DAFTAR PUSTAKA. Arfida, B. R Ekonomi Sumberdaya Manusia. Ghalia Indonesia, Jakarta.

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Lampiran 1. Perkembangan Migrasi Masuk, Migrasi Keluar dan Migrasi Bersih Tahun 1980, 1990, 1995 dan 2000

Migrasi Masuk Migrasi Keluar Net Migrasi

Propinsi 1980 1990 1995 2000 1980 1990 1995 2000 1980 1990 1995 2000 NAD Sumut Sumbar Riau Jambi Sumsel Bengkulu Lampung DKI Jakarta Jawa Barat Jateng DI Yogyakrt Jatim Bali NTB NTT Kalbar Kalteng Kalsel Kaltim Sulut Sulteng Sulsel Sultenggara Maluku Papua 143365 547715 131438 343024 293245 608497 121274 1782703 2565158 963870 336611 175789 433451 63365 51493 38735 104856 140042 142619 292028 88266 184526 108038 104793 124894 93030 193285 452918 216014 681627 470484 932032 251232 1726969 3141214 2319890 509401 264842 564401 122899 67023 46310 196876 240374 272797 600201 87715 286142 219666 236848 184892 261308 228641 552450 260845 884769 482795 1038898 332080 1923928 3371384 3615099 672978 347245 808995 157902 75227 57915 250617 325028 321955 741109 76084 351609 304296 260141 160477 319276 100166 447897 245000 1534849 566153 987157 355048 1485218 3541972 3271882 708308 385117 781590 221722 107605 106053 269722 423014 360324 856251 147091 389634 273875 366817 75540 332015 116010 417659 558804 86540 47151 333024 39019 57664 400767 1487935 3227892 253447 1597851 117828 44487 47534 72358 25086 169561 34059 121231 33912 511725 89957 64725 15559 125563 770093 642908 127672 77299 443384 46720 167565 1052234 1751879 4524988 508215 2479487 221599 96774 99442 116735 47770 201936 63533 153466 48360 641961 107673 95361 30786 181574 1025451 837493 169941 112204 580077 66762 273061 1589285 1891615 5014822 861679 2879389 230149 107261 118625 126834 57448 245595 88646 218240 47793 792342 125403 135727 92356 244314 1336772 937799 164358 149376 525954 73390 385748 1836664 2046279 5354459 784154 3063297 250724 145546 156602 154620 53291 255595 90635 151326 74463 874338 95189 157066 46824 27355 130056 -427366 256484 246094 275473 82255 1725039 2164391 -524065 -2891281 -77658 -1164400 -54463 7006 -8799 32498 114956 -26942 257969 -32965 150614 -403687 14836 60169 77741 67722 -317175 -426894 553955 393549 488648 204512 1559404 2099980 640011 -4015587 -243373 -1915086 -98700 -29751 -53132 80141 192674 70861 536668 -65751 237782 -422295 129175 89531 230522 47067 -473001 -576648 714828 370591 458821 265318 1650867 1782099 1723484 -4341844 -514434 -2070394 -72247 -32034 -60710 123783 267580 76360 652463 -142156 303816 -488046 134738 24750 226920 -144148 -888875 -692799 1370491 416777 416203 281658 1099470 1705303 1225603 -4646151 -399037 -2281707 -29022 -37941 -50549 115102 369723 104729 765616 -4235 315171 -600463 271628 -81526 285191

Sumber : Sensus Penduduk, Badan Pusat Statistik (2001)

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Lampiran 2. Sumber Data

No Data

Sumber

Data

1.

2.

3.

4

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19. Migrasi Internal

Migrasi Internasional

Upah setiap Propinsi

Upah Minimum Regional setiap

Propinsi

Upah di Malaysia, Singapura dan

Hongkong

Penawaran Tenaga Kerja setiap

Propinsi

Permintaan Tenaga Kerja setiap

Propinsi

Pengangguran setiap Propinsi

Penawaran Tenaga Kerja di

Malaysia, Singapura dan Hongkong

Permintaan Tenaga Kerja di

Malaysia, Singapura dan Hongkong

Pengangguran di Malaysia,

Singapura dan Hongkong

Populasi setiap Pulau

Kebutuhan Hidup Minimum

Inflasi

Suku Bunga

Nilai Tukar Dollar AS, Singapura,

Hongkong dan Ringgit Malaysia

GRDP setiap Propinsi

GRDP Perkapita setiap Propinsi

GDP Arab Saudi dan Singapura

BPS/ Hasil Survei Penduduk Antar

Sensus (SUPAS)

BPS/ Indikator Tingkat Hidup Pekerja

ILO/

http://www.ilo.org.inst/

BPS/ Statistik Indonesia, Depnakertrans

BPS/Statistik Indonesia, Depnakertrans

ADB/

http://www.adb.org..stat/

ADB/

http://www.adb.org..stat/

ADB/

http://www.adb.org..stat/

BPS/Statistik Indonesia, Depnakertrans

BPS/ Indikator Tingkat Hidup Pekerja

BPS/ Indikator Ekonomi

BPS/ Indikator Ekonomi, Bank Indonesia

Bank Indonesia/ Kurs Menteri Keuangan

BPS/ Statistik Indonesia

ADB/

http://www.adb.org..stat/

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Lampiran 2. Lanjutan

No Data

Sumber

Data

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.

31. Konsumsi Rumah Tangga setiap

Propinsi

Total Investasi setiap Propinsi

Nilai Ekspor dan Impor

Pengeluaran Pembangunan

Pengeluaran Infrastruktur

Pajak

Devisa dari Tenaga Kerja Migran

Internasional

Pendapatan Migran Internal

Penduduk Berpendidikan Tinggi

Penduduk Berpendidikan Rendah

Luas Lahan yang Sementara tidak

Digunakan

Jumlah Industri di Jawa

BPS/ Statistik Inonesia, Indikator

Ekonomi

BPS/ Statistik Indonesia, Indikator

Ekonomi

BPS/ Statistik Indonesia, Indikator

Ekonomi

BPS/ Statistik Keuangan Daerah TK.I

dan Daerah TK.II

BPS/ Statistik Keuangan Daerah TK.I

dan Daerah TK.II

BPS/ Statistik Keuangan Daerah TK.I

dan Daerah TK.II

BPS, Bank Indonesia

BPS/ Statistik Indonesia

BPS/ Jawa Barat, DKI Jakarta, Jawa

Tengah, DI Yogyakarta, dan Jawa

Timur dalam Angka

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Lampiran 3a. Program Estimasi Parameter Model Ekonomi Migrasi

Indonesia Menggunakan Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS

**dengan Program SAS/ETS Versi 9*)**

option nodate nonumber;

data D1;

set safrida;

LMIGSJ = LAG(MIGSJ); LMIGKJ = LAG(MIGKJ); LMIGSLJ = LAG(MIGSLJ); LMIGPJ = LAG(MIGPJ); LMIGJS = LAG(MIGJS); LMIGJK = LAG(MIGJK); LMIGJSL = LAG(MIGJSL); LMIGJP = LAG(MIGJP); LMIGJM = LAG(MIGJM); LMIGJAS = LAG(MIGJAS); LMIGJSP = LAG(MIGJSP); LMIGJH = LAG(MIGJH); LMIGSM = LAG(MIGSM); LMIGSAS = LAG(MIGSAS); LMIGSSP = LAG(MIGSSP); LMIGSH = LAG(MIGSH); LMIGKM = LAG(MIGKM); LMIGKAS = LAG(MIGKAS); LMIGKSP = LAG(MIGKSP); LMIGKH = LAG(MIGKH); LMIGSLM = LAG(MIGSLM); LMIGSLAS = LAG(MIGSLAS) LMIGSLSP = LAG(MIGSLSP); LMIGSLH = LAG(MIGSLH); LMIGPM = LAG(MIGPM); LMIGPAS = LAG(MIGPAS); LMIGPSP = LAG(MIGPSP); LMIGPH = LAG(MIGPH); LDTKJ = LAG(DTKJ); LDTKS = LAG(DTKS); LDTKK = LAG(DTKK); LDTKSL = LAG(DTKSL); LDTKP = LAG(DTKP); LSTKJ = LAG(STKJ); LSTKS = LAG(STKS); LSTKK = LAG(STKK); LSTKSL = LAG(STKSL); LSTKP = LAG(STKP); LWJ = LAG(WJ); LWS = LAG(WS); LWK = LAG(WK); LWSL = LAG(WSL); LWP = LAG(WP); LCONJ = LAG(CONJ); LCONS = LAG(CONS); LCONK = LAG(CONK); LCONSL = LAG(CONSL); LCONP = LAG(CONP); LINVJ = LAG(INVJ); LINVS = LAG(INVS); LINVK = LAG(INVK); LINVSL = LAG(INVSL); LINVP = LAG(INVP); LDEVJ = LAG(DEVJ); LDEVS = LAG(DEVS); LDEVK = LAG(DEVK); LDEVSL = LAG(DEVSL); LDEVP = LAG(DEVP);

RUN;

PROC SYSLIN DATA=D1 2SLS;

ENDOGENOUS MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL INVP DEVJ DEVS DEVK DEVSL DEVP;

INSTRUMENTS MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ POPJ POPS POPK POPSL POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP NTKSP NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM GDPCAS WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS GEXIK GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GRDPCJ GRDPCS GRDPCK GRDPCSL GRDPCP GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS INFK INFSL INFP EXPJ EXPS EXPK EXPSL EXPP IMPJ IMPS IMPK IMPSL IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK TAXSL TAXP SB NTK;

MODEL MIGSJ = WS WJ GRDPS DIKTS DIKRS INDJ DTKJ LMIGSJ/DW;

MODEL MIGKJ = WK WJ DIKTK GRDPK DIKTK DIKRK INDJ DTKJ LMIGKJ/DW;

MODEL MIGSLJ = WSL WJ GRDPSL DIKTSL DIKRSL INDJ DTKJ LMIGSLJ/DW;

MODEL MIGPJ = WP WJ GRDPP DIKTP DIKRP INDJ DTKJ LMIGPJ/DW;

MODEL MIGJS = WJ WS MIGLJS DTKS GEXIS POPJ GRDPJ UJ LMIGJS/DW;

MODEL MIGJK = WJ WK MIGLJK DTKK GEXIK POPJ GRDPJ LMIGJK/DW;

(13)

MODEL MIGJP = WJ GRDPP MIGLJP DTKP GEXIP POPJ GRDPJ UJ LMIGJP/DW;

MODEL MIGJM = WM WJ DTKM STKM GDPCM UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJM/DW;

MODEL MIGSM = WM WS DTKM STKM GDPCM US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSM/DW;

MODEL MIGKM = WM WK DTKM STKM GDPCM UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKM/DW;

MODEL MIGSLM = WM1 WSL DTKM STKM GDPCM USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLM/DW; MODEL MIGPM = WM WP DTKM STKM GDPCM UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPM/DW;

MODEL MIGJAS = WJ GDPCAS UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJAS/DW;

MODEL MIGSAS = WS GDPCAS US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSAS/DW;

MODEL MIGKAS = WK GDPCAS UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKAS/DW;

MODEL MIGSLAS = WSL GDPCAS USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLAS/DW;

MODEL MIGPAS = WP GDPCAS UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPAS/DW;

MODEL MIGJSP = WJ WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJSP/DW;

MODEL MIGSSP = WS WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSSP/DW;

MODEL MIGKSP = WK WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKSP/DW;

MODEL MIGSLSP = WSL WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLSP/DW;

MODEL MIGPSP = WP WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPSP/DW; MODEL MIGJH = WH WJ DTKH STKH GDPCH UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJH/DW;

MODEL MIGSH = WH WS DTKH STKH GDPCH US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSH/DW;

MODEL MIGKH = WH WK DTKH STKH GDPCH UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKH/DW;

MODEL MIGSLH = WH WSL DTKH STKH GDPCH USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLH/DW; MODEL MIGPH = WH WP DTKH STKH GDPCH UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPH/DW;

MODEL DTKJ = WJ INDJ INVJ GEXPJ LDTKJ/DW;

MODEL DTKS = WS LLHS INVS GEXPS LDTKS/DW;

MODEL DTKK = WK LLHK INVK GEXPK LDTKK/DW;

MODEL DTKSL = WSL LLHSL INVSL GEXPSL LDTKSL/DW;

MODEL DTKP = WP LLHP INVP GEXPP LDTKP/DW;

MODEL STKJ = WJ MIGIN MIGOUT MIGEXJ POPJ LSTKJ/DW;

MODEL STKS = WS MIGJS MIGSJ MIGSPLJ MIGEXS POPS LSTKS/DW;

MODEL STKK = WK MIGJK MIGKJ MIGKLJ MIGEXK POPK LSTKK/DW;

MODEL STKSL = WSL MIGJSL MIGSLJ MIGSLLJ MIGEXSL POPSL LSTKSL/DW;

MODEL STKP = WP MIGJP MIGPJ MIGPLJ MIGEXP POPP LSTKP/DW;

MODEL WJ = UMRJ DTKJ STKJ KHMJ INFJ LWJ/DW;

MODEL WS = UMRS DTKS STKS KHMS INFS LWS/DW;

MODEL WK = UMRK UK KHMK INFK LWK/DW;

MODEL WSL = UMRSL USL KHMSL INFSL LWSL/DW;

MODEL WP = UMRP DTKP STKP KHMP INFP LWP/DW;

MODEL CONJ = DICJ INCMJ DEVJ SB LCONJ/DW;

MODEL CONS = DICS INCMS DEVS SB LCONS/DW;

MODEL CONK = DICK INCMK DEVK SB LCONK/DW;

MODEL CONSL = DICSL INCMSL DEVSL SB LCONSL/DW;

MODEL CONP = DICP INCMP DEVP SB LCONP/DW;

MODEL INVJ = SB WJ GRDPJ NTK LINVJ/DW;

MODEL INVS = SB WS GRDPS NTK LINVS/DW;

MODEL INVK = SB WK GRDPK NTK LINVK/DW;

MODEL INVSL = SB WSL GRDPSL NTK LINVSL/DW;

MODEL INVP = SB WP GRDPP NTK LINVP/DW;

MODEL DEVJ = MIGJM MIGJSP MIGJAS MIGJH MIGJNL LDEVJ/DW;

MODEL DEVS = MIGSM MIGSSP MIGSAS MIGSH MIGSNL LDEVS/DW;

MODEL DEVK = MIGKM MIGKSP MIGKAS MIGKH MIGKNL LDEVK/DW;

MODEL DEVSL = MIGSLM MIGSLSP MIGSLAS MIGSLH MIGSLNL LDEVSL/DW;

MODEL DEVP = MIGPM MIGPSP MIGPAS MIGPH MIGPNL LDEVP/DW; Identity MIGIN = MIGSJ+MIGKJ+MIGSLJ+MIGPJ;

Identity MIGOUT = MIGJS+MIGJK+MIGJSL+MIGJP; Identity MIGEXJ = MIGJM+MIGJAS+MIGJSP+MIGJH; Identity MIGEXS = MIGSM+MIGSAS+MIGSSP+MIGSH; Identity MIGEXK = MIGKM+MIGKAS+MIGKSP+MIGKH; Identity MIGEXSL= MIGSLM+MIGSLAS+MIGSLSP+MIGSLH; Identity MIGEXP = MIGPM+MIGPAS+MIGPSP+MIGPH; Identity UJ = STKJ-DTKJ; Identity US = STKS-DTKS; Identity UK = STKK-DTKK; Identity USL = STKSL-DTKSL; Identity UP = STKP-DTKP; Identity GRDPJ = CONJ+INVJ+GEXJ+EXPJ-IMPJ; Identity GRDPS = CONS+INVS+GEXS+ EXPS-IMPS; Identity GRDPK = CONK+INVK+GEXK+ EXPK-IMPK; Identity GRDPSL = CONSL+INVSL+GEXSL+ EXPSL-IMPSL;

(14)

Identity GRDPP = CONP+INVP+GEXP+ EXPP-IMPP; Identity DICJ = GRDPJ-TAXJ;

Identity DICS = GRDPS-TAXS; Identity DICK = GRDPK-TAXK; Identity DICSL = GRDPSL-TAXSL; Identity DICP = GRDPP-TAXP;

RUN;

QUIT;

*) Program estimasi parameter model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia yang sesuai

dengan proposal penelitian.

(15)

Lampiran

3b. Program Estimasi Parameter Model Ekonomi Migrasi

Indonesia Menggunakan Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS

dengan Program SAS/ETS Versi 9

data D1;

set safrida;

WSP1 = WSP*NTKSP; WM1 = WM*NTKM; WH1 = WH*NTKH; NEXJ = EXPJ-IMPJ; NEXS = EXPS-IMPS; NEXK = EXPK-IMPK; NEXSL = EXPSL-IMPSL; NEXP = EXPP-IMPP; DEVJ1 = DEVJ*NTK; DEVS1 = DEVS*NTK; DEVK1 = DEVK*NTK; DEVSL1 = DEVSL*NTK;

DEVP1 = DEVP*NTK; DEVJ2 = (DEVJ1/IHKJ)*100; DEVS2 = (DEVS1/IHKS)*100; DEVK2 = (DEVK1/IHKK)*100; DEVSL2 = (DEVSL1/IHKSL)*100; DEVP2 = (DEVP1/IHKP)*100; GDPCAS1 = GDPCAS*NTK; LGDPCAS1 = LAG(GDPCAS1); GRDPCJ = GRDPJ/POPJ; GRDPCS = GRDPS/POPS; GRDPCK = GRDPK/POPK; GRDPCSL = GRDPSL/POPSL; GRDPCP = GRDPP/POPP; LMIGSJ = LAG(MIGSJ); LMIGKJ = LAG(MIGKJ); LMIGSLJ = LAG(MIGSLJ); LMIGPJ = LAG(MIGPJ); LMIGJS = LAG(MIGJS); LMIGJK = LAG(MIGJK); LMIGJSL = LAG(MIGJSL); LMIGJP = LAG(MIGJP); LMIGJM = LAG(MIGJM); LMIGJAS = LAG(MIGJAS); LMIGJSP = LAG(MIGJSP); LMIGJH = LAG(MIGJH); LMIGSM = LAG(MIGSM); LMIGSAS = LAG(MIGSAS); LMIGSSP = LAG(MIGSSP); LMIGSH = LAG(MIGSH); LMIGKM = LAG(MIGKM); LMIGKAS = LAG(MIGKAS); LMIGKSP = LAG(MIGKSP); LMIGKH = LAG(MIGKH); LMIGSLM = LAG(MIGSLM); LMIGSLAS = LAG(MIGSLAS); LMIGSLSP = LAG(MIGSLSP); LMIGSLH = LAG(MIGSLH); LMIGPM = LAG(MIGPM); LMIGPAS = LAG(MIGPAS); LMIGPSP = LAG(MIGPSP); LMIGPH = LAG(MIGPH); LDTKJ = LAG(DTKJ); LDTKS = LAG(DTKS); LDTKK = LAG(DTKK); LDTKSL = LAG(DTKSL); LDTKP = LAG(DTKP); LSTKJ = LAG(STKJ); LSTKS = LAG(STKS); LSTKK = LAG(STKK); LSTKSL = LAG(STKSL); LSTKP = LAG(STKP); LWJ = LAG(WJ); LWS = LAG(WS); LWK = LAG(WK); LWSL = LAG(WSL); LWP = LAG(WP); LCONJ = LAG(CONJ); LCONS = LAG(CONS); LCONK = LAG(CONK); LCONSL = LAG(CONSL); LCONP = LAG(CONP); LINVJ = LAG(INVJ); LINVS = LAG(INVS); LINVK = LAG(INVK); LINVSL = LAG(INVSL); LINVP = LAG(INVP); LDEVP = LAG(DEVP); LDEVJ2 = LAG(DEVJ2); LDEVS2 = LAG(DEVS2); LDEVK1 = LAG(DEVK1); LDEVK2 = LAG(DEVK2); LDEVSL2 = LAG(DEVSL2); LDEVP2 = LAG(DEVP2); LDICS = LAG(DICS); LDICSL = LAG(DICSL); LPOPJ = LAG(POPJ); LSBRP = LAG(SBRP); LGEXIS = LAG(GEXIS); LGEXPJ = LAG(GEXPJ); LINFP = LAG(INFP); LINFS = LAG(INFS); LGEXIK = LAG(GEXIK); PGEXIK = GEXIK-LGEXIK; LGEXIP = LAG(GEXIP); PGEXIP = GEXIP-LGEXIP; SBP = SBRP-LSBRP; LSB = LAG(SB); PSB = (SB-LSB)/LSB; LPOPJ = LAG(POPJ); LPOPS = LAG(POPS); MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ; MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ; MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ; MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ; NMIGS = MIGINS-MIGOUTS; LNMIGS = LAG(NMIGS); INCMJ = MIGIN*GRDPCJ; INCMS = MIGINS*GRDPCS; INCMK = MIGINK*GRDPCK; INCMSL = MIGINSL*GRDPCSL; INCMP = MIGINP*GRDPCP; LINCMJ = LAG(INCMJ);

(16)

LINCMK = LAG(INCMK); LINCMP = LAG(INCMP); LUMRS = LAG(UMRS); LDTKH = LAG(DTKH); LLLHK = LAG(LLHK); PLLHK = LLHK-LLLHK; PDTKH = DTKH-LDTKH; LLLHP = LAG(LLHP); PLLHP = LLHP-LLLHP; PUMRS = UMRS-LUMRS; PWP = WP-LWP; LMIGINS = LAG(MIGINS); LMIGOUTS = LAG(MIGOUTS); LMIGEXS = LAG(MIGEXS); GDPCSP1 = GDPCSP*NTK; GDPSP1 = GDPSP*NTK; PWM1 = WM1-LAG(WM1); PSTKJ = STKJ-LSTKJ; LDIKTSL = LAG(DIKTSL); PSTKSL = STKSL-LSTKSL;

RUN;

PROC SYSLIN DATA=D1 2SLS;

ENDOGENOUS MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGINS MIGINK MIGINSL MIGINP MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGOUTS MIGOUTK MIGOUTSL MIGOUTP MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL INVP DEVJ DEVS DEVK DEVSL DEVP GRDPCJ GRDPCS GRDPCK GRDPCSL GRDPCP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP;

INSTRUMENTS MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ LLHS LLHK LLHSL LLHP POPJ POPS POPK POPSL POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP GDPCAS GDPAS NTKAS NTKSP NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS GEXIK GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS INFK INFSL INFP EXPJ IMPJ EXPS IMPS EXPK IMPK EXPSL IMPSL EXPP IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK TAXSL TAXP SB NTK IHKJ IHKS IHKK IHKSL IHKP GRDPCJ GRDPCS GRDPCK GRDPCSL GRDPCP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP;

MODEL MIGSJ = WS DTKJ DIKTS LMIGSJ/DW;

MODEL MIGKJ = PWK DTKJ DIKTK LMIGKJ/DW;

MODEL MIGSLJ = WSL DTKJ DIKTSL LMIGSLJ/DW;

MODEL MIGPJ = WP DTKJ DIKTP DIKRP LMIGPJ/DW;

MODEL MIGJS = GRDPJ DTKJ DTKS POPJ GEXIS/DW;

MODEL MIGJK = DTKK WJ POPJ PGEXIK LMIGJK/DW;

MODEL MIGJSL = DTKSL STKJ GEXISL/DW;

MODEL MIGJP = LWJ PWP UJ GEXIP/DW;

MODEL MIGJM = WM1 GRDPJ DTKM STKM DTKJ DIKRJ DIKTJ/DW;

MODEL MIGSM = WM1 GRDPCS DTKM US DIKRS DIKTS/DW;

MODEL MIGKM = WM1 WK DTKM DTKK DIKTK/DW;

MODEL MIGSLM = WM1 WSL DTKM DIKTSL/DW NOINT;

MODEL MIGPM = WM1 GRDPP DTKM DTKP DIKRP DIKTP/DW NOINT;

MODEL MIGJAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPJ STKJ DIKRJ DIKTJ/DW ;

MODEL MIGSAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPS US DIKTS/DW;

MODEL MIGKAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPK STKK DIKTK/DW;

MODEL MIGSLAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPSL STKSL DIKTSL/DW;

MODEL MIGPAS = LGDPCAS1 PGRDPP UP DIKRP DIKTP/DW;

MODEL MIGJSP = GDPCSP1 LDTKSP PSTKJ DIKTJ LMIGJSP/DW NOINT;

MODEL MIGSSP = GDPCSP1 LDTKSP WS DTKS LMIGSSP/DW NOINT;

MODEL MIGKSP = WSP1 LDTKSP GRDPK STKK DIKTK LMIGKSP/DW NOINT;

MODEL MIGSLSP = WSP1 DTKSP WSL LDIKTSL LMIGSLSP/DW;

MODEL MIGPSP = WSP1 WP DTKSP STKP DIKRP DIKTP LMIGPSP/DW;

MODEL MIGJH = WH1 STKJ PDTKH DIKTJ/DW;

MODEL MIGSH = WH1 GRDPS DTKH DTKS DIKTS/DW;

MODEL MIGKH = WH1 WK UK PDTKH DIKTK LMIGKH/DW;

MODEL MIGSLH = WH1 DTKH PSTKSL DIKTSL/DW NOINT;

MODEL MIGPH = WH1 WP UP PDTKH DIKRP DIKTP/DW;

MODEL DTKJ = INDJ LINVJ GEXPJ LDTKJ/DW;

MODEL DTKS = INVS LLHS GEXPS LDTKS/DW;

(17)

MODEL DTKSL = LINVSL LLHSL GEXPSL LDTKSL/DW NOINT;

MODEL DTKP = INVP PLLHP GEXPP/DW;

MODEL STKJ = WJ MIGIN MIGOUT MIGEXJ POPJ LSTKJ/DW;

MODEL STKS = WS LNMIGS MIGEXS POPS LSTKS/DW NOINT;

MODEL STKK = WK MIGINK MIGOUTK MIGEXK POPK LSTKK/DW;

MODEL STKSL = WSL MIGINSL MIGOUTSL MIGEXSL POPSL/DW;

MODEL STKP = WP MIGINP MIGOUTP MIGEXP POPP LSTKP/DW;

MODEL WJ = UMRJ DTKJ STKJ KHMJ INFJ LWJ/DW;

MODEL WS = PUMRS DTKS STKS KHMS INFS LWS/DW;

MODEL WK = UMRK LDTKK LSTKK KHMK INFK LWK/DW;

MODEL WSL = UMRSL DTKSL STKSL KHMSL INFSL/DW NOINT;

MODEL WP = UMRP LDTKP STKP LINFP LWP/DW;

MODEL CONJ = DICJ LINCMJ DEVJ2 LSB/DW;

MODEL CONS = LDICS INCMS DEVS2 SB LCONS/DW;

MODEL CONK = DICK LINCMK LDEVK2 SB LCONK/DW;

MODEL CONSL = LDICSL INCMSL DEVSL2 SB LCONSL/DW;

MODEL CONP = LDICP INCMP DEVP2 SB/DW NOINT;

MODEL INVJ = SB WJ NTK LINVJ/DW;

MODEL INVS = SB WS NTK LINVS/DW;

MODEL INVK = SB WK GRDPK LINVK/DW;

MODEL INVSL = PSB WSL PGRDPSL NTK/DW NOINT;

MODEL INVP = LSB LWP GRDPP NTK/DW;

MODEL DEVJ2 = MIGEXJ MIGJNL LDEVJ2/DW;

MODEL DEVS2 = MIGEXS MIGSNL LDEVS2/DW;

MODEL DEVK2 = MIGEXK MIGKNL/DW;

MODEL DEVSL2 = MIGEXSL MIGSLNL/DW;

MODEL DEVP2 = MIGEXP MIGPNL LDEVP2/DW; Identity MIGINJ = MIGSJ+MIGKJ+MIGSLJ+MIGPJ; Identity MIGOUTJ = MIGJS+MIGJK+MIGJSL+MIGJP; Identity MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS;

Identity MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ; Identity MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; Identity MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ; Identity MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; Identity MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ; Identity MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; Identity MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ;

Identity MIGEXJ = MIGJM+MIGJAS+MIGJSP+MIGJH; Identity MIGEXS = MIGSM+MIGSAS+MIGSSP+MIGSH; Identity MIGEXK = MIGKM+MIGKAS+MIGKSP+MIGKH; Identity MIGEXSL = MIGSLM+MIGSLAS+MIGSLSP+MIGSLH; Identity MIGEXP = MIGPM+MIGPAS+MIGPSP+MIGPH; Identity UJ = STKJ-DTKJ; Identity US = STKS-DTKS; Identity UK = STKK-DTKK; Identity USL = STKSL-DTKSL; Identity UP = STKP-DTKP; Identity GRDPJ = CONJ+INVJ+GEXJ+NEXJ; Identity GRDPS = CONS+INVS+GEXS+NEXS; Identity GRDPK = CONK+INVK+GEXK+NEXK; Identity GRDPSL = CONSL+INVSL+GEXSL+NEXSL; Identity GRDPP = CONP+INVP+GEXP+NEXP; Identity DICJ = GRDPJ-TAXJ;

Identity DICS = GRDPS-TAXS; Identity DICK = GRDPK-TAXK; Identity DICSL = GRDPSL-TAXSL; Identity DICP = GRDPP-TAXP;

RUN; QUIT;

(18)

Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia

Menggunakan Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS dengan

Program SAS/ETS Versi 9

The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MIGSJ Dependent Variable MIGSJ Label MIGSJ Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean

Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.08E12 2.699E11 790.74 <.0001 Error 16 5.4608E9 3.413E8

Corrected Total 20 1.085E12

Root MSE 18474.3496 R-Square 0.99497 Dependent Mean 1357492.13 Adj R-Sq 0.99371 Coeff Var 1.36092

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -50824.3 164014.2 -0.31 0.7607 Intercept WS 1 -0.28635 0.109753 -2.61 0.0190 WS DTKJ 1 0.003347 0.005068 0.66 0.5184 DTKJ DIKTS 1 0.002039 0.037771 0.05 0.9576 DIKTS LMIGSJ 1 0.994103 0.060165 16.52 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.745123 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.115578

(19)

The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MIGJS Dependent Variable MIGJS Label MIGJS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean

Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 4.345E11 8.689E10 6.15 0.0027 Error 15 2.118E11 1.412E10

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 1428856 1730595 0.83 0.4219 Intercept GRDPJ 1 -1.35311 0.402314 -3.36 0.0043 GRDPJ DTKJ 1 -0.05562 0.052532 -1.06 0.3064 DTKJ DTKS 1 0.253924 0.180569 1.41 0.1800 DTKS POPJ 1 9.163567 26.13908 0.35 0.7308 POPJ GEXIS 1 113.3739 66.97203 1.69 0.1111 GEXIS Durbin-Watson 1.532206 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.216163

(20)

The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MIGJM Dependent Variable MIGJM Label MIGJM Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean

Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 7 1.644E10 2.3492E9 4.30 0.0113 Error 13 7.0959E9 5.4584E8

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -615151 867748.1 -0.71 0.4909 Intercept WM1 1 0.027936 0.016615 1.68 0.1165 GRDPJ 1 -0.23620 0.121275 -1.95 0.0734 GRDPJ DTKM 1 53.50510 70.95580 0.75 0.4643 DTKM STKM 1 -1.99678 80.84512 -0.02 0.9807 STKM DTKJ 1 -0.00820 0.007636 -1.07 0.3025 DTKJ DIKRJ 1 0.036219 0.040678 0.89 0.3894 DIKRJ DIKTJ 1 -0.02802 0.025495 -1.10 0.2918 DIKTJ Durbin-Watson 2.322956 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.18019

(21)

The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DTKJ Dependent Variable DTKJ Label DTKJ Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 20694651 6080420 3.40 0.0036 Intercept INDJ 1 429.4634 192.5536 2.23 0.0404 INDJ LINVJ 1 0.282787 8.434247 0.03 0.9737 GEXPJ 1 309.7854 122.2730 2.53 0.0221 GEXPJ LDTKJ 1 0.422479 0.177443 2.38 0.0300 Durbin-Watson 1.828539 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.023255

(22)

The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CONJ Dependent Variable CONJ Label CONJ Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 13157.11 39461.76 0.33 0.7432 Intercept DICJ 1 0.621406 0.100357 6.19 <.0001 DICJ LINCMJ 1 0.000974 0.000847 1.15 0.2671 DEVJ2 1 0.002188 0.004006 0.55 0.5924 LSB 1 -1169.70 2008.303 -0.58 0.5684 Durbin-Watson 1.11043 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.440174

(23)

The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEVJ2 Dependent Variable DEVJ2 Label

Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -1114170 899244.0 -1.24 0.2322 Intercept MIGEXJ 1 3.783781 7.853476 0.48 0.6361 MIGEXJ MIGJNL 1 125.0724 44.97650 2.78 0.0128 MIGJNL LDEVJ2 1 0.405247 0.200304 2.02 0.0591 Durbin-Watson 2.014388 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.04175

(24)

Lampiran 5. Program Validasi Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun

2001-2006 Menggunakan Prosedur SIMNLIN Metode Newton

dengan Program SAS/ETS Versi 9.

data D1;

set safrida;

WSP1 = WSP*NTKSP; WM1 = WM*NTKM; WH1 = WH*NTKH; NEXJ = EXPJ-IMPJ; NEXS = EXPS-IMPS; NEXK = EXPK-IMPK; NEXSL = EXPSL-IMPSL; NEXP = EXPP-IMPP; DEVJ1 = DEVJ*NTK; DEVS1 = DEVS*NTK; DEVK1 = DEVK*NTK; DEVSL1 = DEVSL*NTK;

DEVP1 = DEVP*NTK; DEVJ2 = (DEVJ1/IHKJ)*100; DEVS2 = (DEVS1/IHKS)*100; DEVK2 = (DEVK1/IHKK)*100; DEVSL2 = (DEVSL1/IHKSL)*100; DEVP2 = (DEVP1/IHKP)*100; GDPCAS1 = GDPCAS*NTKAS; LGDPCAS = LAG(GDPCAS); GRDPCJ = GRDPJ/POPJ; GRDPCS = GRDPS/POPS; GRDPCK = GRDPK/POPK; GRDPCSL = GRDPSL/POPSL; GRDPCP = GRDPP/POPP; LMIGSJ = LAG(MIGSJ); LMIGKJ = LAG(MIGKJ); LMIGSLJ = LAG(MIGSLJ); LMIGPJ = LAG(MIGPJ); LMIGJS = LAG(MIGJS); LMIGJK = LAG(MIGJK); LMIGJSL = LAG(MIGJSL); LMIGJP = LAG(MIGJP); LMIGJM = LAG(MIGJM); LMIGJAS = LAG(MIGJAS); LMIGJSP = LAG(MIGJSP); LMIGJH = LAG(MIGJH); LMIGSM = LAG(MIGSM); LMIGSAS = LAG(MIGSAS); LMIGSSP = LAG(MIGSSP); LMIGSH = LAG(MIGSH); LMIGKM = LAG(MIGKM); LMIGKAS = LAG(MIGKAS); LMIGKSP = LAG(MIGKSP); LMIGKH = LAG(MIGKH); LMIGSLM = LAG(MIGSLM); LMIGSLAS = LAG(MIGSLAS); LMIGSLSP = LAG(MIGSLSP); LMIGSLH = LAG(MIGSLH); LMIGPM = LAG(MIGPM); LMIGPAS = LAG(MIGPAS); LMIGPSP = LAG(MIGPSP); LMIGPH = LAG(MIGPH); LDTKJ = LAG(DTKJ); LDTKS = LAG(DTKS); LDTKK = LAG(DTKK); LDTKSL = LAG(DTKSL); LDTKP = LAG(DTKP); LSTKJ = LAG(STKJ); LSTKS = LAG(STKS); LSTKK = LAG(STKK); LSTKSL = LAG(STKSL); LSTKP = LAG(STKP); LWJ = LAG(WJ); LWS = LAG(WS); LWK = LAG(WK); LWSL = LAG(WSL); LWP = LAG(WP); LCONJ = LAG(CONJ); LCONS = LAG(CONS); LCONK = LAG(CONK); LCONSL = LAG(CONSL); LCONP = LAG(CONP); LINVJ = LAG(INVJ); LINVS = LAG(INVS); LINVK = LAG(INVK); LINVSL = LAG(INVSL); LINVP = LAG(INVP); LDEVP = LAG(DEVP); LDEVJ2 = LAG(DEVJ2); LDEVS2 = LAG(DEVS2); LDEVK1 = LAG(DEVK1); LDEVK2 = LAG(DEVK2); LDEVSL2 = LAG(DEVSL2); LDEVP2 = LAG(DEVP2); LDICS = LAG(DICS); LDICSL = LAG(DICSL); LPOPJ = LAG(POPJ); LSBRP = LAG(SBRP); LGEXIS = LAG(GEXIS); LGEXPJ = LAG(GEXPJ); LINFP = LAG(INFP); LINFS = LAG(INFS); LGEXIK = LAG(GEXIK); PGEXIK = GEXIK-LGEXIK; LGEXIP = LAG(GEXIP); PGEXIP = GEXIP-LGEXIP; SBP = SBRP-LSBRP; LSB = LAG(SB); PSB = (SB-LSB)/LSB; LPOPJ = LAG(POPJ); LPOPS = LAG(POPS); MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ; MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ; MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ; MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ; NMIGS = MIGINS-MIGOUTS; LNMIGS = LAG(NMIGS); INCMJ = MIGIN*GRDPCJ; INCMS = MIGINS*GRDPCS; INCMK = MIGINK*GRDPCK; INCMSL = MIGINSL*GRDPCSL; INCMP = MIGINP*GRDPCP; LINCMJ = LAG(INCMJ);

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LINCMK = LAG(INCMK); LINCMP = LAG(INCMP); LUMRS = LAG(UMRS); LDTKH = LAG(DTKH); LLLHK = LAG(LLHK); PLLHK = LLHK-LLLHK; PDTKH = DTKH-LDTKH; LLLHP = LAG(LLHP); PLLHP = LLHP-LLLHP; PUMRS = UMRS-LUMRS; PWP = WP-LWP; LMIGINS = LAG(MIGINS); LMIGOUTS = LAG(MIGOUTS); LMIGEXS = LAG(MIGEXS); GDPCSP1 = GDPCSP*NTK; GDPSP1 = GDPSP*NTK; RUN;

PROC SIMNLIN DATA=D1 SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL;

ENDOGENOUS MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGINS MIGINK MIGINSL MIGINP MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGOUTS MIGOUTK MIGOUTSL MIGOUTP MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL INVP DEVJ2 DEVS2 DEVK2 DEVSL2 DEVP2;

INSTRUMENTS MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ LLHS LLHK LLHSL LLHP POPJ POPS POPK POPSL POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP GDPCAS GDPAS NTKAS NTKSP NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS GEXIK GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS INFK INFSL INFP EXPJ IMPJ EXPS IMPS EXPK IMPK EXPSL IMPSL EXPP IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK TAXSL TAXP SB NTK IHKJ IHKS IHKK IHKSL IHKP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP; PARAMETERS A0 -50824.3 A1 -0.28635 A2 0.003347 A3 0.002039 A4 0.994103 B0 -28483.6 B1 -0.02539 B2 0.001880 B3 -0.08243 B4 0.749858 C0 12269.48 C1 -0.03879 C2 0.000445 C3 0.056787 C4 0.839105 D0 -77888.7 D1 -0.05759 D2 0.001350 D3 0.055758 D4 0.014407 D5 0.910275 E0 1428856 E1 -1.35311 E2 -0.05562 E3 0.253924 E4 9.163567 E5 113.3739 F0 -4441.74 F1 0.014055 F2 -0.07515 F3 1.343089 F4 38.01973 F5 0.834580 G0 87702.23 G1 0.039016 G2 0.000272 G3 30.48324 H0 330586.5 H1 -0.54310 H2 0.761621 H3 0.038132 H4 172.2293 I0 -615151 I1 0.027936 I2 -0.23620 I3 53.50510 I4 -1.99678 I5 -0.00820 I6 0.036219 I7 -0.02802 J0 -66160.9 J1 0.008362 J2 -16060.4 J3 12.54829 J4 0.012167 J5 0.002063 J6 -0.02378 K0 -116582 K1 0.016314 K2 -0.26561 K3 46.14460 K4 -0.02529 K5 -0.75449 L1 0.000201 L2 -0.00241 L3 0.171641 L4 -0.00431 M1 0.001240 M2 -0.06776 M3 6.985859 M4 -0.02672 M5 0.033584 M6 0.254378 N0 -533905 N1 0.001659 N2 -0.28533 N3 0.006168 N4 0.015402 N5 0.033970 O0 50.01316 O1 3.121E-7 O2 -0.00032 O3 0.000094 O4 5.86E-6 P0 -431.101 P1 3.671E-6 P2 -0.00140 P3 0.000168 P4 -0.00030 Q0 -89.7794 Q1 5.333E-7 Q2 -0.00015 Q3 0.000030 Q4 -0.00008 R0 -8069.23 R1 0.000038 R2 -0.02704 R3 0.003824 R4 0.002927 R5 0.022117 S1 5.329E-6 S2 1.917251 S3 0.000742 S4 -0.00164 S5 0.721251 T1 0.000028 T2 4.442751 T3 -0.03398 T4 -5.43E-6 T5 0.573981 U1 0.000503 U2 0.922617 U3 -0.11671 U4 0.000547 U5 0.008661 U6 0.607877 V0 -16.8280 V1 7.24E-6 V2 0.088653 V3 -0.00066 V4 0.000117

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V5 0.429379 W0 -15901.1 W1 0.000209 W2 -0.01543 W3 1.750368 W4 0.001731 W5 0.002105 W6 -0.00548 W7 0.154551 X0 -15594.9 X1 0.000194 X2 0.000401 X3 2.871335 X4 -0.00327 Y0 1327.521 Y1 0.000205 Y2 -0.01257 Y3 0.125246 Y4 -0.00008 Y5 0.000370 Z0 1917.912 Z1 0.000262 Z2 -0.01046 Z3 0.006387 Z4 0.753341 Z5 -0.01675 Z6 0.084084

AA1 2.848E-6 AA2 0.001556 AA3 0.000019 AA4 -0.00007

AB0 2.507878 AB1 0.000113 AB2 -0.00435 AB3 0.002276 AB4 .659025

AB5 6.859E-6 AB6 0.003177

AC0 20694651 AC1 429.4634 AC2 0.282787 AC3 309.7854 AC4 .422479

AD0 1630637 AD1 10.73352 AD2 0.226328 AD3 41.10451 AD4 .862737

AE0 656436.9 AE1 7.216544 AE2 0.000246 AE3 13.79245 AE4 .856420

AF1 12.06135 AF2 0.907708 AF3 242.8601 AF4 0.759644

AG0 6297321 AG1 1.167640 AG2 0.440997 AG3 281.8893

AH0 -3130294 AH1 0.633899 AH2 0.193764 AH3 -1.97155 AH4 -.63014

AH5 228.9655 AH6 0.740132

AI1 3.829520 AI2 0.200628 AI3 -0.31142 AI4 105.0001 AI5 .692715

AJ0 536182.7 AJ1 1.033700 AJ2 1.242416 AJ3 -4.53027 AJ4 -.68941

AJ5 321.4265 AJ6 0.000079

AK0 -2884435 AK1 0.482336 AK2 2.057315 AK3 -0.29073 K4 -123.780

AK5 545.5987

AL0 270611.5 AL1 1.320032 AL2 1.538432 AL3 -0.37358

AL4 -6.46752 AL5 373.9337 AL6 0.014446

AM0 182705.9 AM1 1.418945 AM2 0.004400 AM3 -0.00884

AM4 0.308878 AM5 368.5751 AM6 0.268983

AN0 -263515 AN1 0.087516 AN2 0.061394 AN3 -0.04226 AN4 .295898

AN5 62.08226 AN6 0.796530

AO0 -125778 AO1 0.597685 AO2 0.125442 AO3 -0.08880 AO4 .792605

AO5 69.76673 AO6 0.216742

AP1 0.850215 AP2 0.012186 AP3 -0.00464 AP4 0.718127

AP5 353.1327

AQ0 -74077.5 AQ1 1.008391 AQ2 0.023521 AQ3 -0.00857 AQ4 375.1849 AQ5 0.500747

AR0 13157.11 AR1 0.621406 AR2 0.000974 AR3 0.002188

AR4 -1169.70

AS0 9321.724 AS1 0.356637 AS2 0.000520 AS3 0.020068 AS4 -638.237 AS5 0.343318

AT0 -1551.88 AT1 0.331624 AT2 0.000193 AT3 0.000046 AT4 -28.0094 AT5 0.227917

AU0 4298.517 AU1 0.573925 AU2 0.010863 AU3 0.178412

AU4 -302.878 AU5 0.101428

AV1 0.154612 AV2 0.020518 AV3 0.001982 AV4 -162.201

AW0 86100.76 AW1 -3192.71 AW2 -0.02715 AW3 2.431678 AW4 0.351940

AX0 56720.18 AX1 -1707.75 AX2 -0.12845 AX3 3.883950 AX4 0.217850

AY0 7431.285 AY1 -246.774 AY2 -0.00191 AY3 0.012698 AY4 0.583846

AZ1 -4259.08 AZ2 -0.01362 AZ3 0.39223 AZ4 1.580860

BA0 8314.003 BA1 -9.44004 BA2 -0.09048 BA3 0.560636 BA4 1.778928

BB0 -1114170 BB1 3.783781 BB2 125.0724 BB3 0.405247 BC0 -64615.8 BC1 3.822291 BC2 93.04336 BC3 0.372626 BD0 -44152.5 BD1 1.053034 BD2 153.8439

BE0 -1420.23 BE1 2.455797 BE2 139.4550

BF0 -61903.2 BF1 0.239194 BF2 88.81955 BF3 0.685374; MIGSJ = A0+A1*WS+A2*DTKJ+A3*DIKTS+A4*LAG(MIGSJ); MIGKJ = B0+B1*(WP-LAG(WP))+B2*DTKJ+B3*DIKTK+B4*LAG(MIGKJ); MIGSLJ = C0+C1*WSL+C2*DTKJ+C3*DIKTSL+C4*LAG(MIGSLJ); MIGPJ = D0+D1*WP+D2*DTKJ+D3*DIKTP+D4*DIKRP+D5*LAG(MIGPJ); MIGJS = E0+E1*GRDPJ+E2*DTKJ+E3*DTKS+E4*POPJ+E5*GEXIS; MIGJK = F0+F1*DTKK+F2*WJ+F3*POPJ+F4*(GEXIK-LAG(GEXIK))+F5*LAG(MIGJK); MIGJSL = G0+G1*DTKSL+G2*STKJ+G3*GEXISL; MIGJP = H0+H1*LAG(WJ)+H2*(WP-LAG(WP))+H3*UJ+H4*GEXIP; MIGJM = I0+I1*(WM*NTKM)+I2*GRDPJ+I3*DTKM+I4*STKM+I5*DTKJ+I6*DIKRJ+I7*DIKTJ; MIGSM = J0+J1*(WM*NTKM)+J2*GRDPCS+J3*DTKM+J4*US+J5*DIKRS+J6*DIKTS; MIGKM = K0+K1*(WM*NTKM)+K2*WK+K3*DTKM+K4*DTKK+K5*DIKTK; MIGSLM = L1*(WM*NTKM)+L2*WSL+L3*DTKM+L4*DIKTSL; MIGPM = M1*(WM*NTKM)+M2*GRDPP+M3*DTKM+M4*DTKP+M5*DIKRP+M6*DIKTP; MIGJAS = N0+N1*LAG(GDPCAS*NTK)+N2*GRDPJ+N3*STKJ+N4*DIKRJ+N5*DIKTJ;

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MIGSAS = O0+O1*LAG(GDPCAS*NTK)+O2*GRDPS+O3*US+O4*DIKTS; MIGKAS = P0+P1*LAG(GDPCAS*NTK)+P2*GRDPK+P3*STKK+P4*DIKTK; MIGSLAS = Q0+Q1*LAG(GDPCAS*NTK)+Q2*(GRDPSL)+Q3*STKSL+Q4*DIKTSL; MIGPAS = R0+R1*LAG(GDPCAS*NTK)+R2*(GRDPP-LAG(GRDPP))+R3*UP+R4*DIKRP+R5*DIKTP; MIGJSP= S1*(GDPCSP*NTK)+S2*LAG(DTKSP)+S3*(STKJ-LAG(STKJ))+S4*DIKTJ+S5*LAG(MIGJSP); MIGSSP = T1*(GDPCSP*NTK)+T2*LAG(DTKSP)+T3*WS+T4*DTKS+T5*LAG(MIGSSP); MIGKSP = U1*(WSP*NTKSP)+U2*LAG(DTKSP)+U3*GRDPK+U4*STKK+U5*DIKTK+U6*LAG(MIGKSP); MIGSLSP = V0+V1*(WSP*NTKSP)+V2*DTKSP+V3*WSL+V4*LAG(DIKTSL)+V5*LAG(MIGSLSP); MIGPSP= W0+W1*(WSP*NTKSP)+W2*WP+W3*DTKSP+W4*STKP+W5*DIKRP+W6*DIKTP+W7*LAG(MIGPSP); MIGJH = X0+X1*(WH*NTKH)+X2*STKJ+X3*(DTKH-LAG(DTKH))+X4*DIKTJ; MIGSH = Y0+Y1*(WH*NTKH)+Y2*GRDPS+Y3*DTKH+Y4*DTKS+Y5*DIKTS; MIGKH = Z0+Z1*(WH*NTKH)+Z2*WK+Z3*UK+Z4*(DTKH-LAG(DTKH))+Z5*DIKTK+Z6*LAG(MIGKH); MIGSLH = AA1*(WH*NTKH)+AA2*DTKH+AA3*(STKSL-LAG(STKSL))+AA4*(DIKTSL); MIGPH = AB0+AB1*(WH*NTKH)+AB2*WP+AB3*UP+AB4*(DTKH-LAG(DTKH))+AB5*DIKRP+AB6*DIKTP; DTKJ = AC0+AC1*INDJ+AC2*LAG(INVJ)+AC3*GEXPJ+AC4*LAG(DTKJ); DTKS = AD0+AD1*INVS+AD2*LLHS+AD3*GEXPS+AD4*LAG(DTKS); DTKK = AE0+AE1*INVK+AE2*(LLHK-LAG(LLHK))+AE3*GEXPK+AE4*LAG(DTKK); DTKSL = AF1*LAG(INVSL)+AF2*LLHSL+AF3*GEXPSL+AF4*LAG(DTKSL); DTKP = AG0+AG1*INVP+AG2*(LLHP-LAG(LLHP))+AG3*GEXPP; STKJ = AH0+AH1*WJ+AH2*MIGIN+AH3*MIGOUT+AH4*MIGEXJ+AH5*POPJ+AH6*LAG(STKJ); STKS = AI1*WS+AI2*LAG(MIGINS-MIGOUTS)+AI3*MIGEXS+AI4*POPS+AI5*LAG(STKS); STKK = J0+AJ1*WK+AJ2*MIGINK+AJ3*MIGOUTK+AJ4*MIGEXK+AJ5*POPK+AJ6*LAG(STKK); STKSL = AK0+AK1*WSL+AK2*MIGINSL+AK3*MIGOUTSL+AK4*MIGEXSL+AK5*POPSL; STKP = AL0+AL1*WP+AL2*MIGINP+AL3*MIGOUTP+AL4*MIGEXP+AL5*POPP+AL6*LAG(STKP); WJ = AM0+AM1*UMRJ+AM2*DTKJ+AM3*STKJ+AM4*KHMJ+AM5*INFJ+AM6*LAG(WJ); WS = AN0+AN1*(UMRS-LAG(UMRS))+AN2*DTKS+AN3*STKS+AN4*KHMS+AN5*INFS+AN6*LAG(WS); WK = AO0+AO1*UMRK+AO2*LAG(DTKK)+AO3*LAG(STKK)+AO4*KHMK+AO5*INFK+AO6*LAG(WK); WSL = AP1*UMRSL+AP2*DTKSL+AP3*STKSL+AP4*KHMSL+AP5*INFSL; WP = AQ0+AQ1*UMRP+AQ2*LAG(DTKP)+AQ3*STKP+AQ4*LAG(INFP)+AQ5*LAG(WP); CONJ = AR0+AR1*DICJ+AR2*LAG(MIGIN*GRDPCJ)+AR3*DEVJ2+AR4*LAG(SB); CONS = AS0+AS1*LAG(DICS)+AS2*(MIGINS*GRDPCS)+AS3*DEVS2+AS4*SB+AS5*LAG(CONS); CONK = AT0+AT1*DICK+AT2*LAG(MIGINK*GRDPCK)+AT3*LAG(DEVK2)+AT4*(SB)+AT5*LAG(CONK); CONSL = AU0+AU1*LAG(DICSL)+AU2*(MIGINSL*GRDPCSL)+AU3*DEVSL2+AU4*SB+AU5*LAG(CONSL); CONP = AV1*LAG(DICP)+AV2*(MIGINP*GRDPCP)+AV3*DEVP2+A4*SB; INVJ = AW0+AW1*SB+AW2*WJ+AW3*NTK+AW4*LAG(INVJ); INVS = AX0+AX1*SB+AX2*WS+AX3*NTK+AX4*LAG(INVS); INVK = AY0+AY1*SB+AY2*WK+AY3*GRDPK+AY4*LAG(INVK); INVSL = AZ1*(SB-LAG(SB))+AZ2*WSL+AZ3*(GRDPSL-LAG(GRDPSL))+AZ4*NTK; INVP = BA0+BA1*LAG(SB)+BA2*LAG(WP)+BA3*GRDPP+BA4*NTK; DEVJ2 = BB0+BB1*MIGEXJ+BB2*MIGJNL+BB3*LAG(DEVJ2); DEVS2 = BC0+BC1*MIGEXS+BC2*MIGSNL+BC3*LAG(DEVS2); DEVK2 = BD0+BD1*MIGEXK+BD2*MIGKNL; DEVSL2 = BE0+BE1*MIGEXSL+BE2*MIGSLNL; DEVP2 = BF0+BF1*MIGEXP+BF2*MIGPNL+BF3*LAG(DEVP2); MIGIN = MIGSJ+MIGKJ+MIGSLJ+MIGPJ; MIGOUT = MIGJS+MIGJK+MIGJSL+MIGJP; MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ; MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ; MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ; MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ; MIGEXJ = MIGJM+MIGJAS+MIGJSP+MIGJH; MIGEXS = MIGSM+MIGSAS+MIGSSP+MIGSH; MIGEXK = MIGKM+MIGKAS+MIGKSP+MIGKH; MIGEXSL = MIGSLM+MIGSLAS+MIGSLSP+MIGSLH; MIGEXP = MIGPM+MIGPAS+MIGPSP+MIGPH; UJ = STKJ-DTKJ; US = STKS-DTKS; UK = STKK-DTKK; USL = STKSL-DTKSL; UP = STKP-DTKP; GRDPJ = CONJ+INVJ+GEXJ+NEXJ; GRDPS = CONS+INVS+GEXS+NEXS; GRDPK = CONK+INVK+GEXK+NEXK;

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GRDPSL = CONSL+INVSL+GEXSL+NEXSL; GRDPP = CONP+INVP+GEXP+NEXP; DICJ = GRDPJ-TAXJ; DICS = GRDPS-TAXS; DICK = GRDPK-TAXK; DICSL = GRDPSL-TAXSL; DICP = GRDPP-TAXP; RANGE TAHUN=2001 TO 2006; RUN; QUIT;

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Lampiran 6. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun

2001-2006 Menggunakan Prosedur SIMNLIN Metode Newton

dengan Program SAS/ETS Versi 9.

The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure

Model Summary

Model Variables 98 Endogenous 98 Parameters 315 Range Variable Tahun Equations 98 Number of Statements 98 Program Lag Length 1

The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation

Data Set Options DATA= D1 Solution Summary

Variables Solved 98 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range Tahun First 2001 Last 2006 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 2.03E-13 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 6 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 7 Lagged 1 Solved 6 First 17 Last 22

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The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2001 To 2006

Descriptive Statistics

Actual Predicted

Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev MIGSJ 6 6 1578091 7433.8 1585741 12019.2 MIGKJ 6 6 249529 8320.1 250571 9803.7 MIGSLJ 6 6 204347 3423.8 206130 4834.4 MIGPJ 6 6 235926 11450.4 250901 13366.0 MIGIN 6 6 10102389 719089 2293343 7967.1 MIGINS 6 6 3739086 63454.4 4330336 296568 MIGINK 6 6 1713024 29128.5 1711956 23909.6 MIGINSL 6 6 664666 4809.1 682454 20344.8 MIGINP 6 6 776960 32714.4 590893 58503.2 MIGJS 6 6 3495882 54844.4 4087132 287992 MIGJK 6 6 1213262 11868.8 1212193 6689.4 MIGJSL 6 6 353446 6827.9 371233 22069.0 MIGJP 6 6 514413 9189.3 328347 74425.6 MIGOUT 6 6 5577027 82694.0 5998905 264653 MIGOUTS 6 6 1731847 8812.2 1739497 13343.7 MIGOUTK 6 6 325555 15898.2 326597 17369.7 MIGOUTSL 6 6 855263 34629.6 857045 33515.5 MIGOUTP 6 6 671972 11098.3 686947 13020.7 MIGJM 6 6 55905.7 25594.1 159274 39804.5 MIGJAS 6 6 174347 56036.2 262635 55234.0 MIGJSP 6 6 5929.2 4299.8 4530.2 2519.7 MIGJH 6 6 5241.8 2555.3 3206.3 2489.8 MIGEXJ 6 6 277996 78561.8 429645 89394.7 MIGSM 6 6 29621.0 13560.9 32103.5 11920.4 MIGSAS 6 6 178.5 57.1200 167.7 37.0371 MIGSSP 6 6 3141.5 2278.2 2842.1 924.5 MIGSH 6 6 2777.3 1353.9 2042.7 1072.2 MIGEXS 6 6 41878.7 15608.0 37156.0 10582.7 MIGKM 6 6 43531.5 19928.8 45559.7 10609.3 MIGKAS 6 6 623.3 200.3 587.5 30.5725 MIGKSP 6 6 4616.5 3348.0 476.7 4396.1 MIGKH 6 6 4081.5 1989.7 3868.4 981.9 MIGEXK 6 6 61886.2 23110.7 50492.3 7616.9 MIGSLM 6 6 668.2 306.1 723.2 168.1 MIGSLAS 6 6 136.0 43.7721 125.4 12.8810 MIGSLSP 6 6 71.0000 51.4237 59.5949 19.0152 MIGSLH 6 6 62.6667 30.5330 71.3050 8.6863 MIGEXSL 6 6 1094.8 378.6 979.4 170.7 MIGPM 6 6 20346.0 9314.6 11327.5 11600.7 MIGPAS 6 6 9843.0 3163.6 8232.0 3016.9 MIGPSP 6 6 2157.7 1564.7 1928.0 1097.0 MIGPH 6 6 1907.7 930.0 1180.3 615.5 MIGEXP 6 6 39851.0 12767.9 22667.8 13560.3 DTKJ 6 6 55530890 1316711 55534083 991766 DTKS 6 6 18813574 444390 18939400 627515 DTKK 6 6 5172858 171234 5232402 120775 DTKSL 6 6 6037787 250921 6444985 461735 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted

Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev

DTKP 6 6 7479317 243142 7571327 283169 STKJ 6 6 61653026 1912528 56526198 501544 STKS 6 6 20819081 785985 20954560 1056675 STKK 6 6 5588626 239910 5606818 173510 STKSL 6 6 6824794 312097 6866735 348423 STKP 6 6 7976817 311199 7719890 386443 UJ 6 6 6121954 660358 992114 1476736 US 6 6 2005410 351516 2015160 492891 UK 6 6 415710 80602.9 374417 73332.2 USL 6 6 787094 99476.0 421750 280569 UP 6 6 497347 69245.2 148563 194129 WJ 6 6 475908 56603.3 521179 51341.7 WS 6 6 429424 16622.6 424125 26318.9 WK 6 6 559394 26917.5 559989 22606.7 WSL 6 6 447447 70007.4 458258 51140.1 WP 6 6 643032 140591 632631 155999 GRDPJ 6 6 801720 58242.9 378961 80289.3 GRDPS 6 6 260164 22539.1 322251 47840.9 GRDPK 6 6 118882 19727.2 142667 35920.3

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GRDPSL 6 6 48813.6 5145.8 132002 43802.5 GRDPP 6 6 70538.9 16223.8 184536 34742.5 DICJ 6 6 795451 57921.6 372692 80040.7 DICS 6 6 259020 22479.3 321106 47780.1 DICK 6 6 118535 19730.7 142320 35921.6 DICSL 6 6 48532.4 5150.4 131721 43816.3 DICP 6 6 69868.4 16151.8 183866 34679.8 CONJ 6 6 558482 50431.6 263657 58804.2 CONS 6 6 175812 32028.4 199128 36237.8 CONK 6 6 50579.0 9018.4 60328.9 13959.7 CONSL 6 6 59846.5 9402.1 98141.0 35332.0 CONP 6 6 79926.9 22939.2 79969.9 17839.6 INVJ 6 6 73401.2 23914.0 78922.2 13034.9 INVS 6 6 15042.0 4862.9 20697.2 6508.7 INVK 6 6 8700.7 5107.0 9495.5 2713.0 INVSL 6 6 8003.0 6593.5 21168.6 32462.7 INVP 6 6 15372.0 19650.1 77520.5 15636.3 DEVJ2 6 6 8883558 3088127 8044661 1878296 DEVS2 6 6 1235373 610827 1039811 331656 DEVK2 6 6 1950072 969969 1398792 831447 DEVSL2 6 6 31402.0 14656.1 22879.5 12438.1 DEVP2 6 6 1414979 661811 1242695 220978