Indonesia. MA7 Kasus Baru. MA7 Meninggal-rhs PERISTIWA DOMESTIK DAN GLOBAL

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44158.00 ###

6.21 -3.49 0.07 0.36 3606.80 -3.29

0.85 (%yoy) (%mtm) Inflasi (Miliar

USD) -26.93

X

Rp/Kg Harga %1D %1D

X

Rp/Kg Harga %1D %1D

EDISI: 217/11/2020

Senin, 23 November 2020

IHGS Menghijau Awal Pekan Didorong Perkembangan Vaksin Pfizer Serta Realisasi Program Perlindungan Sosial.

PERISTIWA DOMESTIK DAN GLOBAL

%YTD Rp5,652.76 1.46 10.23 -10.27 0.11 3.36 -2.00 Total Kasus Total Meninggal Kasus Baru Meninggal

COVID-19

58,666,247 1,388,272 4,360 Dunia Indonesia 497,668 11,800 35,250 26,300

Telur Ayam Bwg. Merah IHSG CAPITAL FLOW (JUTA USD) Rp14,149.00 Sep-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Inflasi

YIELD OBG PEMERINTAH 10T (%) KONDISI EKONOMI

BOND (MTD) CAP FLOW MTD

NILAI %DTD %MTD %YTD

79.20 0.00 -20.25 16.95

Bwg. Putih Cabai Merah

0.38 0.57 -0.13 0.00 -0.14 3510.00 38,400 0.35 -0.24 0.97 0.00 0.35 118,700 Nikel (USD/MT) 2.00 Minyak Goreng 0.78 14,350 14,450 CPO (MYR/MT) 28,850 41,050 Cabai Rawit 36,500 16151.00 Batubara (USD/MT) 63.35 1.12 Gula Pasir 2.25

Emas (USD/Troy Ounce)

1869.24 -0.09 Karet (JPY/Kg) 245.10 0.00 Daging Sapi

Beras Brent (USD/Barrel)

45.97

Daging Ayam

CAP FLOW YTD

454.67 698.46 1153.13 -8088.42

EQUITY (MTD)

CDS5T

KOMODITAS INTERNASIONAL

Trade Bal. Ekspor Impor

AS

CAD to PDB

PDB

HARGA KOMODITAS DOMESTIK DAN INTERNASIONAL

%yoy

Indonesia

Oct-20 KOMODITAS DOMESTIK 15,884

NILAI TUKAR, SAHAM & ARUS MODAL ASING

USD/IDR %DTD %MTD %YTD

2

0 /1

1 /2

0

2

0

NILAI %DTD %MTD 110 519,947 7,340 0.00 5000.00 10000.00 15000.00 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 30/07/202001/08/202003/08/202005/08/202007/08/202009/08/202011/08/202013/08/202015/08/202017/08/202019/08/202021/08/202023/08/202025/08/202027/08/202029/08/202031/08/202002/09/202004/09/202006/09/202008/09/202010/09/202012/09/202014/09/202016/09/202018/09/202020/09/202022/09/202024/09/202026/09/202028/09/202030/09/202002/10/202004/10/202006/10/202008/10/202010/10/202012/10/202014/10/202016/10/202018/10/202020/10/202022/10/202024/10/202026/10/202028/10/202030/10/202001/11/202003/11/202005/11/202007/11/202009/11/202011/11/202013/11/202015/11/202017/11/202019/11/202021/11/2020

MA7 Kasus Baru MA7 Meninggal-rhs

Dunia

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 30/07/202001/08/202003/08/202005/08/202007/08/202009/08/202011/08/202013/08/202015/08/202017/08/202019/08/202021/08/202023/08/202025/08/202027/08/202029/08/202031/08/202002/09/202004/09/202006/09/202008/09/202010/09/202012/09/202014/09/202016/09/202018/09/202020/09/202022/09/202024/09/202026/09/202028/09/202030/09/202002/10/202004/10/202006/10/202008/10/202010/10/202012/10/202014/10/202016/10/202018/10/202020/10/202022/10/202024/10/202026/10/202028/10/202030/10/202001/11/202003/11/202005/11/202007/11/202009/11/202011/11/202013/11/202015/11/202017/11/202019/11/202021/11/2020

MA7 Kasus Baru MA7 Meninggal-rhs

Indonesia

• Pemerintah sedang merampungkan Rancangan Peraturan Pemerintah (RPP) terkait Perizinan Berusaha Berbasis Risiko dan Tata Cara Pengawasan. RPP ini

sebagai salah satu aturan turunan UU Cipta Kerja, untuk mewujudkan kemudahan dan kepastian usaha. Nantinya, RPP ini akan menetapkan norma, standar, prosedur dan kriteria (NSPK) dalam mengimplementasikan konsep perizinan berbasis risiko atau risk base approach (RBA).

• Kementerian Keuangan, memperkirakan sebanyak 3,43 juta orang terselamatkan dari kemiskinan berkat dukungan program perlindungan sosial dalam

program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN). Realisasi program perlindungan sosial sendiri mencapai Rp193,07 triliun atau 82,4% dari pagu Rp234,33 triliun hingga 18 November 2020.

• IHSG menguat awal pekan setelah investor merespons pengajuan izin vaksin Pfizer terhadap otoritas obat dan makanan (FDA) Amerika Serikat. Kandidat

vaksin mereka, BNT162b2, kemungkinan bisa digunakan untuk populasi zona merah pada Desember di Amerika Serikat. Pengajuan didasari hasil uji klinis fase tiga vaksin Pfizer itu, yang sudah dimulai sejak 27 Juli dan melibatkan 43 ribu orang.

• The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) menggelontorkan investasi sebesar US$2 miliar atau setara dengan Rp28,3 triliun (asumsi kurs

Rp14.155 per dolar AS) kepada Lembaga Pengelola Investasi atau Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) Indonesia. CEO US DFC telah menandatangani Letter of Interest (LOI) untuk rencana investasi ke SWF Indonesia (19/11).

• Sumber: Bloomberg, Kemenko Perekonomian, Antaranews, CNN, CNBC

23/11/2020 14,149 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000 USD/IDR 23/11/2020 5,653 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 IHSG -2.00 0.00 5.07 -1.03 0.01 6.05 -3.68 4.63 -25.21 -18.15 -23.61 -8.69 -25.49 8.91 6.13 5.88 6.21 4.13 -3.21 0.31 Indonesia Malaysia Filipina Thailand Vietnam China India Jepang Brazil Rusia Turki Afrika Selatan Argentina Swedia Swiss Euro Denmark Korea Selatan Ghana Singapura

%Perbandingan Nilai Tukar Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar

(ytd) 3.36 1.58 0.41 2.95 0.03 1.92 0.01 0.83 6.60 5.02 7.12 5.94 -2.53 3.47 0.68 1.93 1.90 2.23 -0.58 1.83 Indonesia Malaysia Filipina Thailand Vietnam China India Jepang Brazil Rusia Turki Afrika Selatan Argentina Swedia Swiss Euro Denmark Korea Selatan Ghana Singapura

%Perbandingan Nilai Tukar Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar (mtd) -10.27 0.32 -8.15 -10.20 -11.60 44.55 11.95 -6.04 6.46 18.42 15.68 -8.30 16.56 3.29 -3.76 7.91 2.54 10.11 IHSG Indonesia FTSE Malaysia PSEi Filipina SET Thailand STI Singapur Hanoi Vietnam Shanghai China Hangseng Hongkong NIFTY India KOSPI Korea TWSE Taiwan Sao Paulo Brasil Borsa Istanbul 100 JSE Africa Bolsa Mexico NIKKEI Jepang Dow Jones US S&P US

%Perbandingan Indeks Saham Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar

(ytd) 10.23 8.66 13.51 18.73 17.54 9.48 5.89 9.87 11.27 14.80 10.61 12.87 19.90 10.57 13.29 11.10 10.42 8.79 IHSG Indonesia FTSE Malaysia PSEi Filipina SET Thailand STI Singapur Hanoi Vietnam Shanghai China Hangseng Hongkong NIFTY India KOSPI Korea TWSE Taiwan Sao Paulo Brasil Borsa Istanbul 100 JSE Africa Bolsa Mexico NIKKEI Jepang Dow Jones US S&P US

%Perbandingan Indeks Saham Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar

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EQUITY MTD YTD

TGL IDN MAL PHI THA SGP VIE IDN 454.67 -2730.41

11/23 0.11 0.03 0.03 0.14 0.13 -0.01 PHI -6.22 -2179.50

11/20 -0.07 0.13 0.19 0.25 0.09 0.00 MAL -96.60 -5480.70

11/19 -0.60 -0.26 -0.18 -0.31 -0.19 0.03 THA 1031.80 -8417.37

11/18 -0.11 0.42 0.04 -0.48 0.04 -0.06 VIE -128.62 -665.90

INDIA 6163.59 12710.00

TGL IHSG FTSE PSEi SET STI Hanoi KOR 5243.85 -19429.90

11/23 1.46 0.01 0.12 2.15 1.29 0.66 BOND MTD MTD

11/20 -0.40 0.64 2.46 1.45 1.30 0.25 IDN 698.46 -5358.01

11/19 0.66 -1.31 -0.77 0.35 -0.42 0.03 AFSEL 931.31 -3489.54

11/18 0.50 -0.34 1.33 1.09 0.36 0.15 THA 1363.73 -244.97

MEXICO452.17 -16483.20

TGL IDN PHI MAL THA VIE INDIA INDIA 46.27 -14183.40

11/23 - -7.30 - - - - KOR 1355.97 55931.70

11/20 -22.6 4.37 0.60 78.60 4.1

-11/19 23.2 -22.56 -41.50 -32.36 17.3 294.68 11/18 51.23 -7.78 41.50 137.38 20.7 726.67

TGL AFSEL THA MEXICO INDIA

23/11/2020 - - - -20/11/2020 -22.68 -42.36 - -19/11/2020 -34.34 -241.26 - -103.20 18/11/2020 71.74 99.26 - -14.09 -1.16 KOR 846.19 308.43 KOR Index USD

PERKEMBANGAN NILAI TUKAR HARIAN (%)

LAMPIRAN

-0.19 0.11

BOND INFLOW/OUTFLOW HARIAN (JUTA USD)

0.39

MTD dan YTD Capital dalam Juta USD

218.68 105.71

EQUITY INFLOW/OUTFLOW HARIAN (JUTA USD)

-0.02 -0.11

S&P PERKEMBANGAN NILAI SAHAM HARIAN (%)

IDN -0.00 -0.68 --154.01 424.25 -235.35

INDIKATOR RISIKO

79.20 381.08 174.50 TURKEY BRAZIL 152.18 348.35 -77.82 AFSEL 234.59 IDN 3,740 -514 776 -20 -651 -519 -269 -493 571 1 -340 -375 -560 552 -318 -264 _-581 -1,049 -252 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Equity Flow Bulanan Indonesia

-523-708 2,766 1,729 -239 1,409 2,067 666 -350 999 -2,071 -7,538 270612329598 -144 -591 1,480 A p r-1 9 M a y -1 9 Ju n-1 9 Ju l-1 9 A ug -1 9 S ep -1 9 O ct -1 9 No v-1 9 D e c-1 9 Ja n-2 0 Fe b -2 0 M a r-2 0 A p r-2 0 M a y -2 0 Ju n-2 0 Ju l-2 0 A ug -2 0 S ep -2 0 O ct -2 0 -9000 -6000 -3000 0 3000 6000

Bond Flow Bulanan Indonesia

6.2 0.85 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 2 4 6 8 10

Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20

Gap - rhs

Yield Obligasi Indonesia dan AS

Yield Obligasi Indonesia 10Y Yield Obligasi US 10T

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Indonesia Turkey Brazil Sout Africa

Perbandingan CDS 5T

23/11/2020 23.45 0 10 20 30 40 50

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

CBOE Volatility Index

6.21

0.85 0.91 _0.72 1.31

2.66 2.82

3.28

Indonesia US Singapore Hongkong Thailand Malaysia Philipines China

Perbandingan Yield Obligasi 10T (%)

16.95 19.91 56.85 35.07 75.46 43.63 22.72 24.71

Indonesia Mexico Peru Turkey Brazil Sout Africa Malaysia Philipines

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X

IDN

MAL

PHI

THA

VNM

X

IDN MAL PHI THA VNM

%Yoy -3.49 -2.70 -11.50 -6.40 2.62 %Yoy 1.44 -1.40 2.50 -0.50 2.47

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN INFLASI

SEKTOR EKSTERNAL

01/09/2020 -3.49 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kuartalan (%, yoy)

01/10/2020 1.44 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

9.0

Inflasi Bulanan (%, yoy)

-35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25

Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20

Indonesia Malaysia Philipines Thailand Vietnam

Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Beberapa Negara (%yoy)

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20

Indonesia Malaysia Philipines

Thailand Vietnam

Perbandingan Inflasi Bulanan Beberapa Negara (%yoy)

132.0

135.2

01/10/2020: 133.7

Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 100 110 120 130 140

Cadangan Devisa (miliar USD)

-8.1 -2.9 1.0 -1.20 0.36 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Ju n-1 2 Sep -1 2 D ec -1 2 M a r-1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-13 D ec -1 3 M a r-1 4 Ju n-1 4 Sep -1 4 D ec -1 4 M a r-1 5 Ju n-1 5 Sep -1 5 D ec -1 5 M a r-1 6 Ju n-1 6 Sep -1 6 D ec -1 6 M a r-1 7 Ju n-1 7 Se p-17 D ec -1 7 M a r-1 8 Ju n-1 8 Sep -1 8 D ec -1 8 M a r-1 9 Ju n-1 9 Sep -1 9 D ec -1 9 M a r-2 0 Ju n-2 0 Sep -2 0 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 Transaksi Berjalan (Miliar US$) - RHS

% Transaksi Berjalan thd GDP

% Transaksi Berjalan thd GDP & Defisit Transaksi Berjalan

01/10/2020: 3.61 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

4

Nilai Neraca Perdagangan (Miliar USD)

13.96 31/10/2020 14.39 11.57 31/10/2020 10.79

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

Nilai Ekspor Nilai Impor

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X

Harga %1D %MTD

X

Harga %1D %MTD

HARGA KOMODITAS

Aluminium (USD/MT) 8.32 7.82 -20.63 -19.23 6.57 2.23 2.00 -4.18 22.72 20.84 7.93 0.00 2.60 0.03 7277.50 1993.00 -0.50 8.85 -0.09 1.12 245.10 2.71 16151.00

KOMODITAS INTERNASIONAL

10.48

Karet (JPY/Kg) Gas Alam (USD/MMBTu) Nikel (USD/MT)

45.97

Kopi (USD/lb) Batubara (USD/MT)

Emas (USD/Troy Ounce)

CPO (MYR/MT) WTI (USD/Barrel)

Brent (USD/Barrel)

3510.00 1869.24

Keterangan Ticker yang digunakan secara berturut-turut dari sebelah kiri ke kanan: CO1

Comdty, CL1 Comdty, KO1 Comdty, XAU Curncy, XW1 Comdty, KCA Comdty, JN1 Comdty, NGA Comdty , LMNIDS03 Comdty, LMCADS03 Comdty, LMAHDS03 Comdty

63.35 118.05

43.25

2.25 1.96 0.78

Tembaga (USD/MT)

PEREKONOMIAN AMERIKA SERIKAT

65.17 23/11/2020_45.97 58.58 23/11/2020 43.25 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Oil Brent Oil WTI

Minyak (USD/Barel)

23/11/2020 3,510 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

CPO (MYR/MT)

1,414 23/11/2020 1,869 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Emas (USD/Troy Ounce)

69.45 23/11/2020 63.35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Batubara (USD/MT)

23/11/2020 92.22 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104

Indeks Dolar

23/11/2020 0.69 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80

0.90

US 10Y - 2Y Bond Yield

142.4 8.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150

155 _{Employee on Non Farm Payrolls} _{Unemployment - rhs}

Employee on Non Farm Payroll (Million of Persons) and Unemployment (%)

1.40 01/10/2020 1.20 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 A p r-12 Ju l-12 O ct -12 Ja n-13 A p r-13 Ju l-13 O ct -13 Ja n-14 A p r-14 Ju l-14 O ct -14 Ja n-15 A p r-15 Ju l-15 O ct -15 Ja n-16 A p r-16 Ju l-16 O ct -16 Ja n-17 A p r-17 Ju l-17 O ct -17 Ja n-18 A p r-18 Ju l-18 O ct -18 Ja n-19 A p r-19 Ju l-19 O ct -19 Ja n-20 A p r-20 Ju l-20 O ct -20

Inflasi US (%yoy)

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X

Rp

%1D

%WTW

X

Rp

%1D

%WTW -0.13 0.35 0.70 -1.44 -0.54 28,850 41,050 36,500 0.35 14,350 0.00 0.35 -0.24 0.97 0.35 11,800 35,250 118,700

Cabai Merah Cabai Rawit

0.00

KOMODITAS DOMESTIK STRATEGIS

Gula Pasir

Minyak Goreng

Bwg. Putih

26,300

14,450

HARGA KOMODITAS DOMESTIK

38,400

Beras Daging Ayam Daging Sapi Telur Ayam Bwg. Merah

-0.14 0.34 1.54 -0.13 0.00 -0.14 0.38 0.57 11,900 _11,800 11,500 11,600 11,700 11,800 11,900 12,000 12,100 12,200

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Beras (Rp/kg)

31,300 35,250 25,500 27,500 29,500 31,500 33,500 35,500 37,500 39,500 41,500

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Daging Ayam(Rp/kg) 118,100 118,700 113,000 114,000 115,000 116,000 117,000 118,000 119,000 120,000 121,000 122,000

Daging Sapi (Rp/kg)

24,150 26,300 23,500 24,500 25,500 26,500 27,500 28,500 29,500 Telur Ayam(Rp/kg) 13,700 14,350 13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200 14,400 14,600 14,800 15,000 Minyak Goreng (Rp/kg) 51,950 38,400 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000 75,000 Bawang Merah (Rp/kg) 37,100 28,850 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Bawang Putih (Rp/kg) 17,650 14,450 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 Gula Pasir (Rp/kg) 32,600 36,500 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Cabai Rawit (Rp/kg) 27,850 41,050 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Cabai Merah (Rp/kg)