Lampiran 1. Nilai Masing-Masing Variabel Penelitian
Negara Tahun
POPi
POPj
REER
DIST
PDBj
EXPV
PDBi
D
1Amerika
2001
216.203.499
284.968.955
114
16.378 10.233.900.000.000
282.000.000
160.446.947.638
0
Serikat
2002
219.026.365
287.625.193
114
16.378 10.590.200.000.000
387.000.000
195.660.611.034
1
2003
221.839.235
290.107.933
106
16.378 11.089.300.000.000
520.000.000
234.772.458.818
1
2004
224.606.531
292.805.298
101
16.378 11.797.800.000.000
685.000.000
256.836.883.305
1
2005
227.303.175
295.516.599
100
16.378 12.564.300.000.000
804.000.000
285.868.610.017
1
2006
229.918.547
298.379.912
99
16.378 13.314.500.000.000 1.040.000.000
364.570.525.997
1
2007
232.461.746
301.231.207
95
16.378 13.961.800.000.000 1.220.000.000
432.216.737.775
1
2008
234.951.154
304.093.966
91
16.378 14.219.300.000.000 1.550.000.000
510.244.548.960
1
2009
237.414.495
306.771.529
95
16.378 13.863.600.000.000
613.000.000
539.579.959.053
1
2010
239.870.937
309.349.689
91
16.378 14.447.100.000.000 1.570.000.000
708.026.840.495
1
Jepang
2001
216.203.499
127.149.000
112
5.747
4.159.859.918.094
83.300.000
160.446.947.638
0
2002
219.026.365
127.445.000
105
5.747
3.980.819.536.160
137.000.000
195.660.611.034
1
2003
221.839.235
127.718.000
106
5.747
4.302.939.184.964
189.000.000
234.772.458.818
1
2004
224.606.531
127.761.000
107
5.747
4.655.803.055.651
220.000.000
256.836.883.305
1
2005
227.303.175
127.773.000
100
5.747
4.571.875.737.175
216.000.000
285.868.610.017
1
2006
229.918.547
127.756.000
91
5.747
4.356.761.451.087
525.000.000
364.570.525.997
1
2007
232.461.746
127.770.750
83
5.747
4.356.329.296.669
659.000.000
432.216.737.775
1
2008
234.951.154
127.704.040
90
5.747
4.849.208.099.924
974.000.000
510.244.548.960
1
2009
237.414.495
127.557.958
102
5.747
5.035.141.567.659
444.000.000
539.579.959.053
1
2010
239.870.937
127.450.459
103
5.747
5.488.416.495.785
954.000.000
708.026.840.495
1
2006
229.918.547 1.311.020.000
102
4.692
2.712.950.886.698
546.000.000
364.570.525.997
1
2007
232.461.746 1.317.885.000
106
4.692
3.494.055.944.791
610.000.000
432.216.737.775
1
2008
234.951.154 1.324.655.000
115
4.692
4.521.827.288.304
813.000.000
510.244.548.960
1
2009
237.414.495 1.331.380.000
119
4.692
4.991.256.406.735
657.000.000
539.579.959.053
1
2010
239.870.937 1.337.825.000
119
4.692
5.930.529.470.799 1.270.000.000
708.026.840.495
1
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
Negara Tahun
POPi
POPj
REER
DIST
PDBj
EXPV
PDBi
D
1Singapur
a
2001
216.203.499
4.138.000
109
906
91.148.432.628
43.800.000
160.446.947.638
0
2002
219.026.365
4.176.000
107
906
90.582.818.234
45.400.000
195.660.611.034
1
2003
221.839.235
4.114.800
103
906
93.362.870.573
65.300.000
234.772.458.818
1
2004
224.606.531
4.166.700
102
906
109.336.483.914
91.500.000
256.836.883.305
1
2005
227.303.175
4.265.800
100
906
123.506.892.268
130.000.000
285.868.610.017
1
2006
229.918.547
4.401.400
101
906
139.125.048.812
229.000.000
364.570.525.997
1
2007
232.461.746
4.588.600
102
906
168.434.001.846
299.000.000
432.216.737.775
1
2008
234.951.154
4.839.400
108
906
166.792.256.695
343.000.000
510.244.548.960
1
2009
237.414.495
4.987.600
108
906
175.934.878.516
154.000.000
539.579.959.053
1
Lampiran 2. Transformasi Logaritma Natural (Ln) pada Nilai Masing-Masing Variabel Penelitian
Negara
Tahun
POPi
POPj
DIST
PDBj
EXPV
PDBi
Amerika
2001
19,19173065
19,46789080
9,70371135
29,95672685
19,45741763
25,80122918
Serikat
2002
19,20470267
19,47716878
9,70371135
29,99095016
19,77393525
25,99964742
2003
19,21746351
19,48576359
9,70371135
30,03700180
20,06933937
26,18188262
2004
19,22986068
19,49501843
9,70371135
30,09893419
20,34492940
26,27170703
2005
19,24179526
19,50423557
9,70371135
30,16188058
20,50510983
26,37879814
2006
19,25323566
19,51387810
9,70371135
30,21987478
20,76248655
26,62198586
2007
19,26423624
19,52338866
9,70371135
30,26734614
20,92211670
26,79219301
2008
19,27488820
19,53284731
9,70371135
30,28562131
21,16152077
26,95815596
2009
19,28531810
19,54161382
9,70371135
30,26028782
20,23387549
27,01405682
2010
19,29561157
19,54998287
9,70371135
30,30151482
21,17434146
27,28574784
Jepang
2001
19,19173065
18,66087019
8,65651991
29,05650252
18,23795911
25,80122918
2002
19,20470267
18,66319546
8,65651991
29,01250883
18,73549148
25,99964742
2003
19,21746351
18,66533527
8,65651991
29,09031944
19,05725757
26,18188262
2004
19,22986068
18,66567189
8,65651991
29,16913553
19,20913810
26,27170703
2005
19,24179526
18,66576581
8,65651991
29,15094468
19,19078897
26,37879814
2006
19,25323566
18,66563275
8,65651991
29,10275011
20,07890882
26,62198586
2007
19,26423624
18,66574820
8,65651991
29,10265091
20,30623409
26,79219301
2008
19,27488820
18,66522596
8,65651991
29,20983653
20,69692186
26,95815596
2009
19,28531810
18,66408139
8,65651991
29,24746276
19,91133512
27,01405682
China
2001
19,19173065
20,96373837
8,45356327
27,91228784
17,22233040
25,80122918
2002
19,20470267
20,97043837
8,45356327
28,00522089
16,84564426
25,99964742
2003
19,21746351
20,97666698
8,45356327
28,12630178
18,22222981
26,18188262
2004
19,22986068
20,98260630
8,45356327
28,28939274
19,07300593
26,27170703
2005
19,24179526
20,98848755
8,45356327
28,44501445
19,38766459
26,37879814
2006
19,25323566
20,99407130
8,45356327
28,62905805
20,11812953
26,62198586
2007
19,26423624
20,99929402
8,45356327
28,88208434
20,22896952
26,79219301
2008
19,27488820
21,00441789
8,45356327
29,13993730
20,51624167
26,95815596
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan
Negara
Tahun
POPi
POPj
DIST
PDBj
EXPV
PDBi
2009
19,28531810
21,00948184
8,45356327
29,23870878
20,30319458
27,01405682
2010
19,29561157
21,01431100
8,45356327
29,41113461
20,96228274
27,28574784
Singapura
2001
19,19173065
15,23572314
6,80863194
25,23575514
17,59514438
25,80122918
2002
19,20470267
15,24486441
6,80863194
25,22953039
17,63102266
25,99964742
2003
19,21746351
15,23010079
6,80863194
25,25975957
17,99450259
26,18188262
2004
19,22986068
15,24263491
6,80863194
25,41769597
18,33184953
26,27170703
2005
19,24179526
15,26614029
6,80863194
25,53956280
18,68304501
26,37879814
2006
19,25323566
15,29743323
6,80863194
25,65863900
19,24923256
26,62198586
2007
19,26423624
15,33908552
6,80863194
25,84980983
19,51595413
26,79219301
2009
19,28531810
15,42246539
6,80863194
25,89337976
18,85246316
27,01405682
Lampiran 3. Hasil Estimasi Variabel Penelitian dengan
Eviews
Dependent Variable: EXPV?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/17/13 Time: 18:27
Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4
Total pool (balanced) observations: 40
Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances
White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -19.65558 4.195926 -4.684445 0.0000 REER? -0.046675 0.008584 -5.437497 0.0000 PDBI? 0.215234 0.299795 0.717937 0.4778 PDBJ? 2.521586 0.387855 6.501359 0.0000 DIST? -2.707595 1.113744 -2.431076 0.0207 D? -0.008359 0.072867 -0.114715 0.9094 POPJ? -0.563986 0.558383 -1.010035 0.3198 Random Effects
Cross-section random 1.449513 0.9521
Idiosyncratic random 0.325100 0.0479
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.896819 Mean dependent var 1.380487 Adjusted R-squared 0.878059 S.D. dependent var 0.927978 S.E. of regression 0.324051 Sum squared resid 3.465290 F-statistic 47.80438 Durbin-Watson stat 1.525768 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
Lampiran 4. Uji Regresi Pada Masing-Masing Variabel Independen
Dependent Variable: REER?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:15
Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4
Total pool (balanced) observations: 40
Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances
White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 165.9882 81.97599 2.024839 0.0508
PDBJ? 23.53875 3.063180 7.684414 0.0000 DIST? -40.65759 8.630916 -4.710693 0.0000 D? -6.385239 3.234284 -1.974236 0.0565 POPJ? 0.686662 2.873888 0.238932 0.8126 PDBI? -14.91549 3.827337 -3.897093 0.0004 Random Effects (Cross)
Cross-section random 14.36117 0.8817
Idiosyncratic random 5.260501 0.1183
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.529232 Mean dependent var 11.91562 Adjusted R-squared 0.460001 S.D. dependent var 7.158664 S.E. of regression 5.260515 Sum squared resid 940.8825 F-statistic 7.644484 Durbin-Watson stat 0.854882 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000067
Unweighted Statistics
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: PDBI?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:15
Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4
Total pool (balanced) observations: 40
Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances
White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 10.48238 1.347438 7.779490 0.0000
PDBJ? 1.244566 0.141576 8.790798 0.0000 DIST? -2.142217 0.275453 -7.777065 0.0000
D? 0.108548 0.053991 2.010480 0.0524
POPJ? 0.061025 0.236298 0.258255 0.7978 REER? -0.024124 0.003684 -6.547490 0.0000 Random Effects (Cross)
Cross-section random 0.667675 0.9095
Idiosyncratic random 0.210659 0.0905
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.820735 Mean dependent var 2.633961 Adjusted R-squared 0.794373 S.D. dependent var 0.462893 S.E. of regression 0.209904 Sum squared resid 1.498031 F-statistic 31.13271 Durbin-Watson stat 0.372011 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: POPJ?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:16
Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4
Total pool (balanced) observations: 40
Wansbeek and Kapteyn estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 3.810747 12.31751 0.309376 0.7589
PDBJ? 0.004589 0.018482 0.248294 0.8054 DIST? 1.520379 1.467274 1.036193 0.3074 D? -0.005454 0.003292 -1.656841 0.1068 PDBI? 0.067569 0.013817 4.890288 0.0000 REER? 0.001066 0.000480 2.222342 0.0330 Random Effects (Cross)
Cross-section random 2.396535 0.9998
Idiosyncratic random 0.032170 0.0002
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.526409 Mean dependent var 0.079034 Adjusted R-squared 0.456763 S.D. dependent var 0.043177 S.E. of regression 0.031824 Sum squared resid 0.034433 F-statistic 7.558384 Durbin-Watson stat 0.197559 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000073
Unweighted Statistics
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: D?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:17
Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4
Total pool (balanced) observations: 40
Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances
White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -5.856758 5.037446 -1.162644 0.2531 PDBJ? -0.010715 0.054051 -0.198245 0.8440 DIST? -0.036914 0.107400 -0.343711 0.7332 PDBI? 0.304651 0.213486 1.427031 0.1627 REER? -0.011187 0.008014 -1.395989 0.1718 POPJ? 0.024010 0.014620 1.642250 0.1098 Random Effects (Cross)
Cross-section random 0.000000 0.0000
Idiosyncratic random 0.263252 1.0000
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.351176 Mean dependent var 0.900000 Adjusted R-squared 0.255760 S.D. dependent var 0.303822 S.E. of regression 0.262105 Sum squared resid 2.335768 F-statistic 3.680494 Durbin-Watson stat 1.605247 Prob(F-statistic) 0.009068
Unweighted Statistics
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: DIST?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:18
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Cross-sections included: 4
Total pool (balanced) observations: 40
Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances
White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 2.316947 0.345488 6.706307 0.0000
PDBJ? 0.184830 0.036690 5.037619 0.0000
PDBI? -0.128405 0.028935 -4.437645 0.0001
REER? -0.003890 0.001368 -2.843427 0.0075
POPJ? 0.250531 0.026973 9.288369 0.0000
D? -0.012972 0.022052 -0.588229 0.5603
Cross-section random 0.331525 0.9407
Idiosyncratic random 0.083226 0.0593
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.687132 Mean dependent var 0.665196
Adjusted R-squared 0.641122 S.D. dependent var 0.083103
S.E. of regression 0.049784 Sum squared resid 0.084267
F-statistic 14.93441 Durbin-Watson stat 0.160220
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.782683 Mean dependent var 8.405607
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: PDBJ?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:18
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Cross-sections included: 4
Total pool (balanced) observations: 40
Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances
White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected)
WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -3.498462 1.872305 -1.868532 0.0703
PDBI? 0.593016 0.085552 6.931611 0.0000
REER? 0.018152 0.003147 5.768472 0.0000
POPJ? 0.065830 0.234893 0.280257 0.7810
D? 0.066838 0.077686 0.860357 0.3956
DIST? 1.544024 0.403908 3.822717 0.0005
Random Effects (Cross)
Cross-section random 0.525771 0.9301
Idiosyncratic random 0.144084 0.0699
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.845209 Mean dependent var 2.450108
Adjusted R-squared 0.822446 S.D. dependent var 0.342240
S.E. of regression 0.144210 Sum squared resid 0.707086
F-statistic 37.13022 Durbin-Watson stat 0.465036
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
Lampiran 5. Uji Haussman pada Variabel Penelitian
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Pool: POOL03
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary
Chi-Sq.
Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 0.000000 5 1.0000
* Cross-section test variance is invalid. Hausman statistic set to zero.
** WARNING: robust standard errors may not be consistent with
Lampiran 6
. Uji Wald pada Variabel Penelitian
Wald Test:
Test Statistic Value df Probability
F-statistic 21.94402 (1, 33) 0.0000
Lampiran 7. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Ekspor Karet Indonesia (
Output
Eviews
)
Estimation Command: =====================
LS(CX=R,RANCALC=WH,COV=CXWHITE) EXPV? REER? PDBI? PDBJ? DIST? D? POPJ?
Estimation Equations: =====================
EXPV_USA = C(8) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_USA + C(3)*PDBI_USA + C(4)*PDBJ_USA + C(5)*DIST_USA + C(6)*D_USA + C(7)*POPJ_USA
EXPV_JPN = C(9) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_JPN + C(3)*PDBI_JPN + C(4)*PDBJ_JPN + C(5)*DIST_JPN + C(6)*D_JPN + C(7)*POPJ_JPN
EXPV_CHN = C(10) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_CHN + C(3)*PDBI_CHN + C(4)*PDBJ_CHN + C(5)*DIST_CHN + C(6)*D_CHN + C(7)*POPJ_CHN
EXPV_SGP = C(11) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_SGP + C(3)*PDBI_SGP + C(4)*PDBJ_SGP + C(5)*DIST_SGP + C(6)*D_SGP + C(7)*POPJ_SGP
Substituted Coefficients: =====================
EXPV_USA = 0.322389829403 - 19.6555810066 - 0.0466751508385*REER_USA + 0.21523364617*PDBI_USA + 2.52158617853*PDBJ_USA - 2.70759497836*DIST_USA - 0.008358938997*D_USA - 0.563985856347*POPJ_USA
EXPV_JPN = -1.30970967794 - 19.6555810066 - 0.0466751508385*REER_JPN + 0.21523364617*PDBI_JPN + 2.52158617853*PDBJ_JPN - 2.70759497836*DIST_JPN - 0.008358938997*D_JPN - 0.563985856347*POPJ_JPN
EXPV_CHN = 0.903899483882 - 19.6555810066 - 0.0466751508385*REER_CHN + 0.21523364617*PDBI_CHN + 2.52158617853*PDBJ_CHN - 2.70759497836*DIST_CHN - 0.008358938997*D_CHN - 0.563985856347*POPJ_CHN
