Together We Build a Better Future
1
INDONESIA’S CEMENT INDUSTRY: NOW and THE FUTURE
SMGR Corporate Presentation
2
1. SEMEN INDONESIA
27.7 mn ton
- Semen Padang :
6.4 mn ton
- Semen Gresik :
14.0 mn ton
- Semen Tonasa:
7.3 mn ton
2. Semen Andalas
2)
1.6 mn ton
3. Semen Baturaja
1.3 mn ton
4. Indocement TP
20.5 mn ton
5. Holcim Indonesia
10.4 mn ton
6. Semen Bosowa
3.6 mn ton
7. Semen Kupang
0.5 mn ton
TOTAL
65.6 mn ton
•
Design Capacity
: 60.2 mio tons
65.6 mio tons
69.0 mio tons
•
Production Capacity
: 54.2 mio tons
61.1 mio tons
63.9 mio tons
•
Domestic Growth
: 14.5%
9.0%
9.0%
•
Domestic Utilization
: 98%
100%
99%
•
Supply
Domestic
: 54.9 mio tons
59.0 mio tons
65.0 mio tons
Export
: 0.2 mio tons
0.5 mio tons
0.5 mio tons
Import
: 0.7 mio tons
2)3.0 mio tons
3)3.0 mio tons
3)1)
Based on the Company’s forecast
2) Imported cement by PT Semen Andalas (1.0 mio ton) and clinker by Bosawa and Kupang
3) Imported cement & clinker
Singapore
DOMESTIC CAPACITY (2013)
CEMENT INDUSTRY
2012
2013F
1)
2014F
1)
Together We Build a Better Future
‘000 tons
ton ‘000
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
Installed Capacity
60,270
65,600
69,520
79,020
93,070
108,570
Real Production
54,243
61,106
63,958
72,698
79,110
98,073
Consumption
54,964
59,910
65,902
71,179
77,586
84,568
Surplus/deficit
(721)
1,195
(1,344)
1,518
1,523
13,504
Domestic Utilization
100%
99%
100%
99%
100%
87%
Export
200
200
200
200
200
200
Domestic
Consumption Growth
14.5%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
3
DOMESTIC DEMAND VS NATIONAL CAPACITY (2012
–
2017)
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
New Cement Capacity from Potential Foreign and Domestic Players (By 2017)
No
Company
Targeted Plant
Location
Remarks + Local Partner
1
Siam Cement (Thailand)
West Java
1.8
1.8
360
Greenfield, Sukabumi
2
CNBM (China)
Central Java
2.4
0
350
Greenfield, Semen Grobogan
3
Semen Merah Putih (Wilmar)
Banten
11.5
4.5
n.a
Greenfield (PT Cemindo Gemilang
–
Commercial)
4
Anhui Conch Cement (China)
- Tanjung
- Tanah Grogot
- Pontianak
- West Papua
Various
- South Kalimantan
- East Kalimantan
- West Kalimantan
- West Papua
13.7
5
Ultratech
Wonogiri, Central Java
4.5
0
827
Greenfield
6
Semen Puger
East Java
0.6
0
n.a
Upgrading
7
Semen Barru
South Sulawesi
3.3
0
470
Greenfield (Barru, South Sulawesi)
New Cement Capacity from Existing Players (2013
–
2017)
No
Company
Targeted Plant Location
Capacity
(mn tons)
Investment
(US$ mn)
Remarks
1
Semen Indonesia
Java, Sumatera, Sulawesi
11.5
970
Upgrading + green/brownfield
2
Indocement
Java, Kalimantan
8.8
1,560 (E)
Cement Mill + brown/greenfield
3
Holcim
East Java
3.8
680 (E)
Brown/Greenfield
4
Bosowa
Java, Sulawesi
7.9
620
Cement Mill + Brownfield
5
Semen Andalas
Sumatera
1.6
300
Greenfield
6
Semen Baturaja
Sumatera
2.6
325
Greenfield/Brownfield
T O T A L
36.2
4,130
Together We Build a Better Future
5
Source: Deutsche, Indonesia Cement Association
223
Source: Indonesian Cement Association & BPS Statistic
Domestic consumption (LHS)
GDP growth % (RHS)
(mio tons)
30.2
31.5
32.1
34.2
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
7M2013
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Cement growth % (RHS)
(A)
INDONESIA
’S
SOLID ECONOMIC AND DOMESTIC CEMENT CONSUMPTION
Together We Build a Better Future
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
7M2013
Bagged Cement
Bulk Cement
Bag and Bulk cement consumption (million tons)
7
Source: Indonesia Cement Association and the Company’s data
Retail (residential) sector is the largest
consumer of cement in Indonesia
Bag
80%
Bulk
20%
Key Drivers of Domestic cement demand:
•
National Economic Growth
•
Favorable Interest Rate Environment
•
Infrastructure Expansion
•
Per Capita Consumption increase from
current low levels
•
Ready-mix (infrastructure):
±
60%
•
Fabricator (pre-cast, fiber cement, cement based industry):
±
35%
•
Projects (mortar, render):
±
5%
•
Housing:
±
90%
•
Cement based industry:
±
10%
±
±
Source: Internal Research
Together We Build a Better Future
9
MARKET UPDATE
SMGR Corporate Presentation
Papua
Bali & N T
Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Population Distribution (2012)
Sumatera
21.3%
Java
57.5.%
8.4%
5.8%
5.5%
1.5%
REGION
MARKET SHARE (%)
SMGR
INTP
SMCB
BSWA ANDLS BTRJA
KPG
1. JAVA
39.1
40.3
18.7
2.0
-
-
-INDONESIA
43.7
30.7
14.5
5.3
3.3
2.0
0.3
Cement Distribution (7M 2013)
Domestic Market Share (7M-2013)
Together We Build a Better Future
*) Source: Indonesia Cement Association, un-audited figures
11
AREA
7M 2013
7M 2012
CHANGE (%)
Jakarta
3,100,149
2,931,018
5.8
Banten
1,992,328
1,840,395
8.3
West Java
4,777,748
4,484,707
6.5
Central Java
3,821,570
3,381,628
13.0
Yogyakarta
551,516
459,054
20.1
East Java
4,139,932
3,856,119
7.4
Total Java
18,383,244
16,952,920
8.4
Sumatera
6,997,806
6,817,960
2.6
Kalimantan
2,533,931
2,286,612
10.8
Sulawesi
2,316,225
2,211,146
4.8
Nusa Tenggara
1,903,735
1,752,573
8.6
Maluku & Papua
722,131
681,730
5.9
TOTAL
INDONESIA
32,857,071
30,702,942
7.0
Export Cement
88,640
56,852
55.9
Export Clinker
156,640
100,416
56.0
Total Export
245,280
157,268
56.0
GRAND TOTAL
33,102,351
30,860,210
7.3
7M 2013 –
Domestic Consumption
(mio tons)
DESCRIPTION
7M-13
7M-12
CHANGE (%)
DOMESTIC
14,370,439
12,280,199
17.0
Indonesia
GRAND TOTAL
14,511,746
12,316,829
17.8
Industry Sales Type (mio tons)
7M-13
7M-12
YoY Change
Bag
25.9 (79.0%)
24.9 (81.2%)
4.2%
Bulk
6.9 (21.0%)
5.7 (18.8%)
19.4%
7M 2013 - SMGR Sales Volume
(million tons)
MARKET UPDATE - Cement Consumption 7M-2013
SMGR Sales Type (mio tons)
7M-13
7M-12
YoY Change
Bag
11.0 (76.8%)
9.7 (79.4%)
13.1%
COMPANY PROFILE
SMGR Corporate Presentation
Together We Build a Better Future
13
1957 : Inauguration of Gresik I, installed capacity of 250,000 ton cement per annum
1991 : Initial Public Offering, Market Cap.: IDR0.63tn, resulting shareholding structure post IPO:
●
Government of Republic of Indonesia: 73%
●
Public: 27%
1995 : Acquisition of PT Semen Padang (Persero) and PT Semen Tonasa (Persero)
1998 : Cemex became a strategic partner, Market Cap.: IDR4.9tn
2006 :
Blue Valley Holdings bought Cemex’s 24.9% stake in SMGR, Market Cap.: IDR21.5tn
2010 : In March 31, Blue Valley Holdings sold all of its stake ownership in SMGR, Market Cap per April 30, 2010: IDR72.1tn
2011 : Total installed capacity of 20.00mm tons, Market Cap per June 29, 2012: IDR67.0tn
2012 : Acquisition of Thang Long Cement Vietnam, Total installed capacity of 2.3mm tons, Market Cap Dec 19
th, 2012: IDR91.9tn
BRIEF HISTORY
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1957
-
1970
-
1980
-
198419851986
-
1990
-
199519971998
-
2006200720082009201020112012
SMGR CAPACITY BUILD-OUT (MM TONS)
Pre-consolidated capacity
Post-consolidated capacity
Installed capacity: 25.3 mio tons (2012)
including TLCC
_
_
_
_
_
_
Public
The Government of the Republic of Indonesia
PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
PT Semen Padang
PT Semen Tonasa
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE
1¹ As of Dec 18, 2012
51.01%
48.99%
99.99%
99.99%
Name
Activities
% Ownership
1. Igasar
Cement distribution & Trading
12.00%
2. Sepatim B
General trading, cement packaging 85.00%
3. Bima SA
General trading, cement packaging 80.00%
4. SUPS
Cement Packaging
10.00%
Name
Activities
% Ownership
1. UTSG
Limestone & Clay Mining
55.00%
2. IKSG
Cement Packaging
60.00%
3. KIG
Industrial Estate
65.00%
4. Swadaya Gra
Steel fabrication, contractor
25.00%
5. Varia Usaha
Transport and general trading
24.90%
6. Eternit Gresik
Building materials
17.60%
7. SGG Prima Coal Trading Coal
99.99%
8. SGG Prima Beton Ready Mix Concrete
99.99%
Thang Long Cement, VN
70.00%
PT Semen Gresik
Name
Activities
% Ownership
1. UTSG
Limestone & Clay Mining
55.00%
2. IKSG
Packaging Paper
60.00%
3. KIG
Industrial Estate
65.00%
4. Swadaya Graha Conyractor & Machine Fabricator 25.00%
5. Varia Usaha
Transport and general trading
24.90%
6. Eternit Gresik
Building materials
17.60%
7. SGG Energy Prima Coal Mining and Trading
97.00%
8. SGG Prima Beton
Ready Mix Concrete
99.99%
Competitiveness of Semen Indonesia
Integrated Cement Plant
4 location
Kiln
13 Unit
Cement Mill
22 Unit
Grinding Plant
2 location
Cement Mill
4 Unit
Warehouse
30 location
Packing Plant
21 location
Sea Port
11 location
Kiln
1 unit
Cement
Mill
1 unit
Kiln
4 unit
Cement
Mill
6 unit
Kiln
4 unit
Cement
Mill
9 unit
Grinding
Plant
1 unit Cement
Mill
Kiln
4 unit
Cement
Mill
6 unit
Grinding
Plant
FINANCIAL UPDATE
SMGR Corporate Presentation
Together We Build a Better Future
17
EBITDA
(Rp billion)
NET INCOME
(Rp billion)
EBITDA Margin
(%)
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
29.7
31.7
33.2
34.6
33.0
35.0
NET INCOME Margin
(%)
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
18.5
20.7
23.1
25.3
24.0
24.7
4,970
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
4847
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Description
(Rp bn)
FY 2011
FY 2012
Change
(%)
Net Revenue
16,379
19,598
19.7
Cost of Revenue
8,892
10,300
15.8
Gross Profit
7,487
9,297
24.2
Operating Expenses
2,595
3,116
20.1
Operating Income
4,892
6,181
26.4
EBITDA
2)
5,402
6,869
27.2
Net Income
3,925
4,847
23.5
EPS (Rp)
662
817
23.5
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT
–
1H2013
Description
(Rp bn)
1H2012
1H2013
Change
(%)
Revenue
8,658
11,422
31.9
Cost of Revenue
4,696
6,275
33.6
Gross Profit
3,961
5,146
29.9
Operating Expenses
1,318
1,779
35.0
Operating Income
2,644
3,366
27.3
EBITDA
2,893
3,858
33.3
Net Income
2,103
2,584
22.9
EPS (full amount)
355
436
22.9
Ratio (%)
Formula
1H2012
1H2013
Ebitda Margin
Ebitda / Revenue
33.4
33.8
Interest Coverage (x)
Ebitda / Interest Expense
237.0
24.9
Total Debt to Equity
a)
Total Debt / Total Equity
15.8
22.2
Total Debt to Asset
a)
Total Debt / Total Asset
10.4
15.5
Together We Build a Better Future
Cash balance (IDR bn)
Total debt (IDR bn)
3,905
3,682
3317
3,846
5,283
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3,850
251
199
686
1,871
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
* Include short term investment
Debt/EBITDA
Return on Assets
0,06x
2,00x
0,35x
0,04x
0,14x
0.56x
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
The projected adjusted debt/EBITDA of 2.0x and
operating margin below 20-%23% to maintain rating
level from Moody’s Investors Service.
18.2%
24.0%
25.8%
23.5%
20.1%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
50%
50%
55%
50%
50%
45%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Average: 50%
SMGR DIVIDEND PAY OUT RATIO IN THE LAST 6 YEARS
REGULAR DIVIDENDS
Key determinants of
dividend policy:
•
Historical dividend payout
trends
•
Comparison with peers
•
Projected cash-flows
available for dividends
(after taking into account
potential expansionary
capex etc)
•
Analyst and investor
expectations
•
Shareholder profile
REGULAR DIVIDEND PAYMENTS WITH ATTRACTIVE YIELD
887,7
1261,7
1829,5 1816,7
1962,7
2181,3
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Dividen Pay Out
Together We Build a Better Future
21
STRATEGIC PROJECTS
SMGR Corporate Presentation
SMGR
THE OVERALL
STRATEGY
COMBINES
6
CRITICAL
ELEMENTS
1. Undertake Capacity Growth
2. Manage Energy Security
3. Enhance Company Image
4. Move Closer To The Customer
5. Enable Corporate Growth
6. Manage Key Risks
Together We Build a Better Future
23
Tuban’s ie
Pyroprocessing Tonasa V
Jetty Extension Area
Tu
ban
Tona
sa
Tona
sa
ESP Power Plant
These strategic projects will ensure sustainability of
the Company’s market leadership
Preheater Tuban IV
Raw Mill Dept. Tonasa V
New Plants
Location
Capacity
(mn tons)
Investment
(US$ mn)
Construction
Start
Completed
Indarung VI-SumBar
3.0
352
2013
Q4-2015
Rembang-Java 2
3.0
403
2013
Q2-2016
TOTAL CAPEX
6.0
755
17.1
18
19
19
20.2
25.3
30
31.8
33.3
39.3
40.8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
Installed Capacity
Together We Build a Better Future
CONCLUSION: WHY SMGR?
SMGR Corporate Presentation
August 2013
Outstanding
structure and
financial
policies
Robust cash flow
generation
Outstanding business performance
–
Leading cement player in Indonesia with over 43.% market share based on
sales volume for 7M-2013 and approximately 41% share of total installed
cement capacity (Source: Indonesia Cement Association (“ASI”))
–
Strategically plants location is close to key markets throughout the country
–
As of Dec 2012, acquired Thang Long Cement Company, Vietnam by 70%
share with installed capacity 2.3 mio tons per annum
–
Substantial growth opportunities through expansion and optimization
–
Superior distribution network and strong brands recognition
–
Long-term access to raw materials for cement production and coal for fuel
consumption
–
Concerns on environmental and Corporate Social Responsibility programs to
ensure sustainable growth.
Favourable industry outlook
–
Cement consumption pretty much in-line with Indonesian economic growth
–
Real estate and infrastructure projects and declining interest rates key
demand drivers
–
High barriers to entry (plant, distribution and brand investment costs)
–
Disciplined investment on supply side
Robust cash flow generation
–
Historically strong revenue, margin and price trends
–
High plant utilization and strong focus on cost and revenue management
Conservative capital structure and financial policies
–
[Investment grade-like credit metrics]
–
Conservative capital structure policy; low use of leverage
–
Access to capital markets for expansion initiatives
Experienced management team
–
Experienced and successful management team
Strengths of SMGR
SMGR’s COMPARATIVE & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE DRIVE
S SMGR TO BE
Together We Build a Better Future
27
27
Main Office:Semen Gresik Tower Jln. Veteran Gresik 61122 –Indonesia Phone: (62-31) 3981731 -2, 3981745 Fax: (62-31) 3983209, 3972264
Jakarta Office:
The East Building, 18thFloor,
Jln. DR. Ide Anak Agung Gde Agung Kav. E3.2 No.1, Mega Kuningan, Jakarta 12950–Indonesia
Phone : (62-21) 5261174–5 Fax : (62-21) 5261176
www.semenindonesia.com
THANK YOU
IMPORTANT NOTICE
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND IS NOT MADE IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY OFFER FOR SALE OR SUBSCRIPTION OF OR SOLICITATION, RECOMMENDATION OR INVITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES NOR SHALL IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT, COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER.
THE SLIDES USED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND HAVE BEEN PREPARED AS A SUPPORT FOR ORAL DISCUSSIONS ONLY. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS BEING PRESENTED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON, IN WHOLE OR IN PART.
This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and forecast about future events. Such statements involve known / unknown risks uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Such factors include, among others:
● economic, social and political conditions in Indonesia, and the impact such conditions have on construction and infrastructure spending in Indonesia; ● the effects of competition;
● the effects of changes in laws, regulations, taxation or accounting standards or practices; ● acquisitions, divestitures and various business opportunities that we may pursue; ● changes or volatility in inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates;
● accidents, natural disasters or outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as avian influenza, in our markets; ● labor unrest or other similar situations; and
● the outcome of pending or threatened litigation.
We can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained.
DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents make any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof.
