Flood in Jakarta as Impact of Climate Change

(1)

Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.

Head of Meteorology Department, ITB

Mini-Symposium: “Flood Risk and Adaptation in

Jakarta”

FITB-ITB Campus, 11

th

November 2008

10:3

0

(2)

OUTLINE



Historical Data of Flood in Jakarta



Vulnerable Areas of Flood in Jakarta



Cause of Flood in Jakarta:

- Tide Activity

- Shipment Flood



Accumulation of Floods in Jakarta



Adaptation to impact of Climate Change in Jakarta



Extended Area Research on West Java

(3)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1621 1654 1918 1942 1976 1996 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

F re q u e n c y

Historical Data of Flood in Jakarta

Source : Flood Report of Department of Public Work, 2007 Flood Information of LAPAN, 2008

(4)

Banjir Jakarta Saat ini

VULNERABLE AREA OF FLOOD IN JAKARTA

Source : Department of Public Work, 2007

78 Points of

Inundated

(5)

VULNERABLE AREA OF FLOOD FROM RIVER

FLOW

(6)

Causes of Flood in Jakarta



Non Permanent (Short Term)

- Flood in Jakarta is affected by tide activity.

- Flood in Jakarta is caused by “Shipment Flood”.



Permanent (Long Term)

- Flood is caused by Sea Level Rise.



Extremely event

(7)

Flood in Jakarta as

(8)

0 Penjaringan Pademangan

Tanjung Priok Koja

Cilincing

Soekarno-Hatta Airport Monumen Nasional

(9)

1

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(10)

2

Cilincing

(11)

4

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(12)

5

Cilincing

(13)

6

Cilincing

(14)

7

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(15)

8

Cilincing

(16)

9

Cilincing

(17)

10

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(18)

11

Cilincing

(19)

12

Cilincing

(20)

13

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(21)

14

Cilincing

(22)

15

Cilincing

(23)

16

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(24)

17

Cilincing

(25)

18

Cilincing

(26)

19

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(27)

20

Cilincing

(28)

21

Cilincing

(29)

22

Penjaringan Pademangan

Cilincing

(30)

23

(31)

24

(32)

1. Land Subsidence

(33)

Cakung Cilincing Kalideres Penjaringan Koja Cilandak Makasar Kembangan Duren Sawit Tebet Tanjung Priok Cengkareng Cipayung Kebon Jeruk Kramatjati Pasar Minggu Pulo Gadung Kebayoran Lama Kelapa Gading Gambir Jatinegara Setiabudi Kebayoran BAru Pesanggrahan Palmerah Pancoran Menteng Pademangan Kemayoran Tanah Abang Senen Tambora Grogol Petamburan Matraman Mampang Prapatan Sawah Besar Taman Sari Cempaka Putih Kebayoran Baru N E W S

2 0 2 4 Km

PETA PENURUNAN MUKAN TANAH TAHUN 1982-1997

KETERANGAN :

Wilayah DKI Jakarta Penurunan Muka Tanah (Meter) :

0.012 - 0.024 0.024 - 0.036 0.036 - 0.048 0.048 - 0.06 0.06 - 0.072 0.072 - 0.084 0.084 - 0.096 0.096 - 0.108 0.108 - 0.12 No Data Sungai

Administrasi Kecamatan

Map of Land Subsidence (1982-1997)

(34)

Trend of Land Subsidence

in Jakarta

Source

: Priyambodo, 2005

-78

-76

-72

-68

-62

-55

-41

-26

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tahun

P

en

ur

un

an

t

an

ah

(

cm

)

Trend factor



0.8

cm/year

(35)

1. Land Subsidence

Causes of Tidal Wave (ROB) Flood

:

(36)

Raifall in Jakarta will be increase caused by

(37)

Historical Data of Temperature

(38)

(39)

(40)

(41)

(42)

(43)

(44)

(45)

(46)

(47)

(48)

(49)

(50)

(51)

(52)

(53)

(54)

(55)

(56)

(57)

(58)

(59)

(60)

(61)

(62)

(63)

(64)

Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2005)



Increase of rainfall is

occurred in rain season

(

January

) over Jakarta

region during period of

1996-2005.



The increase is range of

20-200 mm

.



The highest increase of

the region is

Pulogadung.



Potency of flood

(65)



Period of Transition

Season (

March

) will be

increase of rainfall in

high level

over Jakarta

and its surroundings.



The increase will be

range of

60-540 mm.



South Jakarta to Bogor

are region which have

high increase of rainfall.



Most of Shipment Flood

(66)



The projection in rain

season (

January

) from

1996 to 2035 shows

increase of rainfall in

North Jakarta Region

.



The increase is range of

10 – 110 mm

.



Potency of huge food will

be occurred in North

Jakarta.

(67)



There is increase of

rainfall about

50 –

550 mm

in

South

Jakarta region

to

Bogor.

(

For transition period

-

March

)



Potency of food in

South Jakarta is

“shipment food”

from Bogor Region.

(68)

(69)

Projection of

Rainfall over

Jakarta

(January

2015

)

Maximum Rainfall is

360 mm.

In South Region of

Jakarta

(70)

Maximum Rainfall is

360 mm.

In South of Jakarta

(

Slowly spread towards North)

Source : Susandi et al., 2006

Projection of

Rainfall over

Jakarta

(71)

Projection of

Rainfall over

Jakarta

(January

2025

)

Maximum Rainfall is

370 mm.

In South of Jakarta

(72)

Projection of

Rainfall over

Jakarta

(January

2030

)

Maximum Rainfall is

370 mm.

In South of Jakarta

(73)

Projection of

Rainfall over

Jakarta

(January

2035

)

Maximum Rainfall is

380 mm.

In South of Jakarta

(74)

Permanent Flood in Jakarta

is Caused by

(75)

Global Sea Level Rise 1880 – 2000 (IPCC, 2003)

(76)

Trend of Sea Level Rise

in Jakarta

Source

: Meliana, 2005

94.31

51.19

123.06

108.69

65.56

79.94

0

35

70

105

140

1925

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Year

M

ea

n

S

ea

L

ev

el

(c

m

)

(77)

Sea level rise causes water to pass over dike.

If tidal wave occur, water will be overflow

to land area.

(78)

200

5

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

(79)

201

0

Tanjung

Priok

Cilincin

g

(80)

201

5

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

(81)

202

0

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

(82)

202

5

Penjaring

an

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

(83)

203

0

Penjaring

an

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

Soekarno-Hatta Airport

(84)

203

5

Penjaring

an

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

(85)

204

0

Penjaring

an

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

(86)

204

5

Penjaring

an

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

(87)

205

0

Penjaring

an

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

(88)

205

0

Penjaring

an

Pademang

an

Tanjung

Priok

Koj

a

Cilincin

g

Soekarno-Hatta Airport Monumen Nasional? (2080?)

North

Water will inundate

Jakarta region as area

±

160,4 km

2

(

24,3% Area of Jakarta

)

in 2050

(89)

(90)

(91)

46.81

48.69

55.05

63.64

41.58

33.64

57.43

76.83

91.35

35.70

38.38

54.44

79.28

156.13

160.37

0

45

90

135

180

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Tahun

T

ot

al

L

ua

s

G

en

an

ga

n

(K

m

2

)

Skenario Min

Skenario Rata-rata

Skenario Max

Projection of Inundated Area

in Jakarta

(92)

Total Loss of Economic Sector in Jakarta

Caused by Sea Level Rise

(93)

Flood which is frequently occurred in Jakarta is caused by

increasing of rainfall

,

sea level rise

, and

tidal wave

.

(94)

(95)

Adaptation to be conducted



Planting

Mangrove



Building

Seawall

(Water Resist Wall)



Utilizing water abundant from South Area as

main water resource in Jakarta

(96)

ILUSTRATION

Mangrove

Seawall

Water Resource

Polder

(97)

Extended Area to West Java

(98)

Land Use Change and Climate

Change

(99)

Flow Chart

of The Research

Satellite Image Landsat TM 8 Band Image Satellite Landsat TM 3 Band Ground Types Map Groundwater Calculation NDVI Projection

Land Use Map Map of Land use

projection NDVI Calculation Image Digitation Image Classification PROJECTION MAP

Direct Runoff, Baseflow, Temperature & Rainfall

Climate Data

Overlay of Land Use Map – Types of

Ground

(100)

Land Use Map

Rajamandala

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

Curug

CIRANJANG

Cirata

(101)

(102)

(103)

(104)

(105)

(106)

(107)

(108)

(109)

(110)

(111)

Direct Runoff

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

Curug

CIRANJANG

(112)

Direct Runoff

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

Curug

CIRANJANG

(113)

Baseflow

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

Curug

CIRANJANG

(114)

Baseflow

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

Curug

CIRANJANG

(115)

Flood Vulnerable Region

PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum

Curug

CIRANJANG

(116)

(117)

Indramayu

Subang

(118)

(119)

2010

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(120)

2015

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(121)

2020

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(122)

2030

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(123)

2040

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(124)

2050

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(125)

2060

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(126)

2070

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(127)

2080

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(128)

2090

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(129)

2100

Indramayu

Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

Inundated area = 1,63 km

2

(130)

(131)

2010

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(132)

2015

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(133)

2020

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(134)

2030

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(135)

2040

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(136)

2050

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(137)

2060

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(138)

2070

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(139)

2080

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(140)

2090

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(141)

2100

Legonkulon

Pamanukan

Pusakanagara

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

(142)

(143)

Impacts Responses Adaptation Mitigation Climate change and variability

The Objective of adaptation:

-

For better planning in considering climate condition

(climate change) in order to reach sustainable

development (e.g. water resource management,

agriculture)

-

To reduce possibilty of disaster occurrence caused of

climate (e.g. flood, drought, forest fire, landslide)

Types of climate data

needs to assess the

impact:

- Long term mean climate

change (

exposure’s mean

change

)