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KLBF Flat Growth Ahead 2018504 NHKS Company Report (English)

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Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer Price date as of May 02, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,785/1,400

Kalbe Farma, Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)

2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

Sales 19,374 20,182 21,034 21,926

KLBF’s sales grew by 2.4% from IDR4.89 trillion in 1Q17 into IDR5.01 trillion in 1Q18. The growth was boosted by the sales growth of 3.6%, 2.1%, 2.8%, and 0.5% respectively posted by the prescription drugs, the nutritional food, the distribution, and the consumer health.

Lowest Sales Growth by the Nutritional Food

Based on the Nielsen Retail data, the sales volume of dairy powder in

Indonesia edged down 2.5% from 203 million tons in 2016 into 198

million tons in 2017. We estimate that the downtrend likely impacted on

the nutritional food. Of note, the nutritional food posted the 1Q18 growth of 2.1% the last-5-year-lowest growth.

Partnership Obligatory

Based on the government regulation Number 26/Permentan/ PK.450/7/2017 Article 23 & 24 on Dairy Supplies and Distribution, the

We use an estimate of forward of P/E of 30.8x (the 3-year average) as the

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Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals

A Glance at KLBF

Established in 1966, KLBF has marked a tremendous development from a modest business in a garage to the leading pharmaceutical producer in Indonesia. Not only does KLBF penetrate into ASEAN, Nigeria, and South Africa’s markets but it also becomes a

national-health-product producer competently competing in the export market.

Undergoing an organic growth, mergers, and acquisitions, KLBF has grown and

transformed into an integrated-health-solution provider through its four business groups:

the Prescription Pharmaceutical Division (23% contribution), the Consumer Health Division (17% contribution), the Nutritional Division (29% contribution), and the Distribution and Logistics Division (30% contribution).

KLBF’s Competitiveness in the Asia Pacific

KLBF has the fourth-biggest dividend yield after China Medical System Holding, Shenzen

Salubris, and Zhejiang. Although it has the lowest net profit margin, it has a high ROE reaching 17.2%. Its relatively high valuation makes it a top pick if any price correction is carried on further.

Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

Company Market Cap

(USD mn)

Total Asset

(USD mn) Net Profit Growth Net Profit Margin ROE P/E P/BV Dividend Yield

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Source: Company, NHKS Research

Consumer Health y-y Sales Growth | 2014 - 2018

Source: Company, NHKS Research

Prescription Drugs y-y Sales Growth | 2014 - 2018

Source: Company, NHKS Research

KLBF Sales Breakdown | FY2017

Source: Company, NHKS Research

Distribution y-y Sales Growth | 2014 - 2018

Source: Company, NHKS Research

Nutritional Food y-y Sales Growth | 2014 - 2018

Source: Company, NHKS Research

KLBF Gross Profit Breakdown | FY2017

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Multiple Valuation

Forward P/E band | Last 3 years

Source: NHKS research

Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 3 years

Source: NHKS research

Rating and target price update

Target Price Revision

Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

05/10/2017 Buy 1,860 (Dec 2017) 1,515 1,695 +22.8% +9.7% 09/18/2017 Buy 2,020 (Dec 2018) 1,725 1,812 +17.1% +11.5% 12/15/2017 Buy 2,020 (Dec 2018) 1,695 1,711 +19.2% +18.0% 05/04/2018 Hold 1,730 (Dec 2018) 1,515 1,647 +14.2% +5.0% Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg

Closing and Target Price

Source: NHKS research

Analyst Coverage Rating

Source: Bloomberg

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

1. Period: End of year target price

2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication

 Buy : Greater than +15%

 Hold : -15% to +15%

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Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees, and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom.

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