ANALISA HARGA DAN PEMASARAN UNTUK MENINGKATKAN PROFITABILITAS UKM KERAJINAN KULIT DENGAN SISTEM DINAMIK

(1)

ANALISA HARGA DAN PEMASARAN UNTUK

MENINGKATKAN PROFITABILITAS UKM KERAJINAN

KULIT DENGAN SISTEM DINAMIK

STUDI KASUS :

(2)

Laboratorium Sistem Pendukung Keputusan

dan Intelegensia Bisnis

Kurnia Sari D. S

5208100085

Pembimbing I :

Erma Suryani, ST, MT, Ph.D

Pembimbing II :

(3)

Latar Belakang Permasalahan

Permasalahan

Pemasaran

UKM

Analisa harga

dan pasar

UKM

Sistem

Dinamik

Meningkatkan

Profitabilitas

UKM

(4)

SISTEM DINAMIK

Karakteristik Model Sistem Dinamik, antara lain :



Dinamika sistem yang kompleks



Perubahan perilaku sistem terhadap waktu



Adanya sistem umpan balik tertutup



Adanya umpan balik ini menggambarkan

informasi baru tentang keadaan sistem, yang

kemudian akan menghasilkan keputusan

(5)

Rumusan Masalah

1. Apakah faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi harga (pricing)

dan pemasaran (

marketing

) UKM Dwi Jaya Abadi

Tanggulangin berdasarkan kondisi saat ini ?

2. Bagaimana model sistem harga (pricing) dan pemasaran

(

marketing

) produk kerajinan kulit berdasarkan kondisi

UKM Dwi Jaya Abadi Tanggulangin saat ini ?

3. Skenario apa sajakah yang bisa di pertimbangkan oleh

UKM Dwi Jaya Abadi Tanggulangin untuk meningkatkan

profitabilitas produk kerajinan tangan?

(6)

Tujuan dari pengerjaan tugas akhir ini adalah :

a. membuat model sistem dinamik yang sesuai

dengan kondisi UKM Kerajinan kulit.

b. membuat skenario yang dapat meningkatkan

profitabilitas UKM dari segi harga dan

pemasaran berdasarkan kondisi optimis, most

likely dan pesimis.

(7)

Sistematika Penulisan Buku TA

BAB I

PENDAHULUAN

BAB II

TINJAUAN PUSTAKA

BAB III

METODOLOGI PENELITIAN

BAB IV

MODEL DAN IMPLEMENTASI

BAB V

PERANCANGAN SKENARIO MODEL

(8)

Metodologi

Penelitian

Mulai Studi Literatur Survei Kasus (UKM Kerajinan Kulit) Pendefinisian Sistem Pembuatan Model Kausatik Sesuai dengan sistem nyata? Tidak Pengumpulan Data Ya Pembuatan model Matematis Verifikasi Tidak Validasi Ya Tidak Pembuatan Skenario Ya Pembuatan laporan Selesai

(9)

Causal Loop Diagram

diagram yang menggambarkan secara visual hubungan sebab-akibat yang

terjadi diantara variabel-variabel yang saling mempengaruhi dalam suatu sistem.

HR Payment

Marketing budget

fixed cost

variabel cost

+

Marketing Strategy

Strategic Position in SME

Market Share of UKM

Market Growth / GDP

+

₊

Price

Profit

Cost

+

Product Technology Life Cycle

+

Tax

Transportation

+

Raw Material Cost

+

Leather

+

Sales

Supply

Unit Price

Inventory

-Revenue

+

-+

+

Pricing factory

-+

+

₊

(10)

Pengembangan Model

HR Payment

Marketing budget

Fixed cost

Variabel cost

Strategic

Position in

SME

Market Share

Market Growth

Price

Pricing Factory

Profit

Cost

Tax

Transportation

Number of Promotion

Raw Material Cost

Leather

Number of Distribution

Number of

distribution in

Current

Sales UKM Competitor

Cash Cows

Dogs

Question Mark

Star

Unit Price

Unit Price Rate

Inventory

Supply rate

_{Sales rate}

Revenue

Fabric

Average Sales per

Distributor

Percentage sales

per distributor

Supply

Promotion

Transportation Cost

(11)

Persamaan Strategic Position in SME

Sub-model

Skala Strategic Position

0 < I <= 20 Market Share Scenario = j Question Mark -20 <= I < 0 Cash Cow Yes No Yes Finish Finish Cond fval-3 tval-1 Start Market Growth Development =i 0 <= j <= 50 Yes 50 < j <= 100 Yes Star No tval-2 Finish Dogs Finish No fval-4

(12)

Marketing Strategy Sub-model

• Distributor

• Promotion

• Transportation

Marketing

Strategy

• pemasaran

berkaitan

dengan dana

pemasaran

Marketing

Budget

(13)

Market Share Sub-model

nilai penjualan perusahaan dalam memenuhi

permintaan pasar akan suatu produk.

1) Market Share = (Sales UKM/ Total Sales UKM

Competitor)*100

2) Sales UKM Competitor = Sales UKM Competitor

= RANDOM NORMAL( 112 , 550 , 386.17 ,

(14)

Pricing Sub-model

menentukan harga produk kerajinan kulit untuk

mendapatkan keuntungan yang bisa diraih

1) Pricing factory = (Total Cost/Supply rate)

2) Unit Price = RANDOM UNIFORM(-0.65, 0.91 , 9)

3) Unit Price Rate = Unit Price

(15)

Cost Sub-model

Total Cost =

fixed cost+variabel

cost

Fixed cost = HR

Payment

HR Payment =

3.5e+006

Variable cost = Marketing

budget+Raw Material Cost

Raw Material Cost =

(((Leather5.34)+(Fabric5.34))*Sup

ply)

Leather = RANDOM

NORMAL( 1, 2 , 1.5 , 0.5 ,

1)

Fabric =

RANDOM

NORMAL( 225 , 505 ,

382.08 , 82.83 , 1 )

(16)

Revenue sub-model

pendapatan kotor yang diiperoleh melalui penjualan produk setiap bulannya.

Revenue = Price*Sales rate

Sales rate = Average Sales per Distributor*Number of Distribution

Average Sales per Distributor = (Percentage sales per distributor/100)*(Supply/Number

of Distribution)

Percentage sales per distributor = RANDOM NORMAL(0.28, 0.8, 0.54, 0.13, 1)*100

Supply = RANDOM NORMAL( 394 , 968 , 694.84 , 189.62 , 15 )

(17)

Profit Sub-model

pendapatan bersih atau keuntungan yang diperoleh

oleh UKM melalui penjualan produk nya.

1) Profit = (Revenue-Cost)-((Revenue-Cost)*Tax)

2) Tax = (0.5/12)/100

(18)

Strategic Position in SME

4

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 Time (Month)

Strategic Position in SME : Current

(19)

Grafik Supply & Sales

Supply & Sales

1,000

750

500

250

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 Time (Month)

(20)

Grafik Pricing

Pricing

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 Time (Month)

Pricing Factory : Current

(21)

Grafik Cost, Revenue and Profit

Cost, Revenue & Profit

60 M

45 M

30 M

15 M

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 Time (Month)

rupi

ah

Profit : Current

Cost : Current

Revenue : Current

(22)

(23)

(24)

Perancangan Skenario Model

Validasi Model

Scenario Model

Structure Scenario Parameter

Scenario

Question Mark

Scenario Star Scenario

Optimistic Scenario Most Likely Scenario Pessimistic Scenario Verifikasi Model Cash Cow

(25)

Skenario Struktur

No

Strategic position in

SME

Marketing

Stratgy

Strategy Breakdown

1 Question Mark

Build atau

Develop

Market Penetration

Product Development

Market Development

2 Star

Hold

Market Penetration

Product Development

Market Development

3 Cash Cow

Harvest

Price Development

Retrenchment

4 Dog

Divest

Retrenchment

(26)

Skenario Struktur

Build atau develop

Hold

Harvest

Divest

Product Development

Market Development

(27)

Skenario

Struktur

HR Payment Marketing budget Fixed cost Variabel cost Strategic Position in SME Market Share Market Growth

Price Pricing Factory Profit Cost Tax Transportation Number of Promotion Raw Material Cost

Leather Number of Distribution Number of distribution in Current Total Sales UKM Competitor Cash Cows Dogs Question Mark Star Unit Price

Unit Price Rate

Inventory Supply rate _{Sales rate}

Revenue Fabric Sales of Discount Item Discount Discount Price Percentage sales of inventory Revenue of Discount Item

Average Sales per Distributor Percentage sales per distributor Supply Price Scenario Pricing Factory Scenario Profit Scenario

Tax 0 Unit Price Scenario

Unit Price Rate Scenario Revenue Scenario

Cost Cutting

Market Share Scenario

Develop Product development Market Development Number of Distribution Development Strategic Position in SME Scenario Market Penetration <Time> Supply Development Sales Development

Inventory Scenario

Supply rate Scenario _{Sales rate Scenario}

Innovation Product Promotion Market Growth Development Marketing budget Scenario Variabel cost Scenario Transportation Scenario Raw Material Cost

Scenario Ratio of Profit Transportation Cost Transportation Cost Scenario Profit Minimum Profit Maksimum Sales UKM Competitor 1 Sales UKM Competitor 2 Sales UKM Competitor 3

Flow diagram sub-model

Question Mark skenario

(28)

Hasil Skenario Struktur

Profit Scenario

80 M

60 M

40 M

20 M

0

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36 Time (M onth)

rupi

ah

Profit Scenario : skenario

Profit Scenario : Current

Rata-Rata

Profit Awal

(rupiah)

Rata-Rata

Profit

Develop

(rupiah)

Rata-Rata

Ratio

Kenaikan

Profit

Mean

38,388,494

41,537,497

8.2%

Rata-Rata Profit Awal, Develop dan Ratio Kenaikan

(29)

Skenario

Struktur

Flow diagram sub-model

Star scenario

HR Payment Marketing budget Fixed cost Variabel cost Strategic Position in SME

Market Share Market Growth

Unit Price Rate

Revenue Fabric Sales of Discount Item Discount Discount Price Percentage sales of inventory Revenue of Discount Item

Cost Cutting

Hold Product development Market Development Number of Distribution Development Strategic Position in SME Scenario Market Penetration <Time> Supply Development Sales Development

Inventory Scenario

Scenario Ratio of Profit Transportation Cost Transportation Cost Scenario Profit Minimum Profit Maksimum

(30)

Hasil Skenario Struktur

Rata-Rata Profit Awal, Hold dan Ratio Kenaikan

Profit Scenario

100 M

75 M

50 M

25 M

0

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36 Time (M onth)

rupi

ah

Profit Scenario : skenario

Profit Scenario : Current

Rata-Rata

Profit Awal

Rata-Rata

Profit Hold

Rata-Rata

Ratio

Kenaikan

Profit

Mean

38,388,494

43,548,614

13.4%

(31)

Skenario

Struktur

Flow diagram sub-model

Cash Cow scenario

Unit Price Rate

Inventory

Supply rate _{Sales rate} Revenue

Fabric

Tax 0 Unit Price Scenario Unit Price Rate

Scenario Revenue Scenario

Cost Cutting

Harvest Price Development Retrenchment Number of Distribution Development Strategic Position in SME Scenario <Time> Supply Development _{Sales Development}

Inventory Scenario

Promotion Market Growth Development Marketing budget Scenario Variabel cost Scenario Transportation Scenario Raw Material Cost

(32)

Hasil Skenario Struktur

Profit Scenario

80 M

60 M

40 M

20 M

0

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36 Time (M onth)

rupi

ah

Profit Scenario : skenario

Profit Scenario : Current

Perbandingan profit awal

dan

profit pada harvest

Rata-Rata

Profit Awal

(rupauh)

Rata-Rata

Profit Harvest

(rupiah)

Rata-Rata Ratio

Kenaikan Profit

Mean

38,388,494

38,511,239

0.32%

(33)

Skenario

Struktur

Flow diagram sub-model

Dog scenario

Unit Price Rate

Revenue

Fabric

Cost Cutting

Divest Retrenchment Number of Distribution Development Strategic Position in SME Scenario <Time>

Supply Development Sales Development Inventory

Scenario

Promotion Market Growth Development Marketing budget Scenario Variabel cost Scenario Transportation Scenario Raw Material Cost

(34)

Hasil Skenario Struktur

Perbandingan profit awal

dan

profit pada divest

Profit Scenario

80 M

60 M

40 M

20 M

0

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36 Time (M onth)

rupi

ah

Profit Scenario : skenario

Profit Scenario : Current

Rata-Rata Profit

Awal

Rata-Rata Profit

Harvest

Rata-Rata Ratio

Kenaikan Profit

Mean

Rp. 38,388,494

Rp. 38,550,675

0.42 %

(35)

Analisis Hasil – Skenario Struktur

Skenario

Rata-Rata Profit Awal

Rata-Rata Profit

Skenario

Ratio Kenaikan

Rata-Rata

Profit

Question

Mark

Rp. 38,388,494

Rp. 41,537,497

8.2%

Star

Rp. 38,388,494

Rp. 43,548,614

13.4%

Cash Cow

Rp. 38,388,494

Rp.

38,511,239

0.32%

Dog

Rp. 38,388,494

Rp. 38,550,675

0.42%

(36)

Skenario

Parameter

Flow diagram sub-model

Optimistik scenario

Market Share Market Growth Price Pricing Factory Profit Cost Tax Transportation Number of Promotion Raw Material Cost

Unit Price Rate

Inventory

Supply rate _{Sales rate} Revenue Fabric Sales of Discount Item Discount Discount Price Percentage sales of inventory Revenue of Discount Item

Cost Cutting

Divest Harvest Develop Hold Product development Price Development Market Development Retrenchment Number of Distribution Development Strategic Position in SME Scenario Market Penetration <Time>

Supply Development _{Sales Development} Inventory

Scenario

Supply rate Scenario Sales rate Scenario

(37)

Hasil Skenario Parameter

Perbandingan profit awal

dan

profit skenario

Profit Scenario

200 M

150 M

100 M

50 M

0

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36 Time (M onth)

ru

p

ia

h

Profit Scenario : strategy\divest

Profit Scenario : strategy\harvest

Profit Scenario : strategy\hold

Profit Scenario : strategy\develop

Profit Scenario : Current

Profit

Rata-Rata Profit

(Rp)

Persentase

Perningkatan

Profit (%)

Current

38,388,494

0 Develop

42,153,069

9.79 Hold

44,575,575

16.10 Harvest

38,521,147

0.33 Divest

38,582,789

0.49 Persentase Rata-Rata Profit

(38)

Skenario

Parameter

Flow diagram sub-model

Most Likely scenario

Unit Price Rate

Inventory

Cost Cutting

Divest Harvest Develop Hold Product development Price Development Market Development Retrenchment Number of Distribution Development Strategic Position in SME Scenario Market Penetration <Time> Supply Development _{Sales Development}

Inventory Scenario

(39)

Hasil Skenario Parameter

Perbandingan profit awal

dan

profit skenario

Profit Scenario

100 M

75 M

50 M

25 M

0

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36 Time (M onth)

ru

p

ia

h

Profit Scenario : strategy\divest

Profit Scenario : strategy\harvest

Profit Scenario : strategy\hold

Profit Scenario : strategy\develop

Profit Scenario : Current

Profit

Rata-Rata Profit

(Rp)

Persentase

Perningkatan

Profit (%)

Current

38,394,444

0 Develop

39,955,556

4.07 Hold

40,936,111

6.62 Harvest

38,463,889

0.18 Divest

38,466,667

0.19 Persentase Rata-Rata Profit Most

(40)

Skenario

Parameter

Flow diagram sub-model

Pesimistik scenario

Unit Price Rate

Inventory

Cost Cutting

Divest Harvest Develop Hold Product development Price Development Market Development Retrenchment Number of Distribution Development Strategic Position in SME Scenario Market Penetration <Time> Supply Development _{Sales Development}

Inventory Scenario

(41)

Hasil Skenario Parameter

Perbandingan profit awal

dan

profit skenario

Profit Scenario

80 M

60 M

40 M

20 M

0

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36 Time (M onth)

ru

p

ia

h

Profit Scenario : strategy\divest

Profit Scenario : strategy\harvest

Profit Scenario : strategy\hold

Profit Scenario : strategy\develop

Profit Scenario : Current

Profit

Rata-Rata Profit (Rp)

Persentase

Perningkatan

Profit (%)

Current

38,394,444

0 Develop

38,411,111

0.04 Hold

38,416,667

0.06 Harvest

38,394,444

0.00 Divest

38,397,222

0.01 Persentase Rata-Rata Profit

(42)

Analisis Hasil – Skenario Parameter

Scenario

Type

Rata-rata pertumbuhan (%)

Sales

Profit

Optimistis

11.98

6.68 Most Likely

4.94

2.76 Pesimistis

0.05

0.03 Scenario

Type

Rata-rata pertumbuhan Profit (%)

Develop

Hold

Harvest Divest

Optimistis

9.79

16.10

0.33

0.49 Most Likely

4.07

6.62

0.18

0.19 Pesimistis

0.04

0.06

0.00

0.01 Hubungan rata-rata pertumbuhan sales dan profit

Hubungan rata-rata pertumbuhan profit develop,

hold, harvest, dan divest

(43)

Kesimpulan

1. Sistem ini dapat meramalkan profit UKM dalam sudut pandang strategi harga dan

pemasaran di masa mendatang dengan validasi hasil ≤ 5% untuk rata-rata dan ≤ 30

% untuk standard deviasi.

2. Berdasarkan hasil scenario struktur, peningkatan profit UKM ditentukan oleh posisi

strategic pasar UKM, diantaranya Question Mark, Star, Cash Cow, dan

DogPeningkatan profit dalam penggunaaan scenario struktur adalah sebesar 0,32%

hingga 13,4%.

3. Dari hasil scenario parameter (optimis, pesimis,

most likely

), terjadi peningkatan

profit darikondisi pesimis sebesar 0,03% hingga kondisi optimis sebesar 6,68 %.

4. UKM Kerajinan Kulit Dwi jaya Abadi dapat meningkatakan profit dengan strategi

harga dan pasar, diantaranya pengembangan produk (

product development

),

pengembangan pasar (

market development

), penetrasi pasar (

market penetration

),

peningkatan harga (

price development

), dan pemangkasan atau penghematan

(

retrenchment

).

(44)

Saran

1. Dapat dikembangkan dengan menggunakan produk selain tas kulit, seperti produk

sepatu.

2. Untuk penelitian selanjutnya, dapat digali lebih lanjut mengenai competitor, baik dari

segi penjualan, harga, pendapatan sampai dengan posisi pasar competitor untuk

mendapatkan hasil penelitian yang lebih optimal.

3. Agar lebih optimal, perlu diterapkan simulasi system dinamik dalam kurun waktu

lebih dari 3 tahun untuk membantu UKM dalam meningkatkan profitnya.

(45)

(46)

Daftar Pustaka - 1

1) Tu, Yi-Ming dan Ching-Yee Young.

A study on the System Dynamics

Modelling of Business Technology Management Decision Support

System..

Institute of Information Management National Sun Yat-Sen

University Taiwan.

2) Arifin, M. 2009.

Simulasi Sistem Industri.

Yogyakarta : Graha Ilmu, 2009.

3) Baker, Michael. 2008.

The Strategic Marketing Plan Audit.

s.l. : ISBN

1-902433-99-8. p.3, 2008.

4) Charles, W Lamb, Joseph, F Hair dan Carl, Mcdaniel. 2001.

Pemasaran.

Pertama. Jakarta : Salemba Empat, 2001.

5) Das, Subhas Chandra. 2011.

Management Control System.

New Delhi :

PHI Learning Private Limited, 2011.

6) David, F. R. 2009.

Manajemen Strategis.

Jakarta : Salemba Empat,

2009.

7) David, Fred R. 1998.

Strategic Management.

Philippines : Prentice Hall,

(47)

Daftar Pustaka - 2

1) Dr Jake Mitchell dan Alan Price. 2003. Economics: Principles in Action.

Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 : Pearson Prentice Hall, 2003.

hal. 111.

2) Hansen dan Mowen. 2005. Management Accounting. South Western :

Thomson, 2005.

3) Kajian Perilaku Upah Sektor Industri Dengan Metode System Dynamics.

Shofi, D. M. 2002. 2002, Jurnal TMI. 3 No. 1.

4) Kotler, Philip. 2004. Manajemen Pemasaran, Edisi Milenium. Jakarta :

Prenhalindo, 2004.

5) Law, A. M dan Kelton, D. M. 1991. Simulation Modeling and analysis

(2nd edition). New York : Mc GrawHill, Inc., 1991.

6) Multiple test for validation of system dynamic type of simulation models.

Barlas, Yaman. 1989. 1989, Europe Journal of Operational Research,

hal. 183-210.

(48)

Daftar Pustaka - 3

1) Porter, Michael A. 1985. Competitive Advantage: Creating and sustaining superior

performance. New York : The Free Press, 1985.

2) —. 1980. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for analyzing industries and competitors.

New York : The Free Press, 1980.

3) Potensi Jumlah Usaha Kecil dan Menengah Dalam Peranannya Menstimulasi

Perekonomian. Heatubun, Adolf D. 2008. 2008, Jurnal Organisasi dan Manajemen 4,

hal. 34-45.

4) Rangkuti, Freddy. 2004. The Power of Brand. Jakarta : PT. Gramedia Pustaka Utama,

2004.

5) Small and Medium Size Enterprises: Access to Finance as Growth Constraint. Beck,

Thorsten dan Demirguc-Kunt, Asli. 2006. 2006, Journal of Banking & Finance 30, hal.

2931-2943.

6) Sushil. 1993. System Dynamic A Pratical Approach For Managerial Problems. India :

Wiley Eastern Limited, 1993.