Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at
http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=cbie20
Download by: [Universitas Maritim Raja Ali Haji] Date: 17 January 2016, At: 23:44
Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
ISSN: 0007-4918 (Print) 1472-7234 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/cbie20
Mathematical Modelling Analyses for Investigating
the Future Expansion of the Electric Power System
in Indonesia
Maxensius Tri Sambodo
To cite this article: Maxensius Tri Sambodo (2013) Mathematical Modelling Analyses for Investigating the Future Expansion of the Electric Power System in Indonesia, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 49:2, 237-238, DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2013.809846
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2013.809846
Published online: 26 Jul 2013.
Submit your article to this journal
Article views: 245
Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 49, No. 2, 2013: 237–41
ISSN 0007-4918 print/ISSN 1472-7234 online/13/020237-5
ABSTRACTS OF DOCTORAL THESES
ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY
Mathematical Modelling Analyses for Investigating the Future Expansion of the Electric Power System in Indonesia
Maxensius Tri Sambodo (maxensius.tri.sambodo@lipi.go.id) Accepted 2012, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo
Indonesia’s expanding electric power system is set to play an important role in the country’s transition to a low-carbon economy. This six-chapter thesis investi-gates Indonesia’s electricity sector before and after the government initiated its fast-track program, in 2006, which sought to add 10,000 megawatts to the national capacity, diversify from oil to coal and ensure the availability of land for new power plants.
Chapter 2 shows that this program will increase the total installed capacity of the system by around 19% by 2014, and that Java–Bali will receive the greatest share (70%) of this capacity. However, most of the additional geothermal power-plant capacity will depend on the government-owned PT PLN (Persero) collabo-rating with independent power producers. Chapter 2 also shows that the index of capacity inequality among regions increased from 1.74 in 2006 to 1.78 in 2009, but that this gap will likely decrease to 1.69 in 2014, in the second fast-track pro-gram (which started in 2010, with the aim of adding another 10,000 megawatts to
the national capacity). Using the diversiication index, however, which measures
changes in the composition of installed capacity among all energy sources, the
study inds that the irst program reduced the index from 1.49 in 2006 to 1.31 in
2009, and that this gap is expected to increase to 1.43 in the second program. In chapter 3, the thesis explores the relationship between the growth of electric-ity consumption in 1971–2007 and the growth of GDP, by applying the Granger causality test, a variance decomposition analysis and the Bayesian
model-aver-aging technique. It inds no causal relationship between the two, however, which
implies that electricity consumption can be reduced with little or no adverse effect on economic growth.
Chapter 4 shows the results of the study’s optimisation modelling analysis of future power-plant expansion in Java–Bali, which was based on investigations of three types of advanced steam-coal technology – subcritical, supercritical and ultrasupercritical. These three types of steam-coal power differ in capacity
cost, eficiency and emissions intensity (ultrasupercritical technology is the most
advanced). The analysis reveals that Indonesia will be able to participate actively in sectoral agreements if new investment in steam-coal power plants is based on ultrasupercritical technology, and it will obtain more credits or revenue from car-bon trading if it takes a gradual approach to reducing its emissions intensity.
238 Abstracts of doctoral theses on the Indonesian economy
In chapter 5, the thesis uses multi-objective optimisation modelling techniques to indicate the trade off between generating costs and CO2 emissions. It argues that Indonesia needs to switch from steam-coal subcritical technology to super-critical and ultrasupersuper-critical technology, which would increase generating costs by less than 2% and, in turn, would reduce the country’s yearly CO2 emissions by almost 7%. The study also shows an inherent squeezing effect in adopting more advanced steam-coal technology, which emphasises the need to promote renew-able energy and gas utilisation. A green-path power system, for example, would allow CO2 emissions and generating costs to increase gradually.
Chapter 6, which comprises conclusions and policy recommendations,
high-lights two main points: irst, that in designing electricity policy, decision makers
need to focus on demand-side management, technology switching, fuel switching
and price incentives that relect service costs; and, second, that power-planning
models need to cover and measure economic and business dimensions, natural resource and environmental dimensions, and social dimensions.
© 2013 Maxensius Tri Sambodo
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2013.809846
The Impacts of Discriminative Trade Arrangements on Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Trade in Southeast Asia during the 1988–2008 Period
Kiki Verico (kikiverico@akane.waseda.jp) Accepted 2013, Waseda University, Tokyo
This thesis observes the impacts of trade-discriminative arrangements on foreign
direct investment (FDI) inlows and foreign trade in Southeast Asia, by focusing
on three levels of economic cooperation – sub-regional, bilateral and regional – in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
At the sub-regional level, it uses the International Tripartite Rubber Organiza-tion (ITRO) as a proxy for an exclusive economic cooperaOrganiza-tion among a limited number of ASEAN member states. ITRO was established in 2001, by Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, which, for the last 20 years, have controlled more than 65% of the world’s natural-rubber production. In order to enhance the market
power of its major producers – and therefore increase their proits and stimulate
FDI – ITRO rules both the quantity of production and the trade of natural rubber.
This thesis examines whether ITRO is effective in attracting FDI inlows of rubber
into ASEAN member states.
At the bilateral level, this thesis observes direct bilateral free-trade agreements (BFTAs) between ASEAN member states and non-member states, to examine
whether BFTAs are effective in attracting FDI inlows into the former. At the
regional level, it examines the impact of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) on
both intraregional trade (trade creation) and FDI inlows (investment creation). It
hypothesises that AFTA is effective in increasing intraregional trade and
attract-ing FDI inlows into ASEAN member states. It also uses the impact of BFTAs on
intraregional trade as a proxy to prove the existance of the ‘noodle-bowl phenom-enon’, or the complicated trade arrangements in Southeast Asia.
