STRATEGI INVESTASI
Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan DEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset)
terhadap pengaruh inflasi
Untuk mendapatkan keuntungan
yang lebih besar dimasa yang akan
datang
Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastian
pendapatan dimasa yang akan
datang
MENGAPA BERINVESTASI?
Investasi pada saham hampir sama
dengan judi
Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi)
memiliki pendapatan yang tetap
Produk reksa dana adalah produk
bank
Produk reksa dana mirip dengan
deposito
COMMON MISCONCEPTION
KEMANA BERINVESTASI?
Physical Assets
Financial Assets
Land
Property
Vehicles
Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI)
Deposito Berjangka (Time
Deposits)
Commercial Papers
Promissory Notes
Obligasi yang jatuh tempo
kurang dari 1 (satu) tahun
INVESTASI DI PASAR UANG
Saham (Stocks)
Obligasi (Bonds)
Reksa Dana (Investment
Funds)
Derivatives
INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL
RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF
Standard Deviation (Risk)
R
e
tu
rn
Low RiskLow ReturnHigh Risk High Potential Return
RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF
Risk
R
e
tu
rn
Risk / Return Characteristics
Deposito
Reksa Dana
Saham
Obligasi
RISK FROM AN INVESTORS
PERSPECTIVE
Issuer Specific Risk Investors Equities Reksa Dana Bonds and Cash Business Risk Credit Risk Liquidity Risk Operational Risk Legal Risk Market Risk Political risk FX risk Economic Risk
HOW INVESTORS CAN MANAGE
RISKS
Don’t put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify
Take a long-term view
Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead
Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with
Perhaps the best advice.... Do not invest in anything you don’t understand!
Perhaps the best advice.... Do not invest in anything you don’t understand!
Mid-1970s Recession 1987 Market Crash Diversified Portfolio Stocks Dec 1990 $500 $1,000 $1,500 Jun 1987 1988Jun 1989Jun $1,324 $1,227 $1,149 $1,014 Jun 1976 $500 $1,000 $1,500 Dec 1972 1973Dec 1974Dec Diversified Portfolio Stocks
Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills.
Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively Source: Ibbotson Associates.
DIVERSIFICATION
Conservative Investors
Moderate Investors
Aggressive Investors
SEBELUM BERINVENTASI…
Tujuan investasi
Jangka waktu investasi 9 Keamanan Dana
9 Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan
9 Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan
9 Pertumbuhan
Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung
Keadaan keuangan
Pengetahuan
9 Tentang investasi secara umum
9 Tentang produk yang akan dibeli
Buy and Hold Strategy
Active Strategy
STRATEGI INVESTASI
BUY AND HOLD
Conservative Investors Money Market 30% Bond 40% Stock 30%
BUY AND HOLD
Moderate Investors Stock 50% Bond 30% Money Market 20%
BUY AND HOLD
Aggressive InvestorsMoney
Market
10%
Bond
20%
Stock
70%
ACTIVE STRATEGY
Assets Allocation (Where)
Securities Selection (Which)
Market Timing (When)
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Securities Selection Asset Allocation Market Timing 4% 94% 2%
Determinants of Portfolio Performance
MAKING THE RIGHT ASSETS
ALLOCATION DECISION
ASSETS ALLOCATION
Stock
0 20 40 60 80 100 Con
Mod Agg
ASSETS ALLOCATION
Bond 0 20 40 60 80 100 Con Mod AggASSETS ALLOCATION
Money Market 0 20 40 60 80 100 Con Mod AggSECURITIES SELECTION
Big cap vs. small cap stocks
Growth vs. value stocks
Short-term vs. long term bonds
Fixed rate vs. variable rate
BIG CAP VS SMALL CAP
Focus
Company
Characteristics
Risks
Return
BIG CAP
SMALL CAP
Emphasis on large and well-established companies
Emphasis on small, emerging, and start-up companies
Reliable sales and dividends
Sales and earnings fluctuate, dividends are minor Usually diversified, so risk is low Un-diversified, so volatility of earnings and risk is high Moderate returns that
include dividends
No dividends but potentially high or low capital appreciation
GROWTH VS VALUE
Focus
Company
Characteristics
Risks
Return
GROWTH
VALUE
Emphasis on growing companies Emphasis on companies whose market value are low relative to earnings, dividends, or assetsHigh P/E ratio Low P/E ratio
Tend to be more
volatile Tend to be less volatile High cap appreciation
with little or no dividends
Moderate or low capital appreciations with high dividends
LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM
BOND
Price Sensitivity
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
Higher Lower
FIXED RATE VS VARIABLE
RATE
Sensitivity to
interest rate
Fixed
Variable
Higher LowerVALUASI OBLIGASI
4 Analisa berdasarkan prinsip Time Value of Money (TVM) 4 Harga obligasi: Vb= Σ INT (1 + kd)t M (1 + kd)N +
Kd = imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor N = lama jatuh tempo obligasi INT = jumlah pembayaran bunga M = nilai pari obligasi t = 1 sampai dengan N
CONTOH SOAL
Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun. Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah 10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut?
Vb= 12 M (1 + 10%)1 + 12 M (1 + 10%)2 + 12 M (1 + 10%)3 + 100 M (1 + 10%)3 = Rp. 104.973.703.982 atau104.97%
MARKET TIMING
Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun?
Pasar akan naik apabila banyak
investor yang menempatkan dananya
di pasar modal
Pasar akan turun apabila banyak
investor yang menarik dananya dari
pasar modal
MARKET CYCLE
Recession Early Recovery
Late Recovery Stagflation 1 2 3 4
Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds
Small cap value stocks Intermediate bonds Big cap value stocks
Short term bonds Big cap growth stocks Long term bonds
EARLY RECOVERY
Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun
Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa
pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi
Small cap growth stocks
Intermediate bonds
Investasi di:
LATE RECOVERY
Inflasi mulai bergerak naik
Ekonomi berkembang pesat
Small cap value stocks
Intermediate term bonds
Investasi di:
STAGFLATION
Inflasi naik dengan tajam
Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat
Large cap value stocks
Short term bonds
Investasi di:
RECESSION
Inflasi menurun tajam
Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat
Large cap growth stocks
Long Term bonds
Investasi di:
PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION
FOR EACH STAGE
Conservative
Moderate
Aggressive
Early
Recovery
Late
Recovery
Stagflation
Recession
50% stocks 40% bonds 10% cash 30% stocks 20% bonds 50% cash 10% stocks 10% bonds 80% cash 15% stocks 65% bonds 20% cash 70% stocks 25% bonds 5% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash 30% stocks 25% bonds 45% cash 40% stocks 45% bonds 15% cash 90% stocks 10% bonds 0% cash 70% stocks 0% bonds 30% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash 60% stocks 30% bonds 10% cash5-Year Holding Periods 1-Year Holding Periods
Small Company Stocks Large Company Stocks Government
Bonds Treasury Bills -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%
20-Year Holding Periods
10.2%
12.1% 5.5% 3.8%
Compound Annual Return
•
Reduction of Risk over Time — 1926-2002
Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period 1926-2002 Source: IbbotsonAssociates
MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY
DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
Menempatkan dana secara bertahap pada
suatu portofolio untuk menghindari risiko
fluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek
Definisi
Mengurangi risiko investasi
Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik
Tujuan
DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi
1.000 4.000.000 4.000 1.000 x 4.000 = 4.000.000 500 3.000.000 6.000 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000 750 3.000.000 4.000 750 x 14.000 = 10.500.000 NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi
1.000 10.000.000 10.000 1.000 x 10.000 = 10.000.000 500 0 0 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000 750 0 0 750 x 10.000 = 7.500.000
