Recommendation Flashback 04/25/2014 Week's Potential Week's Potential

(1)

Weekly Trading Plan

Monday, May 05

th

₂₀₁₄

4838.76

-58.88

815.80 -1.20%

-13.68

Vol (Mn):

19 -1.65%

Val (Bn):

24 F Net B (Bn):

(957)

Weekly LQ-45

Weekly IHSG

International

Last

WoW Chg

(%)

DJIA

16,512.89

151.44 0.93%

Nasdaq

4,123.90

48.34 1.19%

S&P 500

1,881.14

17.74 0.95%

FTSE 100

6,822.42

136.73 2.05%

Nikkei 225

14,457.51

28.25 0.20%

Hang Seng

22,260.67

37.14 0.17%

STI

3,252.6

-15.02

-0.46%

Exchange Rates

Last

WoW Chg

(%)

USD / IDR

11515

-48.80

-0.42%

US $ Index

79.52

0.07 0.09%

EUR / USD

1.3867

0.00 0.34%

USD / JPY

102.09 -0.01

-0.01%

GBP / USD

1.6882

0.01 0.55%

USD / CNY

6.253

0.00 0.07%

AUD / USD

0.9254

0.00 -0.36%

Others

Last

WoW Chg

(%)

S&P 500 Vlty (VIX)

12.91 -1.15

-8.18%

Baltic Dry

1,017.00

50.00 5.17%

Sector

Last

WoW Chg

(%)

Agriculture

2405.77

32.91 1.39%

Mining

1447.21

-29.28

-1.98%

Basic Industry

508.32 -22.70

-4.27%

Misc Industry

1296.70

-61.30

-4.51%

Consumer

2021.04

22.82 1.14%

Property

426.40 -6.89

-1.59%

Infrastructure

1026.73

-18.67

-1.79%

Finance

647.47 -4.09

-0.63%

Trade

875.35 -3.00

-0.34%

Composite

4838.76

-58.88

-1.20%

Recommendation Flashback

04/25/2014

Week's

Potential Week's

Potential

Stock

Rec.

04/25/2014

(close)

Stop Loss Loss

Week's

Highest

Date

Potential

Gain

Week's

Lowest

Date

Potential

Gain

BBTN

SB

1230

1200

-2.4%

1230

4/28/2014

0.0%

1115

5/2/2014

-9.3%

EXCL

PS

5000

4930

-1.4%

5175

4/30/2014

3.5%

4805

4/29/2014

-3.9%

PGAS

PS

5525

5400

-2.3%

5575

4/28/2014

0.9%

5225

4/30/2014

-5.4%

SGRO

PS

2310

2250

-2.6%

2450

4/30/2014

6.1%

2310

4/28/2014

0.0%

LQ-45 Close

813.731

812.087

814.963

815.80 LQ-45 % Chg

LQ-45 % Chg

-1.90%

-0.20%

0.35%

0.00%

0.10%

Frgn Net Buy (Bn)

(376)

-497.97

-169.49

0

85.65

5.68

5.22

7.02 -5.59

4.28

5.18

4.42 -4.71

4,818.76

4,819.68

4,840.15

4,838.76

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

5,000.00

4/28/2014

4/29/2014

4/30/2014

5/1/2014

5/2/2014

Value (Bn) Volu me (Mn ) IHSG

-1.61%

_0.02%

_0.42%

_0.00%

_-0.03%

(2)

Weekly Trading Plan

Weekly Technical Review

IHSG

S1

4843

R1

4910

S1

4843

R1

4910

S2

4768

R2

5000

S3

4692

R3

5100

Comment:

JCI declined after pulled back strong resistance level last week, Trading range

4824-4917.

By the first session today the index has golden-crossed with MA7 & MA25, the index

moves slightly on positive territory.

Stochastic is on bullish movement from the oversold state, Broad upside potential.

Relative Strength Index Indicator shows a strong bullish momentum at overbought

oscillator. The Index on middle lower band from Bollinger bands indicator and it’s a

positive signal after pulled back lower band last week.

Long term and medium term bullish movement.

This week stop-loss level 4820, if the index break out the support level, it will

potentially continue to 4765 (MA50 support level). This week resistance level 4900, if

the index break out resistance level, it will continue to move upward to 5000.

(3)

Weekly Trading Plan

Sectoral Highlight

BASIC INDUSTRY

S1

500 R1

521 S2

484 R2

545 S3

468 R3

570 Comment:

The Basic Industry index declined significantly after break out the fractal support level

last week. Trading range 516-532.

By the first session today, The index forms a bullish harami and has pull back The

MA200 Support level.

Stochastic, golden-crossed at oversold state, Bullish movement potential. RSI on bullish

momentum at the oversold oscillator. The index reached the lower Bollinger band,

signaling a potential pullback movement to the upper band.

Medium term bearish movement.

This week stop loss level around 505 (MA200 support level). If the index broke through

this support, it will potentially continue to 484.

The break up confirmation level is 518 (MA7 resistance level). The rally shall continue if

the index able to pierce up this level. The next upside target will be 535 (MA50

Resistance level).

(4)

Weekly Trading Plan

Stock Highlight

SMGR

S1

14500

R1

15125

S2

13925

R2

15900

S3

13150

R3

17000

Comment:

SMGR declined significantly after dead-cross The MA50 support level last week. Trading

range 14850-15775.

By the first session this week, The candle forms a bullish harami and has pull back The

MA200 Support level. The price moves slightly on positive territory.

Stochastic, golden-cross at oversold state, strong bullish movement potential. RSI

shows a bullish momentum at the oversold oscillator. The price has pulled back away

the lower Bollinger band, signaling a potential reversal to the upper band.

Upside scenario:

Intraday resistance 15125, if the price able to move above this level, it will continue its

movement towards 15525 (MA50 resistance level).

Downside scenario:

Stop loss level at 14400 (MA200 Support level). Do a tight stop loss on this level. If a

break down appeared, the price will potentially continue to 13925.

(5)

Weekly Trading Plan

Stock Highlight

CPIN

S1

3600

R1

3825

S2

3300

R2

4140

S3

3050

R3

4500

Comment:

CPIN declined significantly last week, after dead-crossed The MA200 support level.

Trading range 3750-3950.

By the first session this week, The candle forms a 2 days reversal pattern. The price

moves slightly on positive territory.

Stochastic shows a golden-cross at oversold state, broad upside potential. RSI shows a

bullish momentum potential at oversold oscillator, The price on the middle lower

Bollinger bands, signaling a reversal towards the upper bands.

Upside scenario:

Intraday resistance 3825, if the price able to move above this level, it will continue its

movement towards level 3950 (Max bearish trend line).

Downside scenario:

Stop loss level at 3600. Do a tight stop loss on this level. If a break down appeared, the

price will probably continue to the 3300.

(6)

Weekly Trading Plan

HEAD OFFICE

Reliance Building

Jl. Pluit Kencana No. 15A,

Pluit Penjaringan

Jakarta 14450

T

T +62 21 661 7768

F

F +62 21 661 9884

RESEARCH DIVISION

Jasa Adhi Mulya

jasa@reliance-securities.com

Robertus

robertus@reliance-securities.com

Lanjar Nafi Taulat I

lanjar@reliance-securities.com

Hansen Teguh

hansen@reliance-securities.com

Aji Setiawan

aji@reliance-securities.com

Alan Milgerry

alan@reliance-securities.com

Pieter Djatmiko

pieter@reliance-securities.com

EQUITY DIVISION

EQUITY DIVISIONEQUITY DIVISION

EQUITY DIVISION

Jakarta JakartaJakarta Jakarta--- Pluit-PluitPluitPluit

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T + 62 21 5793 0008 F + 62 21 5793 0010

Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta

Jakarta –––– KebonKebonKebonKebon JerukJerukJerukJeruk Plaza Kebon Jeruk Jl.Raya Perjuangan Blok A/2 Jakarta 11530 T + 62 21 532 4074 F + 62 21 536 2157 BSD BSDBSD BSD

Jl. Pahlawan Seribu Ruko BSD Sektor 7 Blok RK kav. 9 Tangerang 15310 T + 62 21 5387495 F + 62 21 5387494 Malang MalangMalang Malang Bandung Bandung Bandung Bandung Jl.Cisangkuy No.58 Bandung 40115 T + 62 22 721 8200 F + 62 22 721 9255 Tasikmalaya Tasikmalaya Tasikmalaya Tasikmalaya

Ruko Tasik Indah Plaza No. 21 Jl. KHZ Mustofa No. 345 Tasikmalaya 46121 T + 62 265 345000 F + 62 265 345003 Yogyakarta Yogyakarta Yogyakarta Yogyakarta

Jl. Juadi No. 1 Kotabaru Yogyakarta 55224 T + 62 274 550 123 F + 62 274 551 121 Surakarta Surakarta Surakarta Surakarta

Jl. Slamet Riyadi 330A Solo 57145 T + 62 271 733480 F + 62 271 733478 Balikpapan Balikpapan Balikpapan Balikpapan Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya ---- GubengGubengGubengGubeng Jl. Bangka No. 22 Surabaya 60281 T + 62 31 501 1128 F + 62 31 503 3196 Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya

Surabaya –––– DiponegoroDiponegoroDiponegoroDiponegoro Jl. Diponegoro No. 26D Surabaya 60261 T + 62 31 567 0388 F + 62 31 561 0528 Denpasar Denpasar Denpasar Denpasar

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Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta –––– CentroCentroCentroCentro

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POJOK BURSA & GALERI INVESTASI POJOK BURSA & GALERI INVESTASI POJOK BURSA & GALERI INVESTASI POJOK BURSA & GALERI INVESTASI

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Resto Plaza 1F - Jababeka Education Park Jl. Ki Hajar Dewantara Raya

Cikarang - Bekasi 17550 T + 62 21 89106030

Universitas Siliwangi Tasikmalaya Universitas Siliwangi Tasikmalaya Universitas Siliwangi Tasikmalaya Universitas Siliwangi Tasikmalaya Jl. Siliwangi No. 24

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STIE "AUB" Surakarta STIE "AUB" Surakarta STIE "AUB" Surakarta STIE "AUB" Surakarta Jl. Mr. Sartono 97, Cengklik Nusukan, Surakarta 57135 T + 62 271 854803 F + 62 271 853084

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Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik Jl. Sumatra 101 GKB

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Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang Jl. Raya Tlogomas 246 Malang 65144 T + 62 341 464318-9 F + 62 341 460782 Universitas Brawijaya Universitas Brawijaya Universitas Brawijaya Universitas Brawijaya Jl. Veteran Malang 65145 T + 62 341 551611, 575777 F + 62 341 565420 STIE Malangkucecwara STIE Malangkucecwara STIE Malangkucecwara STIE Malangkucecwara Jl. Terusan Candi Kalasan Malang 65142 T + 62 341 491813 F + 62 341 495619 Universitas Jember Universitas Jember Universitas Jember Universitas Jember Jl. Jawa No. 17 Jember 68121 T + 62 331 330732 F + 62 331 326419 STIESIA Surabaya STIESIA Surabaya STIESIA Surabaya STIESIA Surabaya Jl. Menur Pumpungan 30 Surabaya T + 62 31 5947505 F + 62 31 5932218 Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Banyuwangi Jl. Adi Sucipto 26 Banyuwangi, Jawa Timur T + 62 333 419613 F + 62 333 419163

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