Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
At Friday, October 05 2018, yield of US 10-years rose to 3.23%, which were pushed by tightening labor market expectation because US unemployment rate fell to the lowest rate in 69 years. Global benchmark bond yield also moved upward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German Bunds which rose to 1.72% and 0.57%, respectively.
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada Jum’at, 05 Okto-ber ditutup naik ke level 3,23% yang didorong oleh ekspektasi pengetatan pasar tenaga kerja seiring den-gan turunnya tingkat penden-gangguran ke level terendah. Sejalan dengan hal tersebut, pada pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global mayoritas ditutup mengalami kenai-kan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bunds yang naik ke level 1,72% dan 0,57%.
Domestic Market Update
Government will issue IDR 10—20 trillion of government securities tomorrow, October 09. There are 6 auctioned government securities; SPN03190110 (New Issuance), SPN12191010 (New Issuance), FR0077 (Reopening), FR0078 (Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), and FR0075 (Reopening).
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken as higher US yield in
the Friday. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 15,188 - 15,332 and yield of 10-years benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 8.31% - 8.48%.
Pada hari Selasa, 09 Oktober 2018, pemerintah akan mengadakan lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) dengan target Rp 10 - 20 triliun. Adapun seri SUN yang akan dilelang ialah SPN03190110 (New Issuance), SPN12191010 (New Issuance), FR0077 (Reopening), FR0078 (Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), dan FR0075 (Reopening).
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi masih akan cenderung melemah akibat kenaikan yield AS pada hari Jum’at. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp 15.188 – Rp 15.332, sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 8,31% - 8,48%.
6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 15 20 30 Y iel d (% ) Maturities (Year)
4-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year) 4-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
01 7.36 7.37 7.45 7.38 02 7.67 7.66 7.76 7.21 03 8.07 7.80 7.92 7.90 04 8.10 7.90 8.06 8.03 05 8.25 8.05 8.18 8.14 06 8.32 8.07 8.06 7.89 07 8.49 8.32 8.32 8.35 08 8.28 8.28 8.22 8.40 09 8.58 8.36 8.31 8.39 10 8.46 8.26 8.18 8.32 15 8.44 8.44 8.39 8.49 20 8.87 8.73 8.65 8.85 30 9.16 9.18 9.20 8.58 Source: Bloomberg
Volume Volume (IDR bn) (IDR bn) FR0065 84.80 8.46 1766 PTPP02ACN1 idA+ 100.13 8.07 342 FR0078 99.40 8.33 1028 FIFA03ACN4 idAAA 100.02 6.84 220 FR0069 100.43 6.85 880 BMTR01ACN1 idA+ 100.00 11.13 120 FR0056 99.50 8.46 800 BAFI02A idAA 99.96 5.25 110 FR0070 100.00 8.37 589 ADMF04CCN3 idAAA 100.00 8.50 100 FR0053 100.72 7.95 582 FIFA02BCN3 idAAA 100.67 8.64 83 PBS013 99.25 7.46 530 BMLK02C A(idn) 100.48 7.36 80 FR0064 85.75 8.31 510 PNBN02CN3 idAA 96.60 6.42 79 FR0071 102.30 8.66 352 MEDC03ACN2 idA+ 100.05 9.48 70 FR0061 96.65 8.09 322 BBRI02BCN2 idAAA 99.72 7.54 55
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 5-Oct Indonesia (JCI) 5732 -24.68 -0.43% -9.81% 5-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1777 -12.96 -0.72% -1.09% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1721 -8.88 -0.51% -1.89% Fed Fund Rate 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3210 -21.80 -0.67% -5.7% 2-Year 2.89 2.87 2.82 2.71 Hang Seng 26573 -51.30 -0.19% -11.2% 5-Year 3.07 3.05 2.95 2.82 Nikkei 225 23784 -191.90 -0.80% 4.48% 10-Year 3.23 3.19 3.06 2.94 Shanghai 2821 0.00 0.00% -14.69% 30-Year 3.41 3.35 3.21 3.10 Dow Jones (DJIA) 26447 -180.43 -0.68% 6.99% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7319 -99.80 -1.35% -4.80% UK 1.72 1.67 1.57 1.46 DAX 12112 -132.24 -1.08% -6.2% Germany 0.57 0.53 0.47 0.39
France 0.90 0.87 0.80 0.72
FX Rate 5-Oct China 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.63
5-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.11 USD/IDR 15,260 15,243 14,901 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.311 1.302 1.303 Thailand 2.86 2.87 2.81 2.75 USD/JPY 113.7 113.9 113.7 Malaysia 4.10 4.12 4.06 4.14 USD/SGD 1.383 1.381 1.367 Singapore 2.59 2.59 2.49 2.39 USD/THB 32.82 32.74 32.33 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.147 4.143 4.139 INDO-22 3.97 3.94 3.87 3.92 INDO-27 4.66 4.64 4.51 4.66
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.30 5.27 5.09 5.23
Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.20 -0.05 0.28 Money Market 5-Oct Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.88 3.20 3.18 5-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.82 2.90 2.87 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.75 5.50 5.25 O/N 5.68 5.64 5.65 5.40 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 117.90 118.3 1M 7.03 7.02 6.99 6.70
3M 7.37 7.36 7.35 7.12
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.28 2.28 2.26 2.13
5-Oct 66.71 144.04 217.99 3M 2.41 2.41 2.40 2.33
(-1 Day) 65.66 139.94 218.71 6M 2.62 2.62 2.60 2.54 (-1 Week) 59.02 130.28 210.47 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 64.71 141.32 221.26 Deposit 1M 5.99 5.97 5.98 5.89 (-1 Year) 37.47 100.56 167.24 Lending 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.6
Benchmark 5-Oct (-1 day) Change Yield FR0061 96.84 96.91 -8 8.03% FR0059 91.38 90.92 46 8.43% FR0074 90.83 90.59 24 8.65% FR0072 95.77 95.89 -12 8.72% Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield
Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of October 04, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1-Oct-18 2-Oct-18 3-Oct-18 4-Oct-18 Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 632.41 633.69 648.74 640.89 Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 98.42 93.67 78.59 82.34 Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 117.60 117.27 117.42 116.95 Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 191.61 191.91 191.96 192.02 Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 852.78 856.30 856.16 851.37 Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 215.72 215.68 215.57 216.41 Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 64.34 64.38 64.45 64.39 Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 133.76 133.74 133.74 133.88 Total 995.25 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,306.64 2,306.64 2,306.64 2,298.25 Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 5-Oct-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.53
7.875%
100.46
6.94%
100.51
-5.1
FR0036
15-Sep-19
0.95
11.500%
103.85
0.00%
103.84
1.0
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.12
11.000%
106.64
7.52%
106.63
1.0
FR0034
15-Jun-21
2.70
12.800%
111.87
7.80%
111.91
-4.2
FR0053
15-Jul-21
2.78
8.250%
100.71
7.95%
100.66
5.1
FR0061
15-May-22
3.61
7.000%
96.84
8.03%
96.91
-7.5
FR0035
15-Jun-22
3.70
12.900%
114.99
8.12%
114.99
0.0
FR0043
15-Jul-22
3.78
10.250%
106.39
8.24%
106.63
-24.7
FR0063
15-May-23
4.61
5.625%
90.47
8.15%
90.40
7.5
FR0046
15-Jul-23
4.78
9.500%
104.78
8.26%
104.66
11.7
FR0039
15-Aug-23
4.86
11.750%
113.34
8.34%
113.43
-8.7
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.45
8.375%
101.34
8.06%
101.34
0.0
FR0077
15-May-24
5.61
8.125%
99.31
8.28%
100.42
-110.5
FR0044
15-Sep-24
5.95
10.000%
107.50
8.37%
108.43
-92.9
FR0040
15-Sep-25
6.95
11.000%
113.30
8.43%
113.22
8.2
FR0037
15-Sep-26
7.95
12.000%
120.15
8.46%
120.21
-5.9
FR0056
15-Sep-26
7.95
8.375%
101.02
8.20%
101.03
-0.8
FR0059
15-May-27
8.61
7.000%
91.38
8.43%
90.92
45.9
FR0042
15-Jul-27
8.78
10.250%
110.79
8.48%
110.60
18.8
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.37
10.000%
109.78
8.46%
109.81
-3.4
FR0064
15-May-28
9.62
6.125%
85.70
8.31%
85.32
38.5
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.45
9.000%
103.38
8.50%
103.02
35.8
FR0078
15-May-29
10.62
8.500%
99.32
8.35%
100.42
-110.1
FR0052
15-Aug-30
11.87
10.500%
116.30
8.31%
116.30
0.0
FR0073
15-May-31
12.62
8.750%
102.56
8.42%
102.56
0.0
FR0054
15-Jul-31
12.78
9.500%
106.97
8.59%
106.83
14.1
FR0058
15-Jun-32
13.70
8.250%
95.90
8.77%
95.90
0.0
FR0074
15-Aug-32
13.87
7.500%
90.83
8.65%
90.59
24.0
FR0065
15-May-33
14.62
6.625%
84.69
8.47%
85.34
-64.9
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.45
8.375%
96.93
8.74%
96.37
55.6
FR0072
15-May-36
17.62
8.250%
95.77
8.72%
95.89
-11.9
FR0045
15-May-37
18.62
9.750%
107.33
9.00%
106.701
63.0
FR0075
15-May-38
19.62
7.500%
87.83
8.81%
87.83
0.0
FR0050
15-Jul-38
19.79
10.500%
114.91
8.88%
114.91
-0.3
FR0057
15-May-41
22.62
9.500%
105.25
8.95%
105.25
0.0
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.54
6.375%
72.50
9.27%
72.50
0.0
FR0067
15-Jul-43
24.79
8.750%
98.45
8.90%
98.45
0.0
FR0076
15-May-48
29.63
7.375%
82.49
9.16%
82.49
0.0
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (October 08 - October 12 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series
Data Actual Previous Projection
08 Retail Sales (YoY) Aug-18 - 2.9% 3.0%
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
09 Balance of Trade Germany Aug-18 - EUR 16.5 billion EUR 19.1 billion
10 Balance of Trade United
Kingdom Aug-18 - GBP -0.11 billion GBP -1.80 billion
10 Wholesale Inventories
(MoM) US Aug-18 - 0.6% 0.7%
11 Inflation Rate (YoY) US Sep-18 - 2.7% 2.7%
11 Core Inflation Rate
(YoY) US Sep-18 - 2.2% 2.4%
11 Crude Oil Inventory US Week Ended,
Oct 05- 2018 - 7.98 million barrel -0.33 million barrel 11 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended,
Oct 06-2018 - 207 thousand 209 thousand
11 Continuing Jobless
Claims US
Week Ended,
Sep 22-2018 - 1650 thousand 1644 thousand
12 Balance of Trade China Sep-18 - USD 27.91 billion USD 31.00 billion
12 Inflation Rate Final
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DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
