Riset Saham Harian
Samuel Equity Research 10 Oktober 2018
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IHSG berpotensi kembali menguat
Pergerakan indeks Dow Jones dan S&P 500 di bursa Wall Street Amerika Serikat (AS) berakhir di zona merah pada perdagangan Selasa (9/10/2018), di tengah kekhawatiran investor tentang prospek pertumbuhan global. Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup turun 0,21% atau 56,21 poin di level 26.430,57 dan indeks S&P 500 turun 0,14% atau 4,09 poin di 2.880,34. Di sisi lain, indeks Nasdaq Composite mampu berakhir di zona positif meski hanya naik 0,03% atau 2,07 poin di level 7.738,02. Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) menurunkan perkiraan pertumbuhan ekonomi global untuk 2018 dan 2019. IMF juga memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS dan China di 2019 karena kedua negara itu akan merasakan dampak perang dagang di tahun depan.
Presiden Donald Trump mengulangi ancaman untuk memberlakukan tarif terhadap impor tambahan China senilai US$267 miliar jika Tiongkok melakukan retaliasi atas tarif dan langkah-langkah lain yang diambil AS dalam perang perdagangan dengannya. Pergerakan bursa Wall Street sempat sedikit mendapat topangan dari penurunan imbal hasil Treasury AS bertenor 10 tahun, setelah lonjakannya pada pekan lalu memberi tekanan pada pasar ekuitas. Dari pasar komoditas, harga emas cenderung menguat dan minyak melemah.
IHSG berhasil rally selama dua hari. Pada perdagangan Selasa (9/10), IHSG ditutup menguat 0,62% menuju level 5.796. Kami melihat IHSG mampu kembali menguat, seiring dengan perhelatan IMF yang tergolong sukses, dan Rupiah yang cenderung stabil.
Highlights
BBCA: Kredit diproyeksikan tumbuh 12-15%
Sektor ritel: Penjualan ritel melambat pada 3Q18
HKMU: Incar kenaikan laba
: 5,796.8 : +35.7 (+0.6%) : 6,468 Mn shrs : 4,282 Bn rupiah Last Close +/- % BBCA 23,750 300 1.3 ASII 7,025 175 2.6 TLKM 3,590 70 2.0 BMRI 6,350 150 2.4 PGAS 2,120 -100 -4.5 PTBA 4,500 -190 -4.1 KLBF 1,250 -40 -3.1 GGRM 74,000 -800 -1.1
Foreign Net Buy / Sell (Regular Market)
Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn)
TLKM 98 PGAS 94 BMRI 47 PNLF 64 INKP 23 UNTR 46 INTP 10 BBNI 31 ACES 10 SMGR 25 Money Market Last Close +/- % USD/IDR 15,238 20.0 -0.1 JIBOR O/N 5.7 0.0
Dual Listing Securities
Last Close +/- % TLKM 23.5 0.2 0.8 ISAT 56.4 -2.5 -4.2 EIDO 21.5 -0.1 -0.2 Global Indices Last Close +/- % DJIA 26,431 -56 -0.2 S&P 500 2,880 -4 -0.1 Euro Stoxx 3,322 12 0.4 MSCI World 2,138 -5 -0.2 Nikkei 23,482 12 0.1 Hang Seng 26,173 -30 -0.1 Commodities Last Close +/- % Brent Oil 85 0.0 0.0 CPO Malay 2,265 17.0 0.8 Coal (ICE) 111 -2.4 -2.2 Nickel 12,974 436.0 3.5 Tin 18,982 106.0 0.6 Market Value Market Activity Wednesday, 10 Oct 2018 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Changes Changes Leading Movers Lagging Movers Changes Changes Changes
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10 Oktober 2018
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BBCA: Kredit diproyeksikan tumbuh 12-15%
BBCA memproyeksikan kredit tumbuh 12-15%yoy tahun ini ditopang terutama oleh segmen korporasi. Pengetatan likuiditas dinilai tengah terjadi di industri perbankan, namun BBCA melihat hal itu tidak akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan kredit BBCA. DPK diperkirakan tumbuh 8-9%yoy tahun ini. Bunga bank yang relatif rendah dan
peningkatan biaya hidup masyarakat dinilai sebagai faktor yang memperlambat pertumbuhan DPK. (Kontan) BBCA: Buy; 19E’ PE: 21.1x, PBV: 3.4x TP: Rp 26,250
Sektor ritel: Penjualan ritel melambat pada 3Q18
Penjualan ritel kuartal ketiga tahun ini diperkirakan tumbuh melambat dibandingkan dengan kuartal kedua 2018. Indeks Penjualan Riil periode Juli – September 2018 berdasarkan Survei Penjualan Eceran yang dilakukan Bank Indonesia (BI) tumbuh melambat dibandingkan periode 3 bulan sebelumnya. IPR untuk kuartal III 2018 hanya tumbuh 4.2% YoY, padahal kuartal sebelumnya tumbuh 4.9%YoY yang disebabkan oleh perlambatan penjualan kelompok suku cadang aksesori, kelompok peralatan informasi dan komunikasi. (Kontan) Sektor Ritel: Netral
HKMU: Incar kenaikan laba
HKMU memproyeksikan kenaikan laba bersih 165% menjadi Rp 80 miliar di tahun ini. Perusahaan yang baru IPO ini akan memakai sebagian besar dana IPO yang diperoleh untuk pengembangan kapasitas pabrik aluminium. (Bisnis Indonesia) HKMU: Non-Coverage
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Stock Rec. JCI Wgt Last price YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE
(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) 18E 19E 18E 19E 18E 19E
Banks BMRI BUY 4.5 6350 (20.6) 8136 8200 12.5 11.0 1.6 1.5 13.1% 13.4% BBCA HOLD 9.0 23750 8.4 24864 26250 23.2 21.2 3.9 3.4 16.9% 16.2% BBRI BUY 5.7 3020 (17.0) 3761 3800 11.7 10.4 2.0 1.8 17.2% 16.9% BBNI BUY 1.9 6825 (31.1) 9053 9050 8.6 7.4 1.2 1.1 13.7% 14.3% BBTN HOLD 0.4 2410 (32.5) 3232 2800 7.7 6.7 1.0 0.9 13.6% 13.9% BNLI BUY 0.2 494 (21.0) 544 610 24.7 16.5 0.6 0.6 2.6% 3.7% Average 14.7 12.2 1.7 1.5 12.8% 13.1% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 1.6 8875 (0.3) 9731 10200 24.7 22.6 4.7 4.2 19.1% 18.6% INDF BUY 0.8 5600 (26.6) 8250 8400 10.6 9.6 1.4 1.3 13.6% 13.8% KLBF HOLD 0.9 1250 (26.0) 1411 1450 23.1 21.9 4.0 3.7 17.4% 16.7% UNVR HOLD 5.2 44400 (20.6) 45778 49900 43.6 40.4 55.7 50.6 127.7% 125.2% Average 25.5 23.6 16.5 15.0 44.4% 43.6% Cigarette HMSP SELL * 6.9 3850 (18.6) 4135 3900 34.7 32.5 11.8 10.7 34.0% 32.8% GGRM BUY 2.2 74000 (11.7) 84593 83700 17.6 17.1 3.0 2.6 16.8% 15.3% Average 26.1 24.8 7.4 6.6 25.4% 24.1% Healthcare MIKA BUY 0.4 1555 (14.1) 1829 2050 30.3 25.0 4.5 3.6 14.9% 14.6% SILO HOLD 0.1 2680 (72.0) 3636 3250 39.7 34.3 0.6 0.5 1.4% 1.4% Average 35.0 29.6 2.5 2.1 8.2% 8.0% Poultry CPIN HOLD 1.3 5050 68.3 5619 5500 19.8 17.5 4.4 3.8 22.5% 21.6% JPFA BUY 0.4 1970 51.5 2692 2750 8.2 7.1 1.8 1.5 22.3% 21.2% MAIN BUY 0.0 1120 51.4 1518 1400 7.6 5.2 1.0 0.9 13.2% 16.7% Average 11.9 9.9 2.4 2.1 19.3% 19.8% Retail MAPI BUY 0.2 800 29.0 1016 930 26.7 17.0 3.3 2.8 12.3% 16.4% RALS BUY 0.1 1280 6.7 1594 1550 21.7 19.1 2.4 2.3 11.2% 12.2% ACES BUY 0.4 1370 18.6 1580 1550 24.5 20.8 6.7 5.6 27.3% 27.2% Average 24.3 19.0 4.1 3.6 17.0% 18.6%
Pulp and Paper
INKP HOLD 1.3 15175 181.0 22450 20000 10.6 8.6 1.6 1.4 15.0% 15.7% Media MNCN BUY 0.2 770 (40.1) 1337 1500 6.8 6.6 1.1 1.0 16.5% 15.8% SCMA BUY 0.4 1740 (29.8) 2473 3000 14.1 11.1 5.1 4.0 36.3% 35.8% Average 10.5 8.8 3.1 2.5 26.4% 25.8% Telco EXCL BUY 0.5 2880 (2.7) 3707 3380 125.2 26.7 1.4 1.3 1.1% 5.1% ISAT BUY 0.2 2750 (42.7) 3738 7400 5.6 5.2 0.9 0.8 16.3% 16.2% TLKM HOLD 5.5 3590 (18.4) 4123 3700 18.6 18.5 3.7 3.4 19.7% 18.3% TOWR BUY 0.4 478 (40.3) 825 900 8.2 7.5 1.7 1.4 20.2% 19.2% Average 39.4 14.5 1.9 1.8 14.3% 14.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY 4.4 7025 (15.4) 8470 9400 14.1 12.6 2.1 1.9 14.7% 14.8% UNTR BUY 1.8 32000 (9.6) 42344 41500 14.3 11.1 2.3 2.0 16.2% 18.3% Average 14.2 11.8 2.2 1.9 15.4% 16.5% Aviation GIAA HOLD 0.1 204 (32.0) 276 295 149.5 14.8 0.4 0.3 0.3% 2.1%
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10 Oktober 2018 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 6 Property BSDE BUY 0.3 1000 (41.2) 1903 2350 3.6 3.3 0.5 0.5 14.6% 13.6% PWON BUY 0.3 464 (32.3) 713 767 11.3 9.5 1.9 1.6 16.8% 17.2% ASRI HOLD 0.1 276 (22.5) 378 310 4.7 4.5 0.6 0.5 11.9% 11.2% SMRA SELL * 0.1 595 (37.0) 968 782 23.8 22.5 1.1 1.1 4.6% 5.1% SSIA HOLD 0.0 486 (5.6) 663 564 116.8 78.9 0.6 0.6 0.5% 0.7% CTRA BUY 0.2 810 (31.6) 1325 1580 16.4 15.3 0.8 0.8 5.0% 5.1% DMAS HOLD 0.1 140 (18.1) 211 156 10.1 9.6 0.9 0.8 8.7% 8.4% KIJA SELL 0.1 210 (26.6) 240 203 47.1 41.1 0.7 0.7 1.5% 1.7% Average 29.2 23.1 0.9 0.8 7.9% 7.9% Construction PTPP BUY 0.1 1545 (41.5) 3167 3350 7.6 6.9 0.8 0.7 10.9% 10.7% ADHI BUY 0.1 1300 (31.0) 2386 3250 7.3 5.1 0.7 0.6 9.1% 11.4% WSKT BUY 0.3 1640 (25.8) 2702 3250 6.0 5.6 0.9 0.8 14.3% 14.8% WIKA BUY 0.2 1300 (16.1) 2156 1850 8.0 6.5 0.7 0.6 8.6% 9.4% Average 7.2 6.0 0.8 0.7 10.7% 11.6% Cement INTP SELL 1.0 16750 (23.7) 16116 13300 22.5 19.1 2.2 2.0 9.6% 10.5% SMGR BUY 0.9 9300 (6.1) 9885 12000 15.6 14.3 1.7 1.5 10.7% 10.7% SMCB SELL 0.1 1130 35.3 732 700 -15.5 -18.5 1.2 1.2 -7.7% -6.6% Average 7.5 4.9 1.7 1.6 4.2% 4.9% Precast WSBP BUY 0.1 348 (14.7) 507 580 8.2 7.0 1.0 0.9 12.4% 12.5% WTON BUY 0.0 342 (31.6) 657 750 7.7 7.4 0.9 0.7 11.5% 10.0% Average 8.0 7.2 1.0 0.8 11.9% 11.3%Oil and Gas
PGAS BUY 0.8 2120 21.1 2590 3000 14.8 12.9 1.3 1.3 9.1% 9.7% AKRA BUY 0.2 3820 (39.8) 5475 6000 8.2 10.6 1.7 1.5 20.4% 14.3% TPIA SELL * 1.3 4570 (23.8) 4768 5480 18.7 16.8 3.1 2.7 16.8% 16.2% BRPT HOLD 0.5 1720 (23.9) 2244 2400 11.8 10.5 0.9 0.8 7.6% 7.4% MEDC BUY 0.3 920 3.4 1371 1500 12.6 9.9 0.9 0.8 6.9% 8.0% Average 13.2 12.1 1.6 1.4 12.2% 11.1% Utilities JSMR BUY 0.5 4360 (31.9) 5802 7500 13.1 9.9 1.9 1.7 14.3% 16.8% Metal ANTM BUY 0.3 810 29.6 1251 1050 73.6 36.8 1.2 1.1 1.6% 3.1% INCO BUY 0.5 3400 17.6 5177 5200 23.8 23.2 1.3 1.3 5.3% 5.4% TINS BUY 0.1 725 (6.5) 1176 1150 11.0 10.1 0.9 0.8 8.1% 8.4% Average 36.2 23.4 1.1 1.1 5.0% 5.6% Coal DOID BUY 0.1 705.0 (1.4) 1435.0 1450 4.8 4.4 1.7 1.2 34.4% 27.3% ITMG BUY 0.5 25750 24.4 32553 32500 9.3 8.8 1.9 1.8 20.8% 20.8% ADRO BUY 0.9 1730 (7.0) 2578 2410 7.4 7.1 1.0 0.9 13.7% 12.8% PTBA BUY 0.8 4500 82.9 4844 5300 7.7 6.5 3.4 3.0 44.5% 46.5% Average 7.3 6.7 2.0 1.7 28.3% 26.8% Plantation AALI BUY 0.3 11675 (11.2) 14086 15200 11.6 9.5 1.2 1.1 10.3% 11.8% LSIP BUY 0.1 1215 (14.4) 1434 1420 10.8 10.3 0.9 0.9 8.7% 8.8% TBLA BUY 0.1 955 (22.0) 1360 1500 5.4 4.4 1.1 0.9 20.7% 21.8% SIMP HOLD 0.1 482 3.9 515 520 21.9 18.5 0.5 0.5 2.3% 2.7% Average 12.4 10.7 0.9 0.9 10.5% 11.3%
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Note: GIAA, INKP, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD. Note: *: Under Review
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Global Data
Regional Indices Last Price Chg (Pts)
1D 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
World 2,138 (5.10) (0.24) (0.60) (2.07) (0.19) 0.12 1.66 5.78 2,250 2,010 U.S. (S&P) 2,880 (4.09) (0.14) (0.73) (1.47) 0.11 3.10 7.73 12.93 2,941 2,533 U.S. (DOW) 26,431 (56.21) (0.21) (0.74) (1.28) 2.22 6.06 6.92 15.77 26,952 22,771 Europe 3,322 12.07 0.36 (1.58) (1.98) 0.38 (4.36) (5.20) (7.70) 3,709 3,262 Emerging Market 994 (1.52) (0.15) (0.68) (3.97) (1.71) (7.64) (14.20) (10.66) 1,279 989 FTSE 100 7,238 4.26 0.06 (2.44) (3.17) (0.57) (5.91) (5.86) (3.99) 7,904 6,867 CAC 40 5,319 18.30 0.35 (1.71) (2.73) 0.93 (2.13) 0.11 (0.84) 5,657 5,038 Dax 11,977 30.06 0.25 (2.18) (2.93) (0.08) (5.02) (7.28) (7.51) 13,597 11,727 Indonesia 5,797 35.72 0.62 0.70 (1.34) (0.59) (1.44) (8.79) (1.85) 6,693 5,558 Japan 23,559 89.92 0.38 (1.74) (2.93) 5.30 6.14 3.49 13.14 24,448 20,347 Australia 6,036 (4.97) (0.08) (2.42) (1.79) (1.72) (3.55) (0.48) 5.19 6,374 5,720 Korea 2,239 (14.44) (0.64) (1.54) (4.25) (1.85) (2.03) (9.24) (6.48) 2,607 2,218 Singapore 3,167 (14.85) (0.47) (2.01) (2.35) 1.46 (3.30) (6.94) (3.72) 3,642 3,103 Malaysia 1,774 (1.60) (0.09) (0.89) (1.33) (1.39) 5.16 (1.26) 0.74 1,896 1,658 Hong Kong 26,173 (29.66) (0.11) (1.69) (3.51) (1.66) (8.75) (12.52) (8.14) 33,484 26,068 China 2,721 4.50 0.17 (2.53) (2.16) 1.93 (3.77) (17.72) (19.57) 3,587 2,644 Taiwan 10,467 10.90 0.10 (2.35) (4.15) (2.41) (2.70) (1.65) (0.63) 11,270 10,189 Thailand 1,697 0.70 0.04 (1.88) (2.93) 0.32 3.24 (3.24) (0.59) 1,853 1,585 Philipines 7,059 8.56 0.12 (0.48) (1.02) (7.07) (2.40) (17.52) (15.94) 9,078 6,924
Monetary Indicators Last Chg (Pts)
1D 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
JIBOR Overnight (%) 5.69 0.00 6.06 3.89
Foreign Reserves (US$Bn) 114.85 (2.61) (4.17) (11.79) (11.25) 131.98 114.85
Inflation Rate (yoy, %) 2.88 3.61 2.88
Gov Bond Yld (10yr, %) 8.62 0.01 8.68 6.09
US Fed Rate (%) 2.25 2.25 1.25
Exchange Rate (per USD) Last Price Chg (Pts)
1D 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Indonesia 15,238 20.00 (0.13) (0.39) (1.28) (2.50) (5.99) (10.96) (11.29) 15,284 13,268
Japan 113.02 0.06 (0.05) 0.62 1.34 (1.67) (1.79) (0.29) (0.50) 114.73 104.56
UK 1.32 0.00 0.05 0.23 1.62 0.95 (0.95) (2.69) (0.40) 1.44 1.27
Euro 1.15 0.00 0.10 (0.18) 0.22 (0.78) (2.05) (4.18) (2.58) 1.26 1.13
China 6.92 (0.01) 0.12 (0.78) (0.78) (0.97) (4.43) (6.01) (4.30) 6.93 6.24
Commodity Indicators Last Price Chg (Pts)
1D 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Oil (WTI) 74.76 (0.20) (0.27) 0.56 (2.16) 10.69 0.88 23.73 46.82 76.90 49.54 CPO 2,265 17.00 0.76 (1.01) 1.62 (1.26) (0.31) (9.51) (17.18) 2,857 2,137 Rubber 660.50 1.50 0.23 0.00 (0.30) (2.58) (1.56) (9.83) (19.60) 814.50 610.50 Coal 110.60 (2.45) (2.17) (3.53) (3.74) (2.81) (1.91) 8.80 13.73 118.00 90.60 Iron Ore 65.30 0.25 0.38 0.60 0.72 5.32 9.49 (7.74) 1.78 76.88 57.85 Tin 18,982 106.00 0.56 0.06 0.19 (0.46) (3.50) (5.54) (9.10) 22,104 18,662 Nickel 13,010 435.00 3.46 4.16 3.96 5.30 (7.50) 1.96 18.11 16,690 10,740 Copper 6,292 114.00 1.85 0.03 0.19 6.05 (1.53) (13.18) (5.61) 7,348 5,773 Gold 1,191 1.90 0.16 (1.01) (0.78) (0.32) (5.15) (8.85) (7.85) 1,366 1,160
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research
Change (%) 1 Year
Change (%) 1 Year
Change (%) 1 Year
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or
issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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Research Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer (Staple) [email protected] +6221 2854 8148
Ahmad Mikail Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396
William Mamudi, CMT Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Property, Construction, Cement, Toll Road, Aviation, Automotive, Mining Contractor, Cigarette, Healthcare
[email protected] +6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara Oil and Gas, Chemical, Coal, Telco, Telco Retail [email protected] +6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja Consumer (Poultry, Retail, Small Cap),
Pulp and Paper, Media [email protected] +6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Metal, Telco Infrastructure, Plantation,
Small Cap [email protected] +6221 2854 8339
Albertha Palma Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325
Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371
