Company Update
1H13 sales volume
Astra International’s (ASII) 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by 6.5% YoY to 321,184 units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY growth during the same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased to 53.4% in 1H13 from 56.4% in the same period last year. Despite lower market share, ASII’s total 4W sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of 280,755 units in 1H13. We foresee ASII prefers profitability in its strategy for 4W market this year as margins from its other business were eroded. We still maintain our buy stance on ASII, which is trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
4W market share decrease to 53.4% in 1H13. ASII 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by 6.5% YoY to 321,184 units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY growth during the same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased to 53.4% in 1H13 from 56.4% in the same period last year. The lower market share is mainly due higher sales volume growth from its competitors, namely Suzuki and Honda. Suzuki sales volume during the same period jumped 46.6% due to the company’s new product, Ertiga, that manage to penetrate well in domestic small MPV market. Meanwhile, Honda posted a significant 89.6% YoY increase as the brand has recovered from Thailand flood that affect Honda’s sales volume in early 2012.
2W sales volume growth outpaced other brands. In the flipside, ASII’s 2W sales volume in 1H13 posted higher performance as compared to its competitors as sales volume edged up by 4.4% YoY as compared to non ASII’s 2W sales volume that decreased by 0.6% YoY. Consequently, ASII’s market share in 2W market jumped to 60.3% in 1H13 from 56.8% in 1H12.
Sales volume is still way above competitors. Despite lower market share in 4W, ASII’s total 4W sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of 280,755 units in 1H13. Furthermore, the lower market share was mainly due to higher growth from other brands, which showed that domestic 4W market is growing in a positive course during 1H13 as demand for new products remains solid. In addition to that, an intensive competition between automotive players provides attractive options for consumers and maintains their appetites for automotive products. This would help automotive sector to overcome higher fuel price impact and increasing interest rate environment. Despite such opportunity, the automotive players have to intensively choose between growth speed and profitability. We foresee ASII prefer profitability in its strategy for 4W market this year as margins from its other business were eroded.
Maintain Buy. In all, ASII’s automotive business posted solid operational performance during 1H13 period, thus, it would maintain revenue growth momentum from this segment. However, we expect a soft revenue from agribusiness business as performance will be affected by lower selling price and also from heavy equipment, which revenue will be dragged by lower sales volume. During 5M13, ASII’s subsidiary sales volume in heavy equipment plunged 43.0% YoY to 2,126 units from 3,729 units, indicating similar weak sales volume performance in 1H13 period. However, it’s already been expected as the performance in previous earnings publication signals a lower 2013F figures from this business. We still maintain our buy stance on ASII, which is trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
Astra International
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Public
Year-end 31-Dec 2010 2011 2,012 2013F 2014F
Revenue (Rp bn) 129,991 162,564 188,053 190,697 201,507 EBITDA (Rp bn) 17,325 21,807 24,905 24,092 26,154 Net profit (Rp bn) 14,366 17,783 19,421 19,629 21,513
DPS (Rp) 171 217 193 195 213
DPS Yield (%) 2.6 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.2
EPS (Rp) 356 441 481 486 533
Astra International
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Exh. 1: Domestic 4W sales volume
Unit 1H12 1H13 % YoY Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 %MoM
DAIHATSU 80,319 88,446 10.1% 15,788 15,426 15,941 14,882 -6.6%
ISUZU 16,731 16,227 -3.0% 2,619 2,700 2,682 2,808 4.7%
NISSAN DIESEL 1,907 992 -48.0% 146 175 142 179 26.1%
TOYOTA 202,518 215,353 6.3% 32,799 39,730 36,358 35,192 -3.2%
PEUGEOT 160 166 3.8% 17 28 20 51 155.0%
301,635 321,184 6.5% 51,369 58,059 55,143 53,112 -3.7%
NON ASTRA
MITSUBISHI 73,987 77,434 4.7% 12,690 12,836 11,819 13,204 11.7% SUZUKI 51,456 75,425 46.6% 8,399 13,602 10,008 15,578 55.7%
NISSAN 34,229 31,340 -8.4% 4,648 3,355 5,910 5,431 -8.1%
HONDA 26,018 49,342 89.6% 11,497 6,707 8,313 7,550 -9.2%
OTHERS 47,936 47,214 -1.5% 7,333 7,639 8,375 9,390 12.1%
233,626 280,755 20.2% 44,567 44,139 44,425 51,153 15.1%
Total 535,261 601,939 12.5% 95,936 102,198 99,568 104,265 4.7%
Source : Gaikindo
Exh. 2 : Domestic 2W sales volume
Unit 1H12 1H13 % YoY Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 % MoM Honda 2,101,881 2,364,297 12.5% 410,194 391,780 373,435 390,023 4.4%
Non Astra
Yamaha 1,311,323 1,277,781 -2.6% 217,517 217,620 222,693 214,998 -3.5% Suzuki 222,498 208,645 -6.2% 27,735 33,557 32,768 45,315 38.3% Kawasaki 61,015 69,020 13.1% 9,452 15,107 14,771 8,398 -43.1%
TVS 5,637 3,952 -29.9% 436 609 1,001 770 -23.1%
Non Astra 1,600,473 1,559,398 -2.6% 255,140 266,893 271,233 269,481 -0.6%
Total 2W 3,702,354 3,923,695 6.0% 665,334 658,673 644,668 659,504 2.3%
Source : AISI
Exh. 2 : ASII’s gross margin
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13
Otomotif Financial Heavy Equipment Agribusiness Others
Astra International
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Income statement Balance Sheet
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn) 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn) 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F
Revenue
Total 129,991 162,564 188,053 190,697 201,507 Cash & Deposits 7,078 13,190 11,227 18,165 19,543
% growth 32 25 16 1 6 Other curr asset 39,765 52,788 64,572 64,116 78,212 Net fixed asset 27,547 38,326 52,811 55,646 58,317 COGS -103,117 -130,530 -151,853 -153,891 -162,007 Other asset 38,467 49,217 53,664 57,654 62,600
Gross Profit 26,874 32,034 36,200 36,807 39,500 Total asset 112,857 153,521 182,274 195,581 218,672
Opr Profit 14,725 17,832 19,870 20,247 22,002
EBITDA 17,325 21,807 24,905 24,092 26,154 ST debt 4,689 4,681 7,202 6,528 6,367
% growth 13 26 14 -3 9 Other curr liab 32,435 43,690 46,976 51,366 61,597 LT debt 13,935 23,950 29,964 27,490 26,683 Net int inc/ (exp) 18 -14 -330 -324 -317 Other LT Liabs 3,109 5,362 8,318 8,482 8,650 Gain/ (loss) forex -26 118 -215 0 0 Minority interest 9,379 15,389 18,613 18,613 18,613 Other inc/ (exp) 1,410 2,180 2,352 2,573 2,580 Total Liabilities 54,168 77,683 92,460 93,866 103,297
Pre-tax Profit 21,031 25,772 27,898 28,779 30,840 Shareholders Equty 49,310 60,449 71,201 83,062 96,723
Tax -4,027 -4,697 -5,156 -6,161 -6,637
Minority Int. -2,638 -3,292 -3,321 -2,989 -2,690 Key Ratios
Extra. Items 0 0 0 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F
NetProfit 14,366 17,783 19,421 19,629 21,513 Gross Margin (%) 20.7 19.7 19.2 19.3 19.6
% growth 43 24 9 1 10 Operating Margin (%) 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.6 10.9 Net Margin (%) 11.1 10.9 10.3 10.3 10.7 EBITDA Margin (%) 13.3 13.4 13.2 12.6 13.0
Cash Flow
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn) 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F ROE (%) 32.2 32.4 29.5 25.4 23.9
Net Income 14,366 17,783 19,421 19,629 21,513 ROA (%) 14.2 13.4 11.6 10.4 10.4 Depreciation 2,600 3,975 5,035 3,845 4,152
Change in WC -1,552 -1,776 -5,977 4,172 -4,026 EBIT / Interest Expenses (x) 30.4 25.1 19.5 24.0 26.3
Cash Flow From Operation 15,414 19,982 18,479 27,646 21,639 EBITDA / Interest Expenses (x) 35.8 30.7 24.4 28.6 31.3
Capex -5,592 -14,754 -19,520 -6,680 -6,824 Net Debt / Equity (x) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 Others -10,679 -10,750 -4,447 -3,990 -4,946
Cash Flow From Investment -16,271 -25,504 -23,967 -10,670 -11,769 Efficiency
Change in debts 3,268 10,015 6,014 -2,474 -808 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F
Dividends -5,221 -6,886 -8,760 -7,768 -7,852 AR turnover (days) 25.0 28.1 30.6 31.7 39.0 Others 1,117 8,505 6,271 164 168 Inventory turnover (days) 38.4 32.1 31.9 32.8 34.7
Cash Flow From Financing -836 11,634 3,525 -10,078 -8,491 AP turnover (days) 43.8 49.2 50.1 53.7 66.3
Net trade Cycle (days) 13.2 10.8 13.3 12.7 8.3
Valuation
2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F
PER (x) 18.7 15.1 13.8 13.7 12.5
PBV (x) 5.4 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.8
Astra International
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RESEARCH
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