Previous Day:
Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Jumat (29/8), IHSG turun sebanyak –47,62 poin (-0,92%) ke level 5136,86. Ada seban-yak 137 saham yang naik, 163 saham yang mengalami ko-reksi, dan 85 saham yang stagnan. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 5,430 triliun. LQ45 turun –13,99 poin (-1,58%) ke level 869,19. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor perdagangan naik 0,70%, sektor konstruksi naik 0,26%, dan sektor pertambangan naik 0,01%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sektor keuangan turun 1,66%, sektor consumer goods turun 1,50%, dan sektor manufaktur turun 1,34%. For-eign net sell sebesar Rp 749,57 miliar. Indeks Nikkei jatuh 0,23%. Indeks Straits Times terpangkas 0,08%. Indeks Hang Seng naik tipis 0,00%. Indeks Shanghai naik 0,97%.
Today’s Market:
Secara teknikal indeks hari Senin (1/9) diperkirakan akan bergerak melemah di level 5118-5155. Indeks akan dipenga-ruhi oleh data perekonomian dalam negeri yakni data neraca perdagangan bulan Juli yang diperkirakan mengalami defisit dengan US$0,5 miliar dibandingkan sebelumnya defisit di US$0,3 miliar. Sedangkan data inflasi bulan Agustus diperkira-kan ke level 4,29% YoY dibandingdiperkira-kan sebelumnya di level 4,53% YoY. Selain itu, Cina juga akan merilis data HSBC manu-facturing PMI yang diperkirakan ke level 50,3 dibandingkan sebelumnya di 51,7.
Top Technical Buys: SCMA, MEDC, SMRA, INDY
Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/[email protected]
DAILY RESEARCH
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2014: ROTI 1,485
Clo s in g
J CI
Tra n s a c tio n Va lue (Rp tn ) Tra n s a c tio n Vo lume (mn s ha re s )
Fo re ig n Ne t Buy (S e ll) (Rp bn ) (7 4 9.5 7 ) Fo re ig n Ne t Buy (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn ) 5 6.6 7 a s p e rc e n ta g e o f la s t ye a r's 6.8 6 To ta l Ma rke t Ca p ita liza tion (Rp tn ) 4 ,7 9 9.9 8
Clo s in g 1 Da y Re tu rn % YTD Ch a n g e % 5 ,13 6.9 (0 .9 2) 20 .2 8 69 .2 (1.58 ) 22 .2 2 8.7 5 (0 .6 6) 25 .9 26 .5 (0 .8 2) 24 .6 17 ,0 9 8.5 0 .11 3 .1 2 ,0 03 .4 0 .33 8 .4 4 ,5 80 .3 0 .50 9 .7 6 ,8 19.8 0 .20 1.0 15 ,4 2 4.6 (0 .2 3) (5 .1) 2 4 ,7 4 1.0 0 .00 6 .2 3 ,3 30 .2 (0 .3 4) 5 .0 1,8 6 6 .1 (0.5 1) (0 .0 ) FO REX Ch a n g e % YTD Ch a n g e % US D/IDR 0.16 4 .1 EUR/IDR 0 .37 8 .8 J P Y/IDR 0.3 1 2 .9 S GD/IDR 0.14 2 .6 AUD/IDR 0 .49 (0 .7 ) GBP /IDR 0 .34 3 .7 P ric e 1 Da y Re tu rn % YTD Ch a n g e % CRUDE OIL (US D)/BARREL 96 .0 1.4 9 (2 .6 ) COAL (US D) / MT 76 .8 - (6 .0 ) NATURAL GAS (US D) / mmBtu 4 .1 0 .52 (4 .3 ) GOLD (US D) / OUNCE 1,2 8 7.8 (0.15 ) 6 .7 NICKEL (US D) / MT 18 ,8 0 0.0 0 .80 35 .2 TIN (US D) / MT 2 1,7 5 0.0 0 .07 (2 .1) CP O (MYR) / MT 1,9 8 4.0 (0 .6 0) (26 .3 ) RUBBER (J P Y)/KG 186 .4 (0 .8 5) (33 .5 ) WHEAT/BUS HEL 5 56 .5 1.6 9 (9 .1) CORN/BUS HEL 3 6 1.8 1.6 2 (14 .9 ) Ke y In d ic e s S TRAITS TIMES KLS E Ra te (IDR) 11,7 0 1 HANG S ENG DOW J ONES S &P 5 00 NAS DAQ FTS E NIKKEI Co mmo d itie s J CI LQ4 5 EIDO IDX 9 ,37 8 10 ,95 8 19 ,4 19 15 ,45 5 113 5 ,13 6.8 6 5.4 3 0 6 ,117 IDX S ta tis tic s
M onday, September 01, 2014 5,165 5,175 5,185 5,195
JCI Index
2
CORPORATE NEWS
•
PT PP Tbk (PTPP) menargetkan kontrak baru senilai Rp 15,6 triliun di semester II atau naik 87,76% dis-banding semester I. Proyeksi tersebut sesuai dengan target perolehan kontrak baru sepanjang 2014 sebe-sar Rp 14 triliun. Perusahaan fokus meraih proyek infrastruktur yang dianggarkan dalam anggaran penda-patan dan belanja daerah (APDB). Proyek tersebut diantaranya jalan tol Medan-Kualanamu, enam ruas tol dalam kota Jakarta, serta tol Solo-Kertosono, yang telah mendapat komitmen pembangunan oleh pemerin-tah. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today•
PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META) menargetkan akuisisi enam perusahaan per tahun. Perusa-haan fokus dalam akuisisi atau merger akan dilakukan di sektor pelabuhan dan menara telekomunikasi. Tahun ini juga perusahaan memasuki segmen bisnis menara telekomunikasi dengan mengakuisisi saham mayoritas PT Tara Cell Intrabuana (TowerCo) di semester I yang merupakan perusahaan telekomunikasi yang memiliki dan mengoperasikan menara serta fasilitas pendukung lainnya di Sumatera, Jawa, dan Batam. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today•
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk (PGAS) membukukan penurunan laba bersih sebesar 19% menjadi US$ 370 juta pada semester I-2014 dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar US$ 457 juta. Kenaikan harga beli gas dari pemasok mulai 1 September 2012 dan 1 April 2013 turut mem-pengaruhi kenaikan beban pokok pendapatan perusahaan di semester I. Beban pokok tersebut naik 23% menjadi US$ 967,3 juta disbanding semester I 2013 sebesar US$ 786,7 juta. Kenaikan beban yang lebih be-sar dari pendapatan membuat laba perusahaan tergerus. (Neutral) Source: Indonesia Finance Today•
PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA) meraih penjualan Rp 450 miliar di semester I-2014. Nilai inisetara dengan 37,5% dari total target seniali Rp 1,2 triliun tahun ini. Segmen penjualan lahan industri berkontribusi paling besar terhadap pencapaian perusahaan di semester I-2014. Dari pencapaian market-ing sales, segmen bisnis menyumbang sekitar Rp 301,5 miliar dan sisanya berasal dari properti. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
Eddy Wijaya/ Technical Analyst/62 21 3925550
TRADING VIEW
Monday, September 01, 2014
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
TICKER RECOMMENDATION PRICE ENTRY EXIT S2 S1 R1 R2 EXPLANATION
AGRICULTURE
AALI Trading Sell 25500 25500 25350 25200 25350 25650 25800 Stoc osc : downtrend BWPT Trading Buy 1030 1015 1040 1000 1015 1040 1050 Dragonfly doji LSIP Trading Sell 1870 1870 1850 1830 1850 1900 1930 Macd : downtrend BANK & FINANCE
BMRI Trading Sell 10375 10375 10325 10250 10325 10450 10600 Stoc osc : downtrend BBRI Trading Sell 11050 11050 10950 10875 10950 11125 11200 Macd : downtrend BBNI Buy on Weakness 5350 5300 5450 5250 5300 5450 5600 Inverted hammer BBCA Trading Sell 11200 11200 11000 10800 11000 11400 11650 Macd : downtrend CONSUMER GOODS
INDF Trading Sell 6875 6875 6825 6750 6825 6950 7000 Macd : downtrend ICBP Buy on Weakness 10500 10400 10600 10300 10400 10600 10700 Stoc osc : uptrend GGRM Buy on Weakness 54000 53750 54250 53500 53750 54250 54550 Stoc osc : reversal UNVR Trading Sell 31025 31025 30875 30675 30875 31350 31725 Stoc osc : downtrend CPIN Trading Sell 3845 3845 3820 3775 3820 3860 3880 Long black candle MAIN Buy on Weakness 3370 3350 3400 3320 3350 3400 3430 Doji
BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY
ASII Trading Sell 7575 7575 7525 7475 7525 7650 7725 Black spinning top SMGR Trading Sell 16225 16125 16350 16000 16125 16350 16450 Macd : downtrend INTP Trading Sell 24250 24250 24150 24050 24150 24450 24650 Macd : downtrend INFRASTRUCTURE
TLKM Trading Sell 2665 2665 2650 2635 2650 2680 2700 Macd : downtrend PGAS Trading Sell 5800 5800 5700 5600 5700 5900 6000 Macd : downtrend JSMR Trading Sell 6200 6200 6100 6000 6100 6300 6400 Stoc osc : downtrend TBIG Buy on Weakness 7875 7800 7950 7700 7800 7950 8050 White spinning top
RETAIL
MAPI Buy on Weakness 6025 5975 6100 5900 5975 6100 6175 White spinning top RALS Buy on Weakness 995 985 1005 970 985 1005 1020 Macd : downtrend ACES Buy on Weakness 935 925 940 910 925 940 950 Long legged doji MPPA Buy on Weakness 3080 3060 3120 3040 3060 3120 3150 Black spinning top MINING
PTBA Buy on Weakness 13350 13200 13425 13100 13200 13425 13550 Macd : downtrend ADRO Buy on Weakness 1315 1305 1325 1295 1305 1325 1335 White spinning top ITMG Buy on Weakness 28175 27950 28350 27750 27950 28350 28625 Stoc osc : uptrend ANTM Buy on Weakness 1195 1185 1205 1175 1185 1205 1215 Stoc osc : uptrend TINS Trading Sell 1430 1430 1420 1410 1420 1450 1465 Rsi : downtrend UNTR Buy on Weakness 22150 22050 22300 21950 22050 22300 22450 Macd : downtrend PROPERTY
ASRI Buy on Weakness 510 500 520 490 500 520 535 Rsi : uptrend LPKR Buy on Weakness 1070 1055 1090 1040 1055 1090 1110 Black spinning top CTRA Trading Buy 1215 1215 1230 1190 1200 1230 1245 Stoc osc : uptrend APLN Buy on Weakness 378 372 385 365 372 385 391 White spinning top SMRA Buy on Weakness 1340 1325 1350 1310 1325 1350 1375 Stoc osc : reversal SSIA Buy on Weakness 810 800 820 790 800 820 835 Rsi : reversal BSDE Trading Sell 1605 1605 1590 1580 1590 1620 1640 Macd : downtrend WIKA Buy on Weakness 2870 2850 2900 2835 2850 2900 2930 White spinning top PTPP Buy on Weakness 2465 2445 2480 2425 2445 2480 2495 Stoc osc : reversal ADHI Buy on Weakness 3070 3045 3090 3025 3045 3090 3120 Black spinning top
4
Global Equity Indices
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
M onday, September 01, 2014
Description YTD Change % 1-Sep-14 Forward 2014 P/E Ratio (Best Est.)
LQ45 22.2 869 Nikkei 225 (5.1) 15,462 JCI 20.2 5,137 FTSE 100 1.0 6,820 ASX 200 5.6 5,653 DJIA 3.1 17,098 S&P500 8.4 2,003 STI 5.0 3,327 CAC 40 2.0 4,381 Shanghai Composite 4.8 2,217 DAX (0.9) 9,470 KOSPI 2.7 2,065 Hang Seng 6.2 24,742 Euro Stoxx 2.0 3,173
Description YTD Change % 1-Sep-14 Description YTD Change % 1-Sep-14
AALI 1.6 25,500 ICBP 2.9 10,500 ADRO 20.6 1,315 IMAS (10.2) 4,400 AKRA 20.0 5,250 INCO 57.7 4,180 ANTM 9.6 1,195 INDF 4.2 6,875 ASII 11.4 7,575 INDY 24.6 735 ASRI 18.6 510 INTP 21.3 24,250 BBCA 16.7 11,200 ITMG (1.1) 28,175 BBNI 35.4 5,350 JSMR 31.2 6,200 BBRI 52.4 11,050 KLBF 32.8 1,660 BBTN 28.2 1,115 LPKR 17.6 1,070 BDMN (0.7) 3,750 LSIP (3.1) 1,870 BHIT 10.9 377 MAIN 6.1 3,370 BKSL (24.2) 119 MAPI 9.5 6,025 BMRI 32.2 10,375 MNCN 6.9 2,805 BMTR 1.8 1,935 PGAS 29.6 5,800 BSDE 24.4 1,605 PTBA 30.9 13,350 BUMI (35.0) 195 SMCB 28.4 2,920 BWPT (22.6) 1,030 SMGR 14.7 16,225 CPIN 13.9 3,845 SSIA 44.6 810 EXCL 14.4 5,950 TLKM 25.1 2,665 GGRM 28.6 54,000 UNTR 16.6 22,150 GIAA (12.7) 433 UNVR 19.3 31,025 HRUM (21.8) 2,150 JAKPROP INDEXJAKBIND INDEX
Sectors
JAKFIN INDEX
Description
JAKCONS INDEX
Property 3.3
JAKMIND INDEX
Basic Industry 0.3
JAKINFR INDEX
Trade (0.7)
JAKAGRI INDEX
Finance 0.2
JAKMINE INDEX
Miscellaneous Industry (0.7) Consumer (1.8) Infrastructure 0.2 Agriculture (3.1) Mining 6.5 1-mth Return %
Selected Indonesian Equities
16.3 17.4 16.6 14.2 15.8 15.1 16.8 14.7 15.1 8.8 13.4 16.0 11.4 14.4
Dividend
M on d a y, Sep tem ber 01, 2014
Ticker Status DPS (IDR) Cum Date Ex Date Recording Payment
RDTX Final 105 22 Agustus 2014 25 Agustus 2014 27 Agustus 2014 10 September 2014
EMTK Final 79 25 Agustus 2014 26 Agustus 2014 28 Agustus 2014 10 September 2014
TBLA Final 12 28 Agustus 2014 29 Agustus 2014 2 September 2014 10 September 2014
JAWA Final 1.80 29 Agustus 2014 1 September 2014 3 September 2014 17 September 2014
ACST Final 39.50 29 Agustus 2014 1 September 2014 3 September 2014 17 September 2014
NELY Final 4 1 September 2014 2 September 2014 4 September 2014 18 September 2014
LTLS Final 29 8 September 2014 9 September 2014 11 September 2014 25 September 2014
6
Global Reference Rates FOREX Rate (USD) Change %
FED Rate 0.25 USDIDR 11,699 (0.08)
BI Rate 7.50 USDEUR 0.76 0.03
ECB Rate 0.15 USDJPY 104 (0.04)
BOJ Rate 0.10 USDSGD 1.25 (0.06)
BOE Rate 0.50 USDAUD 1.07 0.13
PBOC Rate 6.00 USDGBP 0.60 0.03
Description July June
Inflation YTD (%) 2.94 1.99 8.35
Inflation YOY (%) 4.53 6.70 1.05
Inflation MOM (%) 0.93 0.43 1.46
Foreign Reserves (USD bn) 107.05 7.96
GDP YOY Growth Rate 1Q14 (%) 5.12 8.16
GDP Growth Rate 2014 (%) 1.20 8.53
Dual Listed Price (IDR) Change %
TLKM (US) 2,690.77 0.00
ANTM (GR) 1,029.06 (6.94)
%
Lending & Deposit Rates
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%) JIBOR (IDR) (%) LIBOR (GBP) (%) SIBOR (USD) (%) INDOGB 5Y YIELD (%) INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
MACRO INDICATORS APBN-P 2014 APBN 2014
GDP Growth (%) 5.5 6.0
Inflation (%) 5.3 5.5
Exchange rate (USD/IDR) 11.600 10,500
3 Months SPN (%) 6.0 5.5
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel) 105 105
Oil Lifting (barrel/day) 818,000 870,000
Gas Lifting (BOE/day) 1,224,000 1,240,000
Total APBN (IDR tn) 1,635 1,667
DISCLAIMER
This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without no-tice.
