E k o n o m i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s i a V o l 3 9 , N o . 4 , 1 9 9 1
Investasi Swasia dan Pemerintah;
Substitusi alau Komplementer ?:
Kasus Indonesia.
Mohamad IkhsanM. Chatib Basri
Abstract
The purpose of the articel is three-fold. First, to contruct an investment function for Indonesia. Second, to test the relation between govemment and private investments. Third, to test McKinnon's proposition that investment in developing countries is constrained by credit availibility, rather than interest rate.
Based on a .synthesis of neoclassical and Keynessian models, the autlwrs construct a model of private investment in Indonesia, which is assumed to be a function of expectations about output, cyclical and fiscal variables, monetary conditions and exchange rates. They find that govemment investment is a complement for private investment. This complementarity relation ship is caused by the sources of finance in the past, which was mainly from foreign sources. In addition, a bulk of govemment investment is aimed
at infrastructures.
They also find that monetary policy has no impact in the short mn, but does affect private investment in the longer term. Exchange rate management employing nominal exchange rate target tends to push the price level by rising the price of imported input.
I . Pendahuluan K e s u l i t a n - k e s u l i t a n y a n g y a n g d i a l a m i o l e h b a n y a k n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d e w a s a i n i m e m b e s a m y a d e f i s i t t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d a n n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n , k e n a i k a n t i n g k a t i n f i a s i , b e b a n h u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i , d a n m u n g k i n p e n u r u n a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i - t e l a h m e n d o r o n g t i m b u l n y a p e m i k i r a n k e m b a l i t e r h a d a p s t r a t e g i p e m b a n g u n a n k h u s u s n y a y a n g m e n y a n g k u t p e r a n a n p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n . M u n c u l n y a l i b e r a l i s a s i p e r e k o n o m i a n p a d a a w a l t a h u n 1 9 7 0 a n d a n p r i v a t i s a s i p a d a a w a l t a h u n 1 9 8 0 a n m e r u p a k a n c o n t o h d a r i m e n i n g k a m y a s e n t i m e n t e r h a d a p p e r a n a n p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d a n s e k a l i g u s u s a h a u n t u k m e n g e m b a l i k a n p e r a n a n p a s a r d a l a m m e n e n t u k a n a l o k a s i d a n d i s t r i b u s i s u m b e r - s u m b e r d a y a . H a r u s d i a k u i b a h w a p a s a r s e n d i r i t i d a k m a m p u b e r f u n g s i s e c a r a s e m p u r n a s e p e r t i y a n g d i u r a i k a n d a l a m b u k u t e k s , t e t a p i p e n g a l a m a n e m p i r i s m e m b u k t i k a n k e g a g a l a n p e m e r i n t a h (govemment failure) l e b i h b e s a r d a m p a k n e g a t i f n y a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e g a g a l a n p a s a r s e n d i r i ^. M e s k i p u n d e m i k i a n t i d a k s e m u a i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g n e g a t i f t e r h a d a p p e r e k o n o m i a n . P e n g a l a m a n K o r e a S e l a t a n m e n u n j u k k a n i n t e r v e n s i y a n g tepat d a n e f i s i e n m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g m e m u a s k a n p u l a . L e b i h j a u h l a g i , i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h t e t a p d i b u t u h k a n k a r e n a t i d a k m u n g k i n p a s a r ( b a c a s w a s t a ) m e n g a m b i l a l i h p r o s e s a l o k a s i t e r s e b u t k a r e n a a k a n m e n i m b u l k a n d i s t o r s i b a r u . P r a k t e k m o n o p o l i a l a m i a h y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h s e k t o r s w a s t a m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k y a n g n e g a t i f l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n j i k a h a l i t u d i l a k u k a n o l e h s e k t o r p u b l i k . P e n y e d i a a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g p u b l i k m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u c o n t o h a k a n k e b u t u h a n p e r a n p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n y a n g t i d a k a k a n m a m p u d i l a k s a n a k a n d e n g a n b a i k o l e h s e k t o r s w a s t a . I n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d a l a m m e m b e r i k a n p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f m a u p u n n e g a t i f . D a l a m k o n d i s i k e t e r b a t a s a n p a s a r d a n s u m b e r d a y a , i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h d a p a t m e n s u b s i t u s i k a n s e k t o r s w a s t a j i k a i n t e r v e n s i t e r s e b u t m e n g h i l a n g k a n a t a u m e n g u r a n g i k e s e m p a t a n b a g i s e k t o r s w a s t a u n t u k b e r u s a h a d i s e k t o r t e r s e b u t a t a u j i k a i n t e r v e n s i t e r s e b u t m e n g u r a n g i s u m b e r p e m b i a y a a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a b a i k s e c a r a l a n g s u n g m a u p u n t i d a k l a n g s u n g m e l a l u i k e n a i k a n b i a y a m o d a l . D i p i h a k l a i n i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h d a p a t b e r s i f a t k o m p l e m e n t e r j i k a i a m e n d o r o n g p e r t u m b u h a n k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i d a r i s e k t o r s w a s t a . P e m b a n g u n a n
1 I ,ih.it Anne Krueger. "Government F a i l u r e in Economic Development". The Jourreil of Economic Perspective, Vol. 4 No. X 1990 i h n Mrinai D.-itta-Chaudhuri, " M a r k e t F a i l u r e and Gowrnmet F a i l u r e " dalam Journal yang sama sena Albert Eishlow. "The L a t i n . A m e r i c a State", dalam Journal yang sama
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t a h i n f r a s t r u k t u r m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u c o n t o h d a r i k e g i a t a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g m e m b e r i k a n p e n g a r u h k o m p l e m e n t e r t e r h a d a p s e k t o r s w a s t a . j U n t u k k a s u s I n d o n e s i a , i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s e b a g i a n b e s a r d i b i a y a i d e n g a n p a j a k m i g a s d a n h u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i . K e d u a s u m b e r d a n a t i d a k m e m p e n g a r u h i s u m b e r d a n a d a l a m n e g e r i s e c a r a l a n g s u n g , s e h i n g g a e f e k s u b s t i t u s i l a n g s u n g t i d a k a k a n t e r j a d i d a l a m m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . m e s k i p u n d e m i k i a n m a s i h t e r d a p a t k e m u n g k i n a n "Crowding-out effect" t e r j a d i p e r t a m a , m e l a l u i d a m p a k i n f l a s i y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n o l e h d e f i s i t a n g g a r a n p e m e r i n t a h ^, a t a u k e d u a m e l a l u i , d a m p a k s u b s i t u s i y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n o l e h h u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i t e r h a d a p t a b u n g a n d o m e s t i k T u l i s a n i n i b e r t u j u a n u n t u k ( i ) M e n y u s u n s u a t u f u n g s i i n v e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a , ( i i ) m e n e l i t i a p a k a h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s e l a m a i n i m e m p u n y a i d a m p a k ( e f e k ) k o m p l e m e n t e r a t a u s u b s t i t u s i t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a ; ( i i i ) m e n g u j i a p a k a h h i p o t e s i s y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h M c K i n n o n b a h w a i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g l e b i h d i t e n t u k a n o l e h k e t e r s e d i a a n d a n a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t i n g k a t b u n g a . S e c a r a s i s t e m a t i s t u l i s a n i n i a k a n d i b a g i atas l i m a b a g i a n y a i t u : ( i ) p e n d a h u l u a n ; ( i i ) t r e n d i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d a n p e m e r i n t a h ; ( i i i ) k e r a n g k a a n a l i s i s ; ( i v ) p e n g u j i a n e m p i r i s ; ( v ) K e s i m p u l a n d a n i m p l i k a s i k e b i j a k a n .
II. Trend Investasi Swasta dan Pemerintah 1970-1990
D i l i h a t s e c a r a , a b s o l u t , - k e c u a l i u n t u k t a h u n t e r s e b u t - p e r k e m b a n g a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a m e n g a l a m i p e n i n g k a t a n s e c a r a s i s t i m a t i s d a n k o n s i s t e n . D a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 9 0 , t o t a l i n v e s t a s i t u m b u h d e n g a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n r a t a - r a t a p e r t a h u n s e b e s a r 1 3 , 4 2 p e r s e n . T e t a p i j i k a d i l i h a t b e r d a s a r k a n p e r i o d e t e r t e n t u t e r d a p a t f l u k t u a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n i n v e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a . H i n g g a p e r i o d e oil boom, p e r t u m b u h a n t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a s a n g a t t i n g g i , t e t a p i s e j a l a n d e n g a n p e n u r u n a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i - s e b a g a i a k i b a t p e n u r u n a n h a r g a m i g a s - l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n i n v e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a m e n g a l a m i p e r l a m b a t a n . T a b e l 1 m e n u n j u k k a n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 8 6 i n v e s t a s i s e c a r a t o t a l h a n y a t u m b u h s e b e s a r 2 , 3 p e r s e n p e r t a h u n , j a u h d i b a w a h l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p e r i o d e s e b e l u m n y a . G a m b a r 1
2 Hasil studi yang dilakukan oleh Marl Pangcstu (1986) menunjukkan bahwa defisit domestik anggaran merupakan sumber pcnciptaan inflasi di Indonesia. Kenaikan tingkat inflasu akan mendorong kenaikan tingkat bunga nominal -dalam kondisi tanpa pagu kredit- yang pada gilirannya akan menumnkan tingkat investasi domestik. Sementara dalam kondisi f i n a n c i a l Repression, kenaikan tinglrat inflasi akan menyebabkan sumber dana yang tersedia melalui Lnbungan domestik akan menuma ceteris paribus, akan menurunkan tingkat investasi di Indonesia
3 Hasil studi yang dilakukan oleh Ikhsan (1988) menunjukkan hutang luar negeri mempunyai dampak substitusi tci+ndap tabungan luar negeri. yang berarti kenaikan hutang luar negeri telah menghilangkan kemungkinan kenaikan tabungan domestik
m c n u n j u k a n s e c a r a j e l a s b a h w a p e r t u m b u h a n i n v e s t a s i s a n g a t b e r f l u k t u a s i m e n g i k u t i p e r k e m b a n g a n k o n d i s i p e r e k o n o m i a n . I n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a n s w a s t a a s i n g m e r u p a k a n j e n i s i n v e s t a s i y a n g p a l i n g b e r f l u k t u a s i d i b a n d i n g k a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d o m e s t i k . F l u k t u a s i t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i j u g a t e r l i h a t j i k a i n v e s t a s i d i u k u r s e b a g a i r a s i o t e r h a d a p P D B . S e b e t u l n y a s e c a r a t e o r i t i s , f l u k t u a s i d a l a m i n v e s t a s i t e r g o l o n g n o r m a l . M e n u r u t K e y n e s d a n p e n g a l a m a n e m p i r i s d i b a n y a k n e g a r a , d i a n t a r a k o m p o n e n p e r m i n t a a n a g r e g a t , i n v e s t a s i m e r u p a k a n v a r i a b e l y a n g p a l i n g b e r f l u k t u a s i d a n r e s p o n s n y a s a n y a t i n g g i t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n k o n d i s i p e r e k o n o m i a n . P e r k e m b a n g a n pesat d a r i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a t e r u t a m a t e r j a d i s e t e l a h t a h u n 1 9 7 5 . T e t a p i s e b a g a i a k i b a t k e l e s u a n e k o n o m i y a n g t e r j a d i d a l a m p e r i o d e post oil boom, t e r l i h a t r a s i o i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a t e r h a d a p P D B c e n d e r u n g m e n g a l a m i s t a g n a s i d a n b a h k a n m e n u r u n h i n g g a t a h u n 1 9 8 6 . B a r u s e t e l a h a d a n y a r e f o r m a s i e k o n o m i s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 7 , t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i m e n i n g k a t k e m b a l i . D i l i h a t d a r i k o m p o s i s i i n v e s t a s i , t e r l i h a t h i n g g a t a h u n 1 9 8 0 , p o r s i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a m a s i h r e l a t i h b e r i m b a n g d a l a m p e m b e n t u k a n m o d a l t e t a p d o m e s t i k b r u t o . T e t a p i s e j a l a n d e n g a n p e n u r u n a n h a r g a m i g a s , p e r a n a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a m a k i n m e n o n j o l . H a s i l n y a s e b a g a i m a n a t e r l i h a t p a d a T a b e l .3, 7 5 pjcrsen d a r i i n v e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a b e r a s a l d a r i s e k t o r s w a s t a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 0 , d a n b e r b e d a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 a n d i m a n a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h c e n d e r u n g l e b i h m e n o n j o l . M e n a r i k j u g a m e l i h a t k o m p o s i s i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a s e n d i r i . M e n g g u n a k a n d a t a i n v e s t a s i l a n g s u n g ( d a l a m n i l a i b r u t o ) d a r i s t a t i s t i k n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n s e b a g a i p r o k s i i n v e s t a s i a s i n g , t e r l i h a t p e r a n a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d o m e s t i k c e n d e r u n g d o m i n a n d a l a m p e m b e n t u k a n m o d a l d o m e s t i k b r u t o s e k t o r s w a s t a k h u s u s n y a s e t e l a h t a h u n 1 9 7 5 . P e r a n a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a s e c a r a k o n s i s t e n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 7 3 d a n p e r a n a n n y a p a d a a k h i r 1 9 7 0 a n d a n ] 9 8 0 a n s a n g a t s a n g a t k e c i l y a i t u h a n y a s e k i t a r 2 -3 % d a r i t o t a l p e m b e n t u k a n m o d a l t e t a p b r u t o . B a r u s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 7 t e r j a d i l o n j a k a n d a l a m i n v e s t a s i a s i n g . H a l i n i d i d u g a m e r u p a k a n d a m p a k p o s i t i f d a r i b e r b a g a i I a n g k a h r e f o r m a s i e k o n o m i y a n g d i l a k u k a n p e m e r i n t a h u n t u k m e n g u r a n g i d i s t o r s i - d i s t o r s i y a n g m e l i l i t i p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a . T e r d a p a t b e b e r a p a h a l y a n g m e n a r i k u n t u k d i a n g k a t d i p e r m u k a a n y a i t u :
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t a h Pertama, t e r d a p a t k o r e l a s i y a n g p o s i t i f a n t a r a i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h k e c u a l i s e l a m a p e r i o d e p e n y e s u a i a n 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 8 8 . K o r e l a s i i n i d i m u n g k i n k a n k a r e n a s e b a g i a n d a r i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a i n i t e r m a s u k d i d a l a m n y a a d a l a h i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r B U M N . P e n i n g k a t a n p e n y e r t a a n m o d a l p e m e r i n t a h p a d a s a a t oil boom s e c a r a l a n g s u n g a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r s w a s t a . K e m u n g k i n a n l a i n y a n g b e r l a k u s e l a m a a k h i r 1 9 8 0 a n a d a l a h I a n g k a h r e f o r m a s i e k o n o m i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h p e m e r i n t a h s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 0 a n a d a l a h I a n g k a h r e f o r m a s i e k o n o m i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h p e m e r i n t a h s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 3 t i d a k h a n y a t e r b a t a s p a d a I a n g k a h d e r e g u l a s i - y a n g p a d a d a s a r n y a t e l a h m e n g u r a n g i p e r a n p e m e r i n t a h - t e t a p i j u g a r e f o r m a s i d a l a m s i s t i m a n g g a r a n b a i k d a r i s i s i p e n e r i m a a n m a u p u n p e n g e l u a r a n . h a s i l n y a d a p a t d i l i h a t d a r i p e n i n g k a t a n y a n g s i g n i f i k a n d a l a m p e n e r i m a a n p a j a k y a n g p a d a g i l i r a n n y a a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n k e t e r s e d i a a n d a n a p e m b a n g u n a n d i s a m p i n g p e n e r i m a a n p a j a k . D i sisi p e n g e l u a r a n , s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 2 , p e m e r i n t a h t e l a h m e m b u a t s k a l a p r i o r i t a s p a d a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h . I n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h k i n i d i a r a h k a n p a d a p e n g e m b a n g a n i n f r a s t r u k t u r u n t u k m e n d o r o n g m i n a t i n v e s t o r s w a s t a . Kedua, p e n i n g k a t a n i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r s w a s t a s e l a m a b e b e r a p a t a h u n t e r a k h i r i n i t e r j a d i t e r u t a m a o l e h p e n i n g k a t a n p e n a n a m a n m o d a l a s i n g l a n g s u n g (Direct Foreign Investment) y a n g b a i k s e c a r a a b s o l u t m a u p u n d i l i h a t s e b a g a i r a s i o m e n i n g k a t k h u s u s n y a s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 7 y a n g m e r u p a k a n h a s i l p o s i t i f d a r i I a n g k a h d e r e g u l a s i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h p e m e r i n t a h j u g a m e r u p a k a n b a g i a n d a r i r e a l o k a s i s e k t o r i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a m a j u d a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i b a r u k e n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g l a i n n y a s e p e r t i T h a i l a n d , M a l a y s i a d a n I n d o n e s i a . P e n i g k a t a n i n v e s t a s i a s i n g d i I n d o n e s i a t a m p a k n y a e r a t k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n p e r u b a h a n d a l a m s s t r a t e g i p e r d a g a n g a n y a n g m a k i n b e r o r i e n t a s i k e l u a r (outwarrd lookmg) d a n m e n i n g k a t n y a intra-trade industry d a l a m s t r u k t u r p e r d a g a n g a n d a n i n d u s t r i I n d o n e s i a . Ketiga, l i b e r a l i s a s i s e k t o r f m a n s i a l b a r u b e r f u n g s i p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r k e m b a n g a n t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a s e t e l a h t a h u n 1 9 ^ 9 , y a n g t e l a h m e n i n g k a t k a n a k s e s b a g i i n v e s t o r s w a s t a t e r h a d a p k r e d i t . B e r k e m b a n g n y a p e r b a n k a n s w a s t a n a s i o n a l y a n g t e l a h m e n g u r a n g i p a n g s a p a s a r b a n k p e m e r i n t a h - d i m a n a y a n g t e r a k h i r c e n d e r u n g m e l a y a n i k r e d i t o r - k r e d i t o r b e s a r - t e l a h m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k y a n g p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r k e m b a n g a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . G a m b a r a n i n i j u g a d i d u k u n g o l e h p e n u r u n a n t i n g k a t p e n g g u n a a n d a n a i n t e r n a l d a r i 6 0 - 7 5 p e r s e n d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 8 8 m e n j a d i 3 5 - 4 5 p e r s e n p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 8 9 - 1 9 9 0 Keempat, p e n i n g k a t a n t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g t e r j a d i s e b a g a i a k i b a t l i b e r a l i s a s i s e k t o r f m a n s i a l d a n k e b i j a k a n m o n e t e r k e t a t c e n d e r u n g a k a n
m e n u r u n k a n t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . H a l i n i d a p a t d i l i h a t d a r i p e r k e m b a n g a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d o m e s t i k y a n g c e n d e r u n g m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n s e t e l a h p e r i o d e 1 9 8 9 . H a l i n i d i d u k u n g p u l a s t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h A h m e d d a n C h i b b e r ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e n u n j u k k a n p e n i n g k a t a n 1 p e r s e n d a r i t i n g k a t b u n g a r i i l a k a n m e n u r u n k a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a n o n m i g a s s e b e s a r 7 , 3 p e r s e n ^ Kelima, d e p r e s i a s i n i l a i t u k a r a t a u d e v a l u a s i j u g a c e n d e r u n g a k a n m e n u r u n k a n t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k , m e s k i p u n d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g d a p a t m e m b e r i k a n p o s i t i f . H a s i l s t u d i A h m e d d a n C h i b b e r ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a d e p r e s i a s i a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n b i a y a r i i l d a r i imported and intermediate capital goods d i m a n a k e n a i k a n b i a y a i n i a k a n m e n u r u n k a n n i l a i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . H a l i n i j u g a d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a T a b e l 1 , d i m a n a s e t e l a h t a h u n d i l a k u k a n d e v a l u a s i , t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n . h a l i n i d i p e r k u a t d e n g a n h a s i l s t u d i d a r i A n a n d d a n C h i b b e r y a n g m c n u n j u k a n a d a n y a k o r e l a s i y a n g n e g a t i f a n t a r a i n v e s t a s i d e n g a n t i n g k a t d e p r e s i a s i r u p i a h Keenam, I n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s a n g a t b e r f l u k t u a s i k h u s u s n y a s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 3 . J i k a d a l a m p e r t e n g a h a n t a h u n 1 9 7 0 a n h i n g g a t a h u n 1 9 8 1 , p e r a n a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s a n g a t m e n o n j o l m a k a d a l a m t a h u n b e l a k a n g a n i n i i n v e s t a i p e m e r i n t a h m a k i n t e r t i n g g a l p e r a n a n n y a d a l a m p e r m b e t u k a n m o d a l t e t a p d o m e s t i k b r u t o I n d o n e s i a . P e r k e m b a n g a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h i n i t a m p a k n y a m e m p u n y a i k o r e l a s i y a n g k u a t d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n h a r g a m i g a s . P e n i n g k a t a n h a r g a m i g a s a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n p e n e r i m a a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g p a d a g i l i r a n n y a a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n t a b u n g a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g b e r s a m a - s a m a d e n g a n b a n t u a n l u a r n e g e r i m e r u p a k a n s u m b e r d a n a b a g i i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h ^ . H a l i n i d i p e r k u a t d e n g a n r e g r e s i l i n e a r a n t a r a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d e n g a n h a r g a m i g a s y a n g m e m e b e r i k a n h a s i l a d a n y a k o r e l a s i y a n g s a n g a t k u a t a n t a r a b e s a r n y a
4 Seakan-akan terdafat kontradiksi antara peinyataan dalam poin/keempat dengan kelima. Hal ini akan lebih jelas jika data perkembangan suku bunga disajikan. Deregulasi 1983 telah menghasilkan tingkat bunga riil yang cenderung beriebihan dan hal ini telah -walaupun relatif diperkirakan tidak begitu sensitif- mendorong terjadinya perlambatan dalam pertumbuhan tingkat investasi di Indonesia. Bahkan jika dilihat berdasarkan rasio terhadap PDB, tingkat investasi di Indonesia cenderungmenurun hingga tahun 1988. Bahwa kemudian pada tahun 1989-1990 tingkat investasi swasta domestik meningkat tidaklah sepenunya berarti tingkat investasi di Indonesia tidak sensitif tertiadp tingkat bunga, tetapi melainkan karena sektor swasta di Indonesia mempunyai alternatif sumber peinbiayaan lain yaitu dana internal dan dana hutang luar negeri (off-shore loans). Pengaruh dari tingkat bunga mulai terasa sejak tahun 1991, dimana teriihat kejadian penurunan yang cukup tajam dari nilai investasi PMDN yang telah disetujui oleh BKPM, sementara nilai investasi PMA relatif tidak terpengaruh.
5 Lihat Anand and Chibber (1989a) sebagai penjelasan lebih jauh
6 Investasi pemerintah merupakan variabel kebijakan, dimana besarnya investasi pemerintah terggantung pada penerimaan dan besarnya pengeluaran rutin termasuk pembayaran hutang luar negeri. Dengan demikian investasi pemerintah dapat dianggap fungsi linear dari harga migas, nilai tukar txaninal dan pembayaran hutang luar negeri. Hasil regresi adalah
GIN = 1.540.57 + 104.67 Poll + 2.33 E R - 0.53 C H R + 0.86 GIN(-l) , ( 1 . 2 2 ) (2.94) (2.56) (1.64) (1.22)
A d j R - = 0.98; D u r b i n H = -0.64,dimana:GlN = investasi Pemerintah;Poil = HargaMinyak;ER = Nilai Tukar Nominal ; C H R = Cicilan Hutang Riil
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t a h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d e n g a n h a r g a m i g a s . H a s i l R e g r e s i t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k k a n p u l a b a h w a p e n u r u n a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 8 0 a n j u g a d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a m e m b e n g k a k n y a p e n g e l u a r a n u n t u k b e b a n c i c i l a n h u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i p e m e r i n t a h , d i m a n a p e m e r i n t a h c e n d e r u n g a k a n m e m p r i o r i t a s k a n p e m b a y a r a n h u t a n g d i b a n d i n g k a n k o m p o n e n p e n g e l u a r a n l a i n t e r m a s u k p e n g e l u a r a n u n t u k i n v e s t a s i . I I I . Kerangka Analisis L A . I n v e s t a s i P e m e r i n t a h d a n S w a s t a , S u b s t i t u s i (Crowding-Out) a t a u K o m p l e m e n t e r (Crowding-in) ?, T i n j a u a n T e o r i t i s d a n E m p i r i k . I n v e s t a s i P e m e r i n t a h d a p a t m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a m e l a l u i b e b e r a p a s a l u r a n (Channels) y a i t u : P e r t a m a , I n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h b e r s a i n g d e n g a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d a l a m k o n d i s i k e l a n g k a a n s u m b e r d a y a f i s i k d a n f m a n s i a l . D a l a m k o n d i s i i n i , t a m b a h a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e p u n y a i h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f (crowding-out) i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . C o n t o h k o n g k r i t t e n t a n g hal i n i , b a n y a k t e r j a d i d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g . U n t u k m e l i n d u n g i B U M N y a n g t e l a h b e r k e c i m p u n g d i i n d u s t r i t e r t e n t u , p e m e r i n t a h m e n g h a m b a t a t a u m e n c i p t a k a n p e n g h a l a n g (barrier to entry) b a g i s e k t o r s w a s t a u n t u k m a s u k d a l a m i n d u s t r i t e r s e b u t , s e h i n g g a m e n g h i l a n g k a n k e m u n g k i n a n t e r j a d i n y a i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r s w a s t a . J i k a p e m e r i n t a h t i d a k s e c a r a s e n g a j a m e n c i p t a k a n entrybarriers, k e k u a t a n r a k s a s a B U M N a k a n m a m p u s e c a r a a l a m i a h m e n g h a m b a t s e k t o r s w a s t a u n t u k m a s u k d a l a m i n d u s t r i t e r s e b u t ^. A s p e k l a i n l e b i h b e s a r e f e k crowding-out-nya a d a l a h m e n y a n g k u t p e m b i a y a a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h t e r s e b u t . U n t u k m e m b i a y a i i n v e s t a s i t e r s e b u t p e m e r i n t a h d a p a t m e n g g u n a k a n s u m b e r d a l a m n e g e r i d e n g a n m e n e r b i t k a n s u r a t b e r h a r g a (government bond) atau m e n c e t a k u a n g b a r u . P e n e r b i t a n s u r a t b e r h a r g a o l e h p e m e r i n t a h a k a n m e n d o r o n g k e n a i k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a d i p a s a r u a n g . H a l i n i j e l a s a k a n m e n g u r a n g i m i n a t i n v e s t o r s w a s t a u n t u k m e l a k u k a n i n v e s t a s i . B e g i t u p u l a d e n g a n p e n c e t a k a n u a n g b a r u , y a n g t i d a k l a i n a d a l a h p a j a k i n f l a s i (inflation tax) b a g i m a s y a r a k a t . H a s i l s t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h E d w a r d s ( 1 9 8 5 ) u n t u k k a s u s C o l o m b i a , k e n a i k a n d e f i s i t a n g g a r a n p e m e r i n t a h d e n g a n p e n c e t a k a n u a n g m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f d e n g a n t i n g k a t b u n g a n o m i n a l . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n b e r d a s a r k a n F i s h e r b a h w a t i n g k a t b u n g a r i i l c e n d e r u n g a k a n k o n s t a n d a l a m p a n j a n g . J i k a t i n g k a t b u n g a r i i l d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a g a i t i n g k a t
7 Kondisi yang terakhir mungkin akan lebih baik dampaknya terhadap efisiensi dibandingkan jika barriertoentry diciptakan secara sengaja, karena berdasarkan teori conlestMe M a r i a n , industri yang berada dalam pasar tersebut ak.m dipaksa beroperasi seefisien mungkin untuk mencegah munculnya saingan
b u n g a n o m i n a l d i k u r a n g i d e n g a n e k s p e t a s i t e r h a d a p i n f l a s i , k e n a i k a n t i n g k a t i n f l a s i y a n g d i s e b a b k a n p e n c e t a k a n u a n g b a r u a k a n m e n d o r o n g k e n a i k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a n o m i n a l . P r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n d a l a m p e n d e k a k a n m e n d o r o n g t i n g k a t b u n g a r i i l a k a n b e r a d a d i b a w a h a t a u d i a t a s t i n g k a t b u n g a r i i l j a n g k a p a n j a n g . H a l i n i t e n t u n y a a k a n m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r i l a k u i n v e s t o r s w a s t a u n t u k m e l a k u k a n i n v e s t a s i . D a l a m k o n d i s i t e r j a d i fmacial repression, k e n a i k a n t i n g k a t i n f l a s i y a n g d i s e b a b k a n o l e h d e f i s i t a n g g a r a n y a n g d i b i a y a i o l e h p e n c e t a k a n u a n g a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a r i i l y a n g n e g a t i f . T i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g n e g a t i f a k a n m e n u r u n k a n t a b u n g a n f i n a n s i a l d o m e s t i k m e l a l u i s u b s t i t u s i k e asset r i i l a t a u capital flight y a n g p a d a g i l i r a n n y a a k a n m e n g u r a n g i t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a ^. C o n t o h l a i n y a n g m e n d o r o n g t e r j a d i n y a crowding-out a d a l a h j i k a B a d a n U s a h a M i l i k N e g a r a ( B U M N ) m e n j u a l s a h a m n y a d i p a s a r m o d a l . D e n g a n j a m i n a n p e m e r i n t a h , B U M N s e c a r a j e l a s m e m p u n y a i n i l a i " n i l a i l e b i h " d i b a n d i n g k a n p e r u s a h a a n s w a s t a , s e h i n g g a t e r j u n n y a B U M N d i p a s a r m o d a l t i d a k h a n y a m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f d i p a s a r u a n g ( b e r u p a k e n a i k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a ) t e t a p i m e n g u r a n g i k e t e r s e d i a a n d a n a b a g i s e k t o r s w a s t a d i p a s a r m o d a l . P e n g a r u h crowding-out t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n c e n d e r u n g m e n d u a (ambigious). J i k a s e k t o r s w a s t a l e b i h e f i s i e n d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h , crowding-out j e l a s a k a n m e m p u n y a i d a m p a k n e g a t i f t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n . D a n s e b a l i k n y a , j i k a s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h y a n g l e b i h e f i s i e n , crowding-out a k a n m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h s e b a l i k n y a . P e n g a l a m a n e m p i r i s t a m p a k n y a c e n d e r u n g l e b i h m e n d u k u n g y a n g p e r t a m a . S t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h M o h s i n K h a n d a n 1 9 8 9 m e n u n j u k k a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i y a n g p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i 2 4 n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 7 9 , s e m e n t a r a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h t i d a k m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n ^. D a n i e l L a n d a u ( 1 9 8 6 ) d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n a n a l i s i s k a u s a l i t a s u n t u k b e b e r a p a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g m e n e m u k a n b a h w a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h t i d a k m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n . I n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t q h s e b e t u l n y a m a s i h m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h w a l a u p u n t e r g o l o n g k e c i l -t e r h a d a p p e r -t u m b u h a n , -t e -t a p i k e -t i k a p e n g a r u h p a j a k d a n p e m b i a y a a n i n v e s t a s i t e r s e b u t s e r t a p e n g a r u h crowding-out d a r i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a ,
8 Studi y.nng dih.nsilkan oleh Ikhsan (1989) untuk kasus Indcnesi,-!, Coddington (1987) untuk kasus negara Amerikti Latin menunjukkan bahwa salah satu faktor yang mendorong terjadinya pelarian modal di negara-negara tersebut disebabkan oleh tingkat inflasi yang tinggi yang telah mendorong terjadinya overvalualion nilai tukar di negara-negara tetsebut
9 Hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan model pertumbuhan neo-klasik menghasilkan hubungan yang positif dnn secara statistik signifikan antara pertumbuhan PDB dengan investasi swasta, sementara investasi sektor publik walaupun memberikan arah hubungan yang negatif terhadap pertumbuhiin yang menunjukkan adanya crowding out, tetapi secara statistik tidak signifikan pada derajat kepeivayaan yang konvensional
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t E i h d a m p a k n e t t o a d a l a h n ' o l . H a s i l y a n g s a m a j u g a d i t e m u k a n o l e h B a r r o ( 1 9 9 1 ) y a n g m e l a k u k a n s t u d i u n t u k n e g a r a m a j u d a n n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e s k i p u n m e m b e r i k a n a r a h p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t a p i t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n b e r b e d a d e n g a n n o l s e c a r a s t a t i s t i k . ^ K e m u n g k i n a n k e d u a a d a l a h b e r l a w a n a n d e n g a n y a n g p e r t a m a b a h w a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a p a t b e r s i f a t k o m p l e m e n t e r a t a u m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a p o s i t i f d e n g a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . H a l i n i d a p a t t e r j a d i d a l a m b e r b a g a i k e m u n g k i n a n y a i t u , p e r t a m a . m e n g i k u t i p a h a m K e y n e s i a n , - j i k a s u m b e r d a y a b e l u m s e p e n u h n y a d i g u n a k a n (under-employed) - i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n s e c a r a l a n g s u n g m a u p u n t i d a k l a n g s u n g m e l a l u i multiplier effect, s e h i n g g a i n v e s t o r s w a s t a a k a n t e r d o r o n g u n t u k m e l a k u k a n i n v e s t a s i k a r e n a k e u n t u n g a n y a n g d i p e r o l e h a k a n m e n i n g k a t s e j a l a n d e n g a n k e n a i k a n p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p b a r a n g a k h i r . K e d u a , d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g , s e b a g i a n b e s a r i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e m b a n g u n i n f r a s t r u k t u r f i s i k m a u p u n n o n f i s i k . P e m b a n g u n a n i n f r s t r u k t u r f i s i k s e p e r t i j a l a n r a y a , p e l a b u h a n , p e m b a n g k i t t e n a g a l i s t r i k , j a r i n g a n t e l e p o n d a n i r i g a s i c e n d e r u n g a k a n m e n u r u n k a n b i a y a p r o d u k s i a t a u m e n i n g k a t k a n economies of scale m e l a l u i p e r l u a s a n pasar, d a n p a d a a k h i m y a a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n k e u n t u n g a n i n v e s t o r s w a s t a . B e g i t u p u l a i n v e s t a s i d i b i d a n g s o s i a l s e p e r t i - p e n d i d i k a n , k e s e h a t a n a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n k u a l i t a s t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s s e k a l i g u s p e n u r u n a n b i a y a p r o d u k s i m e l a l u i p e n u r u n a n b i a y a training d a n a k h i m y a a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r s w a s t a . K e t i g a , j i k a p e m e r i n t a h t e r j u n d a l a m b i s n i s s e c a r a l a n g s u n g m a s i h t e r d a p a t k e m u n g k i n a n a k a n t e r j a d i p e n i n g k a t a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . D a l a m k a s u s m o n o p o l i a l a m i a h , j i k a d i s e r a h k a n k e p a d a s e k t o r s w a s t a , h a r g a y a n g d i h a s i l k a n a k a n c e n d e r a n g l e b i h t i n g g i d a n k w a n t i t a s b a r a n g d a n j a s a y a n g d i h s i l k a n c e n d e r u n g l e b i h k e c i l . I n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h a k a n m e m u n g k i n k a n h a r g a d i t e k a n p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g s a m a d e n g a n b i a y a r a t a - r a t a j a n g k a p a n j a n g d a n k u a n t i t a s n y a j e l a s a k a n l e b i h b e s a r . P e n g g u n a a n i n p u t d a r i i n d u s t r i i n i j e l a s a k a n m e n u r u n k a n b i a y a p r o d u k s i d a n s e k a l i g u s m e n i n g k a t k a n t i n g k a t k e u n t u n g a n . D a l a m k o n d i s i p a s a r y a n g b i a s a , p e n d i r i a n s u a t u p a b r i k b a m j u g a a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n p e r m i n t a a n u n t u k b a r a n g y a n g b e r k a i t a n d a n m e n i n g k a t k a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . K a d a n g k a l a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a p a t b e r t i n d a k s e b a g a i " A g e n k a t a l i s " d e n g a n m e n u r u n k a n s e c a r a d r a m a t i s b i a y a - b i a y a p r o d u k s i . I n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m r i s e t - r i s e t p e r t a n i a n , p e m b i b i t a n d a n p e s e m a i a n b i b i t p e r t a n i a n a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . P e m e r i n t a h d a p a t j u g a m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a m e l a l u i k e b i j a k a n m a k r o e k o n o m i b a i k m e l a l u i k e b i j a k a n f i s k a l m a u p u n r e g u l a s i . I n s t m m e n p e r p a j a k a n m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u i n s t m m e n y a n g p a l i n g s e r i n g
d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s f g ^ q s w a s t a : K e b i j a k a n r e g u l a s i s e p e r t i inegative list policy y a n g m e r u p a k a i | ^ d a f t a r y a n g m e m u a t s e k t o r y a n g d i l a r a n g u n t u k m e l a k u k a n i n v e s t a s i j e l a s a k a n m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . S t u d i e m p i r i s t e r h a d a p j i e n g a r u h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a n s w a s t a m e n u n j u k a n h a s i l y a n g b e r b e d a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a p e r i o d e p e n e l i t i a n , n e g a r a y a n g d i t e l i t i . S t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h S u n d a r a r a j a n d a n T h a k u r ( 1 9 8 0 ) y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l g a b u n g a n n e o k l a s i k d a n accelerator theory m e n e m u k a n h a s i l y a n g b e r b e d a d i d u a n e g a r a y a n g d i t e l i t i . D i I n d i a p e n g a r u h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h t e r h a d a p p e m b e n t u k a n m o d a l t e t a p s w a s t a s a n g a t k e c i l k h u s u s n y a d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g . H a l i n i m e m b e r i k a n i n d i k a s i h a s i l y a n g p o s i t i f d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k t e l a h h i l a n g s e b a g a i d a m p a k d a r i crowding-out d a r i i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . H a l l a i n y a n g d i d u g a m e n j a d i p e n y e b a h h a l t e r s e b u t t e r j a d i a d a l a h I C O R d a r i s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h d i I n d i a s a n g a t t i n g g i d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n s e k t o r s w a s t a . D i p i h a k l a i n , S u n d a r r a j a n d a n T h a k u r m e n e m u k a n b a h w a d i K o r e a b a i k d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k d a n p a n j a n g i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k y a n g p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r s w a s t a . S t u d i l a i n y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h B l e j e r d a n K h a n {\9S4) d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l accelerator y a n g m e m u n g k i n k a n k e b i j a k a n p e m e r i n t a h u n t u k m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a m e l a l u i k e c e p a t a n p e n y e s u a i a n u n t u k m e n c a p a i s t o k m o d a l y a n g d i i n g i n k a n m e l a l u i m e k a n i s m e p e n y e s u a i a n p a r s i a l . h a s i l p e n g u j i a n e m p i r i s m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k e n a i k a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s e c a r a r i i l c e n d e r u n g a k a n m e n u r u n k a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k , t e t a p i t i d a k m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g . S e b a l i k n y a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m p e m b a n g u n a n i n f r a s t r u k t u r m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k y a n g p(3sitif (crowding-in) t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h j u g a d i t e m u k a n o l e h S c h m i d t - H e b b e l d a n M u l l e r (1991) u n t u k k a s u s M a r o c c o , w a l a u p u n d a m p a k n y a r e l a t i f k e c i l . H a s i l s t u d i l a i n y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h W a i d a n W o n g ( 1 9 8 2 ) m e n u n j u k k a n h a s i l y a n g inconclusive k e c u a l i u n t u k Y u n a n i . M e n g g u n a k a n p e r s a m a a n l i n e a r y a n g d i d e r i v a s i k a n d a r i m o d e l accelerator W a i d a n W o n g ( 1 9 8 2 ) m e n e m u k a n b a h w a d i Y u n a n i , i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e m p u n y a i d a m p a k y a n g p o s i t i f , t e t a p i u n t u k n e g a r a - n e g a r a l a i n s e p e r t i M a l a y s i a , K o r e a , M e x i c o d a n T h a i l a n d v a r i a b e l i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n b e r b e d a d e n g a n n o l p a d a u k u r a n p e n g u j i a n y a n g k o n v e n s i o n a l . G r e e n e e d a n V i l l a n e u v a (1991) d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n p e r s a m a a n l i n e a r d a n r a s i o i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a t e r h a d a p P D B s e b a g a i v a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n m e n e m u k a n b a h w a d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 7 5 - 1 9 8 7 i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k crowding-in b a g i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d i 2 3 n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g . m e r e k a j u g a
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t a h m e m b a g i p e r i o d e s a m p e l m e n j a d i d u a y a i t u p r e - k r i s i s h u t a n g d a n k r i s i s h u t a n g , d i m a n a d i t e m u k a n p e n g a r u h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n s e l a m a p e r i o d e h u t a n g . C o n w a y ( 1 9 8 9 ) d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l s t r u k t u r a l d e n g a n a s u m s i p e r u s a h a a n m e l a k u k a n k e p u t u s a n o p t i m i s a s i b e r d a s a r k a n h i p o t e s i s rational expectation ( r a t e x ) d a n m e n g g u n a k a n f u n g s i C o b b D o u g l a s s d a l a m p r o s e s p r o d u k s i m e n e m u k a n b a h w a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d i T u r k i d a l a m i n f r a s t r u k t u r m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . C o n w a y { 1 9 9 0 ) d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n t e k n i k Vector Auto Regresive ( V A R ) , i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h T u r k i h a n y a m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k Crowding-in d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k t e t a p i d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g d a m p a k i n i t e l a h t e r e l i m i n a s i o l e h d a m p a k crowding-out y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h . M a s i h u n t u k k a s u s T u r k i , d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l K e y n e s i a n , A n a n d , C h i b b e r d a n V a n W i j n b e r g e r ( 1 9 9 0 ) m e n e m u k a n b a h w a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e m p u n y a i d a m p a k y a n g k e c i l t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . S h a f i k ( 1 9 9 0 ) d e n g a n m e n g g a b u n g k a n microfoundation d a n m a k r o e k o n o m i d a r i f u n g s i i n v e s t a s i d a n m e n g g u n a k a n b e b e r a p a t e h n i k p e n g u j i a n error-correction approach, m e n e m u k a n b a h w a u n t u k b e b e r a p a p e r s a m a a n y a n g d i r e s t r i k s i , i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d i M e s i r m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g p o s i t i f , t e t a p i u n t u k p e r s a m a a n y a n g t i d a k d i r e s t r i k s i v a r i a b e l i n i t i d a k s e c a r a s i g n i f i k a n b e r b e d a d e n g a n n o l . S t u d i e m p i r i s i n i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n n y a v a r i a b e l i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a t e r d a p a t k o m p o n e n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h y a n g b e r d a m p a k crowding-out d a n crowding-in y a n g m e m p u n y a i k e k u a t a n y a n g s a m a . P e m i l i h a n j e n i s i n v e s t a s i a m a t m e n e n t u k a n d a m p a k d a r i i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h . I n v e s t a s i d a l a m i n f r a s t r u k t u r u m u m n y a m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k y a n g p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . B . M o d e l M o d e l o p t i m i s a s i n e o k l a s i k t i d a k s e p e n u h n y a d a p a t d i a p l i k a s i k a n u n t u k k a s u s n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d a n I n d o n e s i a k a r e n a a d a n y a d i s t o r s i - d i s t o r s i , b a i k y a n g b e r s i f a t k e l e m b a g a a n m a u p u n s t r u k t u r a l , m e s k i p u n s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 3 b e r b a g a i d i s t o r s i t e r s e b u t t e l a h d i c o b a u n t u k d i h i l a n g k a n . M o d e l y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n d i s i n i m e r u p a k a n p e n g e m b a n g a n l e b i h l a n j u t d a r i model flexible accelator M o d e l i n i d i k e m b a n g k a n p e r t a m a k a l i u n t u k n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g o l e h S u n d a r a r a j a n d a n T h a k u r ( 1 9 8 0 ) , k e m u d i a n d i k e m b a n g k a n l a g i o l e h B l e j e r d a n K h a n ( 1 9 8 4 ) . U n t u k k a s u s I n d o n e s i a , a k a n d i l a k u k a n b e b e r a p a p e n y e s u a i a n y a i t u m e m a s u k k a n v a r i a b e l n i l a i t u k a r e f e k t i f r i i l k e d a l a m m o d e l , d a n m e n y e m p u r n a k a n m o d e l
y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h B l e j e r d a l a m m e n g e s t i m a s i n i l a i i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m i n f r a s t r u k t u r . D a r i p a d a m e n g g u n a k a n n i l a i t r e n d d a r i i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h s e b a g a i p r o k s i i n v e s t a s i d a l a m i n f r a s t r u k t u r , a k a n l e b i h b a i k j i k a d i g u n a k a n d a t a a k t u a l d a r i i n v e s t a s i d a r i i n f r a s t r u k t u r i t u s e n d i r i . T e k n o l o g i p r o d u k s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m m o d e l i n i d i a s u m s i k a n a d a l a h fixed proportion u n t u k i n p u t . P e m i l i h a n t e k n o l o g i i n i a d a l a h u n t u k m e n g h i n d a r i k e h a r u s a n u n t u k m e m a s u k k a n h a r g a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a l a m m o d e l . B e r d a s a r k a n m o d e l accelerator, d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g , s t o k k a p i t a l y a n g d i i n g i n k a n {desired capital stock) d a p a t d i a s u m s i k a n p r o p o r s i o n a l t e r h a d a p o u t p u t s a s a r a n (target output) a t a u , KP, ' art ( 1 ) d i m a n a K P a d a l a h s t o c k k a p i t a l y a n g d i i n g i n k a n , o u t p u t s a s a r a n d a n a p a r a m e t e r y a n g d i a s u m s i k a n k o n s t a n . T e r d a p a t k e s e n j a n g a n (lag) a n t a r a i n v e s t a s i a k t u a l d e n g a n y a n g d i h a r a p k a n p a d a w a k t u t e r t e n t u , k a r e n a d i b u t u h k a n w a k t u u n t u k m e r e n c a n a d a n m e m b a n g u n , s e h i n g g a d i s i n i d a p a t d i g u n a k a n m e k a n i s m e p e n y e s u a i a n p a r s i a l (partial adjustment meclianism) u n t u k s t o k k a p i t a l , d i m a n a s t o k m o d a l a k t u a l d i a s u m s i k a n m e n y e s u a i k a n b e r d a s a r k a n p e r b e d a a n s t o k k a p i t a l y a n g d i i n g i n k a n p a d a p e r i o d e t d e n g a n s t o k k a p i t a l a k t u a l p a d a p e r i o d e s e b e l u m n y a a t a u , d K P = P ( K P , - K P , - i ) ( 2 ) a t a u K P , = p K P * + ( 1 - P ) K P t - i ( 2 a ) d i m a n a K P a d a l a h s t o k m o d a l s w a s t a , s e h i n g g a d K P a d a l a h i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a n e t t o , d a n p a d a l a h k o e f i s i e n p e n y e s u a i , 0 < p < 1 . P e r s a m a a n 2 d a n 2 a d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m net i nvestment, s e m e n t a r a d a t a y a n g t e r s e d i a a d a l a h d a l a m b e n t u k g r o s s ( b r u t o ) t e r m a s u k d e p r e s i a s i . S e h i n g g a p e r s a m a a n 2 h a r u s d i t r a n s f o r m a s i k a n k e d a l a m gross investment y a n g m e m u n g k i n k a n d e r i v a s i p e r s a m a a n i n i d i e s t i m a s i . I n v e s t a s i s w a s t a b r u t o d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a g a i i n v e s t a s i n e t t o d i t a m b a h d e n g a n d e p r e s i a s i d a r i s t o k m o d e l p e r i o d e s e b e l u m n y a , a t a u , I P , = K P t + e K P t . i ( 3 )
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t a h d i m a n a I P a d a l a h i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a b r u t o , 9 t i n g k a t d e p r e s i a s i . P e r s a m a a n i n i a k a n l e b i h r i n g k a s b i l a d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m b e n t u k lag-operator a t a u , , I P , = l - ( 1 - 8 ) L (41 s e h i n g g a K P , = ! ? , / [ e ) L ] ( 5 | s u b s t i t u s i K P t d a n K p t - i d a l a m p e r s a m a a n 2 a m e n g h a s i l k a n , i p , / [ i - ( i - e ) L ] = p K * , + ( 1 - p ) { i p , . i / [ i - ( i - e ) L ] m sehingga ! ? , = [ 1 - ( l - e ) L ] p K * , + ( 1 - p ) I P , - i (7) J i k a v a r i a b e l K * d a r i p e r s a m a a n d i s u b s t i t u s i k a n d a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) m e n j a d i p e r s a m a a n ( 7 ) . a k a n d i h a s i l k a n p e r s a m a a n dynamic accelerator d e n g a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a b r u t o s e b a g a i v a r i a b e l t e r i k a t y a i t u : I P , = p a [ l - ( l - e ) L ] Y R f + ( 1 - P ) I P , (8) B e r l a i n a n d e n g a n m o d e l o p t i m i s a s i t r a d i s i o n a l n e o k l a s i k , C o e n ( 1 9 7 1 ) m e m p e r k e n a l k a n p e n d e k a t a n l a i n d a l a m m e n y e l e s a i k a n p e r s a m a a n ( 7 ) . . u n t u k m e n c a p a i t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i y a n g d i i n g i n k a n , i n v e s t o r a k a n b e r e a k s i t e r h a d a p k e s e n j a n g a n a n t a r a t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i y a n g d i i n g i n k a n d a n a k t u a l d a p a t d i u k u r b e r d a s a r k a n n i l a i k o e f i s i e n P K o e f i s i e n p s e n d i r i m e r u p a k a n f u n g s i d a r i : a. K o n d i s i p a s a r b . M a s a i a h p e m b i a y a a n b a i k k e t e r s e d i a a n n y a a t a u h a r g a n y a . c. T i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h V a r i a b e l k o n d i s i p a s a r d i p i l i h d e n g a n a r g u m e n b a h w a r e a k s i i n v e s t o r d a l a m m e n g i s i k e s e n j a n g a n t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i y a n g d i i n g i n k a n d e n g a n a k t u a l n y a a k a n t e r g a n t u n g p a d a k o n d i s i pasar. D e n g a n m e n g a s u m s i k a n t r e n d P r o d u k D o m e s t i k B r u t o s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r k a p a s i t a s p e r e k o n o m i a n , j i k a P D B a k t u a l l e b i h b e s a r d a r i k a p a s i t a s p e r e k o n o m i a n , r e a k s i i n v e s t o r s w a s t a a k a n l e b i h l a m b a t . D a n s e b a l i k n y a , j i k a P D B a k t u a l l e b i h b e s a r d a r i k a p a s i t a s p e r e k o n o m i a n , i n v e s t o r a k a n b e r e a k s i l e b i h c e p a t d a l a m m e n g i s i k e s e n j a n g a n a n t a r a i n v e s t a s i y a n g d i i n g i n k a n d a n a k t u a l . D a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n t e r b u k a , k o n d L s i p a s a r j u g a d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h n i l a i t u k a r r e l a t i f . T e r d a p a t d u a a l i r a n p e m i k i r a n y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n m a s a i a h p e m b i a y a a n . M c K i n n o n d a n p e n g i k u t n y a d a r i a l i r a n n y a b e r p e n d a p a t
b a h w a d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g m a s a i a h p e m b i a y a a n b u k a n m u n c u l k a r e n a t i n g g i n y a b i a y a m o d a l ( t i n g k a t b u n g a ) t e t a p i l e b i h d i s e b a b k a n k e t e r s e d i a a n d a n a d i p a s a r u a n g . G a m b a r 1 m e n j e l a s k a n f e n o m e n a i n i . S a m p a i t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i l e , t i n g k a t b u n g a t i d a k m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i , m a l a h s e c a r a i m p l i s i t m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f d e n g a n t i n g k a t b u n g a . t e t a p i j i k a p e r e k o n o m i a n t e l a h m e n c a p a i t i n g k a t b u n g a k e s e i m b a n g a n a t a u m e k a n i s m e p a s a r t e l a h b e r j a l a n d e n g a n b a i k , b a r u l a h t i n g k a t b u n g a b e r p e r a n d a l a m m e m b e r i k a n s i n y a l t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i . F e n o m e n a i n i m u n c u l k a r e n a d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g , p e m e r i n t a h m e n e t a p k a n b e s a m y a t i n g k a t b u n g a d i b a w a h t i n g k a t b u n g a p a s a r u n t u k b e r b a g a i t u j u a n , t e r u t a m a d a l a m p e n g e n d a l i a n a g g r e g a t m o n e t e r . D i p i h a k l a i n , m e n g i k u t i p e m i k i r a n K e y n e s i a n , t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i d i a n g g a p m e r u p a k a n f u n g s i n e g a t i f d a r i t i n g k a t b u n g a . S e m a k i n t i n g g i t i n g k a t b u n g a s e m a k i n k e c i l p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i d a n s e b a l i k n y a s e m a k i n r e n d a h t i n g k a t b u n g a s e m a k i n b e s a r p u l a p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i . D a l a m m o d e l i n i k e d u a a l i r a n a k a n d i u j i k e b e n a r a n n y a . M o d e l M c K i n n o n t a m p a k n y a r e l e v a n u n t u k d i t e r a p k a n u n t u k k a s u s s e b e l u m d e r e g u l a s i 1 9 8 3 . T e t a p i p e n y a l u r a n k r e d i t l i k u i d i t a s o l e h o l e h b a n k p e m e r i n t a h h i n g g a t a h u n 1 9 8 9 m e n y e b a b k a n f e n o m e n a i n i m a s i h r e l e v a n d i u j i u n t u k k a s u s I n d o n e s i a d a n s e c a r a t i d a k l a n g s u n g a k a n d a p a t d i p e r k i r a k a n b a g a i m a n a d a m p a k d a r i k e b i j a k a n p e n g u r a n g a n k r e d i t l i k u i d i t a s t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d i I n d o n e s i a . S e m e n t a r a d i p i h a k l a i n , p e r a n a n b a n k p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m m e m b e r i k a n k r e d i t m a k i n m e n u r u n ( d a n s e c a r a o t o m a t i s m e n g u r a n g i p e r a n a n k r e d i t l i k u i d i t a s ) a k a n m e n d o r o n g m a k i n p e n t i n g n y a v a r i a b e l t i n g k a t b u n g a d a l a m m e m p e n g a r u h i b e s a m y a i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d i I n d o n e s i a . V a r i a b e l k e t i g a m e r u p a k a n b a g i a n y a n g p a l i n g p e n t i n g d a n m e r u p a k a n t u j u a n u t a m a d a r i t u l i s a n i n i , y a i t u u n t u k m e n g u j i a p a k a h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a n s w a s t a m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n k o m p o n e n a t a u s u b s t i t u s i . S e p e r t i y a n g d i j e l a s k a n d a l a m b a g i a n s e b e l u m n y a , i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h m e n d u a t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h y a n g m e m p u n y a i e f e k n e g a t i f (crowding-out) t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a , b a i k y a n g d i s e b a b k a n o l e h s i f a t k o m p o t i s i n y a m a u p u n p e m b i a y a a n n y a . T e t a p i d i p i h a k l a i n a d a b a g i a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h y a n g j u s t r u a k a n m e m p e r k u a t m i n a t i n v e s t o r s w a s t a u n t u k m e l a k u k a n k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i a t a u d a p a t m e n i n g k a t k a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s f a k t o r p r o d u k s i y a n g p a d a g i l i r a n n y a a k a n m e n g u r a n g i k e b u t u h a n i n v e s t a s i p e r o u t p u t . S e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n p e n g a r u h i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h a k a n t e r g a n t u n g p a d a k e k u a t a n d a r i v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l d i atas. J i k a v a r i a b e l y a n g b e r s i f a t
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t a h m e n d o r o n g t e r j a d i n y a crowding-out l e b i h k u a t d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n y a n g k o m p l o m e n t e r , p e n g a r u h n y a t e n t u n y a a d a l a h n e g a t i f . D a n s e b a l i k n y a j i k a y a n g b e r s i f a t m e n d o r o n g crowding-in l e b i h k u a t , s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n a k a n t e r l i h a t b a h w a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h c e n d e r u n g m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h k o m p l e m e n t e r t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n p e r l u d i k e m b a n g k a n m o d e l y a n g d a p a t m e m i s a h k a n a n t a r a i n v e s t a s i y a n g c e n d e r u n g b e r s i f a t k o m p l e m e n t e r d e n g a n y a n g b e r s i f a t s u b s t i t u s i . B e r d a s a r k a n a r g u m e n d i a t a s , k o e f i s i e n p e n y e s u a i a n P y a n g d i s p e s i f i k a s i k a n s e b a g a i f u n g s i d a r i k e t i g a f a k t o r d i a t a s d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n s e b a g a i , 6 = bO + —-^ X ( b l G A P s u b t + b2 d D C R , + b 3 R E R , + b 4 G I , ) ( I , * - I , ) ( 9 ) a t a u , P , = cO + , ^ X ( c l G A P , + c2 d D C R , + c3 R E R , + c4 G I , ) (It - I , ) ( 9 a ) d i m a n a , G A P = f a k t o r - f a k t o r s i k l i s y a n g d i d a p a t k a n s e b a g a i p e r b e d a a n a n t a r a o u t p u t t r e n d d a n a k t u a l . d D C R = p e r u b a h a n d a l a m k r e d i t r i i l k e p a d a s e k t o r s w a s t a R E R = n i l a i t u k a r e f e k t i f r i i l 0 1 = i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h D R = t i n g k a t b u n g a d e p o s i t o s e b a g a i p r o k s i t i n g k a t b u n g a p i n j a m a n . J a d i m a s a i a h crowding-out a k a n d i t a n g k a p m e l a l u i k o e f i s i e n p e n y e s u a i a n d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n m e n g e s t i m a s i k a n s e c a r a l a n g s u n g d a l a m p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) . P e r s a m a a n 9 d a n 9 a m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a k e t a n g g a p a n d a r i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a b e s a r a n e m p a t v a r i a b e l d i a t a s , d i m a n a p e n g a r u h n y a s e c a r a r e l a t i f t e r g a n t u n g p a d a b e s a r d a r i p e r b e d a a n a n t a r a i n v e s t a s i y a n g d i i n g i n k a n d a n a k t u a l . T a n d a d a r i p a r a m e t e r d a l a m p e r s a m a a n d i a t a s a d a l a h b l , c l , b 4 , c 4 d a p a t p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f , s e m e n t a r a b 2 , b 3 , d a n c 3 a d a l a h p o s i t i f serta c 2 a d a l a h n e g a t i f . D e n g a n m e n s u b t i t u s i k a n p e r s a m a a n ( 9 ) d a n ( 9 a ) k e d a l a m p e r s a m a a n ( 8 ) m e n g h a s i l k a n : ^ I P , = b O a [ l - ( l - e ) L ] Y R , * + b l G A P , + b 2 d D C R , + b 3 R E R ,
+ b 4 G I , - ( 1 - b O ) I P t - 1 ( 1 0 ) a t a u I P , = c O a [ l - ( l - 0 L ] Y R , * + c l G A P , + c 2 d D C R , + c3 R E R , + c 4 G I , + ( 1 - c O ) I P , - i ( 1 0 a ) J i k a k i t a m e n g a n g g a p b a h w a k o e f i s i e n p e n y e s u a i . p t i d a k h a n y a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a b e s a r n y a i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h ( G I ) , t e t a p i j u g a p e r u b a h a n n i l a i i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h ( d G l ) , d i m a n a s e p e r t i p a d a p e r s a m a a n l a i n n y a , n i l a i p a r a m e t e r i n i d a p a t p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , p e r s a m a a n 1 0 d a n 1 0 a d a p a t d i t u l i s s e b a g a i : I P , = bOa [ 1 - ( 1 - 8 ) L ] Y R f + b l G A P , + 5 2 d D C R , + b 3 R E R , + b 4 G I , + b S d G I , + ( 1 - b O ) I P , - i ( 1 1 ) a t a u I P , = c O a [ 1 - ( 1 - 8 ) L ] Y R f + c l G A P , + c 2 d D C R , + c 3 R E R , + c 4 G I , + c 5 d G I , + ( 1 - c O ) l P , - 1 ( 1 1 a ) D a l a m m e n g e s t i m a s i p e r s a m a a n d i atas, k i t a d a p a t m e m p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a k o e f i s i e n y a n g m e n g u k u r accelerator, b O a , a d a l a h p o s i t i f d a n k o e f i s i e n j a n g k a p a n j a n g , a a k a n m e n d e k a t i 1 . H a s i l i n i d i b u t u h k a n u n t u k m e n d a p a t k a n n i l a i I C O R y a n g k o n s t a n d a l a m k e a d a a n steady-state. P e n g a r u h d a r i k e b i j a k a n p e m e r i n t a h t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d a p a t d i p e r o l e h d a r i n i l a i e s t i m a s i k o e f i s i e n 5 2 ( j i k a v o l u m e k r e d i t d i g u n a k a n s e b a g a i v a r i a b e l b e s a r ) , 5 3 d a n 5 4 . K e n a i k a n v o l u m e k r e d i t d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a , s e m e n t a r a p e n g a r u h d a r i i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d i h i p o t e s i s k a n d a p a t p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f . K o m p o n e n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h m e n g a n d u n g u n s u r y a n g b e r s i f a t s u b s t i t u s i a t a u k o m p l o m e n t e r t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a s e h i n g g a a k a n m e n i m b u l k a n d a m p a k s a l i n g m e n g h i l a n g k a n . A k a n l e b i h b e r m a n f a a t j i k a m o d e l i n i m e n g g u n a k a n s a l a h s a t u u n s u r s u b s t i t u s i a t a u k o m p l e m e n t e r saja. D i a n t a r a u n s u r y a n g b e r s i f a t k o m p l e m e n t e r a d a l a h i n f r a s t r u k t u r . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a l a m p e r s a m a a n 1 0 d a n 1 0 a , v a r i a b e l G I d a p a t d i g a n t i d e n g a n i n v e s t a s i p e m e r i n t a h d a l a m i n f r a s t r u k t u r ( G i l ) . T e t a p i , i n v e s t a s i d a l a m i n f r a s t r u k t u r m e m p u n y a i t e n g g a n g w a k t u y a n g c u k u p l a m a h i n g g a m e m b e r i k a n d a m p a k t e r h a d a p o u t p u t . D a l a m m o d e l i n i d i g u n a k a n lag 1 t a h u n . ( l i h a t g a m b a r 6 ) D a r i p e r s a m a a n 1 0 h i n g g a 11a, v a r i a b e l y a n g b e l u m d a p a t d i e s t i m a s i
I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a d a n P e m e r i n t a h
a d a l a h expected output ( Y R ^ ) . B e r b a g a i a l t e r n a t i f d a p a t d i l a k u k a n u n t u k m e n d a p a t k a n n i l a i v a r i a b e l t e r s e b u t a n t a r a l a i n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n distributed lag m o d e l a t a u d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n adaptive expectation. D e n g a n k e t e r b a t a s a n d a t a , a l t e r n a t i f k e d u a l e b i h d a p a t d i g u n a k a n d a l a m k a s u s i n i , d i m a n a o u t p u t y a n g d i h a r a p k a n a k a n m e n y e s u a i k a n b e r d a s a r k a n k e s a l a h a n {error) a n t a r a o u t p u t a k t u a l d a n o u t p u t y a n g d i h a r a p k a n d a l a m p e r i o d e s e b e l u m n y a : d Y R f = T [ Y R , - 1 - ( 1 + g ) Y R V i ] ( 1 2 ) d i m a n a , x a d a l a h k o e f i s i e n e k s p e k t a s i , 0 < T < 1 , d a n g a d a l a h l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n d a r i o u t p u t r i i l . D e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n n o t a s i lag operator, p e r s a m a a n 1 2 d a p a t d i t u l i s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : | Y R f = x Y R , - s u b l / [ 1 - ( 1 - i ) ( 1 + g ) L ] ( 1 3 ) D e n g a n m e n s u b s t i t u s i k a n ( 1 3 ) k e ( 1 0 ) , ( 1 0 a , ( 1 1 ) , ( 1 1 a ) , k i t a m e n d a p a t k a n s u a t u p e r s a m a a n reduced form y a n g d i n a m i s u n t u k i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a b r u t o y a n g m e n c a k u p v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l s i k l i s , p e m b i a y a a n d a n i n v e s t a s i s e k t o r p c m e r i n t a h s e c a r a r i i l s e b a g a i v a r i a b e l b e b a s : I P , [ 1 - ( 1 - t ) ( l + g ) L ] = bOa Y R , _ i 4 [ ( l - e ) Y R , - 2 ] + [ 1 - ( 1 - t ) ( 1 + g ) L ] X [ b l G A P , + b 2 d D C R , + b 3 R E R , + b 4 G I , - ( 1 - b O ) I P , - i ] ( 1 4 ) I P , [ 1 - ( 1 - t ) ( 1 + g ) L ] I = cOa Y R , - 1 - e ) Y R , - 2 ] + [ 1 - ( 1 - t ) ( 1 + g ) L ] X [ c l G A P , , + c2 d D C R , + c3 R E R , + c4 G I , - ( I - cO ) I P , - i ] ( 1 5 ) I P , [ l - ( I - t ) ( I + g ) L ] = bOa Y R , - 1 - I [ ( I - 8 ) Y R , _ 2 ] + [ 1 - ( 1 - t ) ( I + g ) L ] X \ b I G A P , + b2 d D C R , + b3 R E R , + b4 G I t + b.5 d G I , + ( I - bO) I P , - 1 (16) I P , [ I - ( I - t ) ( I + g ) L ] = cOa Y R , - 1 - 1 [ ( 1 - 8 ) Y R , - 2 ] + [ I - ( 1 - t ) ( I + g ) L ] X [ c I G A P , + c2 d D C R , + c3 R E R , + c4 G i t + c5 d G I , + ( 1 - cO) I P , - 1 ] (17) I P , [ I - ( 1 - t ) ( 1 + g ) L ] = bOa Y R , - i - I [ ( I - 8 ) Y R , - 2 ] + [ 1 - ( 1 - t ) ( 1 + g ) L j X [ b I G A P , + b 2 d D C R , + b 3 R E R , + b 4 G i l , - 1 + ( 1 - b O ) I P , - 1 ] ( 1 8 ) I P , [ l - ( I - l ) ( l + g ) L ] = bOa Y R , - 1 - 1 [ ( I - 8 ) Y R , - 2 ] + [ 1 - ( 1 - t ) ( 1 + g ) L ] X [ c I G A P , + c2 d D C R , + c3 R E R , + c4 G I I , - 1 + ( I - c O ) I P , - 1 ] ( 1 9 )
IV. Kajian Empiris
P e r s a m a a n ( 1 4 ) - ( 1 9 ) t i d a k d a p a t d i e s t i m a s i d e n g a n m e t o d a P E S k a r e n a p a r a m e t e r - p a r a m e t e r n y a (j gdan p ) t i d a k l i n e a r . M e t o d e r e s t r i k s i d i l a k u k a n u n t u k m e n g e s t i m a s i m o d e l d i atas. U n t u k k o e f i s i e n a d a p t a s i , j d i l a k u k a n m e t o d e trial and error u n t u k n i l a i x y a n g m e n g h a s i l k a n n i l a i maximum likelihood dengan range 0-1 dan i n t e r v a l 0 , 1 . H a s i l e s t i m a s i u n t u k s e m u a p e r s a m a a n d i a t a s m e n u n j u k k a n n i l a i maximum likelihood y a n g t e r b e s a r d i d a p a t k a n k e t i k a x a d a l a h 0 . 9 . N i l a i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n o u t p u t d a p a t d i p e r o l e h d e n g a n m u d a h y a i t u d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n P r o d u k D o m e s t i k B r u t o t a h u n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n . K a r e n a d a t a t e n t a n g n i l a i d e p r e s i a s i m o d e l s u k a r d i p e r o l e h , m a k a d a l a m m o d e l i n i d i a s u m s i k a n b a h w a t i n g k a t d e p r e s i a s i , p a d a l a h s e b e s a r 5 p e r s e n . D e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n n i l a i - n i l a i p a r a m e t e r d i atas, m a k a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 4 ) - ( 1 9 ) d a p a t d i e s t i m a s i d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m e t o d e O L S . T a b e l 5 m e n u n j u k k a n h a s i l e s t i m a s i p e r s a m a a n ( 1 4 ) - ( 1 9 ) . S e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n , h a s i l e s t i m a s i p e r s a m a a n - p e r s a m a a n t e r s e b u t c u k u p m e m u a s k a n , d a l a m p e n g e r t i a n s e m u a v a r i a b e l d a l a m p e r s a m a a n -p e r s a m a a n d i a t a s m e n u n j u k k a n a r a h y a n g s e s u a i d e n g a n h a r a -p a n . M e s k i p u n d e m i k i a n h a n y a p e r s a m a a n y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a s e b a g a i v a r i a b e l y a n g m e n j e l a s k a n k o n d i s i p a s a r u a n g y a n g m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l d i m a n a n i l a i p a r a m e t e r a ( y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n r e s p o n j a n g k a p a n j a n g d a r i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n o u t p u t ) m e n d e k a t i s a t u y a n g s e s u a i d e n g a n y a n g d i h a r a p k a n . D a l a m k o n d i s i steady-state, n i l a i I C O R a d a l a h k o n s t a n . S e m e n t a r a p e r s a m a a n y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n v a r i a b e l v o l u m e k r e d i t , b a i k n o m i n a l m a u p u n r i i l , m e n g h a s i l k a n p a r a m e t e r a y a n g b e r b e d a - b e d a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a j e n i s p e r s a m a a n , d e n g a n n i l a i b e r k i s a r s e k i t a r 0 , 6 . K e l e m a h a n k e d u a d a r i m o d e l y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n v a r i a b e l k r e d i t riil, h a m p i r s e m u a v a r i a b e l b e b a s t i d a k s e c a r a s i g n i f i k a n b e r b e d a d e n g a n n o l , p a d a d e r a j a t k e b e b a s a n 1 0 p e r s e n s e k a l i p u n . P e n y e b a b t e r j a d i n y a h a l i n i a d a l a h a d a n y a multi-colinearity a n t a r a v a r i a b e l k r e d i t riil d e n g a n d e n g a n v a r i a b e l s i k l i s p e r e k o n o m i a n ( G A P ) . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n p e n j e l a s a n l e b i h l a n j u t a k a n d i f o k u s k a n p e r s a m a a n ( 1 5 ) , ( 1 7 ) d a n ( 1 9 ) . K o e f i s i e n v a r i a b e l output y a n g d i h a r a p k a n ( Y R ^ ) p a d a s e m u a p e r s a m a a n s i g n i f i k a n s e c a r a s t a t i s t i k d a l a m m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a d i I n d o n e s i a , d a n m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k o e f i s i e n short-run accelerator c e n d e r u n g s a m a u n t u k s e m u a s p e s i f i k a s i m o d e l . K o e f i s i e n p a d a lag i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a ( P I t - i ) s e b e s a r 0 . 7 8 - . 9 0 m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a w a k t u r a t a t e n g g a n g w a k t u (/ag) d a l a m p e n y e s u a i a n i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a t e r h a d a p v a r i a s i oiitpui - y a n g d i h i t u n g s e b a g a i ( l - b O ) / b O ) a d a l a h 4 t a h u n . E s t i m a s i u n t u k v a r i a b e l s i k l i s t e r h a d a p i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a a d a l a h l e m a h
