OECD Desember 2020: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Diproyeksikan Membaik

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44168.00 ###

6.18 -3.49 0.28 0.36 3606.80 -3.29

0.94 (%yoy) (%mtm) (% thd _PDB) (Miliar _USD) -26.93

X

Rp/Kg Harga %1D %1D

X

Rp/Kg Harga %1D %1D 17,199

NILAI TUKAR, SAHAM & ARUS MODAL ASING

USD/IDR

%DTD

%MTD

%YTD

0

2 /1

2 /2

0

2

0 NILAI

%DTD

%MTD

118 716,289 13,112 KOMODITAS INTERNASIONAL

Trade Bal. Ekspor Impor

AS

CAD to PDB

PDB

HARGA KOMODITAS DOMESTIK DAN INTERNASIONAL

%yoy

Indonesia

Oct-20

KOMODITAS DOMESTIK

CAP FLOW YTD

-59.20 31.73 -27.47 -7918.31

EQUITY (MTD)

CDS5T

0.23

Emas (USD/Troy Ounce)

1842.08 0.59 Karet (JPY/Kg) 262.90 2.50 Daging Sapi

Beras Brent (USD/Barrel)

48.37 Daging Ayam CPO (MYR/MT) 28,750 46,550 Cabai Rawit 42,750 16000.00 Batubara (USD/MT) 71.40 1.93 Gula Pasir 3497.00 37,150 0.00 1.86 0.35 0.00 0.00 118,400 Nikel (USD/MT) -1.71 Minyak Goreng 0.52 14,400 14,350

Bwg. Putih Cabai Merah

-0.04 0.19 -0.93 0.00 -0.29

11,800 34,750 26,400

Telur Ayam Bwg. Merah

IHSG

CAPITAL FLOW (JUTA USD) Rp14,140.00 Sep-20 Nov-20 Sep-20 Inflasi

YIELD OBG PEMERINTAH 10T (%) KONDISI EKONOMI

BOND (MTD) CAP FLOW MTD

NILAI

%DTD

%MTD

%YTD

89.60 0.00 0.00 32.31

EDISI: 225/12/2020

Kamis, 3 Desember 2020

OECD Desember 2020: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Diproyeksikan Membaik

PERISTIWA DOMESTIK DAN GLOBAL

%YTD

Rp5,822.94 0.15 3.75 -7.57 -0.11 -0.14 -1.94 Total Kasus Total Meninggal Kasus Baru Meninggal

COVID-19

64,508,746 1,492,998 5,533

Dunia

Indonesia

549,508 0.00 5000.00 10000.00 15000.00 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 09 /08/202 0 11 /08/202 0 13 /08/202 0 15 /08/202 0 17 /08/202 0 19 /08/202 0 21 /08/202 0 23 /08/202 0 25 /08/202 0 27 /08/202 0 29 /08/202 0 31 /08/202 0 02 /09/202 0 04 /09/202 0 06 /09/202 0 08 /09/202 0 10 /09/202 0 12 /09/202 0 14 /09/202 0 16 /09/202 0 18 /09/202 0 20 /09/202 0 22 /09/202 0 24 /09/202 0 26 /09/202 0 28 /09/202 0 30 /09/202 0 02 /10/202 0 04 /10/202 0 06 /10/202 0 08 /10/202 0 10 /10/202 0 12 /10/202 0 14 /10/202 0 16 /10/202 0 18 /10/202 0 20 /10/202 0 22 /10/202 0 24 /10/202 0 26 /10/202 0 28 /10/202 0 30 /10/202 0 01 /11/202 0 03 /11/202 0 05 /11/202 0 07 /11/202 0 09 /11/202 0 11 /11/202 0 13 /11/202 0 15 /11/202 0 17 /11/202 0 19 /11/202 0 21 /11/202 0 23 /11/202 0 25 /11/202 0 27 /11/202 0 29 /11/202 0 01 /12/202 0

MA7 Kasus Baru MA7 Meninggal-rhs

Dunia

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 09/0 8/2020 11/0 8/2020 13/0 8/2020 15/0 8/2020 17/0 8/2020 19/0 8/2020 21/0 8/2020 23/0 8/2020 25/0 8/2020 27/0 8/2020 29/0 8/2020 31/0 8/2020 02/0 9/2020 04/0 9/2020 06/0 9/2020 08/0 9/2020 10/0 9/2020 12/0 9/2020 14/0 9/2020 16/0 9/2020 18/0 9/2020 20/0 9/2020 22/0 9/2020 24/0 9/2020 26/0 9/2020 28/0 9/2020 30/0 9/2020 02/1 0/2020 04/1 0/2020 06/1 0/2020 08/1 0/2020 10/1 0/2020 12/1 0/2020 14/1 0/2020 16/1 0/2020 18/1 0/2020 20/1 0/2020 22/1 0/2020 24/1 0/2020 26/1 0/2020 28/1 0/2020 30/1 0/2020 01/1 1/2020 03/1 1/2020 05/1 1/2020 07/1 1/2020 09/1 1/2020 11/1 1/2020 13/1 1/2020 15/1 1/2020 17/1 1/2020 19/1 1/2020 21/1 1/2020 23/1 1/2020 25/1 1/2020 27/1 1/2020 29/1 1/2020 01/1 2/2020

MA7 Kasus Baru MA7 Meninggal-rhs

Indonesia

• Pada penutupan pasar sore hari ini (3/12) IHSG ditutup pada level 5822.942 menguat 0.15%(dtd) dibandingkan penutupan hari sebelumnya. Sektor pertanian menguat paling besar (3.82% dtd), diikuti sektor pertambangan (1.30% dtd), sektor keuangan (0.62% dtd) dan sektor p roperti (0.13% dtd). Indeks saham Asia juga menguat seperti FTSE Malaysia (1.64%), SET Thailand (1.29%), Kospi Korea (0.76%) dan Hang Seng Hong Ko ng (0.74%). • Sementara itu nilai tukar rupiah berada di level Rp14140 atau mengalami depresiasi sebesar -0.11%(dtd) dibandingkan penutupan hari sebelumnya. Pada

saat laporan ini dibuat, nilai tukar rupiah forward 1 bulan berada di level Rp14241. Depresiasi nilai tukar terhadap dollar A S juga dialami beberapa negara emerging markets seperti Lira Turki (-0.34%), Rupee India (-0.15%), Peso Mexico (-0.09%) dan Ruble Rusia (-0.05%).

• Sentimen positif masih berasal dari perkembangan mengenai vaksin moderna dan Pfizer serta stimulus fiskal AS, meskipun penguatan hari ini relatif terpangkas karena investor masih cenderung melakukan profit taking setelah IHSG melesat tinggi sebulan terakhir (3.75% mtd).

• Dalam laporan OECD Desember 2020, pertumbuhan ekonomi global tahun 2020 diproyeksikan - 4,2% yoy atau membaik dari proyeksi bulan September sebesar -4.5% yoy. Sedangkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diproyeksikan sebesar -2.4% yoy, angka ini lebih baik dari proyeksi sebelumnya sebesar -3.3% yoy. Pada tahun 2021, ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan tumbuh sebesar 4.0% yoy.

• Sumber: Bloomberg, CNBC Indonesia, Kontan

03/12/2020 14,140 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000 USD/IDR 03/12/2020 5,823 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 IHSG -1.94 0.49 5.42 -0.80 0.17 6.18 -3.41 4.14 -22.95 -17.48 -24.68 -8.69 -26.50 10.60 8.25 8.21 8.61 5.41 -3.31 0.67 Indonesia Malaysia Filipina Thailand Vietnam China India Jepang Brazil Rusia Turki Afrika Selatan Argentina Swedia Swiss Euro Denmark Korea Selatan Ghana Singapura

%Perbandingan Nilai Tukar Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar

(ytd) -0.14 0.07 0.07 0.17 0.00 0.32 0.20 0.02 2.45 1.70 -0.98 0.89 -0.19 1.25 1.79 1.74 1.74 0.87 -0.32 0.34 Indonesia Malaysia Filipina Thailand Vietnam China India Jepang Brazil Rusia Turki Afrika Selatan Argentina Swedia Swiss Euro Denmark Korea Selatan Ghana Singapura

%Perbandingan Nilai Tukar Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar (mtd) -7.57 2.17 -7.95 -9.35 -12.60 48.26 12.85 -5.32 7.96 22.69 16.50 -3.26 15.25 6.05 0.31 13.33 4.71 13.56 IHSG Indonesia FTSE Malaysia PSEi Filipina SET Thailand STI Singapur Hanoi Vietnam Shanghai China Hangseng Hongkong NIFTY India KOSPI Korea TWSE Taiwan Sao Paulo Brasil Borsa Istanbul 100 JSE Africa Bolsa Mexico NIKKEI Jepang Dow Jones US S&P US

%Perbandingan Indeks Saham Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar

(ytd) 3.75 3.87 5.93 1.69 0.39 2.90 1.49 1.32 1.30 4.05 1.85 2.74 2.74 2.90 4.54 1.42 0.83 1.31 IHSG Indonesia FTSE Malaysia PSEi Filipina SET Thailand STI Singapur Hanoi Vietnam Shanghai China Hangseng Hongkong NIFTY India KOSPI Korea TWSE Taiwan Sao Paulo Brasil Borsa Istanbul 100 JSE Africa Bolsa Mexico NIKKEI Jepang Dow Jones US S&P US

%Perbandingan Indeks Saham Indonesia dan Negara Sekitar

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EQUITY MTD YTD

TGL IDN MAL PHI THA SGP VIE IDN -59.20 -2999.54

12/3 -0.11 0.16 0.01 0.13 0.16 -0.06 PHI -33.60 -2375.66

12/2 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.08 0.01 _MAL 7.30 -5627.50

12/1 -0.07 -0.12 0.06 0.02 0.27 0.05 THA 53.25 -8314.95

11/30 -0.21 -0.13 0.00 0.09 -0.25 0.12 _VIE -34.59 -731.63

INDIA 481.26 16587.00

TGL IHSG FTSE PSEi SET STI Hanoi KOR 576.48 -18892.10

12/3 0.15 1.53 1.60 1.00 0.21 0.79 _BOND _MTD _MTD

12/2 1.56 -0.22 1.01 -0.21 -0.11 1.26 IDN 31.73 -4918.77

12/1 2.00 2.53 3.21 0.89 0.29 0.83 _AFSEL 380.66 -3268.91

11/30 -2.96 -2.79 0.00 -2.05 -1.75 -0.32 THA -71.74 -525.84

MEXICO6613.55 -10321.80

TGL IDN PHI MAL THA VIE INDIA INDIA -63.02 -14682.20

12/3 - -9.93 - - - - _KOR 642.43 57596.30

12/2 -11.0 -5.88 -8.90 33.15 -44.1

-12/1 -48.2 -27.72 16.20 20.10 9.5 481.26

11/30 -231.19 - -132.80 -144.36 -7.1

-TGL AFSEL THA MEXICO INDIA

03/12/2020 - - - -02/12/2020 103.32 -56.92 - -01/12/2020 277.34 -14.82 - -63.02 30/11/2020 -134.83 8.38 - -538.54 103.90 -23.37

INDIKATOR RISIKO

89.60

377.29

156.30 TURKEY

BRAZIL

-140.34 31.73 40.25

AFSEL

220.84 IDN

MTD dan YTD Capital dalam Juta USD 493.81

82.67

EQUITY INFLOW/OUTFLOW HARIAN (JUTA USD)

-0.61 0.09

S&P PERKEMBANGAN NILAI SAHAM HARIAN (%)

IDN -0.00 0.18 --2241.84 KOR Index USD

PERKEMBANGAN NILAI TUKAR HARIAN (%)

LAMPIRAN

-0.17 -0.21

BOND INFLOW/OUTFLOW HARIAN (JUTA USD)

1.13 -0.46 KOR -514 776 -20 -651 -519 -269 -493 571 1 -340 -375 -560 552 -318 -264 -581 -1,049 -252 245 -2000 -1000 0 1000

Equity Flow Bulanan Indonesia

-708 2,766 1,729 -239 1,409 2,067 666 -350 999 -2,071 -7,538 270612329598 -144 -591 1,480 1,106 M a y-1 9 Ju n-1 9 Ju l-1 9 A ug -1 9 Sep -1 9 O ct -1 9 Nov -1 9 D e c-1 9 Ja n-2 0 Fe b -2 0 M a r-2 0 A p r-2 0 M a y-2 0 Ju n-2 0 Ju l-2 0 A ug -2 0 Sep -2 0 O ct -2 0 Nov -2 0 -9000 -6000 -3000 0 3000 6000

Bond Flow Bulanan Indonesia

6.2 0.94 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 2 4 6 8 10

Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20

Gap - rhs

Yield Obligasi Indonesia dan AS

Yield Obligasi Indonesia 10Y Yield Obligasi US 10T

0 200 400 600 800

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Indonesia Turkey Brazil Sout Africa

Perbandingan CDS 5T

03/12/2020 21.17 0 10 20 30 40 50

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

CBOE Volatility Index

6.18

0.94 0.89 _0.72 1.30

2.72 2.82 3.30

Indonesia US Singapore Hongkong Thailand Malaysia Philipines China

Perbandingan Yield Obligasi 10T (%)

32.31 7.74 53.16 33.73 57.16 35.21 13.82 15.85

Indonesia Mexico Peru Turkey Brazil Sout Africa Malaysia Philipines

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X

IDN

MAL

PHI

THA

VNM

X

IDN MAL PHI THA VNM

%Yoy

-3.49

-2.70

-11.50

-6.40

2.62

%Yoy 1.59 -1.50 2.50 -0.50 1.48

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN INFLASI

SEKTOR EKSTERNAL

01/09/2020 -3.49 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kuartalan (%, yoy)

01/11/2020 1.59 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

9.0

Inflasi Bulanan (%, yoy)

-35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25

Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20

Indonesia Malaysia Philipines Thailand Vietnam

Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Beberapa Negara (%yoy)

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20

Indonesia Malaysia Philipines Thailand

Perbandingan Inflasi Bulanan Beberapa Negara (%yoy)

128.1

133.7

Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 100 110 120 130 140

Cadangan Devisa (miliar USD)

-8.1 -2.9 1.0 -1.20 0.36 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Ju n-1 2 Se p -1 2 D ec -1 2 M a r-1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p -1 3 D ec -1 3 M a r-1 4 Ju n-1 4 Se p -1 4 D ec -1 4 M a r-1 5 Ju n-1 5 Se p -1 5 D ec -1 5 M a r-1 6 Ju n-1 6 Se p -1 6 D ec -1 6 M a r-1 7 Ju n-1 7 Se p -1 7 D ec -1 7 M a r-1 8 Ju n-1 8 Se p -1 8 D ec -1 8 M a r-1 9 Ju n-1 9 Se p -1 9 D ec -1 9 M a r-2 0 Ju n-2 0 Se p -2 0 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 Transaksi Berjalan (Miliar US$) - RHS

% Transaksi Berjalan thd GDP % Transaksi Berjalan thd GDP & Defisit Transaksi Berjalan

01/11/2020: #N/A -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

4

Nilai Neraca Perdagangan (Miliar USD)

14.39

10.79

May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

Nilai Ekspor Nilai Impor

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X

Harga %1D %MTD

X

Harga %1D %MTD

PEREKONOMIAN AMERIKA SERIKAT

KOMODITAS INTERNASIONAL

-3.41 Karet (JPY/Kg) Gas Alam (USD/MMBTu) Nikel (USD/MT)

48.37

Kopi (USD/lb) Batubara (USD/MT)

Emas (USD/Troy Ounce) CPO (MYR/MT)

WTI (USD/Barrel) Brent (USD/Barrel)

3497.00 1842.08

Keterangan Ticker yang digunakan secara berturut-turut dari sebelah kiri ke kanan: CO1 Comdty, CL1 Comdty, KO1 Comdty, XAU Curncy, XW1 Comdty, KCA Comdty, JN1 Comdty, NGA Comdty , LMNIDS03 Comdty, LMCADS03 Comdty, LMAHDS03 Comdty

71.40 119.10 45.33

0.23 0.11 0.52

Tembaga (USD/MT) Aluminium (USD/MT)

1.23 0.49 4.95 -6.18 -0.21 -2.73 -1.71 0.55 1.62 -0.02 1.39 2.50 -0.28 -0.46 7673.00 2055.00 3.67 1.56 0.59 1.93 262.90 2.70 16000.00

HARGA KOMODITAS

58.53 03/12/2020 48.37 54.50 03/12/2020 45.33 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Oil Brent Oil WTI

Minyak (USD/Barel)

03/12/2020 3,497 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

CPO (MYR/MT)

1,497 03/12/2020 1,842 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Emas (USD/Troy Ounce)

67.85 03/12/2020 71.40 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Batubara (USD/MT)

03/12/2020 90.97 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104

Indeks Dolar

03/12/2020 0.78 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80

0.90

US 10Y - 2Y Bond Yield

142.4 8.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150

155 _{Employee on Non Farm Payrolls} _{Unemployment - rhs}

Employee on Non Farm Payroll (Million of Persons) and Unemployment (%)

1.20 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 M a y-12 A ug -12 N ov -12 Fe b-13 M a y-13 A ug -13 N ov -13 Fe b-14 M a y-14 A ug -14 N ov -14 Fe b-15 M a y-15 A ug -15 N ov -15 Fe b-16 M a y-16 A ug -16 N ov -16 Fe b-17 M a y-17 A ug -17 N ov -17 Fe b-18 M a y-18 A ug -18 N ov -18 Fe b-19 M a y-19 A ug -19 N ov -19 Fe b-20 M a y-20 A ug -20 N ov -20

Inflasi US (%yoy)

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X

Rp

%1D

%WTW

X

Rp

%1D

%WTW 14,350

HARGA KOMODITAS DOMESTIK

37,150

Beras Daging Ayam Daging Sapi Telur Ayam Bwg. Merah

-1.84 -0.08 0.38 -2.24

0.00 -0.29 -0.04 0.19

0.00

11,800 34,750 118,400

Cabai Merah Cabai Rawit

0.00

KOMODITAS DOMESTIK STRATEGIS

Gula Pasir Minyak Goreng Bwg. Putih 26,400 -0.52 13.12 14.00 28,750 46,550 42,750 0.00 14,400 0.00 0.35 1.86 0.35 -0.93 -0.35 12,100 11,800 11,500 11,600 11,700 11,800 11,900 12,000 12,100 12,200

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Beras (Rp/kg)

35,750 34,750 25,500 27,500 29,500 31,500 33,500 35,500 37,500 39,500 41,500

Daging Ayam(Rp/kg)

119,400 118,400 114,000 115,000 116,000 117,000 118,000 119,000 120,000 121,000 122,000

Daging Sapi (Rp/kg)

25,500 26,400 23,500 24,500 25,500 26,500 27,500 28,500 29,500 Telur Ayam(Rp/kg) 14,650 14,400 13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200 14,400 14,600 14,800 15,000 Minyak Goreng (Rp/kg) 63,750 37,150 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000 75,000 Bawang Merah (Rp/kg) _35,750 28,750 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Bawang Putih (Rp/kg) 17,950 14,350 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Gula Pasir (Rp/kg) 27,200 42,750 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Cabai Rawit (Rp/kg) 31,350 46,550 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Cabai Merah (Rp/kg)