Analisis Pengaruh Pajak Ekspor terhadap Kinerja Industri Kelapa Sawit di Sumatera Utara

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Lampiran 1. Data Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit (Ha) Sumatera Utara dan Harga CPO Domestik (Rp/Kg) Tahun 1985-2014

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0.846 841 8,461 0.943

Sumber : Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia, Dinas Perkebunan Sumatera Utara, Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia

Lampiran 3. Data Bulanan Ekspor CPO Sumatera Utara, Harga Ekspor CPO, Nilai Tukar, Pajak Ekspor, dan Produksi CPO Sumatera

2011 323,253,828.00 1184.37 9115 20 339258.33 303,251.80

346,397,037.00 1217 8976 25 339258.33 323,253,828.00

2012 361,613,829.00 1032.29 9120 15 345175 531,693,702.00

309,847,138.00 1073 9073 16.5 345175 361,613,829.00

407,136,574.00 1088.72 9219 16.5 345175 309,847,138.00

299,883,094.00 1147.99 9230 18 345175 407,136,574.00

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Sumber : Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia, Dinas Perkebunan Sumatera Utara, Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, Pusat Statistik

Ekonomi, Data Statistik Perkebunan Sumatera Utara

327,679,031.00 1169.58 9480 19.5 345175 226,502,722.00

2013 503,458,277.00 780.26 9738 7.5 379100 522,882,529.00

476,696,132.00 815.12 9733 9 379100 503,458,277.00

2014 347,420,573.00 865 12210 12 396125 381,611,116.00

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Lampiran 4. Perkembangan Produksi CPO dan Volume Ekspor CPO Sumatera Utara, Indonesia, dan Dunia Tahun 1980-2012

Tahun Produksi CPO Dunia (Ton)

1980 29,858,675 721,172 662,600 3,616,636 502,902

1981 31,000,047 800,060 699,400 3,228,445 201,251

1982 35,756,699 886,820 785,800 3,776,075 262,035

1983 33,295,322 982,987 820,400 4,016,523 345,777

1984 40,399,328 1,147,190 1,003,900 4,317,579 142,660

1985 43,223,956 1,243,430 1,027,200 5,221,475 616,815

1986 46,917,489 1,350,729 1,237,800 6,242,040 608,748

1987 48,090,189 1,506,055 1,124,500 5,780,610 638,420

1988 52,956,114 1,713,335 1,314,800 5,989,056 974,566

1989 58,856,609 1,964,954 1,382,100 7,048,160 917,291

1990 60,902,077 2,412,612 1,658,900 8,071,864 1,173,883

1991 63,287,310 2,657,600 1,688,700 8,212,863 1,304,011

1992 66,886,584 3,266,250 1,826,300 8,182,294 1,252,813

1993 78,581,976 3,421,449 1,861,600 9,071,773 1,907,237

1994 81,215,495 4,008,062 1,807,700 10,807,265 1,971,707

1995 88,126,230 4,179,670 1,829,200 10,216,665 1,576,423

1996 93,036,525 4,898,658 1,864,900 11,411,185 2,013,275

1997 99,226,963 5,448,508 2,017,200 12,373,698 3,470,568

1998 98,618,825 5,930,415 2,504,000 10,454,728 1,826,287

1999 114,380,331 6,455,590 2,313,000 13,733,479 3,896,830

2000 120,473,108 7,000,508 2,363,000 14,161,936 4,688,852

2001 128,800,051 8,396,472 2,467,600 17,063,269 5,485,144

2002 135,628,811 9,622,345 2,619,300 18,816,989 7,072,124

2003 150,290,352 10,440,834 2,763,900 21,087,519 7,046,303

2004 163,434,438 10,830,389 2,453,000 23,559,446 9,565,974

2005 181,889,080 11,861,615 2,511,600 26,768,219 11,418,987

2006 195,567,399 17,350,848 3,244,900 29,956,190 11,745,954

2007 192,965,436 17,664,725 3,083,400 26,210,559 13,210,742

2008 214,385,814 17,539,788 3,200,700 33,379,262 18,141,006

2009 218,465,870 19,324,293 3,324,600 35,175,978 21,151,126

2010 224,452,909 21,958,120 3,463,600 35,341,087 20,394,174

2011 241,226,904 23,096,511 4,071,100 37,047,844 20,972,382

2012 249,532,654 26,015,518 4,142,100 37,508,484 20,296,759

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Lampiran 5. Beberapa Negara dengan Produksi Kelapa Sawit Terbesar di Dunia Tahun 2008-2012

No Negara Produksi (Ton)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Rata-rata %

1 Indonesia 17,539,788 19,324,293 19,760,011 21,449,000 23,672,000 20,349,018 44.46 2 Malaysia 17,734,441 17,564,973 16,993,717 18,911,520 18,785,030 17,997,936 39.32

3 Nigeria 1,543,761 1,387,604 1,287,509 1,530,000 1,600,000 1,469,775 3.21 Sumber : FAO, diolah Pusdatin

Lampiran 6. Provinsi Sentra Produksi Minyak Sawit di Indonesia Rata-rataTahun 2009-2012

No. Negara Produksi (Ton)

2009 2010 2011 2012 Rata-rata %

1 Riau 5,932,310 6,358,703 5,736,722 6,421,228 6,112,241 26

2 Sumatera Utara 3,158,144 3,113,006 4,071,143 4,182,052 3,631,086 16

3 Kalimantan

Tengah 1,677,976 2,251,077 2,146,160 2,771,268 2,211,620 10

4 Sumatera Selatan 2,036,553 2,227,963 2,203,275 2,603,536 2,267,832 10

5 Jambi 1,265,788 1,509,560 1,684,174 1,885,530 1,586,263 7

6 Kalimantan

Barat 862,515 1,102,860 1,434,171 1,601,200 1,250,187 6

Lainnya 4,391,007 5,394,951 5,805,784 6,550,706 5,535,612 25

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Lampiran 7. Negara Eksportir Minyak Sawit Terbesar Dunia Rata-rata Tahun 2007-2011

No. Negara Volume Ekspor CPO (Ton)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Rata-rata %

1 Indonesia 8,875,419 14,290,686 16,829,207 16,291,857 16,336,750 14,524,784 42.99 2 Malaysia 13,011,131 14,142,447 13,924,410 14,732,721 15,783,756 14,318,893 42.38 3 Belanda 1,251,807 1,500,513 1,310,774 1,168,049 1,288,157 1,303,860 3.86

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Lampiran 8. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit Sumatera Utara

Dependent Variable: LAT

Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 11/08/15 Time: 14:44 Sample: 1985 2014

Included observations: 30

Instrument specification: LAT C HCPOT LAT_5

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 170.5773 27.97232 6.098075 0.0000

HCPOT -0.014254 0.008735 -1.631925 0.1143

LAT_5 1.036941 0.057662 17.98297 0.0000

R-squared 0.965423 Mean dependent var 752.8433

Adjusted R-squared 0.962862 S.D. dependent var 237.4458

S.E. of regression 45.75868 Sum squared resid 56534.14

F-statistic 376.9362 Durbin-Watson stat 0.878784

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 56534.14

J-statistic 27.00000 Instrument rank 4

Prob(J-statistic) 0.000000

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

Obs*R-squared 27.77051 Prob. Chi-Square(18) 0.0656

Heteroskedasticity Test: White

F-statistic 1.201514 Prob. F(5,24) 0.3383

Scaled explained SS 5.610650 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.3460 0

Median -2.939095

Maximum 85.00188

Minimum -104.8908

Std. Dev. 44.15261

Skewness -0.052105

Kurtosis 3.306581

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Lampiran 9. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Produktivitas CPO Sumatera Utara

Dependent Variable: YCPOT Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:57 Sample: 1 48

Instrument specification: YCPOT C HXCPOT HCPOT YCPOT_1

C 0.448644 0.193482 2.318783 0.0251

HXCPOT -5.04E-05 6.93E-05 -0.726640 0.4713

HCPOT -7.06E-06 1.18E-05 -0.598386 0.5527

YCPOT_1 0.591534 0.135667 4.360196 0.0001

R-squared 0.912258 Mean dependent var 0.847542

Adjusted R-squared 0.937285 S.D. dependent var 0.081563

S.E. of regression 0.064627 Sum squared resid 0.183770

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000030 Second-Stage SSR 0.183770

Heteroskedasticity Test: White

Scaled explained SS 3.413061 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.9456 0

-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15

Series: Residuals Sample 1 48 Observations 48

Mean 3.70e-17

Median 0.007527

Maximum 0.130674

Minimum -0.169495

Std. Dev. 0.062530

Skewness -0.639548

Kurtosis 3.546378

Jarque-Bera 3.869235

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Lampiran 10. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Ekspor CPO Sumatera Utara

Dependent Variable: XCPOT Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 11/09/15 Time: 08:55 Sample: 1 48

Instrument specification: XCPOT C HXCPOT XRT PE PCPOT XCPOT_1

C 2.26E+09 4.95E+08 4.565193 0.0000

HXCPOT -779023.7 295849.1 -2.633179 0.0118

XRT -15414.60 21042.25 -0.732555 0.4679

PE -3678889. 7368693. -0.499259 0.6202

PCPOT 3361.132 1284.071 2.617560 0.0123

XCPOT_1 0.133465 0.118976 1.121783 0.2683

R-squared 0.934323 Mean dependent var 4.33E+08

Adjusted R-squared 0.932219 S.D. dependent var 92398857

S.E. of regression 76069641 Sum squared resid 2.43E+17

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000579 Second-Stage SSR 2.43E+17

Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey

0

-1.0e+08 -5.0e+07 250.000 5.0e+07 1.0e+08 1.5e+08

Series: Residuals Sample 1 48 Observations 48

Mean 1.43e-06

Median -9785409.

Maximum 1.41e+08

Minimum -1.21e+08

Std. Dev. 71909635 Skewness 0.111772 Kurtosis 2.017760

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Lampiran 11. Hasil Output E-views 7 Uji Kausalitas Persamaan Luas Areal Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Sumatera Utara

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 11/13/15 Time: 18:46 Sample: 1985 2014

Lags: 5

HCPOT does not Granger Cause LAT_5 1.81241 0.1749