Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
Yesterday, September 27 2018, yield of US 10-years flat at 3.06%. On the other hand, global benchmark bond yield moved downward after investor shifting from Italian bond market because of worsening Italia budget deficit. This movement was indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German Bunds, which fell to 1.57% and 0.46%.
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada Jum’at, 28 September ditutup datar di level 3,06%. Pada pasar obligasi global, mayoritas yield acuan global ditutup turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bunds yang ditutup turun ke level 1,57% dan 0,46% akibat berpindahnya investor dari pasar obligasi Italia setelah realisasi penerimaan anggaran pemerintah mereka yang mengecewakan.
Domestic Market Update
Government will issue IDR 4trillion of Islamic government securities (SBSN) or Sukuk tomorrow, October 02. There are 6 auctioned SBSN; SPN-S Rupiah appreciation tendency. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,849 - 14,901 and yield of 10-years benchmark bond (FR0064) will be rang-ing from 8.07% - 8.13%.
Pada hari Selasa, 02 Oktober 2018, pemerintah akan mengadakan lelang Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) atau Sukuk dengan target Rp 4 triliun. Adapun sekunder diprediksi cenderung masih akan menguat terbatas yang didorong oleh perkiraan apresiasi Rupiah di hari ini. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.849 – Rp14.901, sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 8,07% - 8,13%.
Maturities (Year) 28-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0063 91.26 7.92 3198 ADMF04CCN3 idAAA 100.05 8.48 400
FR0064 87.76 7.97 1788 MEDC03ACN2 idA+ 100.00 10.47 291
FR0070 101.42 6.84 1669 WSKT03ACN3 A-(idn) 100.00 9.00 227
FR0077 101.10 7.88 1428 MEDC03ACN1 idA+ 100.00 8.61 200
FR0075 90.50 8.50 1302 WSKT03BCN3 A-(idn) 99.20 9.96 150
FR0056 101.20 8.17 1129 BEXI04ACN2 idAAA 100.12 6.86 149
FR0078 102.95 7.00 1100 SMFP04ACN4 idAAA 98.62 8.25 140
SPN12190411 96.87 6.05 744 ISAT02ACN3 idAAA 98.97 5.20 126
FR0065 86.50 8.23 619 ASDF04ACN1 AAA(idn) 98.40 5.34 100
FR0031 106.55 7.59 610 NISP03ACN1 idAAA 100.17 6.53 100
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 28-Sep
Indonesia (JCI) 5977 47.34 0.80% -5.96% 28-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1793 -5.49 -0.31% -0.20% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1756 3.46 0.20% 0.15% Fed Fund Rate 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00
Singapore (STI) 3257 20.79 0.64% -4.3% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49
Hang Seng 27789 72.85 0.26% -7.1% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76
Nikkei 225 24120 323.30 1.36% 5.95% 10-Year 3.06 3.05 3.06 2.86
Shanghai 2821 29.57 1.06% -14.69% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07
Dow Jones (DJIA) 26458 18.38 0.07% 7.04% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7510 -35.24 -0.47% -2.31% UK 1.57 1.60 1.55 1.43
DAX 12247 -188.86 -1.52% -5.2% Germany 0.47 0.53 0.46 0.33
France 0.80 0.84 0.78 0.68
FX Rate 28-Sep China 3.62 3.63 3.68 3.58
28-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.12 0.11 0.13 0.10
USD/IDR 14,901 14,920 14,852 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
GBP/USD 1.303 1.308 1.308 Thailand 2.81 2.81 2.85 2.74
USD/JPY 113.7 113.4 112.6 Malaysia 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.04
USD/SGD 1.367 1.368 1.364 Singapore 2.49 2.50 2.55 2.37
USD/THB 32.33 32.42 32.44 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.139 4.137 4.133 INDO-22 3.87 3.87 3.91 3.75
INDO-27 4.51 4.52 4.52 4.35
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.09 5.12 5.15 4.89
Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.05 0.28 0.59 Money Market 28-Sep
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.20 3.18 3.12 28-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.90 2.87 2.72 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.50 5.25 5.25 O/N 5.65 5.40 5.44 5.40
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 117.9 118.3 119.8 1M 6.99 6.74 6.70 6.70
3M 7.35 7.14 7.13 7.12
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.23 2.23 2.18 2.08
28-Sep 59.02 130.28 210.47 3M 2.38 2.38 2.35 2.31
(-1 Day) 62.17 131.35 207.67 6M 2.60 2.60 2.57 2.53
(-1 Week) 59.52 132.62 211.54 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 46.76 127.33 208.83 Deposit 1M 5.98 6.01 5.91 5.83
(-1 Year) 42.20 104.05 172.79 Lending 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6
Benchmark 28-Sep (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 96.99 96.90 10 7.97%
FR0059 92.73 92.21 53 8.19%
FR0074 92.43 92.34 9 8.44%
FR0072 97.63 97.35 28 8.51%
Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of September 27, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 24-Sep-18 25-Sep-18 26-Sep-18 27-Sep-18 Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 603.06 601.05 600.61 631.48 Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 117.57 118.94 119.67 102.72 Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 117.26 117.02 117.05 117.73 Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 191.47 191.55 191.58 191.59 Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 843.82 844.69 844.47 849.43 Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 215.39 215.43 215.36 215.66 Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 64.26 64.29 64.26 64.27 Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 133.82 133.68 133.65 133.75 Total 995.25 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,286.64 2,286.64 2,286.64 2,306.64
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 28-Sep-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.55
7.875%
100.52
6.86%
100.50
2.5
FR0036
15-Sep-19
0.96
11.500%
103.87
7.22%
103.85
1.5
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.13
11.000%
106.61
7.56%
106.48
12.7
FR0034
15-Jun-21
2.72
12.800%
112.16
7.72%
111.83
33.3
FR0053
15-Jul-21
2.80
8.250%
101.07
7.81%
100.98
8.6
FR0061
15-May-22
3.63
7.000%
96.99
7.97%
96.90
9.8
FR0035
15-Jun-22
3.72
12.900%
114.99
8.12%
115.05
-5.5
FR0043
15-Jul-22
3.80
10.250%
106.76
8.13%
106.70
5.9
FR0063
15-May-23
4.63
5.625%
90.94
8.01%
90.50
43.5
FR0046
15-Jul-23
4.80
9.500%
105.44
8.10%
105.08
36.5
FR0039
15-Aug-23
4.88
11.750%
114.49
8.09%
113.99
50.6
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.47
8.375%
100.49
8.26%
100.48
0.7
FR0044
15-Sep-24
5.97
10.000%
108.58
8.15%
107.99
58.7
FR0040
15-Sep-25
6.97
11.000%
114.66
8.19%
114.26
40.0
FR0037
15-Sep-26
7.97
12.000%
121.33
8.29%
121.33
0.0
FR0056
15-Sep-26
7.97
8.375%
101.17
8.17%
101.19
-2.1
FR0059
15-May-27
8.63
7.000%
92.73
8.19%
92.21
52.6
FR0042
15-Jul-27
8.80
10.250%
111.75
8.33%
111.75
0.0
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.39
10.000%
110.90
8.30%
110.90
0.0
FR0064
15-May-28
9.64
6.125%
86.92
8.11%
86.66
26.1
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.47
9.000%
104.88
8.29%
104.66
21.8
FR0052
15-Aug-30
11.89
10.500%
115.00
8.47%
115.00
0.0
FR0073
15-May-31
12.64
8.750%
102.56
8.42%
101.13
142.7
FR0054
15-Jul-31
12.80
9.500%
108.75
8.37%
108.33
42.5
FR0058
15-Jun-32
13.72
8.250%
98.00
8.50%
98.00
0.0
FR0074
15-Aug-32
13.89
7.500%
92.43
8.44%
92.34
8.6
FR0065
15-May-33
14.64
6.625%
85.78
8.32%
85.57
20.6
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.47
8.375%
99.18
8.47%
98.87
30.4
FR0072
15-May-36
17.64
8.250%
97.63
8.51%
97.35
27.6
FR0045
15-May-37
18.64
9.750%
106.73
8.93%
107.324
-59.2
FR0075
15-May-38
19.64
7.500%
90.26
8.53%
89.52
74.7
FR0050
15-Jul-38
19.81
10.500%
115.02
8.87%
115.02
0.0
FR0057
15-May-41
22.64
9.500%
105.90
8.89%
105.90
0.0
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.56
6.375%
75.02
8.93%
75.02
0.0
FR0067
15-Jul-43
24.81
8.750%
98.98
8.85%
98.71
26.9
FR0076
15-May-48
29.65
7.375%
83.46
9.20%
82.73
73.2
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (October 01 - October 05 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection
01 Inflation Rate (MoM) Sep-18 - 3.20% 3.33%
01 Inflation Rate (YoY) Sep-18 - -0.05% 0.26%
04 Consumer Confidence Sep-18 - 121.6 122.2
01 Core Inflation Rate (YoY) Sep-18 - 2.90% 3.00%
05 Foreign Exchange Reserves Sep-18 - USD 117.9 billion USD 117.5 billion
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
01 Unemployment Rate Euro Area Aug-18 - 8.2% 8.2%
01 ISM Manufacturing PMI US Sep-18 - 61.3 59.0
03 ADP Employment Change US Sep-18 - 163 thousand 193 thousand
03 Crude Oil Inventory US Sep 28 - 2018 Week Ended, - 1.85 million barrel -0.66 million barrel
04 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Sep 29-2018 - 214 thousand 212 thousand
04 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Sep 22-2018 - 1661 thousand 1651 thousand
05 Balance of Trade US Aug-18 - USD -50.1 billion USD -50.3 billion
05 Non-Farm Payrolls US Sep-18 - 201 thousand 195 thousand
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This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.
