TABLE OF CONTENTS. No. Title Media Source Page

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Daily News Update Page 1

Rida Mulyana, Dirjen Ketenagalistrikan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM), menyatakan bahwa meskipun harga dipasaran tinggi mencapai US$150 hingga US$200an per ton, tapi khusus batu bara yang diperuntukan untuk pembangkit listrik di tanah air harganya dipatok maksimal sebesar US$70 per ton.

“Harga juga kan itu, PLN beli angka US$70 kan. Artinya, negara hadir dan menjamin listrik untuk masyarakat,” kata Rida disela konferensi pers virtual, Kamis (21/10).

Rida tidak menampik tingginya harga batu bara dipasaran tentu membuat ada saja pelaku usaha yang memprioritaskan untuk ekspor. Menurutnya...

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According to him, there are stubborn individuals who force exports, although it is not clear whether these individuals have fulfilled their obligation to supply domestic needs.

For this reason, the Ministry of EMR has coordinated with the Ministry of Trans- portation to tighten the flow of supervision of barges in Indonesian waters that want to go abroad.

"We also know about barges. We'll watch.

The problem is that this barge is not only for export (coal) but also for other minerals. We have contacted the Ministry of Transportation about this," said Rida.

According to Rida, Indonesia should not experience an energy crisis because it is clear from the point of view of natural resources that the stock in the country is very abundant.

"Don't let there be a crisis. We have too many resources. Demand hasn't gone up too much, right," said Rida.

Rida explained that the Indonesian people are grateful to have coal, gas, and more than that, compared to other countries, Indonesia has arranged to better ensure supply. For example, there is a DMO (Domestic Market Obligation) for coal and a DMO for gas.

"So it can't be entirely exported even though the price is better. There is an obligation to meet domestic needs through DMO. Both the volume but also the price.

This means that the state is present and guarantees that electricity will continue to exist because it has been regulated by the government," said Rida.

Menurutnya ada saja oknum bandel yang memaksakan ekspor ekspor meskipun oknum tersebut belum jelas apakah sudah memenuhi kewajiban memasok untuk kebutuhan dalam negeri.

Untuk itu Kementerian ESDM telah melakukan koordinasi dengan Kemen- terian Perhubungan untuk mengetatkan arus pengawasan terhadap kapal-kapal tongkang diperairan Indonesia yang hendak ke luar negeri.

“Kita tahu juga soal tongkang. Kita pantengin. Soalnya tongkang ini juga nggak cuma buat ekspor (batu bara) tapi juga buat mineral lainnya. Kita sudah kontak sama Kemenhub soal ini,” ujar Rida.

Menurut Rida tidak sepatutnya Indonesia mengalami krisis energi karena sudah jelas dari sisi sumber daya alam stoknya di tanah air sangat berlimpah.

“Jangan sampai ada krisis lah. Kita berlebih kok sumberdaya. Demand juga belum nanjak banget kan,” ujar Rida.

Rida menjelaskan masyarakat Indonesia bersyukur punya batu bara, gas, dan lebih dari itu, dibanding negara lain Indonesia sudah mengatur untuk lebih menjamin pasokan. Misal ada DMO (Domestic Market Obligation) batu bara dan DMO gas.

“Jadi tidak boleh seluruhnya untuk di- ekspor meskipun harga lebih bagus. Ada kewajiban untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dalam negeri melalui DMO. Baik itu volumenya tapi juga harganya. Artinya negara hadir dan menjamin listrik tetap ada karena sudah diregulasi oleh Pemerintah,” tegas Rida.

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Adaro Energy (ADRO) boosts expansion in the new renewable

energy (EBT) segment

Reporter: Dityasa H. Forddanta | Editor:

Wahyu T. Rahmawati

T

HE COMEBACK of coal prices does not necessarily make PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) put the brakes on business diversification. In parallel, this coal company continues to enlarge the new renewable energy (EBT) business segment.

ADRO is currently in the intensive research phase for the development of hydrogen energy with Fortescue Metal Group. This step is a continuation of the signing of a cooperation agreement between ADRO and the Australian company last April.

In line with the government's efforts to increase power generation from renewable sources, ADRO through Adaro Power is currently actively participating in the EBT project tender held by PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). The EBT-based projects include biomass energy, wind power, and solar panels so that the company has a portfolio with a balanced energy mix.

"Adaro Power is in the finalization stage of a contract to increase solar panel capacity at the Kelanis Coal Special Terminal," said Dharma President Director Djojonegoro Adaro Power to Kontan.co.id recently.

The power plant capacity is planned to be increased from 130 kilowatt peak (kWp) to 597 kWp. This plant will also be able to provide solar power for the Indonesia Bulk Terminal (IBT) in the future and has the potential to be combined with solar panels in a hybrid way in the near future.

Adaro Energy (ADRO)

menggenjot ekspansi di segmen energi baru terbarukan (EBT)

Reporter: Dityasa H. Forddanta | Editor:

Wahyu T. Rahmawati

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EMBALI moncernya harga batubara tak lantas membuat PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) mengerem diversifikasi bisnis.

Secara paralel, perusahaan batubara ini tetap memperbesar segmen bisnis energi baru terbarukan (EBT).

ADRO saat ini tengah dalam tahap penelitian intensif untuk pengembangan energi hidrogen bersama Fortescue Metal Group. Langkah ini merupakan lanjutan atas penandatanganan perjanjian kerjasama antara ADRO dan perusahaan asal Australia itu pada April lalu.

Sejalan dengan upaya pemerintah untuk meningkatkan pembangkit listrik dari sumber terbarukan, ADRO melalui Adaro Power saat ini juga aktif mengikuti tender proyek EBT yang digelar oleh PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). Proyek berbasis EBT tersebut meliputi energi biomassa, tenaga angin, dan panel surya supaya perusahaan memiliki portofolio dengan bauran energi yang seimbang.

"Adaro Power tengah dalam tahap finalisasi kontrak untuk peningkatan kapasitas panel surya di Terminal Khusus Batu Bara Kelanis," ujar Presiden Direktur Dharma Djojonegoro Adaro Power kepada Kontan.co.id belum lama ini.

Kapasitas pembangkit listrik tersebut ren- cananya akan ditingkatkan dari 130 kilowatt peak (kWp) menjadi 597 kWp. Pembangkit ini ke depan juga mampu menyediakan tenaga solar untuk Indonesia Bulk Terminal (IBT) dan berpotensi untuk digabungkan dengan panel surya secara hybrid dalam waktu dekat.

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Adaro is not yet willing to specify the target for completion of the project and the amount of capital expenditure or capital expenditure (capex) disbursed. What is clear, ADRO is ready to invest more in the NRE segment.

"We are very open to discussing and partnering with experienced NRE developers, both from within and outside the country. This partnership is also open for the development of new projects (greenfield) as well as for cooperation in the acquisition of projects that are already underway," explained Dharma.

This year, ADRO has budgeted a capex of around US$ 200 million to US$ 300 million.

Until the first half of this year, US$ 76 million has been absorbed.

Adaro belum bersedia merinci target penyelesaian proyek tersebut dan besaran belanja modal atawa capital expenditure (capex) yang dikucurkan. Yang terang, ADRO siap berinvestasi lebih besar untuk segmen EBT.

"Kami sangat terbuka untuk berdiskusi dan bermitra dengan pengembang EBT ber- pengalaman, baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri. Kemitraan ini juga terbuka untuk pengembangan proyek baru (greenfield) maupun untuk kerjasama dalam akuisisi proyek yang sudah berjalan," terang Dharma.

Tahun ini, ADRO menganggarkan capex sekitar US$ 200 juta hingga US$ 300 juta.

Hingga paruh waktu pertama tahun ini, sebesar US$ 76 juta sudah terserap.

Rocking Ship, Captain! Coal Price Drops 14% in a Day

Hidayat Setiaji, CNBC Indonesia

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OAL prices have fallen again. Not just down, but destroyed.

Yesterday, the price of coal on the ICE Newcastle (Australia) market was at US$

181.95/ton. Loss of 14.62% compared to the day before. This is the deepest daily correction since October 6, 2021.

This correction made the price of the black stone weaken for seven consecutive days.

In those seven days, the price fell 30.02%.

Profit-taking seems to still be whacking coal prices. Understandably, the price has gone up very high before.

Kapal Goyang, Kapten! Harga Batubara Rontok 14% dalam

Sehari

Hidayat Setiaji, CNBC Indonesia

H

ARGA batu bara kembali turun. Bukan sekadar turun, tetapi hancur lebur.

Kemarin, harga batu bara di pasar ICE Newcastle (Australia) berada di US$

181,95/ton. Rontok 14,62% dibandingkan sehari sebelumnya. Ini adalah koreksi harian terdalam sejak 6 Oktober 2021.

Koreksi ini membuat harga si batu hitam melemah selama tujuh hari beruntun. Dalam tujuh hari tersebut, harga anjlok 30,02%.

Aksi ambil untung (profit taking) sepertinya masih mendera harga batu bara. Maklum, sebelumnya harga sudah naik tinggi sekali.

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In the last month, coal prices still posted an increase of 2.04% point-to-point. Since the end of 2020 (year-to-date), prices are still up 122.57%.

So, it is natural for investors to be tempted by that amount of money. There will definitely come a time when investors are busy cashing out profits, and it seems that has been the case for the past week.

In addition, the market is also responding to China's policy plan that will try to suppress coal prices. The trick is to boost production and speed up imports to foster stockpiles to be sufficient for winter needs.

China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is studying various intervention measures to reduce coal prices. President Xi Jingping's government is committed to making every effort to bring coal prices down to more reasonable levels. CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM (aji/aji)

Dalam sebulan terakhir, harga batu bara masih membukukan kenaikan 2,04% secara point-to-point. Sejak akhir2020 (year-to- date), harga masih naik 122,57%.

So, wajar investor akan tergoda dengan cuan sebesar itu. Pasti akan tiba saatnya investor ramai-ramai mencairkan keuntungan, dan sepertinya itu sedang terjadi selama seminggu terakhir.

Selain itu, pasar juga merespons rencana kebijakan China yang akan berupaya menekan harga batu bara. Caranya adalah dengan menggenjot produksi dan mempercepat impor untuk memupuk stok agar cukup untuk kebutuhan musim dingin nanti.

Komisi Reformasi dan Pembangunan Nasional China (NDRC) tengah mempelajari berbagai langkah intervensi dalam rangka menurunkan harga batu bara. Pemerintahan Presiden Xi Jingping berkomitmen untuk melakukan berbagai upaya agar harga batu bara turun ke level yang lebih masuk akal.

TIM RISET CNBC INDONESIA (aji/aji)

Freeport Indonesia's 5G Mining Application Will Be the First in

ASEAN

Author: Edo Fernando, Editor: Ocky PR.

I

NDONESIA will have a 5G Mining network in the near future. This was stated by the Minister of State-Owned Enter- prises, Erick Thohir, who said that the mine owned by PT Freeport Indonesia would become a 5G mine. This is the embodiment of the 4.0 industrial transfor- mation policy, which has been so heavily echoed by the government.

Penerapan 5G Mining Freeport Indonesia Akan Jadi yang

Pertama di ASEAN

Penulis: Edo Fernando, Editor: Ocky PR.

I

NDONESIA akan memiliki jaringan 5G Mining dalam waktu dekat. Hal tersebut diungkapkan oleh Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara, Erick Thohir yang mengatakan bahwa tambang milik PT Freeport Indonesia, akan menjadi tambang 5G. Ini merupakan langkah perwujudan dari kebijakan transformasi industri 4.0, yang selama ini begitu gencar digaungkan oleh pemerintah.

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The news about 5G Mining was revealed at the groundbreaking event of a smelter owned by PT Freeport Indonesia in the Gresik SEZ, East Java, which was also witnessed directly by President Joko Widodo.

In his speech, Erick Thohir explained to Jokowi that the policy for the transfor- mation of industry 4.0 in the mining world, 5G Mining, will be carried out at Freeport Indonesia's smelter, which is targeted to start in the next six months.

Erick also claimed that the implementation of 5G Mining would be the first in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, the implementation and management of 5G Mining departs from the fruit of the collaboration between PT Freeport Indonesia and PT Telkom Indonesia.

“This is the first time in ASEAN, the result of cooperation between Freeport and Telkom. The function of 5G mining itself is to maintain operational security, because mining is carried out in deep mines. This is important for the protection of workers in it," said Erick Thohir.

With the existence of 5G Mining, it is hoped that it can improve the relationship and integration of the Hyper Connect Network.

One of these will be implemented by presenting the sophistication of an autonomous car, or a vehicle without a crew (driver), such as a large hauling truck.

Freeport Indonesia has previously said that next year, the company's underground mine will be able to operate at 100% full capacity. For the record, for now, mining operations have been in the range of 90%.

The development process itself was carried out a dozen years ago, at which time the aim was to anticipate the depletion of mineral reserves in open pit mines.

Kabar soal 5G Mining itu terungkap dalam acara groundbreaking smelter milik PT Freeport Indonesia yang ada di KEK Gresik, Jawa Timur, yang disaksikan juga secara langsung oleh Presiden Joko Widodo.

Dalam pidatonya itu, Erick Thohir menjelaskan kepada Jokowi bahwa kebijakan transformasi industri 4.0 di dunia pertambangan, 5G Mining, akan dilakukan di smelter milik Freeport Indonesia, yang ditargetkan akan dimulai pada enam bulan mendatang.

Erick juga mengklaim bahwa penerapan 5G Mining itu, akan menjadi yang pertama di Asia Tenggara. Adapun, penerapan dan pengelolaan 5G Mining itu berangkat dari buah kerjasama antara PT Freeport Indonesia dengan PT Telkom Indonesia.

“Ini adalah yang pertama di ASEAN, hasil kerja sama antara Freeport dengan Telkom. Fungsi dari 5G mining itu sendiri adalah untuk menjaga keamanan operasional, sebab penambangan dilakukan di tambang dalam. Hal ini penting untuk proteksi pekerja di dalamnya,” ujar Erick Thohir.

Dengan adanya 5G Mining itu, diharapkan bisa meningkatkan hubungan dan integrasi atas Hyper Connect Network. Ini salah satunya akan diterapkan dengan meng- hadirkan kecanggihan autonomous car, atau kendaraan tanpa awak (sopir), seperti truk hauling berukuran besar.

Freeport Indonesia sebelumnya juga telah mengatakan bahwa pada tahun depan, tambang bawah tanah milik perusahaan akan bisa beroperasi dengan kapasitas penuh 100%. Sebagai catatan, untuk saat ini, operasional tambang telah berada di kisaran 90%. Proses pengembangannya sendiri telah dilakukan belasan tahun yang lalu, di mana kala itu tujuannya untuk mengantisipasi habisnya cadangan mineral di tambang terbuka.

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Tin US$ 39,800 per metric ton, this is a positive impact for the

country

Muhammad Ghafur Fadillah

T

HE PRICE of tin in the Physical Market of Pure Tin Bars traded on the Bursa Berjangka Jakarta (BBJ)/Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX), on October 19, 2021, reached US$ 39,800 per metric ton. This price is the highest price since Pure Tin Bars began trading on the Jakarta Futures Exchange.

During October 2021, the price of pure tin bullion on the Jakarta Futures Exchange has increased by 18.2%, where at the beginning of trading on October 1, 2021, the price was US$ 33,670 per metric ton.

Stephanus Paulus Lumintang, President Director of the Bursa Berjangka Jakarta/

Jakarta Futures Exchange, said that the price increase in the physical market for pure tin bars indicates that there is an increase in market demand, especially for exports.

“The prices that occur on the Jakarta Futures Exchange are market prices formed on the basis of pure supply and demand. The creation of this highest price is certainly a breath of fresh air for the physical market ecosystem for pure tin bars which are traded on the Jakarta Futures Exchange. In addition, the move- ment of the global economy, which has begun to grow, will of course also provide a stimulus for this increase in transactions," he said in a written statement on Thursday (21/10/2021).

The Pure Tin Bar Physical Market which is traded on the Jakarta Futures Exchange, is a trade of tin produced by PT Timah Tbk, and is specifically for export activities.

Timah US$ 39,800 Per Metrik Ton, Ini Dampak Positif bagi

Negara

Muhammad Ghafur Fadillah

H

ARGA timah di Pasar Fisik Timah Murni Batangan yang diperdagangkan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta (BBJ)/Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX), pada tanggal 19 Oktober 2021 mencapai US$ 39.800 per metrik ton.

Harga ini merupakan harga tertinggi sejak Timah Murni Batangan mulai diperdagangkan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta.

Selama bulan Oktober 2021, harga timah murni batangan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta telah mengalami peningkatan sebesar 18,2%, dimana diawal perdagangan tanggal 1 Oktober 2021, harga yang terjadi sebesar US$ 33.670 per metrik ton.

Stephanus Paulus Lumintang, Direktur Utama Bursa Berjangka Jakarta / Jakarta Futures Exchange mengatakan, terjadinya kenaikan harga di pasar fisik timah murni batangan ini menunjukkan bahwa ada kenaikan permintaan pasar, khususnya untuk ekspor.

“Harga yang terjadi di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta ini adalah harga pasar yang ter- bentuk atas dasar permintaan dan pena- waran yang terjadi secara murni. Tercipta- nya harga tertinggi ini tentunya merupakan angin segar bagi ekosistem pasar fisik timah murni batangan yang diperdagangkan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta. Selain itu, per- gerakan ekonomi global yang mulai tumbuh, tentunya juga memberikan stimulus terhadap terjadinya kenaikan transaksi ini,”

katanya dalam keterangan tertulis Kamis (21/10/2021).

Pasar Fisik Timah Murni Batangan yang diperdagangkan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta, merupakan perdagangan timah produksi PT Timah Tbk, dan khusus untuk kegiatan ekspor.

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As of the third quarter of 2021, physical market transactions for pure tin bars on the Jakarta Futures Exchange have reached 672 lots in 30,108 metric tons, with a total transaction value of USD 892.2 million, or more than Rp 12.6 trillion.

For the record, the physical market for pure tin bars for export on the Jakarta Futures Exchange began trading in mid- 2019. Meanwhile, the domestic physical tin market has only started operating since March 2021.

Fajar Wibhiyadi, President Director of PT Kliring Berjangka Indonesia (Persero), a BUMN that acts as the Clearing Guarantee Agency and Transaction Settlement in the Physical Market of Pure Tin Bars at BBJ, said that there was a growth in the price of tin for export in the Physical Market of Pure Tin Bars at the Jakarta Futures Exchange. Of course, it also has a positive impact on the country.

"We know that tin exports will certainly provide additional foreign exchange for the country. In addition, both central and regional governments will also receive revenue-sharing funds from royalties on existing tin exports," he said.

In accordance with Government Regulation No. 81 of 2019 concerning Types and Tariffs of Non-Tax State Revenue, it is stated that the Government will receive a royalty of 3% of the selling price.

Furthermore, for local governments there will be allocations in the form of Revenue Sharing Funds. Indonesia itself is a calculated player in the world tin market, which has reserves of around 17% of the world's total tin reserves. Editor : Gora Kunjana

Sampai dengan Kuartal III tahun 2021, transaksi pasar fisik timah murni batangan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta mencapai 672 Lot dalam 30.108 metrik Ton, dengan total nilai transaksi mencapai USD 892,2 Juta, atau lebih dari Rp 12,6 Triliun.

Sebagai catatan, pasar fisik timah murni batangan untuk ekspor di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta mulai diperdagangkan sejak pertengahan tahun 2019 yang lalu.

Sedangkan untuk Pasar Fisik timah dalam negeri baru mulai berjakan sejak Maret 2021.

Fajar Wibhiyadi, Direktur Utama PT Kliring Berjangka Indonesia (Persero), BUMN yang berperan sebagai Lembaga Kliring Penjaminan dan Penyelesaian Transaksi di Pasar Fisik Timah Murni Batangan di BBJ mengatakan, adanya pertumbuhan harga timah untuk ekspor di Pasar Fisik Timah Murni Batangan di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta ini tentunya juga memberikan dampak positif kepada negara.

“Kita tahu, dengan adanya ekspor timah tentunya akan memberikan tambahan devisa bagi negara. Selain itu, pemerintah baik pusat maupun daerah juga akan mendapatkan dana bagi hasil dari royalti atas ekspor timah yang ada,” katanya.

Sesuai dengan Peraturan Pemerintah No 81 tahun 2019 tentang Jenis dan Tarif Penerimaan Negara bukan Pajak, disebut- kan bahwa Pemerintah akan mendapatkan royalty sebesar 3% dari harga jual.

Selanjutnya, bagi pemerintah daerah akan ada alokasi dalam bentuk Dana Bagi Hasil.

Indonesia sendiri menjadi pemain yang diperhitungkan di pasar timah dunia, yang memiliki cadangan sekitar 17% dari total cadangan timah dunia. Editor : Gora Kunjana

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China's Electricity Crisis, Coal Imports from Indonesia Soar

Author: Mutiara Nabila

T

HE CRISIS of electricity supply from coal-fired power plants in China pushed coal imports to from Indonesia to reach a record high.

Based on Chinese customs data, cargo carrying brown, thermal and coking coal from Indonesia exceeded 21 million tons in September, soaring from imports of 17 million tons in August and accounting for 2/3 of total imports to China.

Buyers from China were forced to stop and replace supplies from other producers because political relations with Australia were heating up forcing exports of this electric fuel to be banned.

Meanwhile, hopes that Mongolia can provide more coal supplies have to be dashed because the Covid-19 pandemic has limited cargo going to China, less than 1 million tons.

Indonesia's benchmark coal price hit a record, boosted by high demand since June, when Beijing agreed to increase imports after failing to try to prevent the electricity crisis currently ensnaring the country.

At the end of last year, China struck a three-year deal with Indonesian coal mines worth US$1.5 billion as Beijing sought replacement supplies from Australia.

Indonesia itself provides a supply of low- quality brown coal, which has advantages in terms of price but disadvantages in terms of efficiency and its impact on the environment and climate.

China Krisis Listrik, Impor Batu Bara dari Indonesia Melejit

Author: Mutiara Nabila

K

RISIS pasokan listrik dari pembangkit bertenaga batu bara di China mendorong impor batu bara ke dari Indonesia mencapai rekor tertinggi.

Berdasarkan data bea cukai China, kargo yang membawa batu bara brown, thermal, dan coking dari Indonesia menembus 21 juta ton pada September, melejit dari capaian impor 17 juta ton pada Agustus dan menyumbang 2/3 total impor ke China.

Pembeli dari China terpaksa menyetop dan mengganti pasokan dari produsen lainnya lantaran hubungan politik dengan Australia yang memanas membuat ekspor bahan bakar listrik ini dilarang.

Adapun, harapan bahwa Mongolia bisa memberi lebih banyak pasokan batu bara harus pupus karena pandemi Covid-19 membuat kargo yang mengarah ke China terbatas, tak sampai 1 juta ton.

Harga acuan batu bara Indonesia mencapao rekor, terdorong oleh tingginya permintaan sejak Juni, ketika Beijing sepakat untuk meningkatkan impor setelah gagal melakukan percobaan pencegahan krisis listrik yang saat ini menjerat nefara tersebut.

Pada akhir tahun lalu, China membuat kesepakatan selama tiga tahun dengan tambang batu bara Indonesia senilai US$1,5 miliar seiring dengan Beijing yang tengah mencari pengganti pasokan dari Australia.

Indonesia sendiri menyediakan pasokan batu bara coklat dengan kualitas rendah, yang punya kelebiham dari sisi harga tapi punya kekurangan dari segi efisiensi dan dampaknya pada lingkungan dan iklim.

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Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michelle Leung said Indonesia should send more supplies to China as demand from other countries such as India is weakening.

However, its supply is still vulnerable to various obstacles. In recent months, the Indonesian government has asked producers to prioritize their production to meet domestic needs. Meanwhile, mining activities have also been limited due to floods and the pandemic.

Traders said the price of one type of low quality Indonesian coal reached US$160 - US$170 per ton this week. The amount increased from the price of US$110 - US$120 per tonne at the beginning of the month. Supply from Indonesia remains tight due to weather disturbances and sellers themselves are still fulfilling previous commitments with buyers. Editor : Aprianto Cahyo Nugroho

Analis Bloomberg Intelligence Michelle Leung mengatakan, Indonesia harus mengirim lebih banyak pasokan ke China melihat permintaan dari negara lain seperti India sedang melemah.

Namun, pasokannya masih rentan terhadap berbagai rintangan. Dalam beberapa bulan belakangan saja, Pemerintah Indonesua sudah meminta produsen untuk memprioritaskan produksinya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dalam negeri. Adapun, aktivitas pertambangan juga tervatas karena banjir dan pandemi.

Trader menyebutkan harga salah satu jenis batu bara kualitas rendah Indonesia mencapai US$160 - US$170 per ton pada pekan ini. Jumlah tersebut naik dari harga US$110 - US$120 per ton pada awal bulan. Pasokan dari Indonesia tetap ketat karena adanya gangguan cuaca dan penjual sendiri masih memenuhi komitmen sebelumnya dengan para pembeli. Editor : Aprianto Cahyo Nugroho

Rare Copper Stock, Item in Warehouse 47-Year Low!

Robertus Andrianto, CNBC Indonesia

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ORLD copper prices bounced this morning from falling nearly 4% in yesterday's trading. The strengthening of copper prices was supported by inventories in warehouses which fell 89%

and touched their lowest point since 1974.

On Friday (10/22/2021) at 08.52 WIB, the world copper price was recorded at US$

9,931.75/ton, up 1.50% compared to yesterday's position.

Stok Tembaga Langka, Barang di Gudang Terendah 47 Tahun!

Robertus Andrianto, CNBC Indonesia

H

ARGA tembaga dunia bangkit pagi ini dari kejatuhan hampir 4% pada perdagangan kemarin. Penguatan harga tembaga ditopang oleh persediaan di gudang yang jatuh 89% dan menyentuh titik terendah sejak 1974.

Pada Jumat (22/10/2021) pukul 08.52 WIB harga tembaga dunia tercatat US$

9.931,75/ton, naik 1,50% dibanding posisi kemarin.

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Copper inventories in LME (London Metal Stock) warehouses that have not been allocated for drawdown have fallen 89% to 15,225 tonnes this month after a surge in metal orders from European warehouses.

This condition made inventories in warehouses reach their lowest level since 1974.

The copper supply crisis has pushed copper prices higher and back to the level of US$ 10,000/ton yesterday. The recovery of the world economy and the use of renewable energy will be the main demand for copper going forward.

Very low inventories prompted LME to take temporary precautions with the aim of maintaining copper market liquidity.

"Immediately, the LME (acting through the Special Committee) has determined that it is appropriate in circumstances to take the following three actions with respect to copper, intended to ensure market order:

(i) amend certain requirements in the lending rules; (ii) impose limits on backwardation for subsequent contracts;

(iii) introducing a deferred delivery mechanism for certain contracts," the LME said in a statement.

Colin Hamilton, commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets said that many companies are hoarding the metal as they anticipate further supply problems in the future as a result of the current supply crunch.

He likened the current sentiment in the market to what happened to toilet paper at the start of the pandemic when consumers were buying toilet paper around the world.

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM (ras/ras)

Persediaan tembaga di gudang LME (London Metal Stock) yang belum dialokasikan untuk penarikan telah jatuh 89% menjadi 15.225 ton pada bulan ini setelah lonjakan pesanan logam dari gudang Eropa. Kondisi ini membuat persediaan di gudang mencapai level terendah sejak 1974.

Krisis persediaan tembaga telah mendorong harga tembaga yang lebih tinggi dan kembali ke level US$ 10.000/ton kemarin. Pemulihan ekonomi dunia dan penggunaan energi terbarukan akan jadi permintaan utama tembaga ke depan.

Persediaan yang sangat rendah mendorong LME untuk mengambil tindakan pencegahan sementara dengan tujuan menjaga likuiditas pasar tembaga.

"Dengan segera, LME (bertindak melalui Komite Khusus) telah menentukan bahwa dalam keadaan tepat untuk mengambil tiga tindakan berikut sehubungan dengan tembaga, yang dimaksudkan untuk me- mastikan ketertiban pasar: (i) mengubah persyaratan tertentu dalam aturan peminjaman; (ii) memberlakukan batasan pada backwardation untuk kontrak berikutnya; (iii) memperkenalkan meka- nisme pengiriman yang ditangguhkan untuk kontrak tertentu," kata LME dalam sebuah pernyataan.

Colin Hamilton, analis komoditas di BMO Capital Markets mengatakan, bahwa banyak perusahaan menimbun logam karena mereka mengantisipasi masalah pasokan lebih lanjut di masa depan sebagai sebab krisis persediaan sekarang.

Dia menyamakan sentimen saat ini di pasar dengan apa yang terjadi dengan kertas toilet pada awal pandemi ketika konsumen memborong kertas toilet di seluruh dunia. TIM RISET CNBC INDONESIA (ras/ras)

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Without new foreign investment, Indonesia should hit the brakes on coal expansion

Planned coal projects should be renegotiated to avoid lock-in to further coal capacity that the country neither needs nor will benefit from

Isabella Suarez

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OLLOWING China’s recent announcement that it would “not build new coal-fired power projects abroad”, almost 80 gigawatts (GW) of planned coal power plants backed by China are suddenly dead in the water. President Xi Jinping also pledged to increase support for low- carbon energy overseas. This should encourage recipient countries like Indonesia to seize the opportunity to redesign their power development strategies and investment landscape, accelerating the energy transition away from fossil fuels.

The construction of new coal power plants outside China has collapsed in the past five years.

Our earlier research at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that since 2017 twice as much coal-fired power capacity linked to China had been shelved or cancelled than constructed in Indonesia. Rather than a lack of interest from China, the cancellations were principally driven by coal’s changing optics and economics in recipient countries.

Indonesia has the second largest operating and planned coal-based capacity linked to China, so the implications of China’s announcement are unique. The government’s 35 GW power procurement programme, initiated in 2014, encouraged generous permitting and power purchase agreements. These ushered in a wave of new coal projects involving Chinese banks and developers, via both financing and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) agreements. While many of these projects failed to progress or experienced significant delays, around 11 GW of China-backed coal projects proposed under this programme remain.

Approximately 43% of this capacity is now under construction. And of the 6.2 GW of projects in the permitting stage, only 2.5 GW have not yet obtained financial closure. This is unlike the situation in Vietnam, where 10 of the 15 GW of China-backed coal projects are at risk after the announcement, or Bangladesh, where three-quarters of the 7.2 GW of projects still require permits.

China’s announcement signifies the last major funder of overseas coal hitting the brakes.

Now, Indonesia, which has relied on foreign investment to support its power projects, needs to keep the show on the road without new coal. The large pipeline of coal projects, existing excess capacity, and policies to control pollution, could add challenges that increase the financial and social cost of development. These challenges could cause further delays, allowing projects to be scrapped or renegotiated in favour of zero-carbon technologies.

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The tone on coal

The Indonesian government has been under increasing pressure both domestically and internationally to transition from coal in response to the financial woes and lack of transparency at PLN, the state-owned utility, as well as climate change and environmental issues, such as air pollution. Indonesia’s ageing, highly polluting coal fleet has negatively affected PLN’s financial outlook.

Due to years of preferential coal expansion that has far outpaced actual demand, PLN now contends with underutilised coal assets and ballooning capacity payments. These fixed expenses are paid regardless of whether a coal plant is generating power, and will only increase with more coal in the grid. Last year, IEEFA estimated that capacity payments to Independent Power Producers (IPPs) would be PLN’s largest operating expense by 2021.

External pressure to address pollution and climate in the country may further impact decisions around coal power plants. Overseas coal projects by China, Japan and South Korea often lack stringent emission-control technologies. As a result, plants emit pollution at a much higher rate than they would have been allowed to at home. A recent report by the C40 predicted that air pollution from 25 GW of coal plants close to Jakarta would be linked to a cumulative 29,000 deaths in 2020-2030 – the second highest in the world.

Last month, a landmark citizen lawsuit ruled that the government was failing to adequately address air pollution in Jakarta. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) was ordered to supervise the development of an emission inventory for Jakarta, West Java and Banten. And Jakarta will need to develop an action plan to address pollution. West Java and Banten, the provinces where most of the country’s coal plants are located, were not explicitly ordered to control emissions from polluting sources. However, the order could pave the way for tightening controls on polluting sources, especially as the courts recognised the impacts of transboundary pollution. The MoEF revised emissions limits to control emissions of coal plants in 2019, but implementation of the standards has been loose and slow. All of the China- backed coal projects were exempt, despite developers having the know-how to construct such plants, which would be operational until 2050 under a 30-year power purchase agreement.

PLN has argued that emission-control technologies would require additional investments for proposed plants, and funding to install in existing ones. Such controls are vital for minimising the health impacts from coal as the country works to transition away from it. Their requirement could allow PLN to renegotiate projects in recognition that global funders have pledged to move away from coal.

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The option to trade-in coal

Like most major producing and consuming coal economies, Indonesia will need to justly transition away from a powerful sector that fuelled its economic growth for years. There are serious discussions underway as the MoEF and PLN have both announced carbon neutrality goals by 2060.

Considerable domestic and international investments and capacity building, as well as a better enabling environment and transparency, will be required for this to be met.

Indonesia’s National Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2021-2030 is expected to be released soon. It suggests the country will need $35 billion in investments to increase the share of renewable energy in its power mix from 13% to 23% by 2025. Under their Belt and Road Initiative, China’s solar, wind and hydro investments increased to more than half of its overseas energy investments in 2020. But despite Indonesia being a top recipient under the BRI, none of this financing was made towards wind and solar projects.

There is also a question of what coal projects will be listed as priority projects in the new RUPTL following China’s announcement. Indonesia can be proactive in capturing investments that favour its nascent renewable energy sector. Engaging China, Japan, South Korea, the US and Europe on their commitments to increase zero-carbon investments should include renegotiating the remaining planned coal projects in Indonesia. Despite these projects being in later stages of development, their construction will further lock in coal capacity that Indonesia neither needs nor will benefit from. Its new national climate commitment and long- term strategy for low carbon and climate resilience by 2050 are good signs, and should be backed by actions that circumvent any potential delays to their ability to meet ambitious climate targets.

Freeport copper output falls short just as the world needs more of the metal

Bloomberg News

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REEPORT-McMoRan Inc. produced less copper than expected last quarter from its mines in the Americas, adding to concerns over a drum-tight global market that’s seen prices surge back toward record levels. The stock fell.

The world’s largest publicly traded copper miner produced 987 million pounds of the metal in the third quarter, Freeport said Thursday in a statement, with the output falling short of the 1 billion pound average estimate of analysts tracked by Bloomberg. The production miss was led by lower-than-expected output in its mines in South America and North America.

Freeport’s statement didn’t provide information indicating why output was below market expectations.

Freeport shares fell 3.6% to $37.55 at 9:32 a.m. trading in New York, the biggest intraday decline in a month. The stock has more than doubled in the past year in one of the best performances among copper suppliers tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Freeport’s production miss comes as the company posted quarterly profit that topped analysts’ estimates, with higher copper prices helping lift revenue and operating income well above levels seen in the same quarter a year earlier. The Phoenix-based miner expects annual copper sales to reach about 3.8 billion pounds for this year, after posting sales of 1.03 billion pounds between July and September.

“The outlook for the copper market is extraordinarily positive,” Chief Executive Officer Richard C. Adkerson said in the statement.

Higher copper prices and production have Freeport on track for record earnings before items this year and next, allowing the company to reduce debt and increase both shareholder returns and investments. Adjusted earnings were 89 cents a share, beating the average estimate of 82 cents.

Freeport’s results will be of particular interest to traders navigating wild swings in copper prices after available stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses hit the lowest since 1974.

The market is banking on Freeport ramping up underground production in Indonesia and getting back to pre-Covid levels in Peru. Freeport said underground progress at its flagship Grasberg mine continues to advance on schedule.

Copper prospects

Copper’s immediate prospects are supported by low inventories, while the shift to low- carbon energy sources paints a rosy picture for the longer term. But global shipping bottlenecks and energy shortages in China and Europe are dimming the demand outlook heading into next year.

Efforts to conserve power and limit emissions in China are also a double-edged sword for mining companies, with higher smelting fees eroding the windfall. Rising costs are seen as one of the few headwinds to earnings growth. Freeport’s net copper cash costs stood at $1.24 per pound in the third quarter, below the average analyst estimate of $1.30 a pound.

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Freeport has scheduled an earnings call for 10 a.m. New York time, in which Adkerson and executives will likely comment on the recent run-up in copper prices and inventory drawdown as well as the near-term outlook for demand. The CEO may also be asked about Freeport’s latest thinking on future growth projects in the face of supply deficits created by the shift away from fossil fuels. (By James Attwood and Yvonne Yue Li)

China's coal output rises to meet energy shortfalls amid govt measures

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HINA's coal supply has given indications of picking up with daily production reaching a new high this year following government measures to boost output amid power shortages, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic regulator. Average daily coal production surpassed 11.5 million tonnes recently, up by over 1.2 million tonnes from that in mid-September.

Coal mines in the Shanxi province, the Shaanxi province and the Inner Mongolia autonomous region reached an average daily production of about 8.6 million tonnes, a new high for this year, NDRC said.

It said coal production will continue to rise and demand for coal used to produce electricity and heat will be effectively guaranteed, according to state-controlled media reports.

NDRC secretary general Zhao Chenxin told a recent news conference that energy supplies can be guaranteed this coming winter and spring. While ensuring energy supplies, the government will also make sure that China's goals to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060 will be achieved, he said.

One hundred and fifty three coal mines were allowed to boost production capacity by 220 million tonnes per year since September, among which some have started raising output, with estimated newly increased production reaching over 50 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, said the NDRC.

The government also selected 38 coal mines for urgent use to ensure supplies, and allowed them to increase production capacity periodically. Total annual production capacity of the 38 coal mines will reach 100 million tonnes.

In addition, the government has allowed land use for more than 60 coal mines, which could help guarantee an annual production capacity of more than 150 million tonnes. It also actively promotes production resumption among coal mines that underwent temporary shutdowns.

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Focus on gold and lithium as China sets sights on copper

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T WAS gold price, lithium demand and China’s appetite for copper that dominated much of the discussion at Mines and Money Online Connect at IMARC this week.

Mines and Money Online Connect saw 90 mining companies, more than 600 investors and more than 2000 participants log on to hear mining executives and analysts discuss the next big thing for savvy investors in 2022.

Time to strike gold?

‘Frustrating’ sums up the 2021 gold price according to commodity discovery fund founder and chief investment officer Willem Middelkoop.

Middelkoop spruiked gold’s glittering upside during the Mines and Money gold outlook panel discussion.

The panellists suggested that with the gold price soaring to record highs, a gold correction was inevitable. Historically, gold price is linked to market volatility and the much of new money printed in the United States.

In 2022, panellists expect plenty of market volatility and money printing, with an overinflated US dollar set to weaken in value, and subsequently drive up the price of gold.

Through the Commodity Discovery Find, Middelkoop has studied the gold price in relation to increased money supply over the past decade.

“If you look at the current graph, the gold price needs to move back toward over $US2000 ($2678), and it should move toward $US8000 ($10,938)-$10,000 ($13,314) to be in line with money growth. If you look at that statistic, there is so much upside,” said Middelkoop.

“A doubling of the gold price within 12 months is easily possible,” said Middelkoop.

The need for speed

The US has the need for speed with car manufacturing adopting electric vehicles (EVs) at an accelerating rate. The rising demand for EVs, which is expected to surge to 10 per cent in global sales by 2025 according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, will require startling quantities of lithium.

The price of lithium hydroxide continued to soar in 2021 and shows no sign of slowing down in 2022. Prices topped $US23,375 ($31,333) per tonne at the time of writing, which is up from a $US6,300 ($8,444) average per tonne in the September quarter of 2020.

During the Mines and Money battery metals session, Piedmont Lithium president and chief executive officer Keith Phillips said the EVs market is fuelling the demand for lithium hydroxide.

“I’ve always had the view that the market would speak, and the time would come, and it will,”

said Phillips.

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Phillips said Ford’s ‘Blue Oval City’ required 125,000 tonnes per year of lithium hydroxide to service its three battery plants, which surpasses the production capacities of all lithium projects currently planned in the United States.

“Tesla has been a leader here, but LG and General Motors are making big commitments.

Everyone is talking about bringing more capacity to the US, which we desperately need, and even if we all succeed, we are still going to be short, and require lots of material from outside the US,” said Philips.

China’s quiet copper rush

Copper was the metal of the hour during the Mines and Money’s China commodities supply and demand outlook 2022 panel. Companies from Australia’s biggest trading partner are digging for strategic commodities to enhance diversification and survival in an uncertain marketplace.

Gold Mountains general manager Maggie Huang said sourcing and developing copper mines was critical to not only Gold Mountains, but to the Chinese economy.

“We see copper as a highly strategic metal for China, we are the largest consumer in the world. We consume half of all output of copper but produce only 20 to 25% of what we actually use,” said Huang.

Huang pointed out that whilst Australia and Canada represented stable and mature investment destinations in the past, “an investment is an investment”, and Chinese companies are now seeking new opportunities in other mining destinations.

As Africa and South America mature as mining destinations, Huang said emerging opportunities in Africa and South America could be more profitable and signify a more attractive investment than Australia or Canada.

South32 reports lower base metals production in September quarter, maintains its guidance

By Vladimir Basov

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OUTH32 reported today that it has recorded sequentially lower base metals production in September quarter 2021, with Cerro Matoso impacted by a temporary equipment outage, while Cannington extracted a planned series of lower grade stopes.

The company said that during the quarter, it produced 9.6 ktonnes of nickel (previous quarter: 10.9 ktonnes), 3,493 koz of silver (previous quarter: 4,178 koz), 31.9 ktonnes of lead (previous quarter: 41.2 ktonnes) and 15.4 ktonnes of zinc (previous quarter: 19.5 ktonnes).

On the other hand, South32 added it has achieved a 7% increase in manganese production, with a quarterly record at South Africa Manganese and a strong start to the year at Australia Manganese.

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Moreover, the company has maintained production above nameplate capacity at Worsley Alumina, with the operation continuing to benefit from improvement initiatives.

The company also restored production to normalised rates at Brazil Alumina in October, following an incident that damaged one of the bauxite unloaders at the refinery in July 2021;

and increased production at Mozal Aluminium, with smelter productivity benefitting from its investment in the AP3XLE energy efficiency technology.

Importantly, South32 pointed out that it has maintained its FY22 production guidance with the company’s operations continuing to deliver to plan, taking advantage of rising commodity prices.

South32 is a globally diversified mining and metals company producing bauxite, alumina, aluminium, energy and metallurgical coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead and zinc in Australia, Southern Africa and South America.

U.S. coal demand and production are on the rise, and MT and WY are helping drive the increase

Yellowstone Public Radio | By Kayla Desroches

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IGHER natural gas prices coupled with recovering demand for U.S. coal are putting the coal industry on track for the first year-over-year increase in generation it’s seen since 2014.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation this year than last, partially due to coal’s stable prices compared to natural gas, and stoked by increased demand from domestic and Asia Pacific markets.

U.S. coal production increased from roughly 265,000 thousand tons in the first six months of 2020 to about 283,000 thousand tons over the same period this year, according to federal data, with production rising even more since July.

Westmoreland Mining owns three coal mines in Montana. Chief Operating Officer Joe Micheletti says while he doesn’t believe coal is on the verge of returning to 2008 heights, he’s optimistic about the industry’s rebound.

“It’s been year after year where we’ve seen decline, decline, decline," he says. "Our hope is maybe we’ve hit the bottom and what we see coming is maybe what we see right now that the coal demand is going to be maybe steady."

Coal from the Powder River Basin in northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana accounts for around 43% of U.S. output.

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