Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
At Tuesday, May 15, US Treasury yield was climbed up to 3.07%, highest yield since July 2011. This increasing was caused by retail sales data, which indicate that economy could growth even further. This indication made investors expected that The Fed would implemented hawkish policy for Fed Funds Rate. On the other hand, because of slowing Germany economic growth, majority of global benchmark bond closed increasing, UK gilt yield climbed up to 1.52% and German Bund yield climbed up to 0.64%.
Pada perdagangan 15 Mei 2018, yield US 10-year Treasury mencatatkan angka 3,07%, tertinggi sejak Juli 2011. Kenaikan yang signifikan ini didorong oleh rilis data retail sales bulan April sebesar 0,3% serta revisi data pertumbuhan Retail Sales bulan Maret menjadi 0,8%. Pertumbuhan Retail Sales yang signifikan itu memberikan sinyal bahwa perekonomian dapat tumbuh lebih tinggi lagi, dan kembali meyakinkan investor bahwa The Fed akan cenderung hawkish dalam penentuan tingkat suku bunga. Di sisi lain, akibat pertumbuhan ekonomi Jerman yang cenderung melambat dibanding perkiraan, yield obligasi benchmark global ditutup mengalami kenaikan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt ditutup naik ke level 1,52% dan yield 10 tahun German Bund ditutup naik ke level 0,64%.Domestic Market Update
Yesterday, May 16 2018, The government absorbed IDR 4.09 trillion in the last Islamic Government Bonds (Sukuk) auction from total incoming bids IDR 9.11 trillion. The amount was higher than government’s target at IDR 4 trillion. Moreover, incoming bids posted higher level than last auction. At that auction, PBS017 series became series that failed to won. On the other Rupiah depreciation possibility amidst of investor that may wait for the result of RDG tomorrow . Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 13,977—14,052, while yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.04% - 7.15%.
Kemarin, 15 Mei 2018, pemerintah berhasil menyerap Rp 4,06 triliun dana dari investor dalam lelang Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) kemarin dengan tingkat penawaran yang masuk (incoming bids) mencapai Rp 9,11 triliun. Jumlah dana yang diserap berada di atas target minimum pemerintah sebesar Rp 4 triliun. Jumlah incoming bids pada lelang kemarin juga jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan lelang SBSN sebelumnya yang mencapai Rp 5,93 triliun. Dalam lelang tersebut, seri PBS017 menjadi seri yang gagal dimenangkan. Sementara itu, seri SPNS03112018 kembali menjadi seri yang paling banyak diminati oleh investor dengan tingkat penawaran yang masuk mencapai Rp 4,17 triliun.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat naiknya yield AS ke level tertinggi pada penutupan kemarin serta kemungkinan terdepresiasinya Rupiah di tengah menunggunya investor atas hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) BI pada esok hari. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.057 – Rp14.122Maturities (Year) 15-May (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0056 106.75 7.28 1935 BTPN03BCN2 AAA(idn) 100.24 7.39 225
FR0075 100.50 7.45 1353 WSKT03ACN2 A-(idn) 101.40 7.18 74
FR0064 93.30 7.07 995 MYOR01CN3 idAA 97.94 8.67 66
FR0074 98.75 7.64 712 BBIA01CCN1 AAA(idn) 102.54 7.42 60
FR0061 100.70 6.80 705 PNBN02CN3 idAA 100.50 7.47 60
FR0070 106.35 7.02 546 SANF02BCN1 idAA- 101.65 7.37 58
FR0069 101.38 6.28 545 BBIA01BCN1 AAA(idn) 102.2 6.48 50
FR0072 104.50 7.78 520 BEXI03BCN2 idAAA 101.79 6.47 40
FR0065 92.25 7.49 460 FIFA03ACN2 idAAA 99.98 6.54 40
FR0063 95.60 6.68 418 ISAT01BCN1 idAAA 102.99 8.33 32
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 15-May
Indonesia (JCI) 5838 -109.04 -1.83% -8.14% 15-May (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1848 -2.22 -0.12% 2.86% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1767 -6.24 -0.35% 0.75% Fed Fund Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Singapore (STI) 3540 -22.23 -0.62% 4.0% 2-Year 2.576 2.550 2.51 2.40
Hang Seng 31152 -389.05 -1.23% 4.1% 5-Year 2.919 2.863 2.82 2.69
Nikkei 225 22818 -47.84 -0.21% 0.23% 10-Year 3.073 3.00 2.98 2.83
Shanghai 3192 18.09 0.57% -3.48% 30-Year 3.20 3.14 3.13 3.02
Dow Jones (DJIA) 24706 -193.00 -0.78% -0.05% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7723 12.00 0.16% 0.46% UK 1.515 1.470 1.44 1.44
DAX 12970 -7.67 -0.06% 0.4% Germany 0.643 0.609 0.56 0.51
France 0.86 0.83 0.80 0.73
FX Rate 15-May China 3.71 3.70 3.68 3.65
15-May (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.052 0.045 0.05 0.04
USD/IDR 14,092 14,005 14,052 Korea 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.65
GBP/USD 1.351 1.356 1.355 Thailand 2.59 2.54 2.53 2.40
USD/JPY 110.4 109.7 109.1 Malaysia 4.13 4.15 4.12 4.00
USD/SGD 1.345 1.336 1.340 Singapore 2.63 2.58 2.61 2.37
USD/THB 32.13 31.91 31.94 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 3.956 3.951 3.991 INDO-22 3.86 3.85 4.03 3.49
INDO-27 4.44 4.39 4.61 4.06
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.11 5.08 5.33 4.79
Apr-18 Mar-18 Feb-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.10 0.20 0.17 Money Market 15-May
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.41 3.4 3.18 15-May (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.69 2.67 2.58 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 4.25 4.25 O/N 4.03 4.06 4.10 4.04
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 124.9 126 128 1M 6.06 6.05 5.93 5.06
3M 6.20 6.16 6.08 5.37
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.90
15-May 45.49 120.52 196.23 3M 2.33 2.33 2.35 2.36
(-1 Day) 45.72 112.65 190.54 6M 2.50 2.50 2.52 2.50
(-1 Week) 52.42 129.83 207.82 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 36.94 96.10 165.10 Deposit 1M 5.54 5.51 5.50 5.51
(-1 Year) 50.15 126.93 195.19 Lending 13.9 13.9 14.1 13.8
Benchmark 15-May (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 100.82 100.79 2 6.76%
FR0059 98.77 98.85 -8 7.19%
FR0074 98.97 99.09 -12 7.62%
FR0072 104.77 105.11 -33 7.75%
Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield
Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of May 14, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8-May-18 9-May-18 11-May-18 14-May-18
Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 537.16 536.70 534.37 532.76 Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 145.36 149.58 149.03 150.52 Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 106.2 107.5 107.8 108.0 Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 168.9 168.9 169.1 169.5
Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 842.07 836.76 833.79 828.15
Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 211.56 211.66 211.82 211.85 Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 60.92 60.92 60.94 60.97 Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 125.62 125.71 125.59 125.64
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 15-May-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0032
15-Jul-18
0.17
15.000%
101.83
3.54%
102.15
-32.2
FR0038
15-Aug-18
0.25
11.600%
101.40
5.72%
101.40
0.0
FR0048
15-Sep-18
0.34
9.000%
101.54
4.26%
101.54
0.0
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.92
7.875%
101.30
6.38%
101.33
-2.5
FR0036
15-Sep-19
1.34
11.500%
106.33
6.44%
106.11
21.9
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.51
11.000%
109.91
6.62%
109.38
53.9
FR0034
15-Jun-21
3.09
12.800%
116.41
6.80%
116.34
6.4
FR0053
15-Jul-21
3.17
8.250%
104.30
6.71%
104.39
-8.7
FR0061
15-May-22
4.00
7.000%
100.82
6.76%
100.79
2.2
FR0035
15-Jun-22
4.09
12.900%
121.13
6.87%
120.84
29.0
FR0043
15-Jul-22
4.17
10.250%
111.93
6.90%
111.78
15.1
FR0063
15-May-23
5.00
5.625%
95.37
6.73%
95.22
14.8
FR0046
15-Jul-23
5.17
9.500%
111.04
6.92%
109.19
185.7
FR0039
15-Aug-23
5.25
11.750%
120.75
6.96%
118.94
181.2
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.84
8.375%
106.13
7.07%
105.87
25.4
FR0044
15-Sep-24
6.34
10.000%
114.47
7.12%
113.96
51.2
FR0040
15-Sep-25
7.34
11.000%
121.41
7.19%
121.50
-9.5
FR0037
15-Sep-26
8.34
12.000%
129.17
7.27%
128.43
74.3
FR0056
15-Sep-26
8.34
8.375%
106.93
7.25%
107.00
-7.4
FR0059
15-May-27
9.01
7.000%
98.77
7.19%
98.85
-8.1
FR0042
15-Jul-27
9.17
10.250%
119.78
7.25%
119.79
-1.0
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.76
10.000%
118.99
7.25%
117.58
141.8
FR0064
15-May-28
10.01
6.125%
93.54
7.04%
93.49
5.6
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.84
9.000%
112.28
7.34%
112.58
-30.5
FR0052
15-Aug-30
12.26
10.500%
123.98
7.48%
124.19
-21.4
FR0073
15-May-31
13.01
8.750%
110.05
7.52%
110.32
-26.9
FR0054
15-Jul-31
13.18
9.500%
115.94
7.57%
116.28
-33.7
FR0058
15-Jun-32
14.10
8.250%
105.51
7.61%
105.36
15.3
FR0074
15-Aug-32
14.26
7.500%
98.97
7.62%
99.09
-11.9
FR0065
15-May-33
15.01
6.625%
92.17
7.50%
92.31
-14.4
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.84
8.375%
106.41
7.67%
106.20
21.0
FR0072
15-May-36
18.01
8.250%
104.77
7.75%
105.11
-33.4
FR0045
15-May-37
19.01
9.750%
123.70
7.41%
123.702
0.0
FR0075
15-May-38
138.47
7.500%
98.67
7.63%
98.53
14.1
FR0050
15-Jul-38
20.18
10.500%
127.27
7.79%
127.39
-11.3
FR0057
15-May-41
23.02
9.500%
117.63
7.83%
117.57
5.9
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.93
6.375%
85.10
7.75%
85.10
0.0
FR0067
15-Jul-43
25.18
8.750%
112.35
7.64%
112.35
0.0
FR0076
15-May-48
30.02
7.375%
94.23
7.83%
97.26
-303.2
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (May, 14 - 18 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics and Bloomberg (2018)
INDONESIA
Date
Indicator
Series Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
15
Balance of Trade
Apr-18 -1.63 billion USD 1.09 billion USD -0.09 billion USD
17
7-Days (Reverse) Repo Rate
Apr-18
-
4.25%
4.5%
18
Loan Growth (YoY)
Apr-18
-
8.54%
-
GLOBAL
Date
Indicator
Country
Series Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
15
Unemployment Rate
Kingdom
United
Mar-18
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
15 Zew Economic Senti-
ment Index
Germany
May-18
-8.2
-8.2
-8.0
15
Retail Sales (MoM)
US
Apr-18
0.3%
0.8%
0.3%
16
Crude Oil Inventory
US
May 11 - 2018
Week Ended,
-
-2.2 million barrel -0.7 million barrel
16 GDP Growth Annualized
Prelim
Japan
1st Quarter
-
1.6%
-0.2%
16
Inflation Rate Final
(YoY)
Euro Area
Apr-18
-
1.3%
1.2%
17 Initial Jobless Claims
US
May 12-2018
Week Ended,
-
211 thousand
216 thousand
17
Continuing Jobless
Claims
US
April 05- 2018
Week Ended,
-
1790 thousand
1778 thousand
PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790
DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.
