3% rise in metallurgical coal output as Illawarra supports

Contributors: Upasana Singh, Sameer Manekar - Reuters

A

USTRALIAN diversified miner South32 Ltd S32.AX on Monday posted a 3% rise in fourth- quarter metallurgical output as a return to longwall method of mining at its flagship Illawarra project in New South Wales continues to boost output.

However, the miner said production volumes in the fourth-quarter were hurt by adverse weather conditions in New South Wales and COVID-19 related labour disruptions, leading to an 8% drop in its total coal production of 1.6 million tonnes (Mt).

Production of metallurgical coal, used to make steel, rose to 1.38 Mt in the three months to June 30, from 1.34 Mt a year ago, but missing a UBS estimate of 1.57 Mt.

Coal prices have soared this year after sanctions imposed on Russia triggered a supply crunch amid high demand, sending power generators and governments scrambling for the commodity to ease surging electricity prices.

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The world's biggest manganese ore producer recorded a 4% rise in its fourth-quarter output to 1.5 million wet metric tonnes (Mwmt) compared with 1.4 Mwmt. For the year, the output was 5.4 Mwmt, down nearly 3% from a year ago.

The Perth-based miner, which acquired a 45% stake in Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile earlier this year, logged 16.9 thousand tonnes of payable copper equivalent output during the quarter from its share in the project. (https://bit.ly/3o2QEFk)

(Reporting by Upasana Singh and Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Diane Craft)

COLUMN-China's mooted end to Australian coal ban will have zero market impact: Russell

By: Clyde Russell

T

ALK that China may end its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal is unlikely to result in any significant increase in shipments to the world's biggest coal buyer.

Media reports last week suggested that Beijing is considering lifting the informal embargo, put in place in the second half of 2020 as tensions escalated with Canberra over a series of issues.

Coal wasn't the only commodity affected, as China placed restrictions or bans on imports of barley, seafood and wine, among others.

The unofficial ban was effective, with Australia going from being China's biggest supplier of coal in July 2020 to shipping hardly any of the polluting fuel by January 2021, a situation that has persisted.

In July 2020, China imported 8.68 million tonnes of all grades of Australian coal, which exceeded the 8.54 million bought from Indonesia, the second-biggest source of imports, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler.

Those two countries accounted for 76.7% of China's total imports of 22.44 million tonnes in July 2020.

In July 2022, China is on track to import 23.14 million tonnes of coal, according to Kpler, with Indonesia slated to be the source of 13.65 million and Russia some 6.7 million.

The July import figures show why the mooted ending of the ban on Australian coal imports would have very little impact on actual physical flows.

It is far more likely that the proposed end to the ban is part of political overtures related to efforts to improve relations since the election of the centre-left Australian Labor Party in May, replacing the conservative Liberal-National coalition.

The simple fact is that Australian coal, both thermal and coking, is too expensive for Chinese utilities and steel makers to consider buying.

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China can end the unofficial ban on imports from Australia, likely win some brownie points with the new Australian federal government, and the end result doesn't really change, as Chinese buyers shun Australian fuel, but now based on price not politics.

PRICE BARRIER

Benchmark Australian thermal coal, the Newcastle weekly index ARGMCCINDX, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, ended at $410.47 a tonne on July 22.

While this was down from the prior week's $421.17 a tonne, it is still close to the all-time high of $425.31 on May 20, and an astonishing 757% above the $47.91 that prevailed in the same week in July 2020.

The price of Australian thermal coal has been driven to record levels by the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which sparked a scramble for the fuel from European buyers as they sought to end their dependence on shipments from Russia.

However, the same price dynamics haven't been played out for Indonesian thermal coal, which is of a lower quality than Australian and is thus not viable for European utilities.

Indonesia, the world's largest shipper of thermal coal, effectively remains a supplier to Asian markets, especially China and India, which are happy to take the lower energy coal if the price is right.

Indonesian coal with an energy value of 4,200 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg) IDIDX42GRW1=ARG ended last week at $82.67 a tonne.

Indonesian coal has been trending weaker in recent months, in stark contrast to Australian thermal coal.

Even allowing for the Newcastle benchmark's higher energy value of 6,000 kcal/kg, it is clear that the Australian grade is vastly more expensive that supplies from Indonesia.

Russian thermal coal is also being sold at significantly lower prices than Australian cargoes, with McCloskey World Coal assessing cargoes at the Pacific port of Vostochny CO-FOBVTY-RU at $179 a tonne, or less than half the Australian equivalent.

It is also likely that Russian producers are offering discounts to Chinese buyers, as they try to make up for lower volumes to major Asian coal importers such as Japan and South Korea.

It is also worth noting that China's domestic coal output has been rising strongly, with production hitting 2.19 billion tonnes in the first half of 2022, up 11% from the same period last year.

This surge in output, along with official steps to control prices, has kept China's domestic prices well below what Australian imports would cost.

Benchmark thermal coal at Qinhuangdao SH-QHA-TRMCOAL ended at 970 yuan a tonne on July 22, equivalent to about $143.70 a tonne, which is little more than one-third of the price of Australian coal.

If there are Australian coal miners hoping for a return of Chinese buyers, their hopes are likely to be dashed.

Australian coal is massively uncompetitive against its rivals, and China's rising domestic output means imports are likely to become less needed over time. (Editing by Robert Birsel)

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EU's return to coal shows double standard on carbon reduction

Xinhua

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ANY European countries have recently announced the reopening of coal power plants as gas supplies from Russia have slumped amid European Union sanctions.

Such measures are hindering the bloc's goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050, demonstrating the EU's double standards on reducing emissions.

REVERSED MEASURES

Many European countries, including Germany, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands and Denmark, once advocated abandoning coal power generation and protecting the environment.

However, to shake off a looming energy crisis, these countries have recently reopened their coal power plants or taken measures to support coal power.

Earlier this month, the European Parliament voted in favor of plans to award a green investment label to nuclear and gas projects, which sparked claims of "greenwashing" by some EU member states and environmental lobbyists.

The European Commission also announced earlier that "some of the existing coal capacities might be used longer than initially expected" because of the new energy landscape in Europe.

"We know that the energy mix and the plans of member states will adjust slightly because we are in an unexpected situation," Commission spokesman Tim McPhie said at a press briefing.

DOUBLE STANDARD

The EU's return to coal power is contrary to its long-term carbon reduction goal, and

"loosening" restrictions on itself is in sharp contrast to its carbon reduction requirements for other countries, said scholars.

"In a quest for energy security, developed countries are turning to fossil sources, presenting a major affront in the global climate action efforts," said Cavince Adhere, a Kenya-based international relations scholar.

"European countries which have been the chief beneficiaries of carbon pollution taking deliberate energy policy that clearly impinges on environmental protection aspirations. It is a demonstration of double standards," he added.

The expert also noted that developing countries are "boxed into a corner by rich countries,"

yet "efforts by countries like Kenya now face a major throwback as European countries turn to new fossil and gas sources."

Adhere's view was echoed by Sheriff Ghali, a professor of political science at Nigeria's University of Abuja.

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Ghali told Xinhua that Europe is the main destination of crude oil exports from African countries, such as Nigeria. While the bloc intends to relax requirements for itself, it shows no intention of relaxing its carbon emission requirements for other countries and regions. That, in effect, is a double standard, said Ghali.

LOOMING ENERGY CRISIS

Since the beginning of this year, the prices of natural gas and electricity have soared to record highs in Europe, leading to widespread inflation and severely impacting the European and global economies.

Despite taking several measures to relieve the bottleneck, analysts noted that there is no easy way out of the dilemma in the short term.

"The energy crisis in Europe could last longer than expected, and bring significant inflation in the medium to long run," Jiangwen Guo, a senior research fellow of Environment and Society Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House, told Xinhua.

Caroline Kuzemko, an associate professor and reader in international political economy at Britain's University of Warwick, told Xinhua that "the jury is out on EU emissions reduction schedule."

Kuzemko said the EU emissions reduction process largely depends on "how much coal is used this winter, how cold the winter gets, how quickly new renewables and heat pumps can be brought online." (Web editor: Sheng Chuyi, Bianji)

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