Monthly Technical Plan
Monthly Technical Plan
Thursday, October 02 Thursday, October 02nd nd 20142014
5,140.91
123.97
4.05
-6.55
0.08%
-5.02%
Monthly IHSG
Monthly LS-27
International Close MoM Chg (%)
DJIA 16,804.71 (293.74) (1.72%) Nasdaq 4,422.09 (158.18) (3.45%) S&P 500 1,946.16 (57.21) (2.86%) FTSE 100 6,557.52 (262.23) (3.85%) Nikkei 225 16,082.25 657.66 4.26% Hang Seng 22,932.98 (1809.08) (7.31%) STI 3,264.09 (63.00) (1.89%)
Exchange Rates Last MoM Chg (%)
USD / IDR 12158 442.60 3.78% EUR / USD 1.2600 (0.05) (3.82%) Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi USD / JPY 108.99 4.84 4.65% GBP / USD 1.6241 (0.04) (2.31%) USD / CNY 6.139 (0.00) (0.00%) AUD / USD 0.8808 (0.05) (5.81%)
Others Last MoM Chg (%)
S&P 500 Vlty (VIX) 16.71 4.73 39.48%
EIDO: US 26.85 (1.90) (6.61%)
Sector Last MoM Chg (%)
Composite 5140.91 4.05 0.08% Agriculture 2094.00 (76.43) (3.52%) Basic Industry 526.73 (28.56) (5.14%) Cosumer Goods 2121.78 58.80 2.85% Finance 701.75 21.11 3.10% Infrastructure 1171.03 31.36 2.75% Mining 1525.12 (83.98) (5.22%) Miscellaneous 1243.79 (75.57) (5.73%) Manufacture 1291.25 (20.25) (1.54%)
Monthly Technical Plan
Monthly Technical Plan
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE SECTORAL INDEXComment:
Upside potentially:
Property Index decline in September and the index arrived at under-perform area. The index was the most under-perform index during the first week in its relative performance at -5.55%.
Basic industry Index declined in September after arrived at Out-perform last month. And now the index arrived at under-perform. It’s a rebounded signal in relative performance at -4.60%.
Downside potentially:
Infrastructure Index was the most Out-perform Index in September, with the strong relative performance of 3.97%. Potential downturn is very high in the near term.
Consumer goods Index surged in the second Outperform Index at the first week in September, with the relative performance of 4.27%. The relative performance of consumer goods has move consolidations at out-perform area and potentially downward to under-perform area.
Monthly Technical Plan
Monthly Technical Plan
IHSG Weekly ChartsS1 4903 R1 5067
S2 4723 R2 5255
S3 4544 R3 5465
Comment:
JCI declined after broke out the MA7 support level. Trading range 5045-5263. The index forming a bearish butterfly harmonic pattern.
By the first October, the index has confirmations a bearish butterfly harmonic with break out medium term bullish trend support level. Bearish butterfly harmonic pattern have target at 4736 it also a MA50 support level.
Stochastic, bearish movement at the moderate state, limited downside potential. Relative Strength Index Indicator give a signal strong bearish momentum from overbought oscillator, The Index has arrived at lower Bollinger bands if the index break out the lower Bollinger bands support level, it’s a negative signal.
Long term bullish movement.
This month stop-loss level 5000 (Break out lower Bollinger bands support level). If break out support level the Index will potentially continue to 4736 (Butterfly harmonic target and MA50 Support level).
This month resistance level 5157 (MA7 resistance level), if the index has break out resistance level, it will continue to move upward to 5254.
Monthly Technical Plan
Monthly Technical Plan
PROPERTY INDEX Weekly ChartsS1 418 R1 450
S2 378 R2 485
S3 340 R3 525
Comment:
The property Index declined significant last month after break out MA7 support level. Trading range 438 - 477.
By the first October, The index has arrived at lower Bollinger band and bullish trend support level. It’s a rebound signal if the index pulled back at bullish trend support level.
Stochastic bearish movement at oversold state, broad golden-cross potential. RSI on bearish momentum potential at moderate oscillator. The price has reached the lower Bollinger band, signaling a potential reversal towards the upper band.
Short term bearish, Long term and Medium term bullish movement.
This month resistance level 450, if the index has breaks out resistance level, it will continue to move upward to 485 (Upper Bollinger band Resistance level). But if the index breaks out the bullish trend support level at 425, it will to continue until 410.
Monthly Technical Plan
Monthly Technical Plan
INFRASTRUCTUR Weekly ChartsS1 1116 R1 1209
S2 1041 R2 1314
S3 967 R3 1440
Comment:
Infrastructure index surged significant after touching the MA7 and bullish trend support level. Trading range 1138-1210.
By the first October, The candle has confirmations a bearish harami pattern and break out support medium term bullish trend support level.
Stochastic bearish movement at near overbought state, broad downside potential. RSI have strong bearish momentum from overbought oscillator. The price has pulled back at the upper Bollinger bands, signaling a potential reversal downwards to the lower band.
Long term bullish movement.
This month stop loss level is around 1110 (Break out lower Bollinger bands support level). If the index breaks through this support level, it will continue to 1052 (support fractal level).
Monthly Technical Plan
Monthly Technical Plan
RESEARCH DIVISION
Jasa Adhi Mulya jasamulya@reliance-securities.com
Robertus Yanuar Hardy robertus@reliance-securities.com
Lanjar Nafi Taulat I lanjar@reliance-securities.com
Hansen Teguh hansen@reliance-securities.com
Aji Setiawan aji@reliance-securities.com
Alan Milgerry alan@reliance-securities.com
Pieter Djatmiko pieter@reliance-securities.com
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